Red Sox Pitching First Half Review

Boston entered the 2011 with the same rotation from last year backed with a much deeper bullpen, thanks to offseason acquisitions Bobby Jenks and Dan Wheeler.  Both have disappointed, however, and overall the pitching has been just a touch above average when compared to the rest of the AL.  The Sox rank in the middle of the pack in ERA, saves, homers allowed, and walks allowed.  They do rank third in strikeouts and hits allowed, but are also dead last with one complete game courtesy of Cy Young candidate Josh Beckett.  When one considers Lackey and Matsuzaka's ineffectiveness, Wakefield's age, and injuries to top starters Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, these numbers don't seem so bad.  If Lackey can post a strong second half (as he did last year) and the rotation returns to health, the pitching should improve after the break. 

SP Jon Lester (AS)-Lester has quietly been the team's ace and most consistent pitcher since 2008, and turned in a fine performance in the first half.  He avoided his April struggles this year, getting them out of his system on Opening Day in Texas and ending April with a 2.52 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  Hit a rough patch in May but bounced back in June and pitched well into the break. His WHIP and ERA mirror last year's, when he finished fourth in the AL Cy Young race, and he's shown a bit more command by trimming half a walk off his BB/9 rate.  Still, there are indications that he has regressed a little from last year. His strikeouts are down a full batter per nine, both his H/9 and HR/9 are up by .5, and his FIP and LOB percentages are up, meaning he's benefitted from some luck so far.  His skills remain intact, though, and he's a strong bet to finish the season strong.  Lester hopes to resume throwing tomorrow, and it wouldn't be surprising if he only missed one start as he nurses his shoulder back to health.

SP Josh Beckett (AS)-Beckett is doing everything he can to make Boston fans forget his abysmal 2010 season.  Spurred by diminishing velocity and strikeout rates, he turned himself into a better pitcher and it shows.  The 2.27 ERA and 0.95 WHIP sparkle, as does his league leading 5.8 H/9 and 4.1 WAR (third most for AL pitchers), yet somehow he only has eight wins.  A force all season, Beckett has reformed a powerful 1-2 punch with Jon Lester and was the only Sox starter to avoid the DL.  Unfortunately, his peripherals indicate he's also been lucky so far and is due for some substantial regression in the second half.  His miniscule .225 BABIP and 5.4% HR/FB both scream luck, as does his 3.16 FIP, 3.70 xFIP, and unsustainable 82.2 LOB%.  He's good, but he's not this good, so that ERA should drift closer to three as the season wears on.

SP Clay Buchholz-His 2010 triple crown stats of 17-7 and microscopic 2.33 ERA made him look like an elite starter last year, but in reality he was extremely lucky and doomed to fall back to earth this season.  He has still pitched well, but he's not going to be the Cy Young candidate that he was last season.  After a rough April (5.33 ERA with more walks than strikeouts), Buchholz hit his stride and has allowed more than three earned runs in a start only once since the calendar flipped to May.  His peripherals are more in line with his career averages this year, and he should continue to be a solid number three starter once he returns from the DL.

SP John Lackey-The numbers are too horrific to be posted here and make his incredibly average 2010 season look like the Mona Lisa in comparison.  In fairness, he's struggled with personal issues off the field and spent most of May on the DL, and I'm rooting for him to turn it around in the second half.  Unfortunately, his skills appear to be in decline with his walks and strikeouts trending in the wrong direction.  It looks like he left his prime years behind in California when he signed that five year, $82 million dollar contract two winters ago.  On the bright side, FanGraphs say he has been unlucky thus far and he pitched great in two of his last three starts before the break, so there is some hope he can bounce back like he did last year.  He needs to start pitching better if he wants to avoid becoming the team's more expensive pitching equivalent of JD Drew.

SP Tim Wakefield-The 44 year-old looked done after last season, but he's pitched better this year and stepped up when Dice-K and Lackey went down.  His results accurately reflect his value so far, and he should continue to be a decent spot start down the stretch.  The active wins leader only needs two more to reach 200, and I hope he gets them.  Andrew Miller may steal some of his starts, but Wake will still be kicking around during the dog days of August.

SP Daisuke Matsuzaka-The Sox would be wise to trade Dice-K, who's still under contract through the end of next season.  Unfortunately, he has almost no value so we're probably stuck with him, unless Theo can convince some optimistic GM to forget the back of Matsuzaka's baseball card and take a chance on his World Baseball Classic heroics (Dice-K will have another chance to shine in the upcoming 2012 WBC).  Since a solid rookie campaign and an excellent sophomore follow-up, he's been absolutely dreadful.  In the 44 starts from '09-'11 he has a 5.03 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and averaged just over five innings pitched per start.  He's still only 30 years old and is young enough to turn it around a la Bartolo Colon and Erik Bedard, but he's just too wild and inconsistent. 

The 'pen-Don't let the 3.93 ERA and rising hit rate fool you; Papelbon still has nasty stuff.  His 12.5 K/9 is the second highest of his career and he's cut his walk rate in half from last season.  Paps hasn't lost a game yet after losing seven last year, and his FIP and xFIP suggest his ERA should be much closer to two than four.  Bard continues to prove why he's the closer of the future, as he's been lights-out with a 2.05 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and a strikeout per inning.  Aceves has pitched well and can deliver the occasional spot start, while Albers sports a nifty 2.55 ERA, a figure that doubles as his weight when you remove the decimal point.  Wheeler and Jenks have been bad with ERAs above 5 and 6, respectively, but overall the bullpen is stronger and more reliable than last year.