Giants Grab Series Lead

San Francisco won Game 1 behind a brilliant start from Madison Bumgarner (WSOCTV)

The Royals' postseason winning streak of 11 (dating back to the 1985 World Series) was snapped last night as Kansas City lost Game 1 of the World Series, 7-1. The San Francisco Giants, making their third World Series appearance in five years, earned a decisive Game 1 victory on the road to open the Series.

The Royals' meek offense was no match for Giants' ace Madison Bumgarner, who held them to three hits and one run over seven stellar innings. The southpaw continued his month-long run of dominance, lowering his ERA in these playoffs to a microscopic 1.40 while improving his career postseason record to 6-3.

Meanwhile, "Big Game" James Shields failed to live up to his reputation once again, as he was bombed for five runs and seven hits in three innings. Shields struggled from the get-go, allowing hits to five of the first six batters he faced as San Francisco jumped out to an early 3-0 lead. He seemed to settle down with 1-2-3 innings in the second and third, only to unravel again in the fourth. Hunter Pence stroked a leadoff double, Brandon Belt followed with a walk, and Michael Morse singled to drive Pence home.

That was all for Shields, who saw his postseason ERA swell to 5.74 with the poor outing. Danny Duffy came on in relief and walked in a run before getting himself out of a bases loaded, one out jam.

But the damage was done. The Giants would have all the runs they would need on a night when Bumgarner was practically unhittable. San Francisco padded its lead to 7-0 in the seventh, and when Salvador Perez touched MadBum for a solo shot in the bottom half of the frame the game was already out of reach. Bumgarner departed after 106 pitches, having struck out five against only one walk, and the Giants bullpen took it from there.

Tonight's Game 2 becomes a must-win for the Royals, who need to even the series before traveling to San Francisco for Games 3, 4, and 5. They'll send young Yordano Ventura, their 23 year-old flamethrowing rookie, to the mound against Jake Peavy, a major league veteran of 13 years. Peavy, pitching in the Fall Classic for the second year in a row, has been a revelation since being traded from Boston in late July. Ventura was excellent in his ALDS start but struggled against Baltimore in the ALCS, so it's tough to say how he'll perform in his first World Series start. Peavy's on a roll, with a 2.14 ERA since joining San Francisco, and will look to maintain that momentum against a meager Royals lineup that managed just four hits against his teammates last night.

In a matchup of young versus old, Kansas City needs its youth to step up, otherwise there may not be another game at Kaufmann Stadium this year after tonight.

Commemorating Chavez

Over the summer, at the height of Derek Jeter's much-ballyhooed retirement tour, Eric Chavez quietly retired, bringing an end to his 17-year major league career. While age and injuries reduced Chavez to a part-time player during the second half of his career, it's important to remember just how good he was during the first half. Had he just been able to stay healthy, his resume would probably be Hall of Fame worthy. As it is, it resembles something of a poor man's Scott Rolen; strong defense at third base complemented by good power and on-base ability, but a boatload of injuries later in the career. Rolen also happens to be Chavez's most similar batter through age 30, not surprisingly.

Drafted out of high school by the Oakland A's with the 10th pick of the 1996 draft, Chavez made his major league debut two years later. The year after that, he was Oakland's everyday third baseman. After a solid showing as a rookie, Chavez broke out in 2000 with 26 dingers and an .850 OPS, beginning a run of seven straight 20-homer seasons. He would max out at 34 in 2002, the year he won his only Silver Slugger and netted his highest MVP finish (14th) as part of the famed "Moneyball" A's squad. He produced nearly identical numbers the following year, led the league in walks with 95 in 2004, and enjoyed his fourth 100 RBI season in 2005. 2006 marked a bit of a decline for Chavez, as his average tumbled to .241, but he still posted a .351 OBP, smacked 22 home runs, and won his sixth straight Gold Glove.

Because he was basically replacement level for the last eight years of his career, I don't think people remember or appreciate just how good Chavez was at his peak. He was the American League's answer to Scott Rolen. From 2000 through 2005, when he averaged 30 homers and 98 RBI per year while winning five Gold Gloves, he was practically even in terms of value with Manny Ramirez and ahead of guys like Derek Jeter, Carlos Beltran, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Delgado, and Sammy Sosa. He never had that one monster MVP-caliber season or even made an All-Star team, but consistently stayed in the five-win range for half a decade. Had he been able to do that through the rest of the decade into his early 30s, would be discussing his Hall chances right now.

Because through 2006, his age-28 season, Chavez had already piled up 1,143 hits, 245 doubles, 212 home runs, 716 RBI, and 2,060 total bases. His 32.5 fWAR were within one of Chipper Jones at the same age and within two of Wade Boggs and Brooks Robinson. His 212 long balls ranked eighth of all third sackers through age 28, ahead of Dick Allen, Jim Thome, and Mike Schmidt, among others. His 716 RBI were seventh. And with six Gold Gloves already under his belt, Chavez appeared well on his way to Cooperstown.

Then, injuries. First it was debilitating back pain, followed later on by crippling knee ailments. After averaging 144 games per year from 1999 through 2006, Chavez never again played more than 115 games in a season. He played 90 games in 2007, 23 the year after that, and just eight in 2009. In 2010, his 13th and final year with Oakland, he suited up for only 33 games. His performance declined steadily during that time as various injuries took their toll. Worse, he became an enormous bust for the A's, collecting $45 million in player salaries over those final four years in Oakland, during which time he contributed -0.3 fWAR, damning him for all eternity as one of Billy Beane's worst investments.

Those four lost prime years effectively murdered whatever chance Chavez had the Hall, but incredibly they did not end his career. The Yankees, seeking backup for an aging Alex Rodriguez, scooped him up at a bargain bin price. Chavez was a non-factor in his first season with the Bronx (2011) but enjoyed a resurgent 2012 with 16 homers and an .845 OPS in 113 games. Chavez moved on to Arizona following New York's LCS elimination and continued to hit well there in spite of his old age, putting up an .810 OPS at age 35 and .795 at 36.

It was somewhat surprising, then, that Chavez retired midway through last season on July 30th. But the Diamondbacks were going nowhere and a knee injury had forced him to the disabled list. At 36, he was all done fighting his way back from injuries, so he forfeited the $1 million remaining on his contract and went home.

It's a shame we'll never know what Chavez would have accomplished had he stayed healthy. He was on track to be one of the 15, maybe even 10-best third basemen ever, at least on par with Rolen, Ken Boyer, and Ron Santo. Based on his early career trajectory, Chavez probably would have reached benchmarks such as 300 home runs and 2,000 hits, and may have added a few more Gold Gloves as well. As it is, his six Gold Gloves are tied with Buddy Bell and Robin Ventura for fourth-most all-time among third basemen, behind only Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, and Rolen. His career .970 fielding percentage is the fifth-highest at the position.

Chavez is not a Hall of Famer, but for awhile he played like one. It's just too bad things didn't turn out differently, because by all accounts he was one of the game's classier, most respected players. Nobody deserves to have their career ravaged by injuries, but Chavez especially.

2014 World Series Preview

San Francisco should win its third title this decade (InForum)

Six teams won at least 90 games in 2014. None of them are in the World Series. The Kansas City Royals, with 89 wins, are, and so are the San Francisco Giants--an 88-win club. And so the World Series will be without a 90-win team for the first time in a season not shortened by strike or war. Given that 10 teams make the playoffs now, it was only a matter of time, I suppose.

Both contestants are good teams, obviously, but neither can be considered the best in their division, let alone their league. The Giants didn't have a particularly good run differential at +51, but that was still better than the Royals at +27. There's a reason both teams were Wild Card entries.

But here they are, the last teams standing in their respective leagues. San Francisco is shooting for its third World Series title in five years. The Royals hope to cap their first playoff appearance since 1985 with a championship.

Who's the favorite, you ask? I say San Francisco, and not just because they're more seasoned when it comes to October baseball.

Offensively, the Giants are considerably better after adjusting for league and park. They outscored the Royals by 14 runs and posted a superior OPS (.699 to .690) despite playing in a tougher park and hitting pitchers much more frequently. Their on-base abilities are about even with the slight edge going to Kansas City (.314 OBP to San Fran's .311), but the Giants displayed much more power. They outhomered the Royals 132 to 95 and had six players exceed 10 home runs (the Royals had three). Kansas City is a much faster team with nearly three times as many stolen bases, but San Francisco is clearly more dangerous given their long ball ability via Buster Posey, Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval.

San Francisco touts the best starting pitcher in this series, 25 year-old Madison Bumgarner. MadBum's been lights-out in these playoffs, posting a 1.42 ERA and 28/5 K/BB ratio in four starts, of which the Giants have won three. He'll get the ball in Game 1 against James Shields in a matchup that favors San Fran, although perhaps not as much as one might think given that Kansas City fared better against southpaws during the regular season with a .710 OPS against lefties compared to .682 versus righties. The rest of the rotations shake out pretty evenly, but since San Fran's has better strikeout stuff I'll give the slight edge to them.

The Royals hold clear advantages on defense (especially with that outfield of Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, and Nori Aoki) and in the bullpen, where Greg Holland, Wade Davis, and Kevin Herrera have been unstoppable. San Francisco has a much smarter manager in Bruce Bochy, a Hall of Fame-bound skipper. Everyone knows Ned Yost is not a good manager, and that the Royals made the postseason in spite of him rather than because of him. I wouldn't be surprised if his blunders finally catch up to him in the biggest, most pressure-packed games of the season.

Prediction: Giants in 6

How the Royals Won the Pennant

I can't believe I'm writing this. The Royals have won the pennant. They are American League champs. Kansas City is hosting the World Series.

Nobody's been able to say that in 29 years. Not since 1985 have the Royals appeared in the Fall Classic (which they won, by the way, in seven games over the St. Louis Cardinals). The intervening three decades have not been kind to the team or its fans. As Joe Posnanski loves to remind us, they were filled with numerous boneheaded plays, poor personnel decisions, inadequate spending, questionable managing, and of course, many, many losses.

That generally terrible performance finally came to an end last year, when Kansas City won 86 games and stayed in contention for much of the season. They were a young team on the rise, loaded with talented position players, a shut-down bullpen, and just enough veteran pitching to hold it all together. Some, myself included, picked the Royals to make the playoffs, albeit as one of the two wild card teams.

Sure enough, that's what happened. KC wasn't good enough to prevent the Tigers from capturing their fourth straight division title, but as one of the five best teams in the American League they earned a postseason berth. Honestly, I didn't expect them to make it past the wild card playoff, much less all the way to the World Series.

But here we are, in the middle of October, and that's the situation we find ourselves in. The Kansas City Royals are the last team standing in the American League.

First they had to get by the Oakland A's, a superior team in every regard. They had to go through Jon Lester, one of the American League's best pitchers this year and an awesome postseason pitcher. They trailed 7-3 entering the bottom of the eighth inning. Somehow, they found a way to win in extra innings.

Then Kansas City was paired up with the star-studded Los Angeles Angels, the best team in baseball at 98-64. The Royals, an 89-win team, appeared to have little chance, especially after expending their ace, James Shields, in the play-in game. Somehow, they swept the Halos, winning the first two games in extra innings before routing Mike Trout and co. in Game 3.

In the ALCS the Royals were pitted against the Baltimore Orioles, winners of 96 games and the AL East. Baltimore boasted a fearsome lineup, one that led all of baseball in home runs. Except Baltimore's booming bats fell silent against the Royals, managing just two big flies (courtesy of Adam Jones and Ryan Flaherty) as they were swept in four games, all of which were decided by two runs or less.

Now the red-hot Royals, winners of their last eight, can catch their breath. They have nearly a week to rest uo as the NLCS is decided between San Francisco and St. Louis. Then, on October 21st, they will take the field at Kauffman Stadium as they get back to the business of bringing Kansas City its first World Series championship in three decades.

Remembering the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals

The '64 Cardinals: a model of integration and loaded with talent (The Baseball Page)

Piggybacking off this morning's post: here's a quick look at the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals team that won it all. Everyone remembers the Phillies' epic collapse that year, but St. Louis made it possible by forging an eight-game win streak in late September to pass Philadelphia, then win the final game of the season to avoid a three-way tie with Philly and Cincinnati.

Without further adieu. your 1964 World Series champions:

C Tim McCarver
McCarver was just 22 years-old but already in his fifth season with the Cards. He batted a very solid .288/.343/.400 while catching 137 games, good for 3.4 bWAR.

1B Bill White
White was one of the team's elder statesmen at 30, but still young enough to continue his run as the National League's top all-around first baseman. An All-Star for the fifth and final time, White won his fifth straight Gold Glove award in addition to batting .303/.355/.474. He finished third in the MVP race thanks to his strong counting numbers: 5.4 bWAR, 21 home runs, 102 RBI, 92 runs, 191 hits, 37 doubles, and 299 total bases.

2B Julian Javier
Javier was barely above replacement level due to his .644 OPS, though his 12 homers and 65 RBI were career-highs up to that point.

3B Ken Boyer
The major league RBI leader (with 119) was also the National League MVP, even if Dick Allen was clearly more deserving. Boyer was outstanding in his last great season, playing every game, batting .295/.365/.489, and compiling 6.1 bWAR. The All-Star third baseman also socked 24 homers, scored 100 runs, and racked up 307 total bases.

SS Dick Groat
The former MVP and batting champion with the Pirates was still among the league's best shortstops at 33. Had no power whatsoever (1 home run) but played all but one game and made the All-Star team for the fifth and final time. Batted .292/.335/.371 with more walks (44) then strikeouts (42). Also ripped 35 doubles.

LF Lou Brock
Acquired midseason from the Cubs via trade, Brock helped ignite the Cardinals to the pennant. The 25 year-old future Hall of Famer batted a scintillating .348/.387/.527 with 12 home runs and 33 steals in 103 games with St. Louis, contributing 5.7 bWAR while hitting out of the two hole.

CF Curt Flood
Flood made his first All-Star squad, won his second Gold Glove, and paced the National League with 211 hits. The Cards' leadoff hitter also batted .311, scored 97 runs, and was worth 4.7 bWAR.

RF Mike Shannon
"Moonman" missed most of the first half with injuries but rebounded with a healthy second half to finish the year with a solid .261/.315/.410 line.

Bench

LF Charlie James
The starting left fielder displaced by Brock, James was relegated to pinch-hitting duties after the trade.

RF Carl Warwick
Warwick helped cover for Shannon while he was out and provided a close approximation of Shannon's slash lines at .259/.306/.373.

RF Bob Skinner
A midseason trade to the Cardinals, Skinner supplemented Shannon in right and was also used as a pinch-hitter.

Rotation

SP Bob Gibson
A pitcher on the rise in '64, Gibson was still a few years away from becoming "Bob Gibson." That said, he was still an incredible talent. His 287 innings, 3.01 ERA, 245 strikeouts and 2.85 K/BB ratio topped the rotation. He also won 19 games, completed 17 of his 36 starts, and was worth six wins above replacement.

SP Curt Simmons
At 35 and in his 17th big league season, Simmons wasn't blowing hitters away (3.8 K/9) but was still crafty enough to fool them. He also had impeccable control, with only 1.8 BB/9. How else do you explain how he completed 244 innings, won 18 games and went the distance in 12 starts?

SP Ray Sadecki
The team's lone 20 game winner, Sadecki was a 23 year-old southpaw still finding his way in the big leagues. He tossed 220 innings but was clearly the team's third-best starter behind Gibson and Simmons.

SP Roger Craig
After a couple rough years with the Mets, Craig appeared to enjoy pitching for a contender. Between his 19 starts and 20 relief appearances, Craig contributed 166 innings of 3.25 ERA-ball.

SP Ernie Broglio
Was pitching decently (3.50 ERA in 11 starts) before being traded for Brock.

SP Ray Washburn
Pitched very well in May and June with a 3.29 ERA in his 10 starts. Was shifted to the bullpen afterwards and struggled there, allowing eight earned runs in only five appearances.

Bullpen

CL Barney Schultz
The aging knuckleballer had a sparkling 1.64 ERA and 0.93 WHIP during the regular season, but he'll always be remembered for giving up Mickey Mantle's walk-off blast in Game 3.

RP Ron Taylor
Led Cardinal relievers with 63 appearances and 101 innings, but was very effective with a 4.62 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

RP Mike Cuellar
Before he was a 20-game winner and anchor of those great Baltimore Orioles rotations under Earl Weaver, he was a rookie reliever with a 4.50 ERA in 72 innings. Talk about an inauspicious beginning.

RP Bob Humphreys
One of the team's most effective relievers with a 2.53 ERA in 28 appearances.

RP Gordie Richardson
Like Humphreys. very effective (2.30 ERA) in limited action (47 innings)

Manager

Johnny Keane
In his fourth year at the helm of the Cardinals, Keane led them to a repeat of their 1963 record (93-69). While that was only good enough for second place in '63, in '64 it won the pennant. He was on the hot seat for much of the season before his team improbably passed the Phillies in the final weeks of the season. Shockingly, Keane resigned after winning the Series, a decision he'd made in late September at the height of the pennant race. He would manage the Yankees in 1965, replacing Yogi Berra.

After examining both rosters, I think the Cardinals had a better team even though they won fewer games. St. Louis's starting lineup was stronger and more balanced, and stayed healthy enough to prevent Keane from relying on his weak bench. Pound for pound the rotation was just as good as New York's, though the bullpen was definitely weaker. Overall the Yankees had more depth, but St. Louis had more players in their prime and more "stars". Their best players were better than New York's, even if their worst players were worse than New York's. Accordingly, I am not surprised the Cards took the Series in 7.

McCarver, Boyer, and Gibson celebrate (I70Baseball)