Thoughts on Game 7

After a 94-90 Game 5 Celtics win down in Miami that was just as thrilling as it was improbable, hopes were high that this aging Boston squad would close out the stunned Heat to advance to the team's third NBA Finals appearance in its last five seasons.  Unfortunately, that didn't happen, as LeBron James put on his mean face and delivered a playoff performance for the ages to quiet a raucous TD Garden crowd.  The C's did their part, making careless turnovers and missing scores of open looks in what became a 98-79 drubbing.  This hotly contested series, now evened at three games apiece, returns to South Beach tonight for a do-or-die Game 7 with the potent Oklahoma City Thunder lying in wait to challenge the victors.

Thanks for the memories

But no matter what happens tonight, it's been a memorable season for the Celtics.  From their rocky start that led many to give up on the team and believe GM Danny Ainge would trade away the Big Three, to their second half surge and exciting playoff battles with the Hawks, Sixers and Heat, this team has taken a long, winding journey on the NBA rollercoaster.  They've been the underdogs all year long; too old, too injured, too tired.  But even as everyone doubted them, they never quit and they never went away.  To get here this team had to overcome its fair share of adversity, fight through pain and fatigue.  It had to survive a lockout shortened season and postseason with a thin bench depleted by injuries to Allen, Rondo, Jermaine O'Neal, Jeff Green, and Chris Wilcox.  That's why I think it's safe to say that they've far exceeded everybody's expectations, and like the 1967 Red Sox they don't have to win the championship to validate their successful season.  They've already done more than enough.  At this point these guys are playing with house money, so beating the Heat (and perhaps causing Pat Riley to dismantle their core) would just be icing on the cake.  All the pressure is on Miami; the Celts are just along for the ride.

And if Ainge does break them up this summer, then we can sit back and appreciate this last stand.  But for now, they're still breathing.  Sure, they're still the underdogs, but by now they're used to it.  I don't know what to expect tonight, so I'm prepared for just about anything.  The Heat could crumble.  Boston might get blown out again.  As Kevin Garnett himself once declared, "Anything is possible."

Here are some of my thoughts on tonight's game:
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-This game will mark the seventh Game 7 for Boston since Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen joined forces in 2007.  They are 4-2.  By comparison, the Miami Heat have played just six Game 7s in the entire history of their franchise, which was founded in 1988.  Let's hope experience counts for something.

-Miami's Big Three has never played a Game 7 together, and have just one Game 7 win (courtesy of Wade) combined.

-No way LeBron James repeats that performance, the first 45-15-5 performance in a playoff game since Wilt Chamberlain posted those stats back in 1964.  I say this with confidence because LBJ was drilling some tough, contested shots from the perimeter; nine times out of ten if you can keep him out of the paint and turn him into a jump shooter than you will greatly limit his effectiveness, as he's an average shooter at best who really thrives when he's barreling into the lane.  King James has been so consistently incredible in this series (he's dropped at least 25 points every game, something nobody's done against the Celtics since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the 1974 postseason) that it wouldn't surprise me if he finally has an "off" night where he gets an empty 20 points and doesn't seem to be involved, but it's much more likely that he continues to stuff the stat sheet and finishes with around 30 or 35.  For the record, he's averaged 36 PPG in his two career Game 7s, the highest Game 7 scoring average ever.  Even if he throws up a stinker in Game 7, he still deserves credit for single-handedly keeping Miami in this series.

I can live with that

-When is Dwyane Wade going to show up?  Aside from his strong performance late in the fourth quarter and during overtime in Game 2, D-Wade's had a very quiet series.  He vanishes in the first half, a pattern he followed again during Game 6 before getting his stats after the Heat had already built up a double digit lead in the third quarter.  He's been deferring to James a lot and could be due for a big game if he starts playing more aggressively, but I hope the trend continues.  Because if he and James both get it going, the Celtics are doomed.  But if Miami loses, Wade, not James, deserves to bear the brunt of the media criticism.

-Wondering if Chris Bosh will start tonight.  He came off the bench in Game 6 but the Heat said they weren't going to limit his minutes, which leads me to believe that he's fully recovered from his abdominal strain suffered during Game 1 of the Indiana series.  He's been okay in limited action, but I seriously doubt that he'll have much of an impact on Game 7.

-Paul Pierce is going to have a big game.  Not Game 7 against James and the Cavs from 2008, but he'll get to the line, sink a couple big threes and hit some big shots in the fourth.  He's struggled with his shot all series, mainly because he's playing with one leg, keeps getting into foul trouble and has to cover James on defense.  But the "Truth" is too gritty, too much of a warrior to not play well tonight.  Even if his shots aren't falling, he'll still find a way to contribute.  This could very well be the last big game of the Celtics Captain career, and he won't disappoint.

Pierce has to use every weapon in his arsenal tonight

-Boston still has the coaching edge.  'Spo is much better than people give him credit for, but he's no Doc Rivers.

-Miami's role players have been streaky throughout the series, and I think the team's fate lays in their hands.  If Mike Miller, Mario Chalmers, James Jones, Udonis Haslem, and Shane Battier can take advantage of the looks that James and Wade get them off drive-and-kicks, then Miami is going to win.  Plain and simple.

-Hoping the three-point dam will burst for Boston; they've connected on just 29 percent of their shots from behind the arc.  The onus is on Pierce, Allen, Mickael Pietrus, and Keyon Dooling to help stretch the floor, thus opening up the paint for Pierce/Rondo drives and KG/Brandon Bass, by knocking down some treys. 

-The officiating has been pretty bad in this series, so I'm hoping the refs will do their best to call a fair game and not let Miami benefit from all the calls.

-I feel like Allen still has one or two big shots left in him, maybe a buzzer beater or perhaps a coming-off-the-screen-on-the-move-fading-out-of-bounds-how-in-the-world-did-he-hit-that?-corner three.  His shot has looked much better as of late, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he has one of those vintage Ray-Ray performances with four or five triples.  Realistically, I'd settle for two or three.

-Rajon Rondo will flirt with a triple-double (he has to)

-If the Celtics lose, I'm sure they will agonize over Avery Bradley's absence the way they did in 2010 when Kendrick Perkins' knee injury in Game 6 against the Lakers probably cost them their 18th championship banner.

-The Celtics will win, 88-86