Tonight a Must Win for Celtics

Listen up America, because I'm about to provide some insightful basketball analysis that I'm willing to bet you won't find anywhere else.  Are you ready?

Tonight's game against Miami is a must win for the Celtics.

Alright, so perhaps I'm stating the obvious here, but it's true. Because, if they lose, their backs are to the wall and this series, for all intents and purposes, will be over. The C's will be down three games to one, facing elimination on Tuesday night at the mercy of Miami's dynamic duo; LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.  This team may have a lot of heart and pride, but there's just no way they can beat the Heat three times in five days, especially when two of those games are on the road.

It's a precarious situation to be in, but they did this to themselves.  First by allowing the 76ers to hang around for seven games.  If the Green hang on to their 18 point lead in Game 4, then they take the series in five and squeeze in a little extra rest before their showdown with Miami (and with an aging, banged up team like this, every day off is worth its weight in gold).  But since they couldn't step on Philly's throat, the young Sixers fought back and the series ultimately went the full seven.  The Celtics were clearly exhausted for Game 1 in Miami, played 48 hours after an intense, do-or-die Game 7 at the Garden.  Given their fatigue (and shoddy officiating), it was a minor miracle that Boston battled Miami to a tie in the first half before running out of gas and fading in the second as the Heat cruised to a 93-79 victory.

Game 2 was their chance to steal a win on the road and rob Miami's homecourt advantage for the remainder of the series.  I had a good feeling about that game, and the C's looked to be in pretty good shape as they took a lead deep into the fourth quarter.  With Wade ice cold and LeBron choking once again, the game was theirs for the taking.  But Paul Pierce fouled out, Wade found his stroke and Miami's supporting cast, from Mario Chalmers and Shane Battier to Udonis Haslem and James Jones, were stepping up as needed.  The Heat forced an overtime in which Boston's captain could not play.  At that point, I knew the Celts were going to lose, and they proved me right when they were forced to swallow a bitter 115-111 defeat.  In the process they squandered an unforgettable Rajon Rondo performance--44 points, 10 dimes, and 8 boards--that impressed everybody from Magic Johnson to King James himself.  It has to be said that the referees, after slapping them with four technicals in Game 1--screwed them again.  The turning point in overtime (and perhaps the series) came when Wade whacked Rondo in the face as he drove to the hoop.  The refs didn't call it, Rondo dove to the floor and the Heat used their 5-on-4 advantage to score on the other end.  Rondo would recover to drain a pair of threes, but by then it was too little, too late.   Miami had themselves a comfy 2-0 lead and were back in the driver's seat, sending the Celtics reeling back to Beantown.

As expected, Boston bounced back on their homecourt to earn their first win of the series.  LBJ was on fire early as he single-handedly kept Miami in the game, but he fizzled out in the second half and was nowhere to be found when Miami tried to mount a fourth quarter rally (led by a hobbled Mike Miller).  Boston's defense did a great job of keeping James and Wade out of the paint and forcing them to settle for long jumpers, limiting their effectiveness.  James disappeared late, Wade had another quiet game, Kevin Garnett had another big hame, and Ray Allen's shots finally started falling.  The result was a convincing 101-91 triumph.

The same thing happened last year, though.  Miami took the first two games, the Celtics won Game 3, but then Rondo dislocated his shoulder and the Heat polished his teammates off in five.  The good news this time around is that Rondo is completely healthy (even after playing all 53 minutes of Game 2) and the Heat are the ones dealing with a major injury--Chris Bosh is still out with an abdominal strain and won't be suiting up tonight.  Wade will probably bounce back but I still like Boston's chances tonight, mainly because I think tonight is the night that Brandon Bass will finally breakthrough with a big game.

Celtics 94, Heat 90