Playoff Picture: One Week to Go

It's hard to believe, but the MLB regular season ends a week from today.  So with only seven or eight games remaining on most teams' schedules, I'll take one last look at the playoff picture.

AL East
Likely Division Winner-New York Yankees
Entering today's game, coolstandings.com gave the Bronx Bombers a 98.9 percent chance at winning the division.  The stumbling Red Sox are six games back with only seven to play, so New York's got this thing wrapped up.

AL Central
Division Winner-Detroit Tigers
Motown ran away with the division in September, built a double digit lead and already clinched.  Then again, it's possible no other team in the Central finishes above .500, so winning it in a landslide is about as impressive as Germany conquering France.  The only real questions remaining regard Justin Verlander; can he a) become the first starting pitcher since Bob Welch in 1990 to win 25 games in a season and/or b) become just the second starting pitcher in the last 40 years (Roger Clemens is the other) to take home MVP honors?  I say yes and no, respectively.

AL West
Likely Division Winner-Texas Rangers
The reigning AL champs will return to defend their title this October.  They haven't clinched yet, but coolstandings gives them a 98.5 percent chance to win the division since they have a comfy five game lead over the Halos with eight remaining.  I really thought the Angels had a shot at this thing because of their pitching (Dan Haren, Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver having great seasons) and they were nipping at the Rangers' boots until about a week ago, but Texas didn't fold.

AL Wild Card
Likely Winner-Boston Red Sox
Whatever there is to say about Boston's September swoon has been said already.  Their once insurmountable lead over Tampa Bay has been trimmed to two games (one in the loss column), but coolstandings still gives them a reassuring 87.9 chance to come out on top.  The race is still very much alive.

NL East
Division Winner-Philadelphia Phillies
Talk about a foregone conclusion for the only team guaranteed to win more than 100 games this season (they have 98 entering play on Wednesday) and it feels like they clinched in June.

NL Central
Likely Division Winner-Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew hold a five and a half game lead over the Redbirds (who'd be right there if Adam Wainwright hadn't been lost for the season) and with a 99.9 percent likelihood of winning the division, Milwaukee will be back in the postseason for the first time since C.C. Sabathia was pitching every other day for them down the stretch in 2008.

NL West
Likely Division Winner-Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco had the pitching with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, Madison Bumgarner and Brian Wilson to make this interesting, but the recent surges of Carlos Beltran and Pablo Sandoval haven't been enough to carry a thin lineup.  The loss of Buster Posey proved to be the crippling blow, and now the Snakes have a five and a half game lead and a 99 percent chance to win the division.

NL Wild Card
Likely Winner-Atlanta Braves
This race is just as interesting as the one for the Junior Circuit's wild card, but because it doesn't involve Boston, New York or Los Angeles no one seems to care.  The Braves, like Boston, have been decimated by injuries to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens while Derek Lowe is pulling a John Lackey and the unhittable bullpen duo of Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel is running out of gas. The result; a huge lead melting like a popsicle on a summer day.  Atlanta actually has a lower chance (81 percent) of winning the wild card than Beantown even though their lead (two and a half games) over St. Louis is slightly larger than Boston's lead over Tampa.  Even with Atlanta finishing the season against the Phils (who will likely be resting regulars and removing their vaunted starting pitchers after five innings), they both have soft schedules and the potential to create as much drama as Tampa and Boston.  Stay tuned.