What's Wrong With Washington?

Offense has been hard to come by for the Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals, winners of 98 games last year, just can't seem to get it going here in 2013. The reigning NL East champions came roaring out of the gate with a 7-2 start, seemingly poised to run away with the division once again. But they've sputtered since then, slipping to third place in the standings and entering play today below .500 (29-30) with a minus-34 run differential.

On paper, the Nationals appear to have it all; plenty of starting pitching, a killer bullpen, great defense, and a lineup loaded with power and speed. Many preseason pundits predicted them to win the World Series. So what's gone wrong?

In a word: hitting, as in the lack thereof. Washington's spring struggles can be attributed to the team's offensive woes. After fielding one of the better offensive units in the National League last year, the Nats' lineup has been one of the league's worst this year. Only the moribound Miami Marlins are scoring fewer runs per game and getting on base less often.

Everyone's to blame here. Catcher Kurt Suzuki has been a black hole, but he had to play with Wilson Ramos on the mend. Adam LaRoche and Ryan Zimmerman got off to a painfully slow starts. Danny Espinosa was utterly helpless before (mercifully) landing on the Disabled List with a fractured right wrist. Ian Desmond has hit for power but is making too many outs. Denard Span has disappointed. So has Jayson Werth, who's gone bust since inking his undeserved seven-year, $126 million contract prior to the 2011 season.

The bench hasn't been much help either. Steve Lambardozzi, Tyler Moore, Roger Bernadina, Chad Tracy, and anyone else Davey Johnson throws in there hasn't hit a lick. With Washington desperately needing a spark from its reserves, the role players have come up empty.

In fact, the only National who's been consistently great at the plate is wunderkind Bryce Harper. The 20 year-old has put up MVP-type numbers when healthy, but got dinged up early on and is currently on the DL with a knee injury. If you think Washington was offensively challenged with Harper, just wait and see how bad things get without him. If you think things can't possibly get any worse, think again.

However, the Nats should be able to stay afloat (or at least tread water) because their starting rotation has been almost as good as advertised. Jordan Zimmermann, in his age 27 season, has emerged as an early Cy Young candidate. He's been even better than Stephen Strasburg, who was having an excellent season in his own right before going down with a lat strain. Gio Gonzalez hasn't been able to replicate his dominance from one year ago, but he's still a great number three behind Zimmermann and Strasburg. Before joining Strasburg on the DL, Ross Detwiler managed to keep runs off the board despite some ugly peripheral numbers.

The lone disappointment has been Dan Haren, who Washington hoped would bounce back after enduring the worst full season of his career in 2012. Instead, he's been even worse; he leads the majors in home runs allowed and his ERA ballooned to 5.45 after the New York Mets battered him last night. I don't think he's going to pitch this poorly all season, but it's clear that he's no longer the elite pitcher he once was.

He's not the only Nationals hurler who's struggling though. Their bullpen was lights-out last year but has seen its ERA rise by nearly a full run this year, from 3.23 to 4.13. New closer Rafael Soriano has been everything he was for the Yankees last season, but Washington's other relievers (specifically Drew Storen, Ryan Mattheus and Henry Rodriguez) haven't been quite as sharp. They'll be put to the test more with Strasburg and Detwiler on the DL, so it's critical that the relief corps pitches up to its potential.

There's a lot of unrealized potential on this team, which leads me to believe that Washington is going to rebound sooner or later. But given the loss of Harper, Strasburg, and other key regulars, I' don't see that turnaround happening in the near future. I could, however, see them getting healthy in the second half, hitting more as the weather heats up and making a run after the All-Star Break, so I'm not going to write them off just yet. It's still early, and there's a lot of baseball left to be played.

B.J. Upton Breaking Out

Upton is putting his slow start behind him

After an abysmal start to the season for B.J. Upton, he finally seems to be getting his act together at the plate. After batting just .145/.230/.245 with 63 strikeouts through the end of May, Atlanta's new center fielder is showing signs of life in the batter's box . Since the calendar flipped to June, Upton has four hits, including a pair of home runs, and four RBI in four games to briefly silence those clamoring for him to be benched. Not coincidentally, Atlanta won all four tilts.

Obviously four games (2.5 percent of the season) is a small sample size and doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. But for the ever-streaky Upton, this mini-hot streak could be a sign that he's about to go on a tear. Braves skipper Fredi Gonzalez gave him a few days off last week to clear his head, and so far the mental breather has proved beneficial for the slumping star.

I couldn't help but think of Dan Uggla, who joined the Braves as a free agent prior to the 2011 season and struggled mightily in the first half., batting .173/.241/.327 through the Fourth of July. But Gonzalez stuck with his struggling second baseman, and was ultimately rewarded when Uggla went off in the second half and finished with his typically strong power numbers.

Upton's in a similar boat; and I figured it was only a matter of time before the former first overall draft pick came around at the dish. Don't be surprised if he doubles his season home run total (he has six) by the end of the month and looks more like the player Atlanta thought they were getting when they signed him to the largest free agent contract in the organization's history.

And if he doesn't? Well, good thing the Braves have his more talented little brother Justin Upton.

Not Buying Pittsburgh's Hot Start

The Pittsburgh Pirates have been getting a lot of ink in the wake of their marvelous May (19-9). Despite dropping four of their past five, they still own the fourth best record in the National League and would make the playoffs as the second wild card team if the season ended today.

All I have to say is this; it's still early, and we've seen this movie twice before.

In 2011, the Pirates were leading the NL Central on the morning of July 26th. They promptly lost 12 of their next 13 and were the worst team in baseball the rest of the way, allowing more runs than every team except the Baltimore Orioles. Pittsburgh skidded to the finish line and wound up with 90 losses.

Last year, the Bucs were 16 games over .500 on the morning of August 9th. They were in second place in the NL Central, 2.5 games behindthe Cincinnati Reds, but held a 3.5 game for the second wild card spot. From that point forward, they were the worst team in the National League, going 16-36 down the stretch and blowing another shot at a .500 season.

The Pirates are no strangers to overachieving for a few months, only to collapse during the dog days of summer and remind the baseball world why they haven't had a winning season since Barry Bonds blew town after 1992.

Here in 2013, the Pirates have a new franchise outfielder--Andrew McCutchen--but the reason they're excelling is their top notch pitching, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. Ace of the staff A.J. Burnett has been the top strikeout artist in the National League, Jeff Locke has been an outstanding number two and Wandy Rodriguez has been a sturdy mid-rotation stabilizer. Francisco Liriano has rediscovered the form that made him an All-Star with Minnesota. Jeanmar Gomez provided solid starts in May before hitting the Disabled List with a strained forearm, joining fellow hurlers Jeff Karstens, Charlie Morton, James McDonald, and Jose Contreras.

In the 'pen, Jason Grilli (Joel Hanrahan's replacement) has emerged as baseball's best closer. His setup man, Mark Melancon, has been lights-out and has clearly put his awful year with Bobby Valentine's Boston Red Sox behind him. Middle relievers Justin Wilson, Vin Mazzaro, and Bryan Morris have all been excellent as well.

Still, I'm wary of Pittsburgh's postseason chances. The offense is mediocre, Locke and Liriano are bound to regress, and the bullpen is going to wear down. During my preseason preview I predicted another losing season for the Bucs, and I'm sticking to it.

Maybe this year will be different. It probably won't be.

Bay Bouncing Back

Bay, a massive bust with the Mets, has been worth every penny for Seattle

After three frustrating, injury-plagued, and disappointing seasons with the New York Mets, Jason Bay is back.

Well, sort of.

Bay, now a proud member of the Seattle Mariners after signing a one-year, one million dollar deal with them last winter, smashed two solo home runs at Target Field yesterday. His first multi-homer game since July 5th, 2011 gives him four big flies in his past five games and pads his batting line to a solid .239/.343/.479, which translates to a 132 OPS+. The 34 year-old leftfielder hasn't been this productive since 2009, when he landed a four-year, $66 million deal with the Mets after popping 36 homers and driving in 119 runs (both career highs) for the Boston Red Sox.

Bay isn't going to approach those numbers again, but he's proven himself to be an asset with the bat for a team that's been starved for offense in recent years. He ranks second on the M's in slugging and OPS (behind Kendrys Morales), and only Mike Morse has hit more home runs. If not for Mariano Rivera's return to glory, Bay might have an outside shot at winning Comeback Player of the Year.

But playing for the mediocre Mariners means few baseball fans outside of Oregon are aware of Bay's renaissance. Far from the spotlight of the Big Apple, Bay has thrived in his new surroundings and is proving that he still has some juice left in his bat. Left for dead when the Mets released him after he hit just .165/.237/.299 in 70 games with New York last year, Bay, like many washed-up sluggers in their mid-thirties (Eric Chavez, Vernon Wells, and Travis Hafner come to mind), has found a way to prolong his shelf-life by latching on to a new team and exceeding expectations.

Health remains Bay's biggest obstacle--he missed 198 games over the past three years--but if he can stay on the field he has a good shot at surpassing 20 home runs and re-establishing some of the value that evaporated during his trying tenure in New York. If he keeps hitting well, he might even luck into  a midseason trade that sends him to a contender in search of an outfield bat (i.e. the Athletics or Nationals).

Not bad for someone who was out of a job six months ago.

May MVPs

1. Miguel Cabrera (.379/.455/.767)
Cabrera is at it again after becoming the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years last season. The major league hits leader recorded at last one base knock in 26 of the 28 games he played in May, totaling 44 hits for the month and enjoying 13 multi-hit games. He also reached base in every game of the month save one--May 13th against the Houston Astros. What's more, Cabrera cranked out 12 home runs during the month, including three in one game against the Texas Rangers on May 19th, while knocking  in 33 runs. The reigning AL MVP, a one-man wrecking crew with the bat in his hands, can't be stopped.

2. Chris Davis (.364/.442/.768)
Davis followed up his monster opening month with an even better performance in May. After a slow start to the month in which he went 2-for-18, Davis caught fire and hasn't looked back. Crush supplied plenty of power for Baltimore's prolific offense last month, ripping 10 home runs and 10 doubles to hike his season slugging percentage up to .749--easily the best mark in both leagues--and maintain his long ball lead over Cabrera. He also supplied 22 runs and 22 RBI. At the moment, Davis appears to be the only obstacle standing in the way of Cabrera's bid for another Triple Crown and MVP award.

3. Domonic Brown (.303/.303/.688)
On the heels of an underwhelming April in which he batted .233/.309/.372 with three home runs, the Philadelphia left fielder broke through with a torrid May. Brown became hyper-aggressive at the plate, refusing to draw so much as a single walk in the entire month. That lack of patience didn't stop him from belting a dozen big flies, seven of which came during the month's final week, to surge past a cooling Justin Upton for the National League lead in home runs. The 25 year-old's power binge produced 25 RBI. He now sports a .272/.306/.549 batting line and is one of the few bright spots on an aging, underachieving Phillies ballclub. Brown's batting approach is not a recipe for success in the long run, but in the meantime it's helped him eclipse Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley as the team's top position player.

4. Mike Trout (.327/.409/.664)
2012's AL Rookie of the Year shrugged off a mediocre April and put up the kind of numbers that made him the deserving MVP one year ago. Trout scored 27 runs in May, a feat that undoubtedly had something to do with the fact that he reached base in all but two games last month. He also plated 21 runs and smacked 17 extra base hits. The 21 year-old was just as dominant on the basepaths, stealing eight bases in ten attempts. His recent hot streak sparked the scuffling Los Angeles Angels to an eight-game winning streak that helped the Halos make up some ground in the AL West.

5. Manny Machado (.355/.380/.556)
Machado emerged as a legitimate superstar during the month of May, earning comparisons to fellow phenoms Trout and Bryce Harper. The 20 year-old piled up 44 hits during the month on the back of 14 multi-hit efforts. 14 of those base knocks were doubles, giving him an ML-best 25 two-baggers on the season. That puts him on pace to break Earl Webb's single season record of 67, set all the way back in 1931. The talented third baseman is making quite a name for himself.