What to Expect From Jeter?

An old, hurt, and washed-up Jeter has reached the end of the line (CBS)

Yesterday Derek Jeter sent shock waves through the baseball world when he announced the 2014 season will be his last. Like Mariano Rivera and Chipper Jones before him, Jeter will get to have a great farewell tour in his last go-round through the big leagues, giving fans everywhere one last opportunity to celebrate him before he heads off into retirement.

The news got me thinking: how is Jeter's final season going to play out on the diamond?

I see 2014--Jeter's 20th season--following one of two possible scenarios for him and his Yankees. The first has him playing well and New York making the playoffs, because that's what has happened most years of Jeter's career. The Yankees have missed the postseason just twice since he debuted in 1995, and maybe it would have only been once if Jeter was healthy last year and New York didn't have to lean on fill-ins Eduardo Nunez (-1.5 bWAR) and Reid Brignac.

As for Jeter's individual performance, don't forget how good he was the last time he was healthy. He's only one year removed from hitting .316/.362/.429 and leading the majors with 216 hits. Jeter probably isn't that player anymore, even if he was in the not-so-distant past. Still, expecting a strong closing act from Jeter isn't that far-fetched. It could happen. Just last year, Rivera came back from a torn ACL to pitch brilliantly at age 43. Surely Jeter's hoping to end his career on a high note as well.

But most players don't, and it's unlikely that Jeter will be one of the rare exceptions. He's going to turn 40 in June and played only 17 games last year. Plus he was terrible in those 17 games, hitting .190/.288/.254. He's at an age when even the best shortstops cease to be effective, and given last year's injury woes it's hard to predict some combination of Jeter staying healthy and productive in 2014. The projection systems on FanGraphs expect him to play around 120 games while hitting .270/.340/.375, well below his career norms, and even those estimates might be too generous.

The optimist in me wants to believe the Captain can keep stinging line drives and using that inside-out swing to dump singles into right field for one more summer, that he can hit something close to his .312 career average and not be a complete disaster at shortstop and lead New York deep into October. I'm a Red Sox fan, and I'd still love to see him craft the fairy-tale ending to his storybook career.

But the logical side of me--the part that knows better--sees Jeter struggling to survive his last season as a shell of his former self. We've seen it happen too many times in every sport, even to the greatest Yankees like Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, and Mickey Mantle. Father Time catches up to everyone at some point, which is why so few athletes go out on top. Not everyone gets to hit a home run in his final at-bat like Ted Williams did.

So we shouldn't expect Jeter to, especially since he's averaged only eight home runs per season over the last four years.

2014 Red Sox Lineup Projections

Here's what I'm expecting in terms of fantasy production from the Red Sox starting lineup this year, assuming Stephen Drew doesn't make a last-second return.

C A.J. Pierzynski
His fluke 2012 notwithstanding, Pierzynski is as steady as they come. He'll be hard-pressed to reproduce what Jarrod Saltalamacchia did last year, but he's a capable fill-in who should still be able to hit a little bit.

44 runs, 10 home runs, 63 RBI, 0 steals, .268 batting average

1B Mike Napoli
Nap was exactly what we thought he'd be: a streak slugger who can carry the team for stretches but disappear during others. He struck out a ton though--187 times in less than 500 official at-bats--which doesn't bode well for a 32 year-old with hip problems. We've seen how similar sluggers like Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn, Dan Uggla and Jack Cust have fallen apart in recent years, but I think (hope) Napoli's bat still has at least one more good season in it.

74 runs, 21 home runs, 87 RBI, 2 steals, .248 batting average

2B Dustin Pedroia
After a injury-hampered 2012, Pedroia was back to his old self in 2013, batting over .300 and spraying lasers all over the park. His power did drop off a bit--his nine home runs were his fewest since his rookie season and a far cry from the 21 he popped in 2011--but that can be easily explained by his dramatic drop in fly ball rate. It's too early to tell if that was just a statistical blip or the beginning of a trend, but given his age (30) I'm inclined to think it's the latter. He still does everything else well, though.

103 runs, 12 home runs, 70 RBI, 18 steals, .304 batting average

3B Will Middlebrooks
Middlebrooks was terrible in the first half last year, playing his way out of the third base job he stole from Kevin Youkilis the year before. Light-hitting Jose Iglesias took over for him when he was demoted to Pawtucket in late June, but a spot opened up when Iglesias was shipped out in the trade that made Jake Peavy a Red Sock. The time in Triple-A seemed to do Middlebrooks some good, as he batted .276/.329/.476 after returning to the big club in August. I think his numbers will be much closer to (and maybe better than) that than the .192/.228/.389 figures he was sporting prior to his demotion.

66 runs, 25 home runs, 78 RBI, 7 steals, .260 batting average

SS Xander Bogaerts
John Farrell says Bogaerts is the team's starting shortstop at this moment, so it looks like the 21 year-old phenom is going to get every opportunity to prove himself at the big league level in 2014. He looked like a player wise beyond his years during the playoffs and should be ready to hit the ground running in his first full season.

83 runs, 16 home runs, 64 RBI, .281 atting average, 16 steals

LF Jonny Gomes
Gomes is easy to project because he puts up the same numbers year after year: 15 or so home runs, 50 RBI and a batting average in the .250 neighborhood. No reason to expect anything different from the quirky slugger.

44 runs, 14 home runs, 48 RBI, .252 batting average, 2 steals

LF Daniel Nava
There's no way Nava hits as well as he did last year, when he had the league's eighth highest batting average (.303) and fifth best on-base percentage (.385), both of which were fueled largely by his .352 BABiP. The tricky part, then, is predicting how far he's going to fall. He was a .243/.352/.379 career hitter before last year, so I think it makes sense to expect he'll fall somewhere in the middle this year.

62 runs, 8 home runs, 55 RBI, 1 steal, .276 batting average

CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
Bradley disappointed after a blazing Spring Training, looking overmatched and batting just .189/.280/.337 once meaningful games got underway. With Jacoby Ellsbury gone, he should have no problem winning the starting center field job from Grady Sizemore, who hasn't played since 2011. I think I'm higher on Bradley than most, probably because he's going to be 24 in April (near his prime) and because I don't want to put too much stock in last season's 100-odd plate appearances. Plus it's encouraging that he hit well in Triple-A and was better when Boston recalled him in September.

78 runs, 13 home runs, 53 RBI, 17 steals, .264 batting average

RF Shane Victorino
Victorino bounced back from the worst season of his career with one of his best in 2013. It's unlikely he'll repeat that success at age 33, but we shouldn't expect him to crash back to his 2012 depths either. I see him playing well, just not as well as he did last year.

88 runs, 13 home runs, 63 RBI, 24 steals, .277 batting average

DH David Ortiz
Big Papi continued to defy age in 2013, posting his best full season OPS since 2007 and anchoring the Red Sox lineup with 30 home runs and 103 RBI. He's showed no signs of slowing down as he gets deeper into his 30s, batting a sublime .311/.401/.571 over the last three years. He can't keep hitting that way forever, of course, but I don't believe he'll fall off the cliff in 2014, especially since he's playing for another contract.

82 runs, 26 home runs, 94 RBI, 1 steal, .295 batting average

Pitching Projections to come!

14 Bold Predictions for 2014

It's that time of year again. With Spring Training just around the corner, I offer you 14 bold predictions for the 2014 baseball season. You heard 'em here first!

1. Prince Fielder hits 40 home runs
Why this is bold: Fielder has not left the yard 40 times in a season since 2009, when he was 25 and in the heart of his prime. Soon-to-be 30 and coming off his worst season since his rookie year, Cecil Fielder's son seems unlikely to add 15 (or more) homers to last season's total of 25.

2. The Yankees finish last
Why this is bold: The Yankees revamped their roster by dropping close to half a billion dollars on pricey free agents such as Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, and Carlos Beltran. Full seasons from holdovers Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, and Alfonso Soriano can only help.

3. Miguel Cabrera spends time on the Disabled List
Why this is bold: The two-time MVP has never had a DL stint in his 11 year career. A model of health for more than a decade, Cabrera has played at least 148 games in each of the past ten years, averaging 157 per season during that time.

4. The Nationals will win 100 games
Why this is bold: The Nats and their former incarnation, the Montreal Expos, have never had a 100-win season in their 45 year existence, topping out at 98 in their out-of-nowhere 2012. They fell back to Earth a bit in 2013, winning "only" 86 games. Plus, parity is making it harder for teams to win 100 games these days, and they'll have plenty of competition from Atlanta within their division.

5. Alfonso Soriano hits less than 20 homers
Why this is bold: Soriano hasn't failed to reach the 20 homer benchmark since 2001--his first full season. What's more, his home run totals have increased in each of the past four seasons. Soriano smashed 32 dingers in 2012 and 34 in 2013--17 each with the Cubs and Yankees. His power stroke has held up into his late-30s.

6. The Pirates revert to their losing ways
Why this is bold: Pittsburgh won 94 games last year, and while they clearly overachieved, their Pythagorean record was still a pretty good 88-74. On top of that, they have the league's reigning MVP--Andrew McCutchen--about to enter his age-27 season surrounded by several talented young position players such as slugging third baseman Pedro Alvarez, speedy outfielder Starling Marte and the always solid/perennially underrated Neil Walker. The rotation is fronted by 23 year-old Gerrit Cole who looks poised to blossom into an ace.

7. Ryan Braun returns to form
Why this is bold: Braun is 30 and coming off a 65 game PED suspension for his involvement in last summer's Biogenesis scandal. Even before the suspension wiped out the second half of his season, he wasn't playing up to his usual standards. The former MVP had missed a month and struggled to hit for power, going deep only nine times in 61 games.

8. The Phillies win more games than they lose
Why this is bold: The Phillies lost 89 games last year, but it could (should?) have been worse: their Pythagorean record says they should've lost 96. They kept getting older this offseason instead of acquiring the young talent they so desperately need. Oh, and Roy Halladay, probably the best pitcher of the past ten years, retired.

9. Curtis Granderson becomes the next Jason Bay
Why this is bold: Injuries ruined Granderson's 2013, but he was an All-Star each of the two years before that. He topped 40 home runs, 100 runs and 100 RBI both years, the only player in baseball to do so. He's not far removed from being an elite slugger, and at 33 is still young enough that a big bounce back could be in the cards.

10. Yasiel Puig will be the National League MVP
Why this is bold: Puig is 23, and only seven position players in baseball history have ever been named MVP at that age or younger. One was Hank Aaron. Another was Willie Mays.

11. Nobody on the Tigers receives Cy Young votes
Why this is bold: Even without Doug Fister, Detroit still boasts one of the best rotations in baseball. Max Scherzer won the award in 2013. Justin Verlander won the award in 2011 and was second in 2012, when voters opted for David Price rather than let Verlander (rightfully) repear. Anibal Sanchez, 2013's AL ERA champion, placed fourth last year. In fact, at least one Tiger has earned consideration in each of the past five years.

12. The Astros have a better record than the Marlins
Why this is bold: Houston plays in the tougher division (AL West) and the tougher league in general. As bad as the Marlins were last year (100 losses), the Astros were significantly worse (111 losses). Plus, Miami has one of baseballs's best pitchers in Jose Fernandez and better sluggers in Giancarlo Stanton.

13. Jackie Bradley Jr. has a better season than Xander Bogaerts
Why this is bold: Everybody's predicting big things from Bogaerts, who shined during Boston's World Series run and appears to be on the brink of stardom. Not as much is expected from Bradley, who struggled in his first taste of the major leagues last year and was left off the postseason roster.

14. The Blue Jays win the American League East
Last year I went against the grain by saying the Blue Jays wouldn't win the World Series, when everyone had them ticketed for postseason glory. Coming off 88 losses and a disappointing last place finish, they hardly look like playoff contenders, especially after a quiet winter in which they didn't do much to improve their team. So why am I expecting a big turnaround in 2014? Like the 2012 Red Sox, Toronto suffered the double-whammy of injuries and under-performance from most of its stars last year, so they'll be better by simple positive regression to the mean. They pretty much have the same team intact--the one everybody picked to win the World Series last year--so I say they right the ship and win it all (one year late).

Baseball's All-Underrated Team: 2013

Here are, in my opinion, the most underrated and underappreciated players of 2013. None of them made the All-Star team, received MVP votes or won any major award to my knowledge. Most of them were trapped on bad team, played in small markets, or both.

C Jonathan Lucroy
Lucroy put together another great season for the Brewers, batting .280/.340/.455 with 18 homers, 82 RBI and nine steals in ten tries--a performance that was worth about three wins above replacement. Unfortunately, all anybody could talk about in Milwaukee was Ryan Braun.

1B Brandon Moss
After smashing 21 home runs in just 84 games and 265 official at-bats in 2012, Moss was able to stay on the field and prove his power was legit in 2013--his second season with the A's. He blasted 30 home runs, slugged .522, and set career highs pretty much across the board. Another great find by Billy Beane.

2B Daniel Murphy
Murphy's been consistently solid since debuting with the Mets in 2008, a rock at second base and in the lineup. In 2013 he played 161 games and batted second for most of the season, which helped him log nearly 700 plate appearances. All those trips to the plate resulted in some very impressive (and career-best) counting numbers like 92 runs, 188 hits, 13 home runs, 78 RBI, 273 total bases and 23 steals in 26 attempts. He also smacked 38 doubles and batted .286, contributing to an offensive game that was worth 3.6 oWAR according to Baseball-Reference.

3B Kyle Seager
Nobody seems to talk about Seager, but I guess that's what happens when you play for a lousy team from the Pacific Northwest. After breaking out in 2012, the Seattle Mariner took another step forward in his third big league season, setting career highs in numerous categories such as home runs (22), walks (68), bWAR (3.9), total bases (262) and all three triple slash stats (.260/.338/.426. Most of the 2013 Mariners couldn't hit for beans, but Seager can.

SS Jed Lowrie
The perpetually injured Lowrie stayed healthy for the first time, playing 154 games, and delivered his finest season to date. The Oakland shortstop cranked out 175 hits, including 45 doubles (second most in the league) and 15 homers while batting .290/.344/.446 (122 OPS+). His offense was worth more than four wins for the division-winning A's.

LF Starling Marte
Marte was a big reason why the Pirates improved their record by 15 wins from 2012 to 2013. He saw limited action as a rookie on that disappointing 2012 squad, but was a regular in 2013 and emerged as an All-Star caliber player. The 24 year-old's well-rounded game was worth 5.4 bWAR, thanks in large part to his speed (41 steals) and defensive excellence. Although he only walked 25 times, he got on base at a good clip (.343 OBP) by hitting for a good average (.280) and getting hit by 24 pitches. He also showed decent power with 26 doubles, 10 triples and 12 home runs. Andrew McCutchen deserved his MVP award, but I'm kind of surprised Marte didn't pull any votes.

CF Brett Gardner
It would seem impossible that Gardner is both a Yankee and simultaneously underrated, but that's what happened throughout his whole career. When you get down to it, he's not that far from Jacoby Ellsbury, but yet Gardner has never been an All-Star or won any major award. That trend continued in 2013, as he took over for an injured Curtis Granderson in center field and produced another solid season at the plate with several career highs, such as hits (147), doubles (33), triples (10--most in the AL), home runs (8), RBI (52), slugging percentage (.416) and total bases (224). Those numbers would have looked even better had he not missed the final two weeks of the season with an oblique strain

RF Will Venable
Venable was one of baseball's best kept secrets in 2013, enjoying an unexpected power surge at age 30 that was responsible for 22 home runs, 233 total bases and a .484 slugging percentage--all career highs. He also had the highest batting average of his career (.268), topped 20 steals for the fourth straight year and was worth more than three wins to a punchless Padres outfit.

DH Kendrys Morales
Morales acquitted himself well in his Mariners debut, belting 34 doubles, 23 home runs, and hitting .277/.336/.449 (123 OPS+). He gave Seattle almost exactly what he game the Angels the year before, which in this case turned out to be closer to three wins than two.

SP Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin bounced back from an injury-marred 2012 to go 14-10 with a 3.47 ERA, which worked out to be a 127 ERA+. He threw a career-high 197.1 innings with the lowest WHIP (1.26) and walk rate (2.8 BB/9) of his career. The Venezuelan also navigated the always tricky Coors Field, actually holding opponents to a lower OPS there (.683) than on the road (.686). The Rockies are thin on quality starting pitching, so they need Chacin, who was worth almost six wins a year ago, to repeat his success in 2014, which may be tough seeing as how his strikeout rate has tumbled to 5.7 K/9.

CL Steve Cishek
Miami's closer in the wake of their failed Heath Bell signing, Cishek was nothing short of excellent in 2013. He finished 62 games, most in the NL, and did so with a 2.33 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. In addition, he saved 34 games, struck out more than a batter per inning, and maintained a very good 3.36 K/BB ratio.

NBA Midseason Awards

Kevin Durant has finally surpassed LeBron as the sport's top player (ESPN)

I'm a few weeks late, I know, but better late than never!

MVP--Kevin Durant
I say it every year, but this is the year that Kevin Durant wins his first MVP award. But actually. KD's averaging 31 points per game on 51.3 percent shooting at the moment, both career highs if he can sustain them for the rest of the season. On top of that, he's become a better passer with Russell Westbrook out, averaging a personal best 5.3 assists per game. Mix in his strong rebound and good defense, and Durant's contributions add up to the best PER in the league. The MVP is his award to lose.

Runner-up--LeBron James

Rookie of the Year--Michael Carter-Williams
Despite missing 12 games thus far, Williams is miles ahead of anyone else from his rookie class. The 22 year-old point guard is one of Philadelphia's few bright spots, averaging 17.6 points and 6.6 assists per game. He also rebounds well for a point guard (5.4 boards per game) and gets lots of steals (2.2 per game). His shooting could use more polish, as he's hit less than 40 percent of his field goals thus far and is just a shade over 70 percent from the foul line, but it's clear he has the raw tools and athleticism to be a star for a long time.

Runner-up--Trey Burke

Defensive Player of the Year--Roy Hibbert
Hibbert's improved upon his already stellar defense from last year, averaging 2.4 blocks per game (third behind Anthony Davis and Serge Ibaka) and maintaining an NBA-best 94 DRating. Nobody protects the rim better than the 7'2 Georgetown product.

Runner-up--Serge Ibaka

Sixth Man--Nick Young
The Lakers have been woefully short on offense without Kobe Bryant, so much so that Young, who typically comes off the bench and plays around 29 minutes per game, actually leads the team in scoring. He's pouring in nearly 17 points a game and while he doesn't do much else, the Lakers have to be glad they have somebody who can put the ball in the hoop.

Runner-up--Manu Ginobili

Most Improved--Anthony Davis
The 20 year-old Davis has emerged as a force to be reckoned with in his sophomore year by improving on both ends of the court. He's embraced a larger role on offense as his playing time has increased, and his scoring has jumped from 13.5 points to 20.5 points per game without negatively affecting his field goal percentage (in fact, it's gotten better). He's also taking and making more free throws, always an encouraging sign from young players. The first pick of the 2012 draft has the NBA's fifth highest PER (26.7, up from his 21.7 showing as a rookie), most blocks, highest block percentage and most blocks per game. He's also a terrific rebounder, snaring 10.5 rebounds per night. The future looks bright for New Orlean's double-double machine.

Runner-up--Isaiah Thomas

Coach--Terry Stotts
The Blazers have enjoyed a remarkable turnaround under Stotts, who coached them to a 33-49 record last year. They're 35-14 as of this writing, good for the third-best record in the West. Stotts has leaned heavily on his young, talented starting five, and they've rewarded him. He's getting an MVP caliber season out of LaMarcus Aldridge, continued growth from last season's Rookie of the Year Damian Lillard, a career year from Wesley Matthews, improvement from Robin Lopez and more good things from Nicolas Batum. After a couple of lean years, Portland's reclaimed its proud status as one of the top teams in the Western Conference.

Runner-up--Jeff Hornacek