To Bedard or Not to Bedard?

The Red Sox did not get All-Stars Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn or Carlos Beltran to fill in for rightfielder J.D. Drew (15 Day DL with left shoulder impingement).  Theo didn't trade for Colorado ace Ubaldo Jimenez to replace ailing starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (60 Day DL with stress fracture in lower back, likely done for the season).  Boston didn't acquire Rafael Furcal to stabilize its perpetual revolving door at shortstop, nor did it obtain the services of Colby Rasmus (future star) or Derrek Lee (former star).

But unlike the Yankees (how in the world did they not get a starting pitcher?  Crippling mistake, Mr. Cashman), the Sox did make some moves at the deadline.   They brought in Mike Aviles, a 30 year-old middle infielder who quietly eclipsed a .300 batting average for the Royals in 2008 and 2010, and shipped out backup Yamaico Navarro and minor league reliever Kendal Volz.  This move is minor and unlikely to affect the team's success, but I like it because it adds some infield depth and insurance for the aging Marco Scutaro.  Volz wasn't doing anything special down on the farm and Navarro didn't help with his glove or bat, so Aviles looks like a small upgrade for the stretch run and should see some action when Scoots needs a breather.

What I really want to talk about is the coming of Erik "DL" Bedard, the onetime Cy Young award candidate who has plenty of talent but lacks durability.  After finishing fifth in the voting as an Oriole back in 2007, Baltimore sold high to the Mariners for five players, including current star Adam Jones.  The crafty southpaw (who missed September of '07 with a strained oblique-just a harbinger of wounds to come) started only fifteen games in 2008, then fifteen more in 2009 for the Ms.  He may have possessed the best curve in baseball (according to Kevin Millar), but the guy couldn't even make it into August in either campaign.  Bedard missed all of 2010 rehabbing the torn labium in his pitching shoulder from the previous season, then promptly lost his first four starts in 2011 as he shook off the rust.   Ebay suddenly regained ace form and pitched like his old self over the next two months, compiling a sterling 1.77 ERA and impressive 68/15 K/BB rate across a span of eleven starts.  After completing his obligatory DL stint (knee injury) in July, he failed to get out of the second inning against the Rays in his return, a game played under the watchful eyes of Epstein's scouting minions.

Disregarding the shaky outing, Boston went ahead and took a chance on a Bedard rental, dumping four minor leaguers in a three team trade with the hapless Mariners and Dodgers.  The Red Sox were reportedly looking at fellow free-agent-to-be Rich Harden as well, but his shaky health history scared off the team doctors (who had more faith in the brittle Bedard). 

Two injury prone starters with undeniable talent; did Theo make the right move for his summer rental?  Let's compare their stats, but note that Harden has only started five games wheras Bedard started sixteen, so Harden's sample size is much smaller.  To compensate, I relied on rate statistics instead of counting stats.

Bedard 3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 108 ERA+, 8.6 K/9, 2.9 K/BB
Harden 4.30 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 94 ERA+, 9.2 K/9, 3 K/BB

Pretty close, but a slight edge goes to Bedard based on ERA and ERA+ (adjusted for ballpark).  FanGraphs indicates Bedard's numbers accurately reflect his performance thus far, while also indicating Harden may have been a tad unlucky. Harden is two and a half years younger and tends to pitch better in the second half, but on the other hand he was atrocious in his two career starts at Fenway.  Bedard seems to wear down in the second half (that is, when he actually pitches) and hasn't thrown well at Fenway (historically a graveyard for lefties like him) either, so they seem to be a wash based on their stats and circumstances.  Based on this season alone, I like Bedard a little bit more though and think Theo made the correct decision.  Harden's been pretty brutal the past three years and has always played for teams in the offensively weaker NL Central and AL West.  Bedard is AL Beast battle-tested from his years with Baltimore, so he know's a thing or two about the powerful division's deep lineups.

His first start for the Sox is Thursday against the scuffling Tribe, who shouldn't pose too much of a threat.  Luckily, for him, it's almost impossible for him to do much worse than he did his last time out, but he might nieed another start or two as he looks to find his rhythm.