Pages

Monday, October 17, 2011

2011 World Series Preview

The World Series starts Wednesday, and six and a half months of regular season and playoff baseball have whittled down the 30 major league teams to just two: the St. Louis Cardinals and the Texas Rangers.  I'm guessing no one in their right mind saw this matchup coming, not when the Phillies and Red Sox seemed destined for October glory and, if not them, then the Yankees or Giants or Brewers.  But alas, this World Series won't pit Roy Halladay against Jon LesterAdrian Gonzalez won't get to take any hacks against Cliff Lee, just as Ryan Howard won't dig in against Josh Beckett.  I guess they're right when they say great teams are made on the diamond, not on paper.

Texas just so happens to be a great team on paper and made the World Series last year, where they fell to Tim Lincecum, Edgar Renteria and Brian Wilson, so they're in familiar territory.  After battling the Angels all season long, they managed to pull away during the season's final weeks and finished the year with a commanding ten game lead.  Their lineup, stacked from top to bottom, is clearly their strength, but they have decent defense and pitching as well.

St. Louis, whom no one gave much of a chance this year after they lost 20 game-winner Adam Wainwright for the season back in February, last made the trip five years ago, when they snuck into the postseason as an 83 win squad and ended up as the last team standing.  Declared clinically dead little more than a month ago, they rallied as the Braves wilted down the stretch to capture the NL Wild Card and take their chances in October as the team with the fewest regular season victories.  But before you write them off as overachievers who have no business being anywhere near this series, remember that they did lead the Senior Circuit in runs, hits, total bases, and the three efficiency averages (plus OPS) while the Rangers only topped the AL in two categories; batting average and shutouts.

So here they are, two slugging teams from middle America pitted against each other on baseball's biggest stage.  Only one will get to wear those shiny rings next year, and I'm putting my money on the Rangers.  I'll use a position by position comparison to explain why.

Catcher
St. Louis has a formidable backstop in Yadier Molina, an All-Star each of the past three seasons and recipient of three consecutive Gold Gloves.  The youngest member of the catching Molina trio (and also the best) had always been better with the glove than the stick, but this year he was an asset at the dish after setting career highs in runs, hits, doubles, home runs, RBI, batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ and total bases.  Another plus; he hits significantly better in the postseason and posted gaudy .412/.500/.529 rates in the '06 Series While Mike Napoli is a liability behind the plate and between the bases, he more than makes up for these deficiencies with his thunderous stick.  Like Molina, he enjoyed a breakout season in 2011 by setting career highs in runs, hits, home runs, RBI, the three triple slash stats, OPS, OPS + and total bases.  The slugging catcher has blossomed in Texas and his .320/.414/.631 rates resemble a prime year from Alex Rodriguez's statsheet. 
Advantage: Rangers, but it's close.  Molina is the more complete player, but Napoli is such a superior hitter that his bat negates Molina's advantage on defense and the basepaths.  Offense is generally at a premium in October, so I'll take the catcher with 30 big flies and 1.046 OPS every day and twice on Sundays.

First Base
Regardless of who's manning first for the Rangers, be it Mitch Moreland or Michael Young, he can not compete with the incomparable Albert Pujols
Advantage: Cardinals, not close

Second Base
Nick Punto and Ryan Theriot (candidate for the David Eckstein effect) have taken over the reins from Skip Schumaker, but neither can hold a candle to keystone stud Ian Kinsler, who scored 121 runs and just turned the 30/30 trick for the second time in three years.
Advantage: Rangers, not close

Third Base
NLCS MVP David Freese is better than most people give him credit for, and I'll bet you didn't know he demolished Milwaukee pitching with three doubles, three long balls and a scorching .545/.600/1.091 line, but Adrian Beltre has been one of the best two-way players at the hot corner (along with A-Rod, Chipper Jones, David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Zimmerman, and Evan Longoria) over the past decade.  He also enjoyed a three-homer game during the Game Four clincher in the ALDS against the Rays.
Advantage: Rangers, closer than you would think

Shortstop
Rafael Furcal has had trouble staying on the field recently, managing to appear in more than 100 games just once during the past four seasons and becoming so frustrated this year that he reportedly considered retirement.  At this point the former NL Rookie of the Year is a shell of his former self. Elvis Andrus, on the other hand, is a 23 year-old on the upswing who set career highs across the board in 2011.  Like Furcal he lacks power and is rather ordinary with the bat, but unlike his counterpart he's a plus defender and possesses excellent speed.  Andrus can contribute much more than Furcal and provides plenty of energy, which can always help boost a club that's been playing baseball every day for seven months.
Advantage: Rangers, not too close

Outfield/DH
The Cardinals boast a strong outfield of 2007 NL MVP runner-up Matt Holliday, NL Comeback Player of the Year Lance Berkman, and Jon Jay (career .298 hitter).  35 year-old Berkman should see some time at DH given his atrocious fielding, so that could free up some more playing time for Allen Craig.  The Rangers are just as fearsome with ALCS MVP/the-hottest-hitter-on-the-planet Nelson Cruz, 2010 AL MVP Josh Hamilton and the always solid David MurphyMichael Young figures to DH along with Napoli when Yorvit Torrealba suits up.  Honestly, both outfields are loaded and choosing between them would be splitting hairs.  Texas has a younger group that is also more injury prone.  I hate to cop out with a tie, but they're dead even. You take one and I'll take the other.
Advantage: Tie

Starting Rotation
St. Louis boasts a legitimate ace with Chris Carpenter, but the rotation after that is a mixed bag with Edwin Jackson, Jaime Garcia and Kyle Lohse.  Texas lacks a true ace, but its rotation is much more balanced with C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland and Matt Harrison.  Interestingly, St. Louis has just one southpaw (Garcia) whereas Texas has three (Lewis is the outlier).  I don't want to know what the Cards would be willing to do to have Adam Wainwright back, because it could literally be anything.
Advantage: Rangers, but neither side has great frontline starters

Bullpen
St. Louis has a solid 'pen with Octavio Dotel, Fernando Salas, Lance Lynn, Mitchell Boggs, and Jason Motte closing out games.  Tony LaRussa has tinkered and juggled with his relievers all season long, so hopefully his players finally understand and embrace their roles.  The Rangers' pen looks shakier on paper, but pitched quite effectively during the LCS.  Set-up man Mike Adams and sophomore closer Neftali Feliz are superb and Texas has more proven lefthanded relievers, but I don't trust Darren Oliver or Scott Feldman in the middle innings.
Advantage: Cardinals, but it's close

Bench
Neither team has a great bench, so I'll call it a wash.

Well, all signs certainly point to Texas winning its first World Series in franchise history.  The Cardinals are a great Cinderella story, but Pythagorean W-L pegs them as an 88 win team (by comparison Texas is a 98 win team), which just isn't good enough to survive October.  St. Louis has the benefit of homefield advantage, but I'm going to say the Rangers win in five.

No comments:

Post a Comment