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Sunday, May 20, 2012

Weird Year for Catchers

2012 has been a weird year for catchers.  What I mean by that is several established backstops have been nothing short of terrible, while relative no names have come out of nowhere and ranked among the best hitters at the position. A few big name backstops such as Yadier Molina, Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, and Matt Wieters have met or exceeded expectations, but for the most part it seems that everybody else has deviated wildly from their career norms.  Let's look at the overachievers, underachievers and the guys in between.

Pleasant surprises

J.P. Arencibia (.250/.285/.483)
More of the same from Arencibia; plenty of pop and strikeouts, with walks few and far between (sounds like Mark Trumbo).  But among AL catchers, only Wieters has more homers and A.J. Pierzynski is the only one with more runs batted in.  After an ice cold April Arencibia has caught fire in May along with Jose Bautista, bashing six of his seven home runs and posting a gaudy 1.083 OPS.  Enjoy it while it lasts, because it's only a matter of time before he endures another extended dry spell.

A.J. Ellis (.333/.460/.510)
He has a higher batting average than Andre Ethier and a better OBP than Matt Kemp.  Up until this year the 31 year-old was a backup catcher with about half a season of MLB experience under his belt, so he's making the most of the increased playing time.  His superb on base skills are nothing new, but you always have to be skeptical when a player dramatically improves in his early thirties.  Read: he'll fall back to Earth eventually.

Jonathan Lucroy (.330/.381/.496)
With most of Milwaukee's position players not named Ryan Braun or Corey Hart struggling, Lucroy's hot streak has been a pleasant surprise.  He's cut down on his strikeouts and despite not homering in May, he's batting a robust .377/.406/.525 for the month with hits in all but two games.  Now I can see why Matthew Berry likes him so much.

A.J. Pierzynski (.301/.338/.485)
He's hit .300 five times already in his career, so the nice batting average isn't a shocker.  But after averaging just nine home runs, 52 RBI, and a .397 SLG. over his past two seasons, it looked like his power was diminishing with age.  Now the 35 year-old is leading all AL backstops in ribbies.  Go figure.  For what it's worth, his career highs in the power categories are 18 big flies, 77 RBI and a .464 slugging, all of which are in range.

Carlos Ruiz (.358/.407/.600)
With Ryan Howard and Chase Utley on the shelf and Jimmy Rollins scuffling, Ruiz has picked up the slack for the fallen stars and then some.  He's leading all catchers in just about every category except for home runs, OBP steals and is on pace to smash his previous career highs.  Ruiz has always been overshadowed by his more talented teammates even though he's the only catcher in either league to receive MVP consideration in each of the past two seasons.  With fourteen hits in his past nine games, he's shown no signs of slowing down, but obviously he's not going to keep hitting like Mike Piazza for the rest of the year. 

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.283/.308/.566)
Was mediocre at best in his Boston debut, but looks much more comfortable this year and has been on fire since the end of April.  At age 27, is he finally developing into the player many projected him to be?  His game calling skills are still questionable, but one thing's for sure; he's hitting a heck of a lot better than Jason Varitek would be if he decided to hang on for another year.  Catchers tend to develop at a slower pace than other position players, but this is going to be Salty's long-anticipated breakout campaign.

In the middle--These guys aren't playing as well as they could be, but at least they've been productive:

Brian McCann (.260/.336/.433)
All three triple slash stats are well below his career rates, but with six home runs and 24 RBI he's supplying his typically strong power numbers from the heart of Atlanta's order.  He also has more walks than strikeouts at the moment, something he's never been able to maintain over the course of a full season.

Miguel Montero (.260/.358/.351)
The power dropoff is concerning (just two home runs after smashing 18 a year ago), but he's walking more than ever before and has knocked in a team best 21 runs.  The Diamondbacks lineup has been crippled by Chris Young's injury and Justin Upton's slow start, so Montero's timely hitting is especially valuable.  The home runs will start to come during the hot Arizona summer.

Mike Napoli (.244/.333/.457)
An obvious regression candidate following his insane .320/.414/.631 performance last year (fueled by a monster second half), his numbers have returned to their 2006-'10 levels for now.  He's still hitting for plenty of power, though, and should approach the 30 home runs he cranked out last year if he stays healthy.  His stats should only improve throughout the summer once he can start taking advantage of the Arlington heat.

Disappointments

Alex Avila (/218/.298/.382)
Avila's breakout last season helped him make the All-Star team, win a Silver Slugger and finish twelfth in the MVP race ahead of more established stars such as CC Sabathia, Josh Hamilton, and Mark Teixeira, and effectively turning Victor Martinez into a full-time DH.  This year he's regressed to his 2010 levels (so has Jhnonny Peralta), when he batted .228/.316/.340 in 104 games.  With V-Mart out for the season his playing time is secure, and I think he'll eventually find the middle ground.

John Buck (.186/.307/.351)
Aside from his pit stop in Toronto two years ago, when he slugged 20 home runs and made the All-Star team, Buck has always been supbar with the bat because of his low OBP figures and high strikeout totals.  But he's never been this bad.  Just put him on the long list of struggling Miami Marlins with Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison, Josh Johnson and Heath Bell.  He's walking more, but he'll be hard-pressed to post decent power numbers in Miami's new ballpark

Nick Hundley (.170/.234/.277)
Was one of the few bright spots for a punchless Padres lineup last year when the then 27 year-old broke out by batting .288/.347/.477, good for a 132 OPS+ in half a season's worth of games.  San Diego still can't buy a run, only now Hundley isn't hitting, either.  Not to be confused with teammate Chase Headley, one of the few Padres who can hit.

Russell Martin (.170/.320/.320)
Martin was solid in his Yankees debut last year, when he replaced Jorge Posada as the everyday catcher, made the All-Star team and enjoyed his best season since 2008.  Typically a strong starter who fades during the summer, Martin has been uncharacteristically abysmal in the early going.  Lucky for him, Jesus Montero is over 3,000 miles away in Seattle, so he doesn't have to worry about losing playing time.  With Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez and Robinson Cano off to slow starts, too, Martin hasn't had to take too much heat from the press.

Joe Mauer (.275/.383/.380)
Mauer's numbers look eerily similar to the .287/.360/.368 line he put up last year while battling bilateral leg weakness.  He has just one home run so far and has already bounced into a major league leading nine double plays.  Mauer Power's been a shell of his former self since signing that eight year, $184 million contract extension he before last season, a deal that only looks worse with each passing day.  I thought he'd bounce back this year, but it just hasn't happened.  His track record is too excellent to ignore, though, so I wouldn't be surprised if he turns it around soon.

Miguel Olivo (.210/.229/.346)
From 2006 through 2011 he averaged 17 home runs, 57 RBI and a .433 slugging percentage, pretty decent power figures for a catcher.  With just three homers and seven RBI he's not hitting this year, and newcomer Jesus Montero (whose OPS is nearly 600 points higher when he catches instead of DH'es), eleven years his junior, is cutting into his playing time. 

Geovany Soto (.161/.250/.301)
Many were hoping that the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year would continue his every-other-year trend with a strong 2012 following a down 2011, but instead he's gotten even worse.  The only positive sign is that he's cut way down on his strikeouts, but it looks like Soto and the Cubbies are headed for another disappointing season in the Windy City. 

Kurt Suzuki (.224/.258/.288)
After averaging 14 home runs per season over the past three years, Suzuki has yet to go yard in 2012.  He may be suffering from the Russell Martin effect that follows overuse, since he played in 148 games in 2008, followed by 147 in '09.  His numbers have fallen off steeply ever since, and it's possible that he's already worn down at the age of 28.  Then again the A's don't hit, so he fits right in.

Also worthy of consideration; Jose Molina, Rod Barajas, Chris Ianetta

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