Beltran in Boston?

The MLB trade deadline is less than two weeks away, and the Red Sox are looking to add more firepower to baseball's best offense? Don't they have a $163 million dollar payroll and the second best record in the majors?  Didn't they just get Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez?

Jesus, aren't they still the favorites to win the pennant and possibly the World Series?  Does any of that matter?

The answers to those questions are yes, yep, sure, you bet and of course, but Epstein is still looking to do some last minute wheeling and dealing for Carlos Beltran, among others.  Given Theo's propensity for late July splashes--the man shipped away Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez, netted Jason Bay and Victor Martinez--maybe it's reasonable to assume that the guy just can't help himself.  Perhaps he's become a bit trigger happy, a little too eager to make some phone calls and push the big red button on his desk just for the sake of doing something, anything at the deadline.  It's also possible he just never learned to realize when you have a good thing, nay, a great thing, going and just sit on your hands when the end of July rolls around.  Or maybe, just maybe, he doesn't have an ounce of faith in this team, and neither should you.

I'm being facetious.  No team is perfect, not even this one, and the trading deadline is a great time to assess the squad and attempt to plug some holes before the stretch run, to seal the leaks that could eventually sink World Series dreams.  Theo's generally done an exceptional job at this; he saved the season in 2004 by overhauling the defense and his midseason moves always seem to work out, with Eric "Gag-me" Gagne being the one glaring exception from recent memory.  Sometimes staying the course can be prudent, and other times it will lead you straight into an iceberg.  Right now, Epstein is at the wheel and senses danger looming on the horizon.  He's looking at that potent offense and sees a black hole in right field with J.D. Drew. 

Drew's been brutal at the plate this year, but his above average defense means he basically has the value of a replacement level player so far (quick statement of the obvious--replacement players have not, are not, and never will be worth $14 million, not even in 2111 when the Albert Pujolses of the world will make more than $50 mil a year. If that number scares you, remember that I just threw out a figure based on a meaningless adjustment for inflation).  Can the Sox win in October with him? Probably, but would replacing him with Carlos Beltran improve their chances?

Definitely, and that's why Theo has his sights set on him.  Drew needs a change of scenery and is going to be gone when his contract expires after the season, but the sooner he can escape Boston's pressure-cooker the better.  Beltran, one of the game's best all-around players since he was named AL Rookie of the Year a dozen years ago, is enjoying a resurgence this year and could also use a change of scenery even though he says he wants to stay in the Big Apple and has a no-trade clause.  The most coveted outfielder on the market, Beltran is exactly what Epstein is looking for.  Unfortunately SI's Jon Heyman says the Phillies, the only team better than the Red Sox right now, seem to be the favorite in the Carlos Beltran sweepstakes at the moment, and it's very possible that he could be the difference maker in October given his ability to dominate a playoff series.  Philadelphia has a greater need for the six-time All-Star, since their offense has been shockingly average given their loaded lineup and they clearly miss Jayson Werth's right-handed bat.  The switch-hitting Beltran can provide extra pop with his .523 slugging percentage, solid run production and league-leading 30 doubles, so he'd be a perfect fit for the Phillies.

But what if Theo works his magic and Beltran finds himself in Boston?  It's a big what if, especially since up to ten teams have shown interest in him.  That's a lot of competition for one player, and I'm not getting my hopes up.  Let's have some fun with this thing anyways and explore five pros and cons of that possibility, however slim:

Pros
1. Despite the knee issues, his defense is just as good as Drew's based on baseball-reference's defensive WAR
2. He's one year younger than J.D. and, with 3.6 WAR, is a much more effective player
3. Boston, like Philadelphia, has a left-handed heavy lineup (although not as extreme) and replacing Drew, a lefty, with Beltran gives them more balance
4. He hits well at Fenway, with a career .327 average and ten extra base hits in 101 at-bats.  Taking him out of cavernous Citi Field gives him a shot at finishing the year with a .300 average, 25 home runs, 50 doubles and 100 runs/RBI if he can stay on the field and finish the season strong
5. He takes his game to another level in the postseason with a .366/.485/.817 Barry Bonds(on-steroids) slash line, plus eleven home runs in only 22 games.  The dude flat-out mashes when the bright lights shine

Cons
1. Beltran's been injury prone lately, as he missed half of his 2009 season and 98 games last year.  He went under the knife for knee surgery in between those two seasons and is no spring chicken at age 34.  There's some health risk here
2. Even if he stays healthy, his performance could suffer down the stretch.  He hasn't played a full season since 2008 and might wear down during the dog days of August
3. The Mets are rebuilding and trimming the payroll, so the asking price will probably be high in terms of young, affordable talent
4. He's a free agent at the end of the season, meaning Boston would have to give up prospects for what could ultimately be a rental player
5. With only three stolen bases so far, he's no longer the threat on the basepaths who posted double digit steal totals every year from 1999 through 2009

Beltran would be a welcome addition and an obvious upgrade over Drew, but I think the team is good enough as is and Theo shouldn't do (and won't--he's too smart and I trust him to do what's best for the team) whatever it takes to get him.  He might not go anywhere if the Mets can make a run now that Jose Reyes and David Wright are due back, and I'd be surprised if he spends the next few months racing toward the Pesky Pole to track down slicing line drives.  Still, anything can happen and if Beltran ends up in Beantown or the City of Brotherly Love he's a lock to make the playoffs for the first time since 2006.  His offensive numbers will benefit from hitting in cozier ballparks with better lineups around him, too, and that boost should give him some more bargaining power when Scott Boras negotiates another substantial payday for him this winter.

Just don't expect Theo to be the one footing the bill.