Celtics Live to Fight Another Day

Pierce brings the Boston crowd to its feet with a three-pointer

Just when I had given up the Boston Celtics and resigned myself to the fact that they were almost certainly going to get swept in a playoff series for the first time since Kevin Garnett donned the Celtic green, they sucked me back in. They reminded me that they are a gritty, resilient basketball team with mountains of pride and just enough talent. Not deep enough to win a seven game series without Rajon Rondo, mind you, but enough to compete and battle and hang in there, even if they usually falter at the end.

Playing in front of a home crowd for possibly the last time this season, the Celtics exhibited the kind of heart you'd expect from them in that kind of situation. Playing with energy, purpose, and desperation, they staved off elimination by willing themselves to a 97-90 overtime win over the New York Knicks on Sunday afternoon.

The Knicks were without J.R. Smith, who served his one-game suspension for elbowing Jason Terry's face in Game 3, and clearly missed his presence on offense. With New York stumbling through a 35-point first half, the Celtics roared out to a 19-point lead. Boston was in control, the game seemingly in hand.

But the Celtics have been prone to blowing huge leads all year, a bad habit that almost cost them the game. Boston gave New York easy points, letting the Knicks gather momentum and ultimately battle them to a draw at the end of regulation.

Typical Celtics. They never, ever make it easy on themselves.

So with Boston's season hanging in the balance and no Rondo to save them, Terry took matters into his own hands. JET came on strong at the end, scoring Boston's last nine points to lead them past NY in OT. It was a put-the-team-on-my-back performance usually reserved for superstars of the highest order, the LeBron Jameses, Kobe Bryants and Carmelo Anthonys of the world.

Speaking of Anthony, he finally suffered his first off-night of the series. After torching Boston for 96 points in the first three games, 'Melo shot a pitiful 10-of-35 from the floor in Game 4, the kind of inefficiency that negates the value of his 36 points. He needed and got lots of help from Raymond Felton, who dropped 27 points and sparked New York's second half surge, but nobody else stepped up.With better bench play, the Knicks would already be in the second round.

But they aren't, and there's more basketball to be played. I was ready to forget about the Celtics and move on, but now there's another game. There's still hope. I'll tune in when the series resumes on Wednesday night, expecting to see the same effort I saw today. That's really all I can ask for.

Justin Upton: Man on a Mission

Justin Upton is insanely, impossibly, ridiculously hot right now. He's so hot, in fact, that you can almost see the flames radiating from his bat every time he swings. His plate appearances have materialized into must-see TV.

After homering in both games of yesterday's doubleheader in Colorado, he now has 11 big flies on the young season. Nobody else has more than seven. He also has the highest slugging percentage (.813) and most total bases (61) of anyone in baseball. But since all but one of his dingers came with nobody on base, his power surge has produced just 16 RBI. For that he can blame Atlanta's table-setters--Andrelton Simmons and his big brother B.J. Upton--who have a combined OBP somewhere in the .250 range. Because of them, most times when the younger Upton digs in, the table is empty.

But a dearth of RBI opportunities hasn't stopped Upton from enjoying one of the best starts in baseball history. The Braves have gone along for the ride, jumping out to a 15-5 record and building a quick five game lead over the NL East, making their 25 year-old left fielder an early MVP favorite as well as a shoo-in to make his third All-Star team.

Out west, Upton's former employers have to be kicking themselves for trading him away when he was still under team control through 2015. Everyone could see the former first overall draft pick had this kind of superstar talent in him; he just needed time to mature. Now, he's growing up right before our eyes and is poised to become a major force for years to come. Three weeks into the season, it seems inevitable that future generations of baseball fans will look back on this trade the same way we disparage Boston's sale of Babe Ruth or the Reds' trading Frank Robinson.

More importantly, Upton's home run barrage merely reinforces what we knew three months ago; the Diamondbacks were dumb to trade Justin Upton.

NL Central Preview

1st Place--Cincinnati Reds
2012 Record: 97-65
2012 Pythagorean: 91-71
2013 Projected: 93-69
The lineup is much more fearsome with on-base machine Shin-Soo Choo setting the table for Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. Votto is going to hit like he did in the first half last year and win the MVP award. Bruce's home run totals have increased every year and he's one of the few sluggers with a legitimate shot at 40 homers. Brandon Phillips is as steady as the come at second base. Todd Frazier can hit, too, and represents a big improvement over Scott Rolen even if he can't play Gold Glove caliber defense like his predecessor did. Zack Cozart is a talented out-machine much like Drew Stubbs, but it is his age 27 season so maybe he takes a big step forward. The starting rotation that started 161 games last year returns intact. Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto are bona fide aces. You know what you're getting from Bronson Arroyo--200 innings of above average ball. Homer Bailey finally emerged as a legit midrotation starter last year and should be just as good, if not better, in 2013. Mike Leake is serviceable. Aroldis Chapman and Jonathan Broxton head what should be a solid bullpen.

2nd Place--St. Louis Cardinals
2012 Record: 88-74
2012 Pythagorean: 93-69
2013 Projected: 86-76
Make no mistake about it; this team is built to hit. St. Louis is stacked offensively and has a wealth of starting pitching, but injuries have already struck down several key players (Rafael Furcal, David Freese, Chris Carpenter) and figure to get Allen Craig and Carlos Beltran sooner or later. Yadier Molina is also poised for regression following his career year. The rotation is just as deep as the lineup, with Adam Wainwright looking to pitch like the Cy Young candidate he was before Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2011 season. Jaime Garcia and Lance Lynn are surprisingly underrated. Shelby Miller could win Rookie of the Year. Jake Westbrook is the weakest link, and he's a perfectly fine 4 or 5 for most teams. The bullpen isn't great, especially with Jason Motte out for quite some time, but there are enough arms to keep the 'pen decent enough.

3rd Place--Milwaukee Brewers
2012 Record: 83-79
2012 Pythagorean: 85-77
2013 Projected: 81-81
The lineup is shockingly average around Ryan Braun. There are no real holes, but nobody else is really that good either except for Aramis Ramirez, who's going to be 35 this summer. Corey Hart is hurt. Rickie Weeks always disappoints. Carlos Gomez blends power and speed like B.J. Upton. Jonathan Lucroy might turn out to be a top-ten catcher in his age 27 season. The rotation gets a nice boost from Kyle Lohse, who'll have to pitch like a number two behind Yovani Gallardo (who's not a true ace). Marco Estrada is a strikeout machine and is going to have a nice year, but the bottom of the rotation is scary. The bullpen is even worse. The Brewers could hang around for awhile, but they're not going to contend.

4th Place--Pittsburgh Pirates
2012 Record: 79-83
2012 Pythagorean: 78-84
2013 Projected:77-85
I see another losing season in Pittsburgh's future. The offense features plenty of pop but little speed outside of Starling Marte and Andrew McCutchen. 'Cutch is a legit MVP candidate, but his sluggish second half leads me to believe he'll slip a bit in 2013. Pedro Alvarez finally harnessed his big-time power last year, but he's a feast-or-famine hitter who whiffs way too much and is prone to lengthy slumps. Late-bloomer Garrett Jones also hits for power but is just average when it comes to getting on base. I keep waiting for Neil Walker to get better, so perhaps this is the year he bats .300 with 15 bombs. The starting rotation lacks depth and an ace to lead it. A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez are both good but hardly qualify as number ones. James McDonald is so-so, stellar first half aside. Jonathan Sanchez won't be the answer. The bullpen is unimpressive, but don't be surprised if Jason Grilli is an All-Star closer and/or leads the league in saves.

5th Place--Chicago Cubs
2012 Record: 61-101
2012 Pythagorean: 65-97
2013 Projected: 67-95
Reasons to watch: Anthony Rizzo's power, Starlin Castro's errors, Carlos Marmol's meltdowns, Jeff Samardzija's starts.
Yup. That pretty much sums it up.

Why the Red Sox are for real

The Red Sox are rolling and their hot start isn't a mirage (Fox)

A lot has been written about the Red Sox's hot start lately, especially after they rode a seven-game win streak to the top of the American League East. The surging Sox have caught many baseball fans and pundits alike by surprise, leading them to wonder whether the Olde Towne Team, now 13-6 after tonight's win over the Oakland A's, is for real. I was bullish about the Sox during Spring Training, and after three weeks of phenomenal baseball I feel confident they're legit. While I'm not ready to hand them the division just yet, it's clear they're here to stay and are going to contend in 2013.

Here are five signs their fortunes have turned for the better:

1. The starting pitching is great
Boston sports the second best ERA in the American League largely because the rotation is thriving. After abominable seasons last year, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz are pitching like it's 2010 again. Lester has rediscovered the form that once made him an annual preseason Cy Young favorite, but Buchholz has been even better. Ryan Dempster has surpassed expectations by piling up 33 strikeouts in 24 innings. Fellow strikeout machine Felix Doubront still hasn't reached his ceiling yet. Even John Lackey looked good before promptly returning to the Disabled List. Whatever John Farrell and pitching coach Juan Nieves are doing differently, it's working.

2. Players are healthy (knock on wood)
The Red Sox were crippled by injuries last year, but fortunately none of them have lingered into this season. Granted, it's still early, and health is impossible to predict, but so far the returns are encouraging. Mike Napoli has shown no ill effects from the degenerative hip condition that scared Boston into restructuring his contract over the winter. Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury are fully healthy, unlike last year when they were banged up for large chunks of the season. Will Middlebrooks appears recovered from the broken hand that cut his rookie season short last August. David Ortiz has come back strong. Now if they can just get Stephen Drew going...

3. The lineup is more patient
Last year the Sox strayed so far from their disciplined ways that they walked less than every team in baseball except for the Kansas City Royals, who at least had the excuse of being the MLB's youngest team. Ben Cherington rectified that during the offseason by bringing in several hitters known for grinding out at-bats and making opponents work, namely Napoli, Gomes, and J.D. Drew's younger brother. These additions have gotten Boston back on track; among AL teams, only Billy Beane's Oakland A's have drawn more walks.

The scary thing is, the lineup should get even better. Napoli's knocked in a lot of runs, but his OBP is a full 50 points below his career average. Middlebrooks has been miserable aside from his three-homer outburst in Toronto but has nowhere to go but up. Pedroia, Shane Victorino and Jonny Gomes have yet to find their power strokes. Yes, Daniel Nava is going to cool off, but it's hardly going to matter once the offense starts firing on all cylinders.

4. The bullpen is just as good as anticipated
Hailed by many as the team's greatest strength coming into the season, Boston's relief corps has lived up to its billing. The bullpen boasts a 3.48 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 rate. Andrew Bailey, Junichi Tazawa, Clayton Mortenson, and newcomer Koji Uehara have all been lights out. Joel Hanrahan's April 10th meltdown disguises the fact that he pitched very well in his first four appearances of the year. The 'pen will be even better once he returns from his DL stint, which could be as soon as Sunday.

5. The defense is good
One of the least-discussed reasons for Boston's early success is their outstanding defense, which leads the majors in fielding percentage and fewest errors committed. Napoli is no Adrian Gonzalez at first, but Pedroia plays Gold Glove defense at the keystone position. Drew and Middlebrooks are solid defenders as well, but the D is anchored by its speedy outfielders--Ellsbury in center and Victorino in right. What they lack in arm strength they make up for in range and their ability to cover lots of ground in Fenway's deceptively spacious outfield. If and when Jackie Bradley Jr. returns to the Show, the Red Sox will feature speed at all three outfield positions.

2012-2013 All NBA

PG Chris Paul (26.4 PER)
The ever-efficient Paul continued his reign as the NBA's top point guard by averaging 16.9 points, 9.7 asssists and an NBA-best 2.4 steals per game despite playing a career-low 33.4 minutes per game. Nobody's better at finding their teammates than Paul, who posted the NBA's highest assist percentage and ranked second in total assists and assists per game behind only Greivis Vasquez. Though Paul's three-point percentage dropped below 33 percent--his worst mark since his rookie year--CP3 made up for it by boosting his field goal percentage for the second straight year and sinking a career-best 88.5 percent of this free throws. Improvements in both areas yielded a .594 True Shooting percentage, the second highest of his career. Put it all together and it's easy to see why Paul ranked third in PER behind LeBron James and Kevin Durant.

SG Kobe Bryant (23 PER)
Really close call between the Black Mamba and James Harden, who had an outstanding season in his own right. Their numbers are nearly identical, I'll give the edge to Bryant for rising above the shitstorm that enveloped the Lakers this year and leading them into the postseason. Given the level of talent surrounding him (Steve Nash, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol) it's almost unfathomable that he averaged 27.3 points per game and tied a career high with six assists per game at the ripe old age of 34. Bryant embraced his role as the alpha dog and took matters into his own hands, notching his eighth season with at least 2,000 points and while posting the highest Effective Field Goal percentage of his distinguished career. His defense continues to suffer, but Bryant is still such a force with the ball in his hands that he more than makes up for it. Although his season ended a down note when he tore his Achilles tendon just before the playoffs, I fully expect  the resilient Bryant to return with a vengeance and resume his assault on Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's scoring record. He's showed no signs of slowing down and given us no reason whatsoever to bet against him.

SF LeBron James (31.6 PER)
Another banner year for James has all but assured him of his fourth MVP award. King James continued to improve in his tenth season, playing the best individual basketball anyone's seen since Michael Jordan was in his prime. By honing his post game, James combined his typically stellar all-around numbers--26.8 points, 7.3 assists and a career-high 8.0 rebounds per game--with phenomenal percentages. He drilled a staggering 56.5 percent of his field goals. Even more impressively, James developed into a legitimate three-point threat by shooing above 40 percent from downtown. The only knock on James is that he's still just an average free throw shooter, but if he ever gets his FT% on the right side of 80 he'll be complete as a basketball player.

PF Tim Duncan (24.4 PER)
The soon-to-be-37-year-old enjoyed a renaissance season of sorts, proving that he still has plenty left in the tank. In addition to his usual elite interior defense (highest DRating and third-most blocks per game), Duncan averaged 17.8 points, 9.9 boards and 2.7 dimes per game while shooting north of 50 percent from the floor, helping pick up the slack for a diminished Manu Ginobili. What's more, the Big Fundamental posted the highest free throw percentage--81.7 percent--of his illustrious 16-year career.

C Brook Lopez (24.7 PER)
I thought long and hard about Marc Gasol here, but in the end their PER differential was too great to overlook. Lopez posted the fifth-best PER in the NBA behind James, Durant, Paul, and Carmelo Anthony. Despite logging just 30.4 minutes per game, the league's most polished center still averaged 19.4 points per game on 52.1 percent shooting. He also stepped up his game on the defensive end where he swatted a career-best 2.1 shots per game. His rebounding remains unimpressive for a seven-footer, but to be fair he was more active on the boards this year and reversed a two-year trend of plummeting rebound totals.