Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Red Sox Offense First Half Review

The All-Star Game is tonight and the Red Sox are exactly where they should be at the unofficial halfway point; leading the AL Beast with the second best record (55-35, two fewer wins than the Phillies) in the bigs.  Granted, the streaking Yankees are hot on their tail and the resilient Rays could go on a run, but Boston seems primed to pull away in the second half once it recovers to full health with Crawford, Lester and Buchholz returning to action.  At this point, it's seems safe to say the Bosox are where they are because of their hitting, which leads the AL in runs, hits, doubles, walks, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and total bases.  It's also second in triples, third in home runs, scored in double digits a dozen times and has improved each month so far.  Five players have at least ten long balls, three are hitting over .300 and six of the nine starters qualify as above average hitters at their position.  Top to bottom, this lineup is deep and talented with a good balance of power, speed, and patience.  It doesn't hurt that they know how to take advantage of Fenway's friendly confines (OPS 107 points higher at home) either. 

Without further adieu, here are your 2011 Beantown Bombers, five of whom were chosen as All-Stars this year.

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia-He received much of the blame for the pitching ineffectiveness during the slow start and had his game-calling skills questioned.  Perhaps it was an adjustment period for him and the hurlers?  The staff seems fully comfortable with Salty now, and his bat has come around, too.  After a punchless April, he flashed power by slugging .475 in May and put together a Joe Mauer-ish .327/.407/.538 line in June.  His overall numbers mirror his career averages, but the lack of offensive production from his fellow backstops means he actually ranks as slightly above average at the dish.  He can't touch V-Mart's hitting prowess, but at least he catches two in every three games.  Fun fact; they both have six home runs this year.

1B Adrian Gonzalez (AS)-AL MVP frontrunner in the midst of a career year.  The sweet swinging southpaw leads the league in hits, doubles, RBI, batting average, and total bases while supplying great defense at first base.  His shoulder may have hampered him a bit during the first two weeks at the season, but he turned his and the Sox's seasons around.  Since the team's 2-10 slide to open the year, A-Gone went on a sizzling .369/.425/.618 triple slash tear and threw in 70 RBI for good measure.  Gonzo ranks second in the league in positional player WAR (behind only the incomparable Jose Bautista) and is absolutely raking right now.  The walks and homers are down a bit and he leads the league in double plays grounded into, but I'm not going to nitpick; he's been all that and a bag of Doritos.

2B Dustin Pedroia (AS)-One of the few Red Sox to enjoy a nice start, the pint-sized keystoner suffered through a brutal month-plus stretch that saw his numbers tumble to .239/.349/.324 on June 4th.  He had been playing through an injury and after Tito gave him a much needed breather, the lasers started flying.  His power returned  and he's hit safely in all but two games since then (a Gonzalez-esque .367/.476/.658 clip) to haul those unsightly stats back up to a more than respectable .284/.395/.442 line.  On pace to set career highs in walks and stolen bases, Pedey ranks third in the league in positional player WAR and has played well in the field, too.  And who would have guessed that he would have twice as many stolen bases as Crawford at the break?

3B Kevin Youkilis (AS)-Youk has been a steady source of production at the hot corner this season.  Just check out his monthly splits, which are nearly identical, if you want proof of his consistency.  The Greek God of Walks ranks fifth in the league in positional player WAR and is enjoying a typical stellar season with a .911 OPS, 40 extra base hits and more RBI than any Red Sox not named Adrian.  He does have some concerning platoon splits; his OPS is nearly 500 points lower on the road and over 200 points lower against righties, and while he has always hit better at Fenway and torched lefties these are unusually stark contrasts to keep an eye on after the break

SS Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie-Shortstop has been a black hole in Boston since Nomar was in his prime, so why should 2011 be any different?  This tandem, subpar at the plate and average in the field, are adequate at best.  Their combined offensive production resembles that of Derek Jeter this season, a compliment in 2009 but an unflattering comparison in 2011.  Lowrie was on fire in April but fell back to earth, and Scoots is beginning to decline.  Scutaro seems to have a hold on the starting job for now, but that could change down the stretch as Lowrie is eight and a half years younger, can switch hit and needs more big league experience.

LF Carl Crawford-Crawford's been a major disappointment thus far in what has been the worst season of his distinguished career.  He's had some shining moments with several walk-offs and four hit days, but it seems the pressure to live up to his mammoth contract may be getting to him.  He was clearly pressing, a mental issue evident that translated to a career low walk percentage and career high chase percentage.  Hopefully some time on the DL will help him clear his head, but he needs to exhibit more patience and be more aggressive on the basepaths when he returns next week.  He's too good and young to play this poorly and should figure it out once he gets back in the swing of things, but at least he has company in Dan Uggla, Adam Dunn and Jayson Werth regarding marquee free agents with underwhelming statistics so far.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (AS)-It seems that Ellsbury has put it all together in his age 27 season, as he's finally developed a power stroke to go along with his blazing speed.  Jacoby has already set a career high in home runs, is about to set a career high in doubles and is sporting a healthy .490 slugging percentage and .174 ISO.  This improved pop, combined with his league leading steals total and above average defense, helped earn him his first All-Star nomination.  He ranks fourth in the league in positional player WAR and has been nothing short of superb as this lineup's catalyst.  Could threaten 100 runs, 200 hits, 20 homers and 50 steals if he keeps it up.

RF JD Drew-Has been downright horrible this year, but hasn't received as much negative attention thanks to Crawford's equally dismal first half.  Drew, 35, is also sputtering through the worst season of his career and seems to be declining precipitously.  He has to play everyday with that $14 million dollar paycheck, but that's only hurting the team.  Although he is still solid in the field, no team can afford to have a corner outfielder hit .229/.329/.317 with ten extra base hits and 21 RBI.  He's been underrated during his tenure in Boston and has taken more than his fair share of flak for the hefty price tag and backward Ks in the scorecards, but he's basically useless at the moment, leading Theo to consider a trade for the resurgent Carlos Beltran.

DH Davis Ortiz (AS)-Papi avoided a slow start for the first time since 2007, and it's made quite a difference in his numbers.  Although he's the same age as Drew and Scutaro, he's hitting much better than the both of them combined because he cut down on his whiffs and is hitting much better against southpaws this season.  His .304/.391/.574 is right in line with his 2003-2004 efficiency averages, and has more walks than strikeouts (a feat he accomplished in 2006 and 2007).  He slumped during the recent interleague road trip and lost twenty points on his average, but seems to have gotten his timing back.  Not the elite hitter he was in his prime, but still very dangerous and always hits well in the second half.

The other guys-The bench has been solid so far.  Captain Varitek has equaled Salty's production, so the Sox haven't lost any offense on days when they need to rest the latter.  McDonald has been atrocious and Cameron slumped his way onto the Florida Marlins, but Reddick and Sutton have both been great in limited roles.  Navarro's been decent as well.  Right now, McDonald is the only weak spot, but it's a glaring one considering he plays the most..

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