Showing posts with label Third Base. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Third Base. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Sox Lose Another Legend

Malzone passed away yesterday. He was 85 (Boston Herald)
It's been a rough week for Red Sox legends. On Sunday, Dave Henderson died. Yesterday, Frank Malzone joined him in the great big diamond in the sky.

Whereas Henderson was remembered mostly for one swing, Malzone never had a career-defining moment. He was just a steady third base man for the better part of the decade, one of the best Red Sox during their dark days of the late '50s and early '60s. A slick-fielding, solid-hitting third baseman, Malzone was a Mike Lowell-type destined to be overshadowed by superstar teammates Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski.

Despite not doing much to distinguish himself off the field, Malzone did plenty to earn recognition in between the lines. After spending seven seasons in the minors and two years in the military during the Korean War, Malzone debuted with a flourish in 1957, batting .292 with 15 homers and a career high 103 RBI. The first time All-Star and finished second to Tony Kubek in the Rookie of the Year race--an award Malzone deserved to win--but placed seventh in the MVP vote.

Malzone also won his first Gold Glove--the first ever awarded to an American League third baseman. He won the next two as well before Brooks Robinson came along and won 16 straight from 1960-1975 (Who knows how many Malzone might have won had Robinson played in the National League?). Only six men--Robinson, Buddy Bell, Gary Gaetti, Robin Ventura, Eric Chavez, and Adrian Beltre--won more while manning the hot corner for an AL team.

Malzone was more than just a terrific gloveman, however; he was also a pretty decent hitter (thanks to Fenway Park, where he batted .298/.339/.442 for his career). Most years he was good for a .280-ish average, 15 or so homers, and around 80 RBI. You could also count on him to be in the lineup everyday; from 1957-1964, no American Leaguer played more games. It was that kind of solid production and consistency that made him a six-time All-Star during this span, though it helped that the top third basemen at the time (Eddie Mathews, Ken Boyer, Ron Santo) played in the National League.

After dropping off sharply in 1965, the 35 year-old Malzone was released on the last day of November (he didn't remain a free agent for long, however, as the California Angels signed him the same day). After an even worse season with the Angels in 1966, Malzone hung up his spikes for good.

In 1995, 30 years after his last game with the Red Sox, Malzone was one of 14 players inducted into the franchise's inaugural Hall of Fame class, along with former teammates Williams, Yastrzemski, and Tony Conigliaro. Maybe someday the Sox will retire his 11, which he wore from 1956 to 1965. Clay Buchholz is currently wearing it, but should he leave after next season Boston would do well to add it to their line of numbers along Fenway's right field roof.

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Sox to Retire Boggs's Number

Boston should have retired Boggs's number a long time ago (Scuffed Balls)
More than two decades after playing his last game for the Boston Red Sox, Wade Boggs will have his number 26 retired at Fenway Park next spring.

This honor has been a long time coming for Boggs, who was inducted into the Red Sox Hall of Fame in 2004 and the National Baseball Hall of Fame one year later. It's strange the Sox didn't retire his number when he was elected to Cooperstown in 2005, given that they retired the numbers of Jim Rice and Pedro Martinez the same summers they were enshrined. It's also weird that they didn't stop giving out his number after he left the Sox, as they did with Martinez's 45 and Roger Clemens's 21.

And yet, it's fitting that Boston took so long to give him his due, given that he was never properly appreciated during his time there. Like Ted Williams before him and Joey Votto nowadays, Boggs was frequently criticized for being too passive at the plate, especially with men on base. People viewed him as a selfish hitter because he won batting titles and took walks, but never hit for much power or drove in many runs. His unwillingness to expand the strike zone or swing from the heels when the situation called for it drove fans nuts, making him seem more interested in padding his own stats rather than helping the Red Sox win.

Of course, nothing could have been further from the truth. Boggs was the ideal table-setter, an on-base machine who often put himself in scoring position via doubles (he clubbed 578 for his career). His job was not to knock in runs but to score them, which he did exceptionally well by averaging 100 runs scored per 162 games and twice leading the majors.

Everyone knew Boggs was a tremendous hitter, but few understood his true worth as a ballplayer. His gaudy OBPs and plus defense at the hot corner (which wasn't recognized until later, when he won back-to-back Gold Gloves in his late 30s) made him incredibly valuable. Baseball-Reference defines an MVP-caliber season as one where a player accrues at least eight wins above replacement, which Boggs did every year from 1985 to 1989. But frustrated Bostonians weren't the only ones underrating Boggs, who never finished higher than fourth in MVP voting. Moneyball was still two decades away, and nobody had WAR to tell them he was the American League's top position player in 1986, 1987, and 1988.

Of course, Boggs may not have been had he played elsewhere. He was helped immensely by Fenway Park, whose Green Monster allowed him to wait back on pitches until the last possible second, at which point he would flick his wrists and stroke another double or single off the wall in left. Nobody did this better than Boggs, who holds the highest Fenway average of all-time at .369. That was especially true before the EMC Club--then called the 600 Club--was erected in 1989, altering the wind currents within the park and making it much less favorable for hitters. It's no coincidence that Boggs never won another batting title after 1988.

Age and the 600 Club caused Boggs to tail off a bit in the early '90s, but his final year in Boston--1992--was the worst of his career. He slumped to .259/.353/.358 as the Sox sunk to last place. His contract was up and Lou Gorman, Boston's general manager at the time, let the 34-year-old walk, even though he was just one year removed from a .332/.421/.460 campaign in which he was worth 6.4 bWAR.

That proved to be a terrible mistake, as Boggs found a second wind with Boston's arch-rivals, the New York Yankees. Boggs batted .313/.396/.407 in his five years in pinstripes, making four All-Star teams and helping the Bombers to a championship in 1996--10 years after his previous World Series bid ended in agony. Following his New York stint he returned home to finish out his playing days in Tampa Bay, where he ended his career on a high note by batting .301 and notching his 3,000th hit on his 118th, and final, home run.

Boggs retired in 1999 as one of the five best third basemen in baseball history. His .328 lifetime average is the second-highest of anyone's career who began after World War II, while his .415 OBP ranks fifth among players who have debuted since 1945 and appeared in at least 2,000 games. He was an eight-time Silver Slugger winner, a five-time batting champion, and an All-Star every year from 1985 to 1996. His most impressive accomplishment, however, was batting .401 over a 162-game span from June 9th, 1985 to June 6th, 1986.

The Red Sox have gotten better about hanging up numbers recently, with four of their nine retired numbers coming since 2008. Hopefully that means they'll be ready to add more to the right field roof deck in the near future, as there's no shortage of deserving candidates. Or space.

Saturday, November 7, 2015

Ramirez Retires

Ramirez is retiring after 18 seasons (NBC Sports)
Another very good but not quite Hall of Fame level player retired recently as baseball waved goodbye to Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez joined Torii Hunter, who retired last week, in deciding to call it quits.

There are actually quite a few parallels between their careers, besides the fact that they hung up their spikes 10 days apart. Ramirez, like Hunter, finished his career where it started--Hunter with the Twins and Ramirez with the Pirates. Hunter was a lifelong American Leaguer who spent the bulk of his career in the AL Central, while Ramirez never left the NL Central.

Their career arcs are eerily similar as well, as both struggled for a few years before breaking out in 2001. After that they remained excellent players for more than a decade, aging remarkably well and putting up similar numbers year after year. Though both made multiple postseason appearances, neither ever played in a World Series, much less won one.

And just look how close their numbers are:

Hunter: 19 yrs 498 2B 351 HR 1,391 RBI 661 BB .277/.331/.461 (110 OPS+) 4,087 TB
Ramirez: 18 yrs 495 2B 386 HR 1,417 RBI 633 BB .283/.341/.492 (115 OPS+) 4,004 TB

Ramirez debuted with Pittsburgh at 19 in 1998. Predictably, his first few years were rough as he struggled to adjust to major league pitching, but in 2001 he blossomed into one of the best-hitting third-sackers in the game. In his first full season, Ramirez mashed 34 home runs, knocked in 112, and batted a robust .300/.350/.536 (122 OPS+).

Nowadays, such a season would merit serious MVP consideration, an All-Star berth, and a Silver Slugger. But back in 2001, when cartoonishly big sluggers were putting up videogame numbers, Ramirez got no recognition of any kind. That would become a troubling trend for Ramirez, long one of the game's most under-appreciated stars (except when the fans gave him a completely undeserved Hank Aaron award in 2008).

After failing to replicate those numbers in 2002 and the first half of 2003, Pittsburgh sent him and Kenny Lofton to the Cubbies for Jose Hernandez, a minor leaguer, and a player to be named later. It's trades like that which explain how the Pirates went 20 years between winning seasons.
Ramirez was just coming into his prime. He flourished in Chicago, taking advantage of Wrigley's friendly confines (where he was a career .307/.372/.551 hitter) to emerge as an annual 30-100-.300 threat. While he wasn't the most durable player, exceeding 150 games in a season just once after leaving Pittsburgh, he always hit when he did play.

After eight and a half productive years in Chicago, Ramirez signed on with the Milwaukee Brewers before the 2012 season. Following a stellar debut with the Brew Crew, he began to decline as he reached his mid-30s. With Milwaukee rebuilding and his skills eroding, the Brewers had no need for their expensive, over-the-hill third baseman.

So this year, which Ramirez had already acknowledged would be his last, Milwaukee dealt him to a resurgent Pirates franchise, giving him one last shot at World Series glory. Like most last-ditch efforts to procure a ring, this one didn't work out. Ironically, it was Ramirez's former team, the cursed Cubs, that got in the way. In what would be the last at-bat of his career, Ramirez grounded into an inning-ending double play. Somehow, that seems appropriate.
Circling back to Hunter, Ramirez also fell short of a few big milestones. He ends his career 14 homers shy of 400, five doubles short of 500, and 83 RBI away from 1,500. Even so, his numbers are outstanding for a third baseman; he ranks 10th in the position for home runs, doubles, and RBI.

The three-time All-Star never quite got the credit he deserved for being such a tremendous hitter year-in and year-out, probably because he was playing in the shadow of superior third basemen such as Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Chipper Jones, and Adrian Beltre. In terms of career offensive production at the position, however, few were ever better. 

Monday, October 26, 2015

Expanding Cooperstown's Circle

Simmons really should be in the Hall of Fame (I70 Baseball)
Interesting piece over at the Hardball Times got me thinking about the Hall of Fame, which I usually don't do for a few more months (when the ballots come out). Anyways, I thought it was cool how balanced the Hall is in regards to the number of players represented at each position. John pointed out that two positions--catcher and third base--are significantly underrepresented in Cooperstown, however, with just 16 enshrined at each position compared to the 21-24 at every other position (excluding pitchers).

I guess that's not too surprising when you think about it. Backstops tend to have shorter careers and their counting numbers are suppressed due to the toll catching takes on their bodies. On top of that, they typically can't play full seasons due to the off-days catching demands. Plus, until recently, we didn't have a good way of measuring defense at the position beyond caught stealing rates and passed balls. Pitch framing data has completely changed the way we evaluate catchers, but for a long time all we had to go on was the eye test.

As for the hot corner, well, it's a tricky position. It's not as tough to play as second base or shortstop, but still considerably harder than first base. As such, the men who play it are generally better hitters than up-the-middle guys, but not as big and strong as corner outfielders and first basemen. A third baseman needs to be a good hitter and a good fielder, a pretty rare combination.

All this got me wondering, if we were to elect five more players at each spot to make at least 21 Hall of Famers at every position, who would/should go in? That is, who are the five most deserving players at each position who are eligible but have yet to be elected? I have ranked my choices in order from most deserving to least.

C
I feel very strongly that Piazza will be elected this year. It's his fourth time on the ballot, and after starting out at 57.8% he's risen to 62.2% and 69.9%. If he makes a similar jump this year--let's split the different and say six percent--he'll have just enough support to clear the 75% threshold. With his former team making the World Series this year, I think he'll get the requisite boost.

Honestly, though, it's a bit ridiculous that Piazza hasn't been elected already. I mean, he was the greatest hitting catcher of all-time. His numbers are outstanding for any position, but for a catcher they're off the charts. Sure, he played in the best era for offense since the Great Depression, but he also spent his entire career in brutal pitcher's parks. That's why, if you neutralize his numbers, they barely change, dipping ever so slightly from .308/.377/.545 to .304/.371/.537. The time has come to give Piazza--the fifth-best catcher by JAWs and sixth-best per fWAR--his due.

For the life of me, I still can't figure out why Simmons hasn't made the Hall of Fame, much less how he lasted just one year on the ballot. By JAWS and FanGraphs, he's one of the 10 best catchers ever. Only Ivan Rodriguez amassed more hits and doubles among backstops, and only Yogi Berra knocked in more runs. And Simmons wasn't just a compiler, either; from 1971-1980 he averaged .301/.367/.466 (131 OPS+) with 17 home runs and 90 RBI per season. The only reason I can think of for why he's been so criminally underrated are that he starred on terrible Cardinals teams in the 1970s, which also coincided with a golden age for catchers. People just forgot about him.

Throughout his 15-year career, Freehan was the pre-eminent catcher in the American League, if not all of baseball. He made 10 straight All-Star trips from 1964-1973, then added an 11th in 1975. He won five consecutive Gold Gloves to close out the '60s, earning a third-place MVP finish in 1967 and placing runner-up to teammate Denny McLain the following year. Freehan was everything you could want out of a catcher; durable, good defender, hit for power, and had a good batting eye. Had he not declined so rapidly after turning 30 he'd probably be in the Hall of Fame today.

Along with Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker, Parrish is one of the forgotten stars from the great Detroit teams of the 1980s. He was well decorated during his playing days, making eight All-Star teams and winning three straight Gold Gloves. The six-time Silver Slugger recipient had phenomenal pop for a backstop, exceeding 20 homers in a season seven times and belting 19 two other times. He finished his career with 324 round-trippers in all--tied with Gary Carter for fifth all-time among catchers. He also knocked in over 1,000 runs, something 11 catchers have ever done. His numbers might look even better had he never suffered the sore back that cut short his 1986 season--which was shaping up to be one of his best--and hindered him for the rest of his career.

It seems pretty clear to me that Munson was on the Hall of Fame track before his life was tragically cut short in a plane crash. He'd been the American League's top catcher during the 1970s, making seven All-Star teams and winning three Gold Gloves along with two World Series rings. Had he not taken to the skies that fateful day, he likely would have finished his career with more than 2,000 hits (probably closer to 2,500, actually) and close to 60 bWAR. Unfortunately, we will never know.
Allen fell one vote shy of election in his most recent turn on the ballot (CSN Philly)
3B (I'm excluding Edgar Martinez because most people view him as a DH)
I've argued Allen's case too many times in this space to do so again, but basically it boils down to this; if he hadn't been such a jerk, I think he would have been inducted a long time ago. He was the Manny Ramirez or Albert Belle of the 1960s and '70s--unlikable, bad defense, sour attitude and a terrible teammate, but man, he was one hell of a hitter.

One of the best defensive third basemen of all-time, Nettles deserved to win more than two Gold Gloves. Alas, he spent the first half of his career in the shadow of Brooks Robinson, and the second half of it in Buddy Bell's. He was a much better hitter than both of them, though, slugging 390 home runs. He can also claim to be the best position player of the 1970s who never played for the Reds, ranking third in fWAR for the decade behind only Johnny Bench and Joe Morgan.

Boyer was basically Ron Santo before Ron Santo. Had he gotten an earlier start (military service delayed his career) or not completely fallen apart in his mid-30s (and thus remained an integral part of the 1967-'68 Cardinals squads), we'd probably hold him in higher regard. As it were he had nine wonderful seasons, but for most people that's not enough.

Buddy Bell
Bell was a ridiculously good defender, possibly the best at the hot corner not named Brooks Robinson. He was no slouch with the stick, either, accruing over 2,500 hits, 200 homers, and a 109 OPS+ for his career. He also had a better peak than most people realize, averaging just under six bWAR per season from 1978-1984. Bell wasn't a good baserunner and didn't have great power, finishing his career with a .127 ISO and more unsuccessful stolen base attempts than successful ones, but still cleared 60 career WAR for both B-R and FG.

Evans was the rare three-true outcomes type of third-sacker, blasting 414 home runs and logging a .361 OBP in spite of his .248 batting average. In that sense Evans was ahead of his time, for he surely would have been better appreciated today than he was during the '70s and '80s, when people griped about his low batting average. He actually didn't strike out that much--1,410 times in 21 seasons, which works out to be 67 per season. Nowadays guys strike out twice as often and hit half as many homers, so go figure.

Flex: Joe Torre
Torre's already in the Hall of Fame as a manager, but you could certainly make the case he deserved to go in as a player long ago. He had a sneaky good peak where he was one of the best players in baseball during the 1960s and early '70s. As with several others on this list, longevity was an issue, but he doesn't get anywhere close to the credit his playing record deserves.

Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Beltre Breaks Out, Cycles Again

Beltre's bat seems to be coming around (SI)
Adrian Beltre turned back the clock last night, notching the third cycle of his illustrious career to help the Texas Rangers outslug the Houston Astros 12-9. Interestingly enough, all three of Beltre's cycles have come at Globe Life Park in Arlington--home of the Texas Rangers. His first cycle was as a visitor with the Seattle Mariners in 2008, while the second occurred in 2012--his second season with the Rangers.

Now 36 and in his 18th season, Beltre has shown signs of slipping this year. While he's continued to provide his usual stellar defense at the hot corner, he entered last night's game batting just .262/.305/.394--his lowest figures since his injury-plagued 2009. From 2010 to 2014 Beltre was among the best hitters in the game, but this year he's finally started to show his age. His power is down for the fourth straight year, though that might have something to do with the sprained left thumb that cost him three weeks in June. With his body breaking down and skills eroding, Beltre, like most athletes in their 30s, simply isn't the player he once was.

But for one night, at least, he was. The life returned to his bat, enabling him to Beltre wasted no time getting going, keying the Rangers' six-run first with a go-ahead, two-run triple into the left-centerfield gap. He doubled his next time up the very next inning, then followed that up with a single in the third. Facing Mike Fiers in the fifth, he proceeded to rip a laser over the left field wall, completing the cycle before the game was even half over.

Beltre's is the second cycle by a Ranger in less than two weeks, as teammate Shin-Soo Choo turned the trick at Coors Field back on July 21st. Beltre's cycle was special, however, for being the third of his career, which ties a major league record shared by John Reilly, Bob Meusel, and Babe Herman. All of them retired before Jackie Robinson broke the color line, making Beltre the first player with three cycles since baseball was integrated--a fitting accomplishment considering his Dominican heritage.

The Rangers, who are just two games behind the Twins for the second wild card, are hoping there's more where that came from. Beltre had already shown signs of breaking out prior to last night's display, going 3-for-4 with a home run on Friday and notching two more hits on Saturday. With a dozen hits--five for extra bases--in his past half dozen games, Beltre's bat appears to be coming around. A strong second half from him would go a long way towards keeping the Rangers' playoff hopes alive, not to mention prove he still has something left in the tank.

The Rangers and their fans can only hope that last night's game was a sign of things to come rather than a reminder of the beast Beltre used to be.

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Wright Following in Rolen's Footsteps

Wright has missed significant time in 5 of the past 6 seasons (CBS New York)
With David Wright sidelined by yet another injury, this time out indefinitely with spinal stenosis, I couldn't help but think of another talented two-way third baseman who became a walking medical bill in his 30s.

For almost a decade before Wright burst on the scene with the Mets, Scott Rolen was the National League's best at the hot corner. In fact, from 1997-2004, Rolen ranked third among MLB position players in fWAR behind only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. I was surprised to see that during this time, Rolen was a more valuable player than Chipper Jones, who many feel is Hall of Fame-bound.

Rolen appeared headed for Cooperstown as well following his monster 2004 campaign, in which he was worth 9.1 bWAR and posted a 1.007 OPS. Like Nomar Garciaparra and countless others throughout baseball history, however, he was unable to sustain his early success as injuries sapped his performance during his 30s. Multiple shoulder surgeries wrecked his career, preventing him from completing what was shaping up to be a Hall of Fame resume.

Wright, who also had a Cooperstown-caliber start to his career, has closely mirrored Rolen's trajectory. Both debuted at 21, secured everyday roles at 22, and immediately emerged as elite players. After remaining mostly healthy and productive throughout their 20s, they began experiencing injury problems and deteriorating performance in their early 30s.

Through age 32 (Wright's current age) their numbers are remarkably similar:

Rolen 1,505 G 954 R 380 2B 261 HR 1,012 RBI 104 SB .283/.372/.507 (126 OPS+) 55 bWAR
Wright 1,516 G 910 R 375 2B 231 HR 943 RBI 193 SB .298/.377/.494 (134 OPS+) 49.9 bWAR

Wright's future is unknown in the wake of his latest malady, but appears gloomy based on how the second half of Rolen's career played out. Constantly beset by injuries, Rolen averaged just 11 home runs and 57 RBI per season during his 30s. The Mets can only hope that Wright, who is owed $87 million over the next five seasons, avoids a similar decline.

Monday, December 15, 2014

Headley Headed Back to New York

Headley has replaced Alex Rodriguez as New York's everyday third baseman (NYPost)
Chase Headley, who was traded to the New York Yankees midway through last season, has re-signed with the Bombers on a four-year, $52 million deal.

Headley had a down year by his standards in 2014, batting just .243/.328/.372 with 13 home runs and 49 RBI in 135 games. Those dismal figures can be attributed to a slow start, which saw Headley spend time on the DL with a strained calf and struggle to bat just .202/.287/.318 through July 3rd. He hit considerably better after that, batting .279/.364/.421 from that point forward, right in line with his career .265/.347/.409 marks.

Part of that turnaround was a result of finally escaping PetCo Park. The switch-hitter has put up good numbers in his new digs, compiling a .823 OPS in 35 games at the new Yankee Stadium. Staying with New York should help mitigate any natural decline he's likely to experience over the course of his contract, which covers his age 31-34 seasons.

Headley strikes me as a player cut from the same cloth as former teammate Stephen Drew: an above average defender on the left side of the infield who can hit a bit. Drew's a year older than Headley and debuted one year before him, but their careers are pretty comparable. Check it out:

S. Drew: 4,218 PA  .256/.322/.425 .747 OPS (93 wRC+)  8.9 BB%  19 K%  .168 ISO  .324 wOBA
Headley: 3,944 PA  .265/.347/.409 .756 OPS (114 wRC+) 10.3 BB% 22.6 K% .144 ISO .334 wOBA

As you can see, very similar hitters. Drew has a bit more power, while Headley gets on base a little more (but also strikes out more). Headley's considerably better after adjusting for league and ballpark, but their raw numbers (read: results) are virtually even. It's funny to think that Headley got a fat four-year deal while Drew will likely have to scrounge around for another one-year deal, hoping somebody takes a flier on him so he can re-establish his value.

Overall I think this is a very fair deal for Headley, who's been worth an average of 4.38 fWAR per year over the past five seasons. During that time, he's been more valuable than Ryan Braun, Jason Heyward, Yadier Molina, David Wright, Adrian Gonzalez, and Pablo Sandoval, among others. At $13 million a year, the Yanks are paying him to be a two-win player when he's typically worth twice that. Even last year, he still graded out as a four-win player according to FanGraphs (B-R had him at just over two, so let's split the difference and call it three). Assuming he doesn't get old overnight defensively and last year wasn't the beginning of a drastic decline at the plate, Headley figures to be a productive player over the life of his new contract.

And that's good for the Yankees, because they can't say that about too many players on their current payroll.


Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Seager Secures Extension

Seager's underrated but still worth the money (FootballsFuture)
The Seattle Mariners just gave Kyle Seager a seven-year, $100 million contract extension that locks up his arbitration years and first four free agent seasons, plus an option for an eighth year.

Hold the phone, Seattle just gave $100 million to whom?

Since debuting in 2011, Seager has quietly established himself as one of the better (and more underappreciated) players in the game. Over the past three years, Seager was the sixth-best third baseman in baseball per fWAR, ahead of established superstars such as Evan Longoria, Hanley Ramirez, and Pablo Sandoval.

While Seager is not well-known, he's worthy of this deal for a number of reasons. One is that he's just 27, smack dab in the middle of his prime. Another is that he's a great two-way third baseman, and thus excels at a tough position.

But really, Seager deserves the dough because he's a terrific baseball player.  He's steadily improved throughout his four big league seasons, peaking with last year's 5.5 fWAR, first All-Star appearance, and first Gold Glove (which should have gone to Josh Donaldson, but Seager's smooth defensively nevertheless). He also popped 25 home runs--his third straight season with at least 20--and knocked in 96 runs, both career highs.

Wait, there's more. Seager's incredibly durable, having played at least 155 games in each of the last three years and leading all third basemen in games played during that span. He doesn't strike out a lot for a guy with good power and walks a fair amount. His offense was 26 percent better than average last year after adjustments for league and park, and like I said his numbers have only trended upwards. Even if 2014 was his peak and he regresses back to the player he was in 2012 and 2013, he's still a 3.5 win guy, which is very valuable, especially to a team on the brink of contention like the Mariners.

This deal makes a ton of sense for Seattle, setting them up at the hot corner for the foreseeable future. It also makes a ton of sense for Seager, because $100 million is a lot of money.

Monday, November 24, 2014

Sox Sign Sandoval

As expected, Sandoval signed with the Sox (RantSports)
Shortly after the Boston reached a five--year, $90 million agreement with Hanley Ramirez, they landed another prized free agent bat in Pablo Sandoval. Of the three teams that offered Sandoval approximately five years and $95 million (San Diego and San Francisco were the others), Boston was Sandoval's choice (wonder how much Fenway Park played a role in that).

The Red Sox said they were all-in on Sandoval and willing to do whatever it took to get him. Seeing as how they got their man, I guess they weren't kidding.

While I was initially hesitant about the six years and $100+ million I expected Sandoval to receive, I'm much more comfortable with the actual terms. The deal covers Sandoval's age 28-32 seasons, meaning the Red Sox can expect Sandoval to be productive over the life of the contract, especially at the beginning when he's still in his prime. He might even be able to man the hot corner for the entirety of the contract, though I wouldn't be surprised to see him DH frequently when David Ortiz retires.

More importantly, adding Sandoval makes the Red Sox significantly better in the short-run. Boston third basemen--mainly a combination of Will Middlebrooks and Xander Bogaerts with a dash of Brock Holt--batted just .211/.271/.308 with 10 home runs and 54 RBI last year. Those numbers wouldn't play at shortstop, let alone one of the corner infield positions. Much was made about punchless Red Sox outfield last year (looking at you, Jackie Bradley Jr.), but third base was actually the team's least productive position OPS-wise.

In Sandoval, Boston now has one of the best-hitting third sackers in the game. Since debuting in 2008, he's been the sport's seventh-most valuable third baseman per fWAR while maintaining an .811 OPS and 122 wRC+. His numbers should receive a significant boost from Fenway as well. A switch-hitter with solid power and on-base ability, Sandoval beefs up Boston's lineup considerably and projects to be about a three-win player.

He's also a beast in October, which means something to a perennial contender like the Red Sox. Sandoval is coming off a postseason in which he notched 26 hits--an MLB record. A proven postseason performer, he also has the highest batting average (.344) of anyone with at least 150 plate appearances in the playoffs. Sandoval was part of three World Series winners with the Giants and has shown the ability to succeed under pressure.

Adding Ramirez and Sandoval to a lineup that already features Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, Yoenis Cespedes, and Shane Victorino gives Boston some serious thump, which is exactly what they need after fielding one of the American League's five worst offenses last year. Now they must focus on adding arms, either by splurging for Jon Lester or packaging prospects (possibly Bogaerts now that Boston has an All-Star shortstop and third baseman) to the Phillies for Cole Hamels. The Red Sox have already committed close to $200 million for just two players in the past 24 hours, but they still need to go the extra mile and acquire a frontline starter or two.

Otherwise, they're going to be just like the many good but not-good-enough teams of Red Sox past--plenty of bats but short on arms.

Ramirez Rejoins Red Sox

9 years after Boston traded him, Ramirez is back (ProSportsBlogging)
10 years ago Hanley Ramirez was the Boston Red Sox's shortstop of the future, heir apparent to Nomar Garciaparra. Then the Sox traded him to the then-Florida Marlins for Josh Beckett in a move that altered the course of both franchises.

Boston, of course, went on to win the 2007 World Series on the backs of Beckett and Lowell, that year's ALCS and World Series MVPs. Meanwhile, Ramirez blossomed in Florida, winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2006 before earning three top-10 MVP finishes and a trio of All-Star nods over the next four seasons. The former batting champion spent the last two and a half seasons with the Dodgers, helping them to division titles in 2013 and 2014.

Now, Ramirez is returning to the team that signed him as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic when he was just 16. With 10 big league seasons under his belt, the 30 year-old has delivered on the superstar promise he flashed in Boston's farm system. He returns a fully-formed product.

While HanRam's defense has suffered in recent years, necessitating a move off shortstop (likely to third), his bat has remained potent. In 2013 he slammed 20 home runs to go along with a sky-high 1.040 OPS (189 OPS+), followed by a 132 OPS+ performance in 2014. Excluding his two-game cameo with the Sox in 2005, Ramirez has had an above-average OPS in all but one of his seasons--his injury-marred 2011. His bat is most valuable at shortstop, obviously, but still plays at the hot corner or in the outfield should he move there.

2011 was an aberration in terms of Ramirez's offensive production, but it was not out of the ordinary in regards to his health. He missed time the year before that (2010), played just 86 games in 2013, then sat out 34 games last year. That's 205 missed games over the past five seasons, an average of 41 per year. Ramirez is going to be 31 next year, so the Red Sox shouldn't expect to get many, if any, full seasons out of him. But like Jose Reyes, Ramirez is so good when he does play that he still earns his keep: just make sure you have a quality backup plan.

A righthanded hitter with good power (career .200 ISO), Ramirez should excel in Fenway Park. Trading the run-parched environment of Dodger Stadium for one of the best hitter's parks in baseball should help ward off any age-related decline in the immediate future. He's also a versatile offensive performer, capable of hitting .300 with 20 homers and a similar number of steals when healthy. He walks a fair amount and doesn't strike out much, so one would expect him to age gracefully anyways.

The Red Sox are going to pay Ramirez $90 million over the next five years, an average annual value of $18 million per season. That's a considerable pay bump from his contract that just expired, a six-year, $70 million that paid him less than $12 million a season on average. Ramirez is not nearly the all-around force he was five years ago, but inflation and free agent scarcity means he'll be paid more to do less. It's still a pretty good deal if Ramirez continues to play shortstop or third, less so if he moves to left field.

So while Ramirez has question marks about his durability and defense, there's no disputing the fact that he makes Boston's lineup significantly stronger. He's still a four-win player, and I'm more optimistic about how his early 30s will play out than I am about, say, Billy Butler's. The Red Sox didn't need a shortstop with Xander Bogaerts already there, but they could certainly use a third baseman (unless Pablo Sandoval also signs) and a big bat in general. Ramirez fits the bill.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Boston Finds Francisco

Francisco is a slightly better, lefthanded version of Middlebrooks (BR)
Though the Boston Red Sox appear to be odds-on favorites to win the Pablo Sandoval sweepstakes, it never hurts to have a backup plan. That's why they claimed third baseman Juan Francisco off waivers today.

And as far as backup plans go, Francisco's not a bad one to have. He's a league average bat (99 OPS+) who's popped 34 home runs over the past two years in limited duty, including 16 in just 320 trips to the plate for Toronto last year. A very good source of lefthanded power, Francisco has slugged 48 dingers in just under 1,000 career at-bats and owns a .203 career ISO. He's also 27 years old, the perfect age for a baseball player.

Francisco's flaws (loads of strikeouts, poor defense, horrible against righthanded pitching) prevent him from being an everyday player, but at least he'd be able to hold a timeshare of third base with the righthanded Will Middlebrooks. Both have glaring platoon splits, but utilizing Middlebrooks against southpaw and Francisco against righties would likely result in 30 home runs and a .760 OPS between them. Platoons aren't ideal, but they work better than giving a bad player more playing time than he deserves.

Of course, none of this matters if and when the Sox sign Sandoval, at which point Francisco may be non-tendered, traded, or held in reserve. He's not going to move the needle much for Boston, but at least he gives them another option at the hot corner should Sandoval sign elsewhere. The team needs every scrap of power it can find to bolster what was an anemic offense last year, and Francisco fits the bill.

Thursday, November 13, 2014

Sox Shouldn't Sign Sandoval

Sandoval's bat doesn't make up for his flaws (ESPN)
The Boston Red Sox are reportedly all-in on Pablo Sandoval. Gulp.

Many of the points I made in the spring still stand. Sandoval plays mediocre defense and can't run (he hasn't even attempted a stolen base since 2012). His power is merely decent, he hardly ever walks (just 39 times in 638 plate appearances last year, and six of those were intentional), and he doesn't produce a lot of runs. Furthermore, his career already appears to be on the downswing, as his OBP and slugging have fallen every year since 2011. 28 or not, that's not somebody I'm handing a six-year deal to.

One would expect Fenway to boost his numbers some, but that's not guaranteed. Sandoval hit much better at AT&T (.853 OPS there) compared to everywhere else (.771 OPS). It's typical for players to hit better at home regardless of where they play, however, and it stands to reason that his home numbers would rise in Fenway's friendly confines.

The Red Sox have a clear hole to fill at third base (Will Middlebrooks aint the answer), but there are better, more appealing options, like trying to trade for Adrian Beltre or signing Chase Headley. I like that they're willing to throw money at a player, but Sandoval's the wrong guy. Throw that money at a starting pitcher, for the love of God, like Jon Lester or Max Scherzer. Don't piss it away on Sandoval, a solid player but by no means a star. If you're going to spend superstar money, you better get a superstar in return, and a corner infielder who's averaged 14 homers, 72 RBI, and a .280/.335/.424 line over the past three years isn't close to one.

Please, Mr. Cherington, spend your money elsewhere. Let Sandoval be someone else's mistake.

Friday, October 31, 2014

Youkilis Retires

Youkilis shows off hi bizarre hitting style (NYTimes)
After one season in Japan, former Red Sox corner infielder Kevin Youkilis is calling it a career.

Youkilis, known simply as Youk to Fenway Faithful, enjoyed a 10-year major league career, spending the first eight and a half of those seasons with Boston. Drafted by Dan Duquette in the eighth round of the 2001 draft, the disciplined third baseman received a new nickname--"Greek God of Walks"--from Billy Beane's Oakland A's organization. That patience would serve him well in the big leagues, where he maintained a robust .382 OBP and 12.2 BB%.

Youkilis arrived on the scene in 2004, just in time to help the beleaguered BoSox end their 86-year championship drought. He was a solid reserve on that team and the following year's squad, backing up Kevin Millar at first and Bill Mueller at third. Both left following the 2005 season, allowing Youkilis to inherit the everyday first baseman job with the Red Sox acquiring Mike Lowell, an All-Star third-sacker, in their trade for Josh Beckett.

Already 27 by that point, Youkilis was more than ready. He batted .279/.381/.429 in his first full season along with 42 doubles and a career-high 91 walks and 100 runs scored. He was even better the following year, improving from a three win player to a five win stalwart and earning his first and only Gold Glove.

More importantly, Youkilis sparked Boston to another World Series title that year. A non-factor in the '04 run with just two at-bats, he was one of the team's best hitters in '07 and proved crucial to their victory. Youk was especially lethal during Boston's come-from-behind ALCS victory over the Cleveland Indians, batting .500/.576/.929 with 14 hits, three home runs, seven RBI, and 10 runs scored. Against Colorado in the Fall Classic he capped off a terrific postseason in which he batted .388/.475/.755 with 19 hits in 14 games.

The following year, 2008, would be the best of Youk's career. He enjoyed a power breakthrough with 29 home runs--equaling his output from the previous two seasons combined--43 doubles, 306 total bases, and 115 RBI, all career highs. He also hit .312/.390/.569, made his first All-Star team, won the American League Hank Aaron Award, and finished third in the MVP race behind teammate Dustin Pedroia and Justin Morneau. Youkilis was instrumental in helping the Red Sox reach the postseason again, and enjoyed another monster LCS (1.008 OPS), but it was not enough as the Sox were outdone by the Rays in seven games.

Statistically, 2009 was just as good for Youkilis, who posted a .961 OPS and was worth 6.6 bWAR while making the All-Star team again and finishing sixth in the MVP polling. He was on track for similarly great numbers in 2010 when a torn abductor muscle in his right thumb ended his season at the beginning of August. The injury effectively marked the end of Youk's brief reign as one of the best players in baseball.

The final year of Youk's career were frustrating and tumultuous (CBSSports)
His career started heading south in 2011, his last full season with the Sox. He moved back to third base to accommodate Adrian Gonzalez but the position change likely did more harm than good, as Youkilis was again plagued by injuries during the second half. He missed 42 games in all and appeared in just 22 from August 1st on, batting a reduced .190 over that time. Had he been able to stay healthy or hit more effectively down the stretch, Boston likely would have won at least one more game and thus been spared the humiliation of its great September collapse.

In the wake of said meltdown, Youkilis lost the trust of his teammates due to suspicion that he had leaked the chicken and beer information to the press. 2012 quickly turned out to be a nightmare for him and the team, as he got off to a slow start, had his effort questioned by new manager Bobby Valentine, and spent more time on the Disabled List. In his absence rookie call-up Will Middlebrooks excelled, making Youkilis expendable in the eyes of the organization and giving them a convenient excuse to trade him away. Ben Cherington did just that, dealing Youkilis for two nobodies in return. In a fitting finale, Youkilis had two hits, including a triple, in the last game he ever played for the Red Sox.

He moved on to Chicago, where he hit better with the White Sox but not well enough to convince anybody that his glory days were coming back. That led to his signing a one-year deal with the Yankees, which turned out to be a huge bust when he got hurt yet again and appeared in just 28 games. Nobody wanted him when his contract expired, and he took off for Japan.

The end came hard and fast for Youkilis, as it does for many athletes in their early 30s. Youk was an All-Star at 32, cast-off at 33, and done at 34. It wasn't surprising he tailed off so fast given his physique and unmatched intensity. Nobody played the game harder or with more passion than Youkilis, and like a shooting star he burned out quickly. Injuries took their toll as well, but he was a great player when he did play and had a Hall of Fame peak, even if it was short-lived (three years). Though he didn't play much (barely 1,000 games) or for very long, he accomplished a hell of a lot during his all-too-brief career.

And he did it with one of the most unorthodox batting stances I've ever seen.

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Commemorating Chavez


Over the summer, at the height of Derek Jeter's much-ballyhooed retirement tour, Eric Chavez quietly retired, bringing an end to his 17-year major league career. While age and injuries reduced Chavez to a part-time player during the second half of his career, it's important to remember just how good he was during the first half. Had he just been able to stay healthy, his resume would probably be Hall of Fame worthy. As it is, it resembles something of a poor man's Scott Rolen; strong defense at third base complemented by good power and on-base ability, but a boatload of injuries later in the career. Rolen also happens to be Chavez's most similar batter through age 30, not surprisingly.

Drafted out of high school by the Oakland A's with the 10th pick of the 1996 draft, Chavez made his major league debut two years later. The year after that, he was Oakland's everyday third baseman. After a solid showing as a rookie, Chavez broke out in 2000 with 26 dingers and an .850 OPS, beginning a run of seven straight 20-homer seasons. He would max out at 34 in 2002, the year he won his only Silver Slugger and netted his highest MVP finish (14th) as part of the famed "Moneyball" A's squad. He produced nearly identical numbers the following year, led the league in walks with 95 in 2004, and enjoyed his fourth 100 RBI season in 2005. 2006 marked a bit of a decline for Chavez, as his average tumbled to .241, but he still posted a .351 OBP, smacked 22 home runs, and won his sixth straight Gold Glove.

Because he was basically replacement level for the last eight years of his career, I don't think people remember or appreciate just how good Chavez was at his peak. He was the American League's answer to Scott Rolen. From 2000 through 2005, when he averaged 30 homers and 98 RBI per year while winning five Gold Gloves, he was practically even in terms of value with Manny Ramirez and ahead of guys like Derek Jeter, Carlos Beltran, Miguel Tejada, Carlos Delgado, and Sammy Sosa. He never had that one monster MVP-caliber season or even made an All-Star team, but consistently stayed in the five-win range for half a decade. Had he been able to do that through the rest of the decade into his early 30s, would be discussing his Hall chances right now.

Because through 2006, his age-28 season, Chavez had already piled up 1,143 hits, 245 doubles, 212 home runs, 716 RBI, and 2,060 total bases. His 32.5 fWAR were within one of Chipper Jones at the same age and within two of Wade Boggs and Brooks Robinson. His 212 long balls ranked eighth of all third sackers through age 28, ahead of Dick Allen, Jim Thome, and Mike Schmidt, among others. His 716 RBI were seventh. And with six Gold Gloves already under his belt, Chavez appeared well on his way to Cooperstown.

Then, injuries. First it was debilitating back pain, followed later on by crippling knee ailments. After averaging 144 games per year from 1999 through 2006, Chavez never again played more than 115 games in a season. He played 90 games in 2007, 23 the year after that, and just eight in 2009. In 2010, his 13th and final year with Oakland, he suited up for only 33 games. His performance declined steadily during that time as various injuries took their toll. Worse, he became an enormous bust for the A's, collecting $45 million in player salaries over those final four years in Oakland, during which time he contributed -0.3 fWAR, damning him for all eternity as one of Billy Beane's worst investments.

Those four lost prime years effectively murdered whatever chance Chavez had the Hall, but incredibly they did not end his career. The Yankees, seeking backup for an aging Alex Rodriguez, scooped him up at a bargain bin price. Chavez was a non-factor in his first season with the Bronx (2011) but enjoyed a resurgent 2012 with 16 homers and an .845 OPS in 113 games. Chavez moved on to Arizona following New York's LCS elimination and continued to hit well there in spite of his old age, putting up an .810 OPS at age 35 and .795 at 36.

It was somewhat surprising, then, that Chavez retired midway through last season on July 30th. But the Diamondbacks were going nowhere and a knee injury had forced him to the disabled list. At 36, he was all done fighting his way back from injuries, so he forfeited the $1 million remaining on his contract and went home.

It's a shame we'll never know what Chavez would have accomplished had he stayed healthy. He was on track to be one of the 15, maybe even 10-best third basemen ever, at least on par with Rolen, Ken Boyer, and Ron Santo. Based on his early career trajectory, Chavez probably would have reached benchmarks such as 300 home runs and 2,000 hits, and may have added a few more Gold Gloves as well. As it is, his six Gold Gloves are tied with Buddy Bell and Robin Ventura for fourth-most all-time among third basemen, behind only Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, and Rolen. His career .970 fielding percentage is the fifth-highest at the position.

Chavez is not a Hall of Famer, but for awhile he played like one. It's just too bad things didn't turn out differently, because by all accounts he was one of the game's classier, most respected players. Nobody deserves to have their career ravaged by injuries, but Chavez especially.