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| Tulowitzki's hot bat has helped carry Colorado |
*Their home/road splits are still ridiculous, though. At Coors they're batting .346/.398/.586, which means everyone on the team is essentially hitting like Joe DiMaggio. Away from Coors, they're batting .253/.304/.388. That's an OPS difference of nearly 300 points.
It's nice to see Colorado, who hasn't enjoyed a winning season since 2010, jump out to a fast start, but right now that's all it is: a good start.
Remember last year, they went 13-4 to open the season, winning eight in a row at one point. They led the division as late as Memorial Day weekend and were in second place through the first week in July (despite having a sub-.500 record). They faded down the stretch and wound up at 74-88, last place in the NL West (despite pacing the Senior Circuit in hits, batting average, slugging percentage, total bases, and OPS).
They say it's not how you start, but how you finish. The Rockies certainly proved that last year.
Fundamentally, not much has changed. The offense is still dynamite, and the pitching is still horrendous. That formula might work for short stretches when their hitters get into a groove, but over the course of a full season it's not a winning recipe. Colorado can hit all it wants, but until the organization develops some quality pitching the playoffs are never going to be a real possibility.
Which is too bad, really, because they sure can hit.
The pitching actually isn't horrendous at all. They're on pace to make 72 quality starts, which is 7 more than they had last season, they actually have a respectable #5 starter, again something they lacked last year, they have 2 elite prospects who are almost big league ready, and their best starter hasn't thrown an inning yet. Their collective bullpen ERA (among players who are currently on the 25 man roster) is 2.62, which would be good for 5th best in the Majors. The pitching has done it's part so far.
ReplyDeleteThey have the third-worst ERA in the National League, rank second-to-last in runs allowed and home runs allowed, and are dead-last in strikeouts. They're only winning games because they're outslugging opponents, and no team in today's game is going to be able to maintain an .825 OPS for a whole season. When the offense inevitably slumps, so will the team
ReplyDeleteWell I think we all know that looking at raw ERA isn't the best measure for Rockies pitchers since they pitch in by far the most hitter friendly park in the league. If you look at ERA-, which adjusts for ballpark, they jump up to 9th (the same spot they were in the last time they made the playoffs), and even that is negatively skewed by 2 players who have since been demoted to AAA. In the past 2 weeks their ERA- ranks 5th in the NL and in the past 2 and a half weeks they have won games with scores of 3-2, 3-1, 3-1, 2-1, and 1-0. Their best starter (Chacin) hasn't thrown an inning yet but will be back soon, their 2nd best starter (De La Rosa) is back on track, posting a 2.00 ERA his last 3 starts after a 9.69 his first 3, they're 8-5 this season when someone other than Chacin/De La Rosa/Chatwood/Nicasio starts compared to 12-38 last season, they produce a ton of ground balls which profiles perfectly for a team at Coors Field that has the best infield defense in baseball, and they have 2 elite prospects who are almost Big League ready. It's funny how people like to knock Rockies hitters because of Coors Field, but nobody gives Rockies pitchers a break for it.
DeleteInterestingly the Rockies have a better raw ERA at home (3.93) than they do on the road (4.36). WHIP is practically even and opponents' OPS is 22 points higher on the road. Go figure
DeleteSmall sample sizes do funny things.
DeleteThat also doesn't mean that Coors Field hasn't negatively skewed their pitching numbers.
DeleteAlso I don't expect Brett Anderson to make an ounce of difference. He's never been able to stay healthy and had a 6.04 ERA with Oakland last year, in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball. I don't see him doing to well at Coors
ReplyDeleteHe's not gonna give them a ton of innings, but it's silly to think he won't help them when he is on the mound. His 6.04 ERA last season was a fluke, as indicated by his career 3.81 ERA and his 3.85 FIP, 3.26 xFIP, and 3.24 SIERA that accompanied his 6.04 raw ERA. He also put together a very solid 3.60 ERA in limited action this season. He's not gonna give the Rockies a lot of innings, but he'll be an above average pitcher when he's out there.
DeleteI'm not so sure about that (that he'll be above average), but I guess it's hard to have faith in a pitcher who's made only 24 starts over the past three years combined with very limited success. He's basically the pitching equivalent of Grady Sizemore.
DeleteA 3.81 career ERA is better than "limited success." That's a solid above average pitcher. The question is just how much he'll actually be healthy, I think if you're the Rockies you'd be happy to get 80ish innings out of him.
DeleteI was referring to the last three years where he has a 4.25 ERA (92 ERA+). Obviously he makes the Rockies' rotation better but not by much. He's definitely not the impact arm they need
DeleteYeah, but his FIP (which is a much better indicator of future performance) during that same time frame is 3.67, which again indicates that he'll be above average when healthy. You're right though, he isn't the impact arm the Rockies need. Jon Gray and Eddie Butler are though, and they'll be ready for the Big Leagues soon.
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