The debate between Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera has been raging for months, and by this point it's been analyzed to death. I don't want to beat a dead horse, so I'm just going to say this. Mike Trout deserved to win the American League Most Valuable Player award. So did Miguel Cabrera. Trout deserved it more. He should have been the third player to win both Rookie of the Year honors and the MVP award in the same season (Fred Lynn and Ichiro Suzuki are the others).
I don't mean to bash Cabrera here, because he had a monster season. He really did. Besides leading the league with his .330-44-139 produciton, he also led the majors with his .999 OPS and 377 total bases. Hands down the best hitter in baseball this year. No disrespect to Cabrera, but his numbers weren't that special (they look like your typical Manny Ramirez year, or something out of Jim Rice's prime). Trout had one of the greatest seasons of all time. There is no compelling argument for why Miggy should have won over Trout, especially by such a huge margin;
-Cabrera won the Triple Crown, which is cool. Nobody had done it since Carl Yastrzemski's magical 1967 season. But Trout became the first player ever to score at least 125 runs, hit 30 homers and steal 45 bases.
-Cabrera hit better down the stretch (August and September), but Trout was better in May, June, and July. Last time I checked, a win in May counts just as much in the standings as it does in September.
-Sure, the Tigers made the playoffs and the Angels didn't, but LA actually won one more game in Detroit despite playing in a much tougher division. While Detroit got to beat up on the Twins, Royals, and Indians, LA had to duke it out with Oakland and Texas all summer long. The Halos missed the playoffs because Pujols had the worst April of his career, Mark Trumbo disappeared after the All-Star Break, Ervin Santana fell apart and Dan Haren had the worst full season of his career. How is any of that Trout's fault? If the team hadn't kept him buried in the minors for most of April it probably would have reached the postseason. And I'm sick of the notion that the MVP has to come from a playoff team (it cost Matt Kemp the award last year). The best player deserves to win. Period.
-Trout had the best season by a 20 year-old has ever had. Better than Alex Rodriguez's 1996, Ted Williams' 1939 and Ty Cobb's 1907. Cabrera didn't even have the best season of his career (his last two years were better).
-Trout was the best defensive centerfielder (forget Adam Jones winning the Gold Glove, Trout won the Fielding Bible Award) and the best baserunner in baseball. Cabrera "sacrificed" by moving back to third base to make room for Prince Fielder, but he is average at the hot corner and average on the basepaths.
-Cabrera hit better with runners on base, but he also had 138 more men on base than Trout did over the course of the season and also grounded into two dozen more double plays. Besides, WPA (the best statistic for measuring "clutch") shows that Trout was superior in high leverage situations.
-Forget the batting title. Every baseball fan worth his salt knows OBP is more important, and Trout's .399 mark tops Cabrera's .393.
-Last but not least, Trout was worth 10.7 bWAR, the most any position player has had since Barry Bonds ten years ago. Cabrera was worth 6.9, becoming the first Triple Crown winner not to lead his league in in WAR. You tell me who was more valuable.
As for the National League, it was a foregone conclusion that Buster Posey would win the award after his monster second half helped San Francisco reclaim the NL West. Even though his counting numbers paled in comparison to Ryan Braun's, Posey's 7.2 bWAR led the league. The Giants backstop posted the best batting average and OPS+ in the majors. He cut down more would-be basestealers than any catcher in baseball. Put it all together and Posey became the first NL catcher to win the award since Johnny Bench took home the trophy in 1972 (looking at Mike Piazza's player page it's a wonder he never won.)
I was happy to see Braun get the credit he deserved for another phenomenal season. The 2011 NL MVP paced the Senior Circuit in runs, homers, OPS, total bases, and extra base hits while finishing second in hits, slugging, RBI. He was the only player in the league to go 30/30, something he did last year as well. He was undoubtedly the top hitter in th NL this year, and had the Brewers made the playoffs the vote would have been much closer. As it is, he finished a distant second but still received ten first place votes. I thought the BBWAA would punish him for his testosterone red flag last October, but they gave him a fair shake. Andrew McCutchen (third) and Yadier Molina (fourth) took the remaining pair of first place votes, while NL RBI leader Chase Headley rounded out the top five.
Other notes of interest:
The AL truly was a two-horse race. Cabrera and Trout received all 28 first place votes. I'm a little surprised that Robinson Cano or Josh Hamilton didn't get any.
Justin Verlander, the Cy Young runner-up, finished four spots higher than David Price, who won the award.
Albert Pujols wound up 17th, the first time in his career he missed the top ten. Before this season he'd made the top five every year from 2001-2011 except 2007, when he finished ninth.
Nobody on the Boston Red Sox received MVP consideration, and rightfully so. Can't remember the last time that happened.
Hunter Pence made his way onto the ballot despite skidding to the finish line with a .253/.319/.425 batting line and 0.8 bWAR. I'm guessing someone was impressed with his 24 home runs and 104 RBI.
Chipper Jones received consideration for the 13th and final time in his career.
And who in God's name voted for Raul Ibanez? (probably the same guy who threw David Robertson a vote last season; the man needs to be stopped). Ibanez batted .240/.308/.453 and was worth a paltry 0.3 bWAR. I can think of many players more deserving of that vote; Curtis Granderson, David Ortiz, Chris Davis, Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and the biggest snub; Austin Jackson. A-Jax led the league in triples, maintained a .377 OBP and scored 103 runs setting the table for Prince Fielder and the MVP.
"Forget the batting title. Every baseball fan worth his salt knows OBP is more important, and Trout's .399 mark tops Cabrera's .393."
ReplyDeleteDisregarding that the difference here is reaching base 7 times in a THOUSAND plate appearances, for the games highest slugging pct players, batting average is far more important than OBP. If the player who has the greatest run production per safe hit, also hits safely more frequently than any other player, in most cases you don't want him to walk and be "replaced" by an inferior hitter. (The opposing manager often doe--it's called an "intentional walk")
Also, I keep seeing where the grounding into DP discrepancy is cited, but never see anything about Trout's astonishingly 139 strikeouts. Surely there is some negative impact when 1/4 of every at bat for the entire season resulted in a worthless out without even the possibility of sac fly, moving runners, reaching base on an error, etc.
Finally, how can it possibly be more valuable to have a great player contribute in only 139 games vs. a nearly-as-great player for 161?
A hitter's main objective regardless of the situation is to get on base/avoid making an out, whether it's via a hit or walk. Besides, the discrepancy between Cabrera's .330 batting average and Trout's .326 is even closer.
ReplyDeleteFurthermore, Cabrera drew just 49 unintentional walks, which is not that impressive for a slugger of his caliber. By comparison, Trout drew 63 unintentional walks (and one more overall). Cabrera was being "replaced" by Prince Fielder, one of the best run producers in the game, so if anything he should have had more incentive to be selective. And by your logic, the best hitter on the team should avoid walking, which is silly. Pitchers work these hitters more carefully so they receive fewer good pitches to hit/do damage with. I would much rather see a slugger work a walk than go up there hacking and hit a weak dribbler on a slider a foot out of the strike zone.
And I find it ludicrous that people keep bringing up the fact that Trout played 22 fewer games than Cabrera. Trout was still more valuaable, and it's not his fault the Angels kept him buried in the minors for most of April! If anything, it makes his accomplishments even more impressive because he spotted the league an entire month and still wound up leading several major categories. Had he started on Opening Day, his numbers would have been so monstrous that there wouldn't have been a discussion.
You bring up a good point that Trout struck out a lot, but striking out isn't that bad (especially nowadays hitters are striking out more than ever before) and making one out is better than making two. Looking at the BR's Productive Out stat (advancing the runner or scoring him while making an out), Cabrera was successful in 35 percent of those opportunities whereas Trout came through 31 percent of the time. Cabrera was better in these situations, but his 24 more DPs more or less negates the advantage.