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Thursday, September 22, 2011

Dan Uggla's Rollercoaster Season

With 162 games, every baseball season is a marathon, so there are bound to be plenty of ups and downs throughout the six months.  Guys will catch fire and go ice-cold, and in the end everything usually evens out.  But has anyone been more hot-or-cold than Dan Uggla this season?
Dan Uggla has had his ups...
Before 2011, Uggla had been one of the most consistent players in baseball since he finished third in the 2006 NL Rookie of the Year voting.  He stayed healthy, rarely strayed far from his .263/.349/.488 career line and was a lock to provide at least 30 homers and 90 RBI from the keystone position.  He was money in the bank.  When the Marlins traded him to the Braves this past winter, it looked like a big win for the 30 year-old slugger.  Not only did he make out with a five year, $62 million contract, but he also escaped the offensive wasteland known as Sun Life Stadium and found a new home in the much more neutral Turner Field, where he sported great career numbers.  Uggla seemed primed for a great season, so much so that ESPN fantasy analyst Matthew Berry predicted the two-time All-Star would enjoy his first 40 homer season in 2011 after never hitting more than 33.

And it's easy to forget now, but Uggla got off to a terrible start.  And I'm not talking a couple weeks or even a month (or two).  He wasn't walking.  His ground balls weren't finding holes.  His fly balls weren't clearing the fences.  The calendar flipped to May, then June, then July, and he still wasn't hitting. 

...And his downs

On the morning of July 5th, he was hitting .173/.241/.327.  Now that's Adam Dunn bad right there, the kind of terrible you wouldn't wish on your worst enemy.  Sure, his .187 BABIP screamed unlucky, and he was still on pace for 23 home runs, but a year that began with so much promise had turned into a nightmare throughout spring and early summer.  Luckily for him, the Braves were winning and fellow underperformers Dunn, Carl Crawford, and Jayson Werth drew plenty of criticism for their own disastrous seasons, but Uggla was still cut from many a fantasy squad and seemed to have no hope of recovering his prolific power stroke.

That same day, he went 2-2 with a double and a big fly against the Rockies.  He proceeded to get at least one hit in each of his next 32 games to craft one of the most unlikely, improbable (he is the only player in the modern era to still be hitting under .200 at the end of a 20 game hit streak) 33 game hit streaks in baseball history.  Over the course of the streak he batted a scorching .377/.438/.762 and cranked 15 long balls.  Of course, his brutal first half meant that his batting average at the end of the streak was a very Danny Espinosa like .232, but in a little more than a month he had managed to salvage his season. 

He earned NL player of the month honors for August and, after five crazy months, has finally settled down in September.  The rollercoaster ride seems to have finally leveled out, for now.  He has neither slumped nor streaked during the month and recently smacked his 35th home run of the season, tying him with Matt Kemp and putting him just one behind Albert Pujols for the league.

Heck, with one more power binge he could make Talented Mr. Roto's bold prediction a reality. 

But his season isn't over yet; the Braves still need Uggla to produce over the next week if they want to hold on to their slim wild card lead and make the playoffs.  October baseball is unchartered territory for Uggla, who has yet to play in the postseason. 

The question is; which Uggla will show up?

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