MLB award season is in full swing, and starting tomorrow the Baseball Writers Association of America will announce their selections for the sport's top rookies, managers, pitchers, and most valuable players. All eyes are on Thursday, when the MVPs will be revealed.
Both races were hotly contested this year and there figures to be plenty of controversy regardless of who wins. The American League award is too close to call and seems destined to end in a photo finish between wunderkind Mike Trout and Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera (Trout should win, but Cabrera probably will win). Buster Posey appears to be the favorite in the National League but is far from a sure thing. Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Braun and Yadier Molina all have compelling cases as well.
I recently read an article arguing against Posey and felt compelled to plead his case. No National League catcher has won the award since Johnny Bench in 1972, but Posey deserves it. Here are five good reasons why he should take home the trophy:
1. Posey led the National League in Wins Above Replacement (WAR)
WAR is one of my favorite stats because it combines batting, defense and baserunning to represent a player's value based on how many additional wins he provides compared to a replacement level player. Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs use different methods to calculate this statistic, but both sites have Posey leading the National League.
2. Posey led the major leagues in Adjusted OPS+
By that measure, which takes the league's offensive environment and the player's home ballpark into account, he was the best hitter in baseball this year. Better than Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, and all the rest. Accordingly, Posey received the NL Hank Aaron Award, awarded annually by the MLB to the best hitter in each league. Posey is the first catcher to win the award.
3. Posey led the NL in Adjusted Batting Runs, Adusted Batting Wins, and Base-Out Wins Added
He topped the Senior Circuit in these three important advanced statistics. Adjusted Batting Runs estimates a player’s total contributions to a team’s runs . Adjusted Batting Wins estimates a player’s total contributions to a team’s wins with his bat. Base-Out Wins Added deduces the number of wins above average the player was worth by his performance measured by the 24 base-out situations across every play in the game.
4. Posey became the first catcher to win a batting title in 70 years (since Ernie Lombardi)
Granted, he won on a technicality, but it remains an impressive feat nevertheless (thanks to Melky Cabrera).
5. Posey led the majors in caught stealing
He gunned down more potential basestealers (38) than any other catcher, including Yadier Molina who is widely regarded as the best defensive backstop in baseball. Posey is no Ivan Rodriguez, but next year runners should think twice before testing his quick reflexes and strong arm.
Your argument is very weak. Most of the basis for Posey winning the MVP "adjusted this", and "adjusted that". Hypotheticals. That is what adjusted OPS, adjusted batting wins, adjusted batting runs are. They are not real numbers, they are "what ifs". Are we really going to start handing out awards based on fairy tale numbers? If so, we need to go back and have the BBWAA revote every single MVP award in baseball history, because such and such player benefited playing in a park where there are more home runs hit, or such and such player didn't have the numbers they should have because their home games were in a pitcher's park.
ReplyDeleteThis is saying "hey, Buster Posey's home run totals would be so much better if he played his home games in another stadium". So, Ryan Braun really didn't hit 17 more home runs than Posey. Ridiculous. Is there any adjustment then made to Posey's batting average in these numbers? Because his average certainly benefits from hitting in a bigger stadium. More ground for the outfielders to cover = a higher chance a batted ball falls in for a hit. I don't supposed in any of these "hypothetical" numbers that is taken into consideration. And if it's not, these "hypothetical" numbers are crap.
Ryan Braun SHOULD win the MVP. He had a better season in 2012 then he did when he won the MVP in 2011, and he was better than Posey this year. But he won't, because suddenly the BBWAA, the same people that had no problem whatsoever voting for Barry Bonds as MVP. Suddenly at age 36, when most major leaguers are considering retirement, Barry Bonds comes out and hits 73 home runs, 24 more than he hit in any of his "prime" seasons. There were whispers, and downright accusations that he was using performance enhancers, but the BBWAA didn't take those into consideration. Now, however, they are the moral voice, unabashedly speaking out against steroids, and "making a statement" by not voting for the best hitter in the National League as MVP because he was accused of taking a PED. Never mind that he won his appeal...we're going to call it a "technicality", even though we really have no facts of the appeal to consider...and we're going to vote against Braun.
Saying that Buster Posey is an equal power hitter to Ryan Braun, which is the argument you and so many other hack writers seem to be trying to make, is absurd. Posey hit 7 HR in 245 at bats at AT&T Park this season. One every 35 at bats. So, Ryan Braun would have the same difficulty hitting home runs at AT&T, right? That's what all this 'adjusted" BS is about. Augmenting the numbers of players that have half their games in a pitcher's park. Well then how do you account for the fact that in 66 career at bats at AT&T Park, Ryan Braun has hit 6 home runs? It's a small sample size, but he's hitting a home run every 11 official plate appearances in a place that, during his "MVP" season, Buster Posey was only able to hit 7..again, in 245 at bats.
Braun would hit home runs no matter where he played his home games. This is a guy that hit three bombs in one game at Petco. He hit two in a game at Target Field. And with Prince Fielder no longer in Milwaukee, meaning (according to many sportswriters) that "Braun would struggle", Braun put up Triple Crown numbers of his own. He missed the Triple Crown by 16 batting points, and 3 RBI. Yet we're supposed to believe Posey was better?
Catchers in recent years have had vastly superior offensive seasons to Posey's 2012 campaign, and not won the MVP. Look at the years Mike Piazza had. Not even close. The Dodger teams he played for were in the playoffs. Piazza hit .360 + with over 40 HR, and yet he didn't win the MVP. But now all of a sudden, when a catcher has a really good offensive season, he's deemed "more valuable", and HAS to get the MVP?
(part 2)
ReplyDeleteBraun led the NL in home runs, runs, OPS, extra base hits and total bases. He was second in hits, slugging and RBI, and third in average. He was the only 30/30 player in the majors this year....yet Buster Posey is the MVP?
Horse shit. That's what it is. The only way you or anybody else can make an argument that Posey deserves it is to throw out a bunch of "adjusted" numbers, which really don't mean a thing.
Oh, and by the way. When you look at Ryan Braun's 2012 home runs on ESPN's home run tracker, and overlay AT&T Park, only two of the 41 he hit wouldn't have been out at AT&T.
http://hittrackeronline.com/detail2.php?id=2012_92&type=hitter
Ryan Braun is CLEARLY the best offensive player in the National League, and should be MVP. But because suddenly the Baseball Writers are morally indignant that Braun had a questionable steroid test, they're going to rob him.