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Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Youkilis a Yankee

Kevin Youkilis, one of the few remaining free agent third basemen, signed a one-year, $12 million deal with the New York Yankees today. He will man the hot corner in the Bronx next year while Alex Rodriguez is on the mend, which could be most of the first half. If and when Rodriguez returns from his hip surgery, Youkilis should continue to see action when Joe Girardi pencils A-Rod into the DH slot where the fading superstar belongs.

Youkilis is just the latest Red Sox to sign a free agent contract with the hated Yankees, following in the footsteps of Roger Clemens, Wade Boggs and Johnny Damon. Boston drafted the Greek God of Walks in 2001 (much to Billy Beane's chagrin) and watched him become a fan favorite that made three All-Star teams, won a Gold Glove and, most importantly, helped bring a pair of World Series titles to Beantown.

But those memories, including Joba Chamberlain throwing at his head, are all in the past. Youkilis hasn't been a member of the Red Sox since last June, when GM Ben Cherington traded him to Chicago for pennies on the dollar. Youk's not the MVP candidate he was in his prime, either. He turns 34 next spring and is just as injury prone as the man he's replacing. Over the past three years Youkilis has averaged just 115 games played per year while his OPS has plummeted from .975 to .833 to .745. Last season he posted career-lows in batting average, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. He's old and in decline, so he'll fit right in with his new teammates.

The Red Sox hope his replacement Will Middlebrooks can build upon a strong rookie season in which he batted a rock-solid .288/.325/.509 with 15 home runs and 54 RBI before suffering a broken hand after getting hit by a pitch on August 10th . If the 24 year-old stays healthy next year, he could threaten .300-30-110, but I see him settling closer to the .275-25-90 range.  The Red Sox are counting on him and Mike Napoli to supply the right-handed power, but it goes without saying that Middlebrooks must improve his plate discipline. The aggressive rookie fanned more than five times for every walk he drew last year, but hopefully he matures a bit and shows more patience this season.

As for Youkilis, expect him to do an adequate job holding down the fort. His .268 BABiP from last year screams bad luck, and he still has good on-base skills to complement his decent power. Much was made about New York's struggles with runners in scoring position last year but Youkilis, a .318 hitter in such scenarios, thrives with men on base. Assuming he gets regular PT after Rodriguez returns, I project him hitting around 20 homers next year, knocking in 80 runs and batting in the .250-.260 range. New York's fans are hard to satisfy and might be skeptical of the former Red Sox at first, but they'll warm up to him after he delivers a handful clutch hits and sparks their emotionless veteran ballclub with some of his signature passion.

Just as long as those hits don't come at Boston's expense, that's fine with me.

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