Dunn Enters 400 Home Run Club

Yesterday Kansasy City pummeled Jake Peavy and the first place Chicago White Sox, 9-4.  But the story of the day was Adam Dunn, who swatted the 400th home run of his career and 35th of the season when he launched a two-run tater off Royals reliever Tim Collins, clearing the bleachers in left-center and scoring Kevin Youkilis in the process. With that eighth inning blast he became the third player to join the 400 HR club this season, following Boston's David Ortiz (July 4th at Oakland) and teammate Paul Konerko (April 25th, also at Oakland).  Both Konerko and Ortiz were 36 and already in their 16th season when they reached the benchmark, so it's going to be tough for them to get to the magic 500 mark. I don't think either one makes it, but because the duo has remained so productive and healthy into their mid-thirties it's still too soon to rule them out.  Dunn, on the other hand, is just 32 and in his twelfth big league campaign. As long as he continues to avoid major injuries (for a big guy he's surprisingly durable, having averaged 158 games played from 2004-'10 and has missed just one game thus far in 2012) and doesn't revert back to the historically awful player he was in 2011, he has a great chance to do it.  Especially now that he plays half his games at the homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field and is entrenched as the team's primary Designated Hitter.  For what it's worth, three of the top five players most similar to him through the same age (according to baseball-reference) finished much closer to 600 homers; Reggie Jackson (563), Harmon Killebrew (573) and the still active Jim Thome (611 and counting).

Dunn's dinger marks the first time in baseball history that teammates have hit their 400th career home run in the same season.  It was fitting, then, that Konerko, who also happens to protect Dunn in the batting order, went yard in the game, too.  The first baseman drove in Dunn, who had doubled, when the former drilled a two-run shot of his own off starter Bruce Chen to put Chicago on the board in the sixth inning.  Konerko now has 20 bombs in 13 of the past 14 years, and in the one year he failed to smack 20--2003--he just missed with 18.  

Dunn became the 50th player in major league history with at least 400 career home runs, and it's going to be quite a while before the club expands any further.  Nobody else is close to enough to reach 400 this year or next.  Only four players have as many as 350, and the first three are all 36 years old:

1. Alfonso Soriano, sitting on 362, is still 38 away.  He doesn't seem likely to get there in 2013, but since he's under contract for two more years and can still crush 20 homers per season he should join the club in 2014 if he stays healthy.
2. Lance Berkman is 40 shy of the milestone, but since 2006 his home run numbers have fallen off each year except for 2011, when he belted 31 circuit clouts on his way to winning NL Comeback Player of the Year honors.  Injuries have kept him from playing all but 28 games this season, and it's doubtful he will be able to bounce back to the form he displayed last year.
3. Carlos Lee has 44 to go, but his home run totals have decreased every year since he set a career high with 37 long balls in 2006.  This year El Caballo's power has vanished altogether, as he has gone deep just seven times in 2012.
4. 39 year-old Todd Helton needs 46, and will probably retire when his contract expires after next season.  Age and injuries have limited the Toddfather to just twelve home runs per season since 2006, and at this stage in his career he's not going to approach 400.

Dunn is currently leading the majors in home runs, walks (86) and strikeouts (172).