Is Chris Davis Crazy?

Chris Davis is poised to strike it rich this offseason (Sports On Earth)

Is Chris Davis crazy for rejecting Baltimore's seven-year, $150 million offer?

I don't think so. Davis has been the game's top power hitter over the past four years, outhomering everyone in the sport and posting the highest ISo in the American League. He's coming off a 47-homer season and is only going to be 30 next year, meaning he should still have several peak-level seasons ahead of him.

He's also far and away the best slugger on the market, which is woefully short on power beyond him, Justin Upton, and Yoenis Cespedes. Free agency is an annual game of supply and demand, and this year's supply of heavy hitters is awfully light.

But what about the demand? Davis hasn't garnered much interest this month, as the Orioles appear to be the only team seriously pursuing him. Granted, it's still early, and everyone seems to be focused on pitching right now. With many prized starters off the board, however, teams should begin turning their attention to the remaining position players, of whom Davis is the most desirable.

Still, I'm not convinced he'll get the eight-year, $200 million contract he's reportedly seeking. Most of the big-market teams are set at first base--the Red Sox have Hanley Ramirez, the Yankees still have Mark Teixeira, the Dodgers have Adrian Gonzalez, the Phillies are stuck with Ryan Howard, etc. The Cardinals probably make the most sense, especially since they'll be eager to make a splash after losing Jason Heyward and John Lackey to the Cubs, but they generally don't overpay free agents the way other teams do.

That doesn't mean Davis should have jumped at the first big offer thrown his way. He's smart to wait it out, to let interest build and allow other teams to start bidding against each other. Scott Boras knows what he's doing, and he knows there's nobody else on the market like Davis.They may not get $200 million, but they can probably get more than 150.

The best comp I can think of for Davis is Prince Fielder, another slugging first baseman and Boras client. Like Davis, Fielder turned down a big offer from his original club to test the free agent waters. He didn't sign until late January, at which point he landed a ridiculous nine-year, $214 million deal from the Tigers. Davis won't get quite such a big deal since he's two years older than Fielder was then, but he should be in the same ballpark.

Davis deserves to get paid. The only question is how much? He's been worth close to four wins per season over the past four, so assuming he loses half a win each year he'll provide 14 over the next seven.  With teams currently paying about $8 million per win, that works out to be "only" $98 million for a seven-year deal. Taking into account inflation, the influx of TV money, and the scarcity of available sluggers this winter, $150 million is probably more reasonable, but $200 million appears to be a drastic overpay. We'll see, but it's hard to imagine Davis getting that much without serious interest from multiple teams.

Given that he's one of the few players around capable of parking 40 dingers a year, I'm surprised there isn't more. Maybe his price tag is scaring teams away. Maybe teams are leary of signing up for a Fielder/Teixeira/Albert Pujols type of commitment. Maybe his high strikeout totals are causing people to view him as a Ryan Howard/Adam Dunn type.

I don't know. All I know is that if I was running a baseball team, and I had an opening at first base or designated hitter, I'd want Davis to fill it. I'm just not sure I'd be willing to pay him $200 million to do so.

Boston Pays the Price

Dombrowski got his man, but at a steep price (USA Today)

It's been awhile since the Boston Red Sox spent serious money on a free agent pitcher. Their most recent multi-year, big bucks contract went to John Lackey after the 2009 season, during Theo Epstein's open-checkbook regime. Three years before that, he dropped over $100 million on Daisuke Matsuzaka. While both helped Boston to a world championship during their time with the club, neither panned out in terms of health or overall performance.Maybe that's why Epstein's successor, Ben Cherington, stayed away from big-ticket starting pitchers, especially ones over 30.

But after rolling the dice with an aceless staff last year (and finishing last again), Boston was willing to pay the price to secure a top-shelf starter. As it turned out, they were willing to shell out more for a pitcher ($216 million over six years) than anybody had ever shelled out before.

That represents quite a departure from the way Boston operated under Cherington, who's largest contract--Dustin Pedroia's extension--went for $100 million less. But then, so has everything that Dave Dombrowski has done since taking office.

It should come as no surprise that the Red Sox were the ones to land Price, given his history with Dombrowski. Dombrowski traded for Price in 2014 while general manager of the Tigers, hoping to get his team over the hump and win a championship for aging owner Mike Llitch. When they failed to do so in 2014 and sputtered last year, Dombrowski dealt Price to the Blue Jays in one of his last moves before being fired.

Now, the two have reunited in Boston, where they'll get a fresh start and another shot at a championship.

It's not hard to see why Boston--Dombrowski in particular--was so enamored with Price. The former Cy Young winner (and two-time runner-up) has been steadily terrific throughout his career, despite being traded midway through each of the last two seasons. Both times he quickly adapted to a new, more hitter-friendly environment, suggesting he shouldn't have much trouble acclimating to Fenway Park. His career numbers back this up, as he's 6-1 with a 1.95 ERA in 11 regular season starts at Fenway.

That's only one reason why Price will be a great fit in Boston. He just turned 30, which means he should still have several fine seasons ahead of him. He's durable, having logged the fourth-most innings in baseball since 2010. And he's a battle-tested AL East veteran, having spent all but one one of his eight seasons in the division. He strikes guys out, doesn't walk very many, and keeps the ball in the yard. What's not to love?

The only negative thing I can say about Price is, well, his price. The Red Sox could have acquired two great starting pitchers for what they spent on Price, as the Giants did after losing out on Zack Greinke. I would have rather seen them get any combination of Jordan Zimmermann, Johnny Cueto, and Jeff Samardzija, preferably the first two. Boston was more than one good starter away from being a contender last year, and probably still are if they don't add another starter between now and Opening Day.

Because even with Price, the rest of their rotation still looks pretty shaky. You never know what you're going to get out of Clay Buchholz, or which Rick Porcello is going to show up. 23 year-olds Henry Owens and Eduardo Rodriguez have a combined 32 major league starts under their belts, so counting on both of them to be productive starters next year is risky. Roenis Elias could spell Wade Miley, but he's yet to complete more than 165 innings in a season.

Boston's rotation projects to be Price and a bunch of question marks. Had they spent their money more wisely, however, there could have been one less wild card to worry about.

Cueto Quite the Bargain

Cueto could fetch an even bigger payday two years from now (NBC Sports)

After missing the playoffs for the fourth odd-year in a row, the San Francisco Giants are gearing up for what hopes to be their fourth straight even-year championship.

Since losing out on Zack Greinke, the Giants have already spent more than what it would have taken to acquire him, but for two pitchers rather than one. Normally I'd say that's a smart move--you're not putting all your eggs in one basket--but not when one of those guys is Jeff Samardzija. I still can't wrap my head around why anyone would want to give $90 million to a 31 year-old who just posted an ERA dangerously close to five, but that's another topic for another post.

Because while I think the Samardzija deal was a mistake as soon as the ink dried, I actually like the Johnny Cueto contract a lot. Forget about his up-and-down second half with Kansas City last year and look at the larger sample size--all in the National League, where he'll be returning next year. Over the past five years only Clayton Kershaw has started at least 100 games and compiled a lower ERA than Cueto, which speaks to just how sneaky-dominant he's been. He hasn't been the most durable pitcher ever, exceeding 200 innings in just three of his eight years, but he's not Clay Buchholz, either. There's only been two years where he's failed to start 30 games, meaning you can pretty much count on him to take the ball every fifth day.

So given his age (30), health, and recent dominance, I'm shocked Cueto settled for six years and $130 million. Granted, he's a virtual lock to opt out after two years and seek another similarly-sized contract, but with the crazy money pitchers have gotten this winter I'm surprised he didn't fetch at least $150 million. I mean, Jon Lester got six years/$155 million last year, and he was a year older with another full season of innings on his arm. David Price is six months older, yet Cueto received one fewer year and only 60 percent the money. Greinke is two years older, but got the same number of years and $76 million more.

What gives? Cueto's never won a Cy Young, like Greinke and Price have, and he's not a lefty, like Lester and Price are. They're also all better strikeout guys than Cueto--whose whiff rate has been roughly league average throughout his career--and strikeouts have proven to be the pitching equivalent of home runs when it's time to get paid (which is why Chris Davis just turned down Baltimore's $150 million offer).

But while punchouts are sexy, they aren't the only way to get outs, and Cueto has done a better job at doing that than everyone besides Kershaw. Five years is a big enough sample size--almost 900 innings--to prove that Cueto's success is not a fluke. He's an elite pitcher, even if his peripherals don't exactly back that up.

Cueto probably could have gotten more had he pushed harder or waited longer to sign, but like Jason Heyward chose to leave a good chunk of guaranteed money on the table for the chance to hit the market again in a few years. He'll be the same age Greinke is now, and that didn't stop Greinke from getting the richest contract in baseball history on an annual basis. With a couple big seasons in San Francisco and perhaps another championship under his belt, Cueto will be an even more attractive free agent at 32 than he was at 30.

 And if he's not, well, four more years at $84 million is nothing to cry about.

Cubs Team to Beat

The revamped Cubs could win 100 games next year (CBS Chicago)

The Chicago Cubs didn't have to make any major splashes this offseason. They could have consolidated after winning 97 games last year, banking on improvement from youngsters like Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber to cover decline from aging veterans and departing talent. The Cubs would have been completely justified in making a few minor tweaks and leaving their roster as is, letting their young core blossom into perennial contenders..

Instead, Chicago has been the most active team in free agency thus far. They dipped their toe into this year's deep talent pool by poaching John Lackey away from the Cardinals. Then they stole Ben Zobrist from a market that underrates his skills.

But those deals were mere appetizers for the main course, which was served last Friday. Chicago capped a whirlwind week by picking St. Louis's pocket yet again, wooing Jason Heyward from their division rivals.

In just one week, the balance of power shifted not only in the NL Central, but all of baseball. The Cubs have established themselves as the team to beat next year, a team with 100-win potential. That's why Heyward turned down more money to play elsewhere. He wants to be on the World Series favorites.

I already wrote about how much I like the Lackey deal--a short-term bet on one of the game's better starting pitchers--so now please indulge me as I examine the Zobrist and Heyward deals.

At four years and $56 million, Zobrist is a veritable bargain in spite of his age (he'll be 35 in the spring). Consider that last year, Victor Martinez got more money over the same number of years despite being a) one year older when he signed his contract and b) a full-time designated hitter. Nelson Cruz, another DH-type, got virtually the same contract, and while his has worked out so far it will get ugly fast if his home run power disappears, which can happen overnight for a player his age.

Zobrist has been much better than either of those guys and is younger, He's quietly been the fifth-most valuable position player in baseball over the past seven seasons, out-WAR'ing all but the game's truest superstars (Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, and Andrew McCutchen). While his defense went south last year and he didn't make the same impact on the bases that he usually does, at least part of that can be blamed on his midseason knee surgery. His balky knee didn't slow his bat, however, which remained as robust as ever despite injuries and a midseason trade to Kansas City.

Even if his defense and baserunning never recover, Zobrist will earn his paycheck as long as he keeps hitting like last year, when he was worth $16.4 million basically on his bat alone. If his hitting starts to slow too, however, then he'll be a bust. But seeing as how he's showed no signs of slowing down at the plate, the Cubs have no reason to worry just yet.

It was fitting that the deal for a long under-appreciated player was soon overshadowed by a monster contract attached to a much bigger name. Jason Heyward has been a breakoit candidate ever since scouts compared his likeness to Ken Griffey, Jr. during his rookie season. Heyward has failed to live up to those lofty expectations, instead settling into something just shy of a superstar. Skill-wise, he falls into the same category as Zobrist and Alex Gordon, but with the added benefit of being much, much younger.

Heyward is the rare free agent whose prime years are just about to begin rather than come to an end. So if Zobrist--the former type of player--is a bargain, Heyward's an absolute steal. Heyward has been one of the dozen-best position players in baseball since beginning his career in 2010 (notice the player right above him on that list). He's an excellent baserunner, a three-time Gold Glove winner, and a solid hitter. It's not worth discussing whether he'll be worth the eight years and $184 million (spoiler alert: he will be) because he'll opt out by the end of the decade, but when he does you can bet it will be for as much as or more than what he just accepted.

What's funny is that Zobrist and Heyward are essentially the same player. They both walk a lot, hit for medium power, have a bit of speed, and are plus defenders. While not great at any one thing, they are good at everything, and that's what makes them so valuable. Zobrist has played every position save pitcher and catcher, while Heyward can play anywhere in the outfield.

The Cubs seem likely to install the latter in center field, where he's only played sporadically. Still, Heyward can't be much worse than the man he's replacing out there--Dexter Fowler, who's provided positive defensive value just twice in his eight year-career according to Baseball-Reference. Thanks to his youth and athleticism, Heyward's one of the few corner outfielders capable of making the transition to center, as usually players go the other way.

So forget the Royals; the Cubs are baseball's model franchise. Their whip-smart front office has assembled a juggernaut around solid drafting, saavy free agent signings, and great trades. As for their latest spending spree, the rest of baseball should take note. If you're going to spend close to $300 million on free agents, this is the way to do it. Not, you know, how the Red Sox do it.

Sox Move Miley

Miley was 11-11 with a 4.46 ERA in his lone year with Boston (Boston Herald)

Less than a year after trading for Wade Miley, the Boston Red Sox are trading him away.

Miley was sent to Seattle yesterday, the latest casualty (along with reliever Jonathan Aro) of Dave Dombrowski's new quest to build a super-bullpen. He'd been acquired by the Sox last winter in a three-for-one swap with Arizona, replenishing a Boston rotation that had been depleted by trades the previous summer. They promptly locked up his arbitration years, making Miley an apparent fixture in Boston for seasons to come.

Ten months later, he's already gone. Not because he pitched poorly--his numbers last year were comparable to his final one in Arizona--but because Boston's new GM is hell-bent on assembling a shutdown relief unit (though I do wonder how much Miley's meltdown last summer contributed to the decision to trade him, as John Farrell is coming back and the Red Sox don't have much patience for internal feuds).

The David Price signing also made Boston's rotation too lefty-heavy, as he joins fellow southpaws Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens. It's generally not a good idea to have 80 percent of your starters throw from the left side when the left field wall in your home park is a mere 315 feet away. Fenway has chewed up and spit out many a lefty, and may well do the same to the aforementioned trio (as well as newcomer Roenis Elias--more on him in a minute).

But as I wrote in my analysis of last month's Craig Kimbrel trade, Boston's bullpen needed help. Red Sox relievers were among the worst in baseball last year, and adding 60 innings of Kimbrel was only a start. Getting another 70 from Carson Smith, Seattle's setup man last year, should help. Like Kimbrel, he's exactly the sort of young power arm Boston needs. Having him, Kimbrel, and a healthy Koji Uehara gives the Sox one of the best late-game relief corps in the majors.

Dombrowski appears to be trying to emulate Kansas City, who have ridden their stellar bullpen to consecutive AL pennants and a championship. Or he could be trying to avoid ending up like the Mets, who were undone in this year's Fall Classic by shaky relief work.

If this had been a one-for-one trade--Miley for Smith straight-up (which is how the press is spinning it)--then I'd be calling for Dombrowski's head. Miley's nothing special, but he's a durable league-average starter who soaks up innings, and that's more valuable than a setup man. But the Red Sox are basically getting Miley back in Elias, a lefthander who posted similar numbers last year. And seeing as how Elias is two years younger and won't be arbitration-eligible until 2018, he's the superior commodity. It's possible the third-year starting pitcher, whose next start will be his 50th, still elevates his game to another level. After four full seasons, the 29 year-old Miley is what he is at this point. Elias could wind up being better.

So Elias is more preferable to Miley, and Smith is probably better than Aro, who has yet to prove himself at the major league level. I'd say that makes this trade a win for Boston.