The Brothers Upton

Justin Upton has surpassed his big brother B.J., and it's not even close

Ask any knowledgeable baseball fan which Upton brother is better and he will tell you, without any hesitation, that the answer is Justin Upton.

Although their profiles look almost identical--five tool outfielders with long swings, good pop, and the kind of speed that can make scouts drool--and their early careers (can't miss prospects drafted out of high school, youngest players in the Show when they were called up, and heralded as future stars) Justin is obviously the superior player right now because he leads B.J. in every offensive category except for walks and steals.  The younger Upton, a legitimate MVP candidate this season, tops the Senior Circuit in doubles and total bases and is only one steal and a handful of hits short of his second 20/20 and .300 average campaign in the last three years.  He's riding a month-long hot streak (his brother has gone the other way with a .175 average and just two big flies since July 17th) and has helped vault Arizona to the top of the NL West with his steady bat, proving once again that his absence from Prince Fielder's home run derby squad was a glaring omission.  Sure, Justin was a disappointment last year when he regressed in every category besides walks and he's leading outfielders in errors for the third time, but even his down 2010 and occasionally erratic fielding look much better than what his older brother has been doing in Tampa Bay for the last few years.

B.J. Upton seems to have become a perennial disappointment because he clearly possesses all the tools, but has yet to put them together.  To make matters worse, he's stubborn, immature and clashes with management and teammates such as Evan Longoria, especially when they rightfully question his lack of effort and focus.  It's become easy to forget that in 2007, when B.J. was the same age Justin is this season, the elder Upton appeared to be on the brink of superstardom when he hit .300, cracked 24 homers and swiped 22 bases for the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays.  He struck out a lot (as does Justin), but also worked 65 walks so he was by no means a free swinger a la Miguel Tejada.  His future seemed bright and he was primed to become the biggest talent on a team that included Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena fresh off a career year.

But alas, he has yet to realize that overflowing potential and with each oh-for-four line the chasm between what he is and what he should be grows a bit wider.  Unfortunately, the former second overall pick of the 2002 draft has been labeled as an underachiever, a gifted player content to coast on his abundant natural ability without putting in the hard work that could make him an elite player.  He still works his walks and the 40+ steals every year are nice, but his middling power, massive strikeout numbers and plunging batting averages have torpedoed what is supposed to be the prime of his career.  He's never been selected to an All-Star team, received any MVP consideration or taken home any hardware in the form of Silver Sluggers, Gold Gloves or World Series rings.  His monster 2008 ALDS and ALCS teased us by providing a breathtaking glimpse of B.J.'s ability to get in the zone and take his game to new heights.  But he just doesn't reach them often enough, and based on his OPS+ figures he rates about average at the dish.  While he's become a more intelligent basestealer and plus defender he just isn't worth the lengthy slumps and constant headaches.  The Rays, clearly frustrated with his lack of progress, shopped him before the deadline and will likely try again during the winter, and if they can move him it will be the best for both sides.  B.J. is a substantially better hitter away from Tropicana Field and a change of scenery would likely do him some good.  Although a jump to superstar-caliber player seems unlikely, Bossman Junior is still only 27 and could make a significant leap to, say, 2007 B.J. Upton if he could play half his games every year in a more hitting-friendly venue or even a neutral park.  Who knows? Maybe he'd be more motivated and would try harder if he played some place where fans actually show up to games every now and then, but I just don't see him ever reaching his ceiling.

As for Justin, the sky's the limit.  Unlike his brother, he is mature for his age and has embraced the role of a team leader.  The D-Backs have the two time All-Star under contract through 2015 at an affordable $8.5 million per year, and at the moment it looks like a great investment.  Justin seems to be getting better and has made some great strides this season by cutting down on his whiffs and flashing even more power (probably due to an elevated fly ball rate) than he did in his '09 breakout season.  He's been able to stay on the field more this year after missing substantial time in each of the past two seasons, and as a result is on pace to set career highs in just about everything.  2011 will probably just be the first of multiple 30-100-100-.300-20 seasons, and he might even threaten 40/40 once he hits his prime.   

But if the career arc of B.J. Upton has taught us anything, it's this; don't count your chickens before they hatch.