Chiefs Finally Fall

The Kansas City Chiefs, probably the worst 9-0 team in NFL history, are undefeated no more.

It took 11 weeks before they were finally beaten. Fittingly enough, KC was dethroned by the Denver Broncos, the second best team in the NFL entering last night's game as well as the least team to beat the Chiefs (in 2012). This time KC fell behind early and never led, allowing Denver to go on to win 27-17.

Kansas City's top-ranked defense was unable to put much pressure on Peyton Manning, who completed 24 of his 40 pass attempts en route to 323 yards and a touchdown (to Julius Thomas). Alex Smith was solid but less effective, completing 21 of his 45 pass attempts for 230 yards and a pair of touchdowns, one to the recently arrested Dwayne Bowe and another to Anthony Fasano.

Denver's defense played paricularly well, holding Jamaal Charles scoreless and not allowing any of KC's receivers to log more than 60 yards. The Broncos' D also sacked Smith three times and forced two fumbles, recovering one of them.

Now that Denver has knocked off the Chiefs, expect the Broncos to go about their business of winning the AFC West.

The Myers-McCovey Connection

Since Wil Myers was named American League Rookie of the Year on Monday, several writers have mentioned that Myers was the first position player to win the award while playing in fewer than 100 games.

That didn't sound right to me, and after some investigation I figured out why. Myers was the first AMERICAN LEAGUE player to win the award and appear in fewer than 100 games, and even that is barely true. 1994 Rookie of the Year Bob Hamelin logged 101 games during the strike-shortened campaign.

My research revealed that not one, but two National League position players have won the award despite playing fewer than 100 games. Most recently, there was Bob Horner in 1978. Horner smashed 23 home runs and knocked in 63 runs in just 89 games, an impressive power barrage that helped him surpass Ozzie Smith in the voting.

The one I was thinking of, though, was Willie McCovey, who won the 1959 trophy despite playing only 52 games--barely a third of a season. But Stretch was so ridiculously productive in that short time, hitting .354/.429/.656 with 13 home runs, that the writers had to recognize his awesomeness. McCovey rewarded them by putting together a Hall of Fame career in the two decades that followed, proving that his two month stretch of dominance was no fluke.

Something tells me Myers isn't a fluke either. Like McCovey, he's probably destined for Cooperstown.

MVP?

For the second year in a row, Miguel Cabrera has won a Most Valuable Player award that he did not deserve. For the second year in a row Mike Trout, who was far and away baseball's most valuable player (this year and last), will go home empty-handed.

For all of his gaudy offensive numbers--his .348/.442/.634 batting line, his 1.078 OPS, his 187 OPS+ (all of which led the major leagues, by the way)--Miguel Cabrera was not the American League's most valuable player this year. He wasn't last year, either. According to WAR, Miguel Cabrera has never been his league's most valuable player, or even its second most valuable player. He's never been the league's most valuable position player, either. He was third once (this year), fourth once (last year) and fifth once (2011). And yet he has not one, but two MVP awards.

Last year he won the Triple Crown, something nobody had done since 1967, and I'm sure the writers felt some pressure to honor that achievement with an MVP award. How would they be able to justify not giving him the award? So they played up his team's postseason status and his willingness to change positions to accommodate Prince Fielder and his countless big hits down the stretch, conveniently ignoring the indisputable fact that Trout was baseball's best player by a huge margin.

This year the reasoning was very similar. Detroit made the playoffs, the Angels didn't. Cabrera hit even better than he did in 2012. He didn't win the Triple Crown again, but was in the running for much of the season before injuries slowed him down in September, allowing Chris Davis to capture both the home run and RBI crowns.

That Cabrera is the sport's best hitter is unquestioned. Joey Votto has his supporters and David Ortiz was impossible to get out in the World Series, but Cabrera's clearly the best. But baseball is more than hitting. Trout, who's a really really good hitter but just a notch below Cabrera, makes up that ground (quite literally) with his legs.  When it comes to speed Trout blows away Cabrera, who's a bad baserunner and an even worse defender at a key position. Trout is so much better at the other aspects of the game that he's worth multiple more wins to his team per season than Cabrera is.

But baseball writers, people who are paid to watch and write about baseball, don't see this. I guess they're missing something. (Side note, the person who voted Trout seventh on their ballot should have their voting privileges revoked. To not have Trout in your top three, let alone your top five, is indefensible).

In a much less infuriating vote, Andrew McCutchen was named the NL's Most Valuable Player, becoming the first Pittsburgh Pirate to take home the trophy since Barry Bonds did so in 1990. Funny thing was, McCutchen won despite dropping off considerably from last year, when he finished third behind Buster Posey and Ryan Braun. Despite playing the same number of games and recording one additional plate appearance this year, 'Cutch hit ten fewer home runs, knocked in 12 fewer runs, scored ten fewer runs, and compiled 32 fewer total bases. He lost ten points on his batting average, 45 points on his slugging percentage and 42 points off his OPS. He grounded into more double plays.

It just goes to show you can't control how the other players in your league perform. Sometimes you have a great year and you're not the most valuable player, but even if you slip a bit you can still be MVP the next year. I think of Alex Rodriguez, whose lone MVP from his three magnificent seasons with Texas came after what was clearly the worst of the three.

And yet, because McCutchen played better defense and ran the bases better (sound familiar?) than he did in 2012, he was actually a more valuable baseball player this year, worth 8.2 bWAR this season compared to 7.2 in 2012. With all due respect to Votto, Clayton Kershaw, and Matt Carpenter, McCutchen was the true MVP this year, especially when you factor in his role of helping Pittsburgh snap its string of 20 consecutive losing seasons. There's no way the Pirates sniff the playoffs without him.

Here's what really bugs me though. The NL race was almost identical to the American League race, with McCutchen and Paul Goldschmidt standing in for lesser versions of Trout and Cabrera. Goldschmidt was the Senior Circuit's top hitter, leading the league in home runs, RBI, slugging, OPS, OPS+, total bases, and extra base hits. McCutchen's numbers were less impressive, but because he's the complete package he out-WARed Arizona's slugging first-baseman.

So if Trout and Cabrera are McCutchen and Goldschmidt on steroids (figuratively speaking), then why didn't Trout win? The only thing I can think of is that McCutchen was part of a much more compelling narrative. He was the best player on a team that made the playoffs, which nobody saw coming. Trout was the best player on a team that massively underachieved and was an afterthought for much of the season. Too much attention was paid to what went wrong with the Angels (Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols sucking, no pitching) than the amazing feats Trout was performing on the diamond everyday.

I guess my point is that the MVP award has a lot to do with context. Context has not been kind to Mike Trout these past few years, but context is ever-changing. Conventional wisdom says he's still young, and thus has plenty of time to win multiple MVP awards. I hope he does. I hope someday he gets recognized for what he is: the best player in baseball.

Cy Youngs Follow Script

Scherzer was baseball's most winning-est pitcher in 2013 

To nobody's surprise, Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw were named Cy Young winners yesterday.

Scherzer, who had never received any Cy Young consideration in any of his previous five seasons, steamrolled to the trophy on the strength of his 21-3 record and league-best 0.97 WHIP. Removing his stellar record from the equation still leaves him with impressive credentials: 240 strikeouts, a 2.90 ERA and 6.7 pitching WAR. Though he got off to a rocky start, he emerged as the favorite over the summer as his win total mounted (he won his first 13 decisions), the strikeouts piled up (he had eight starts with at least ten) and his ERA dropped with each passing month. He started the All-Star Game and delivered a scoreless inning, striking out Joey Votto and contributing to the American League's 3-0 shutout of the Senior Circuit.

Unlike many pitchers who put together excellent first halves, only to fall off after the All-S-Star Break (Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010, R.A. Dickey to some extent last year), Scherzer did not let up. After winning his 19th game on August 24th, though, it took him four weeks and six starts for him to earn win number 20 (on September 20th, fittingly enough). Though wins and losses are a terrible way to gauge pitchers, his record was a good indication of how well the Tigers played when he was on the mound. They were 25-7 (.781) when he started. That's the definition of an ace.

(For those who care about such things, Scherzer's winning percentage has gone up every year he's been in the big leagues, from his winless 2008 up to his ML-best .875 mark in 2013. I think it's safe to say that trend won't continue next year.)

What was odd about the American League voting was how the remaining pair of first place votes were split by Anibal Sanchez and Chris Sale, both of whom finished outside the top three (fourth and fifth, respectively). Whiff-machine and preseason award favorite Yu Darvish was runner-up largely because of his gigantic strikeout total (277 in 209 and two-thirds innings pitched, which translates to 11.9 K/9). Hisashi Iwakuma was third, posting excellent numbers across the board and leading all AL hurlers in pitching WAR. Other players receiving votes were Bartolo Colon, Koji Uehara, Felix Hernandez, Greg Holland, Matt Moore, and James Shields.

Kershaw's dominance is reminiscent of Sandy Koufax's run in the mid-1960s

Kershaw handily won his second Cy in three years (and probably should have won last year, too) with all but one first place votes going his way. Kershaw was an easy choice after leading the major leagues with a sparkling 1.83 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He also led the National League in strikeouts, shutouts, and pitching WAR. It seems safe to say that he's inherited the title of Best Pitcher on the Planet from Justin Verlander, who had a down season by his lofty standards and may not be the same now that he's on the wrong side of 30. That should help him in his quest to become baseball's first $200 million pitcher as he pursues a contract extension this winter.

The one dissenting first place vote went to runner-up Adam Wainwright, who topped both leagues in starts, innings pitched, and complete games but with an ERA (2.94) more than one full run higher than Kershaw's. Wainwright, who also won an NL-best 19 games, has managed three top-three finishes in his past four seasons but has yet to capture the award. NL Rookie of the Year Jose Fernandez finished third. Matt Harvey and Craig Kimbrel tied for fourth, which means Cliff Lee's quietly outstanding season was not deemed worthy of a top five finish in the eyes of the voters. Jordan Zimmerman, Zack Greinke, Madison Bumgarner and Francisco Liriano (he's back!) rounded out the voting.

Francona, Hurdle Top Managers

Terry Francona and Clint Hurdle were named Managers of the Year today after leading their respective teams to impressive turnarounds and postseason berths.

Following a one-year hiatus in the broadcast booth, Francona returned to the dugout and guided Cleveland to 92 wins and the American League's top Wild Card spot. Few expected the Indians to contend in the wake of a miserable 2012 that saw them lose 94 games, but Francona's touch (as well as key additions like Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and Scott Kazmir) helped Cleveland reach the playoffs for the first time since 2007. Francona's 2011 Red Sox famously choked away their all-but-guaranteed playoff spot by going 7-20 in September, but this year he flipped the script. Cleveland went 21-6 in September, winning ten in a row to close out the regular season and nearly catch Detroit in the AL Central. They were unable to carry that momentum into their Wild Card playoff game, however, falling to Tampa Bay 4-0.

This selection was a bit of an upset, as many predicted John Farrell would win the award after taking Boston from worst to first. Farrell did a commendable job in the aftermath of the Bobby Valentine fiasco, but he also inherited a much more talented roster than Francona did. Boston's payroll was roughly twice that of Cleveland, meaning Francona had to make do with far less. Both teams drastically exceeded expectations, but the Indians overachieved more so than the re-tooled Red Sox, who made significant upgrades over the winter (Mike Napoli, Shane Victorino) and enjoyed a good deal of positive regression to the mean (such as healthy years from David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, and John Lackey). Cleveland finished one game behind the Tigers. Who could have seen that coming?

The National League selection was much easier. Clint Hurdle helmed the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that had not experienced a winning season since 1992, to 94 wins and the NL's top Wild Card slot. Hurdle oversaw the two most recent of those losing years, both of which were heartbreaking disasters that saw Pittsburgh contend for much of the summer, only to fall flat on its face in August and September.

This time around, Hurdle helped them get over the hump. There was no late-season collapse, no slipping on the banana peel just before the finish line. They battled St. Louis for the division crown all summer long and were in first place as late as September 16th, but settled for the Wild Card when they were unable to hold off the Cardinals. The same thing happened in the NLDS when Pittsburgh took a 2-1 series lead, only to let St. Louis storm back and win the series behind the stellar pitching of Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright.

Oh well. There's always next year.