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Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Pagan, Scutaro Sparking San Francisco


Posey has overshadowed the torrid hitting of Angel Pagan (left) and Marco Scutaro 
Ask the average baseball fan who has been the most valuable player on the San Francisco Giants this season, and the vast majority of them would probably give Buster Posey as their response (a month ago you could have said Melky Cabrera; now I'd be shocked if the writers give him so much as a courtesy nod).  The 2010 NL Rookie of the Year is leading the team in almost every offensive category imaginable, ranks fourth in the league in bWAR and is tied with Andrew McCutchen for the top OPS+ in the majors. Since starting the All-Star Game (in which he caught for Matt Cain) he's done his best Ted Williams impression--circa 1941--by hitting an absurd .392/.466/.656 to push the Giants past the Los Angeles Dodgers in the standings and build a cushy eight game lead in the NL West.  Considering all that, some have already tabbed him as the frontrunner for National League MVP, I'm not convinced he's separated himself from the pack.  There are still several other candidates worthy of consideration; Ryan Braun has the best stats, David Wright's put together a heck of a year and McCutchen is heating up again after a brutal August slump. If 'Cutch can carry his Pittsburgh Pirates (2.5 games out of the second wild card spot) into the postseason for the first time since the Barry Bonds era ended there two decades ago, I think he's a shoe-in for the trophy.

So if Posey wants to become the first National League backstop to earn an MVP award since Johnny Bench in 1972, he will need to sustain his hot hitting for two more weeks.  In the meantime, San Francisco's cleanup hitter should continue to get plenty of opportunities to drive in runs given how productive the table-setters have been at the top of the lineup.  While Posey's gotten all the ink for his second half surge, veterans Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro have been the X-Factors fueling San Fran's success in August and September.

Pagan has quietly enjoyed a terrific campaign. Following a disappointing 2011 with the Mets in which he batted .262 and missed more than a month with a rib injury, the switch-hitting center-fielder was traded last offseason for Ramon Ramirez and Andres Torres. Installed by Bruce Bochy as the Giants leadoff batter, the 31 year-old Pagan has flourished in his Giants debut.  The speedster leads the major leagues in triples, with 13, plays solid defense, and has played like an MVP over the past six weeks. Since August 3rd, Pagan is batting a Posey-like .331/.389/.554 with 14 doubles, eight triples and 42 runs scored (one run per game).   He's been a catalyst at the top of the lineup, a light version Michael Bourn or Jose Reyes.

Batting right behind him is the well-traveled Scutaro, playing for his fourth team in the past four years.  He began the season with the Rockies, only to be dealt to San Fran on July 27th in exchange for Charlie Culberson.  At the time the move hardly looked like a game-changer, for in his brief tenure with the Rockies Scoots produced 0.0 bWAR and compiled a 73 OPS+.  Since donning the Giants uniform, though, the 36 year-old second baseman has looked rejuvenated at the plate batted a blazing .349/.367/.451 with 31 RBI and just 13 strikeouts in 215 plate appearances.  Every time you check the box score it seems like he's gone 2-for-4 or 3-for-5 (he has ten multi-hit games in September).  At this point in his career most of his value is tied up in base hits, since he lacks power, doesn't steal bases, and rarely draws walks (reminds me of Michael Young).  But when one bats in front of Pablo Sandoval, Posey and Hunter Pence, getting to first base is usually enough.

It's impossible to overstate how important the contributions (5.8 oWAR) of these two players.  Last year, the Giants missed the postseason mainly because they couldn't muster enough offense to support their stellar pitching.  Posey's ankle injury and Carlos Beltran's DL stint played a part in this, but it also didn't help that their table-setters simply weren't doing their jobs.


2011
Batting first: .232/.292/.357
Batting second: .264/.308/.354

This season has been a completely different story.  Pagan and Scutaro have stabilized the top of the order and are getting on base for the big bats coming up behind them.

2012
Batting first: .265/.335/.426
Batting second: .290/.335/.369

That's a 112 point jump in OPS out of the lead-off spot and a 42 point spike from the two-hole.  Their success, combined with elite production from Posey, has helped transform San Francisco from the lowest scoring offense in the league  last year to one that rates seventh (out of 16 teams) in runs this season.  The pitching has held despite disappointing seasons from Tim Lincecum and Brian Wilson, so the Giants are poised to make a run at their second World Series title in three years.

Pagan has never played in the postseason.  Scutaro has, albeit once and six years ago.  But with the postseason just around the corner, both have taken their games to another level.

They just have to keep doing what they're doing.  Perhaps people will finally start to take notice.  Maybe then they'll get the credit they deserve.

And maybe, just maybe, Buster Posey will win an MVP award because of it.

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