Derby Recap/ASG Predictions

Derby Recap
-Just as I predicted, Prince Fielder outlasted Jose Bautista to win the State Farm Home Run Derby.  While I'm patting myself on the back, I also was correct in that Andrew McCutchen, the last minute replacement for Giancarlo Stanton, would not make it out of the first round.  Fielder, the NL version of David Ortiz as far as this event is concerned, proved that despite his pedestrian power figures this season he is still one of the top sluggers in the game.  He started slowly, with just five big flies in the first round, and I thought he was done for sure.  But his former NL buddies helped him out, allowing the burly slugger to sneak into the second round without so much as a swing off.  After that he ruled the event, knocking eleven out of the park in the second round (nobody else hit more than six) and a dozen more in the final round to blow Joey Bats away.  It seemed like every ball he hit splashed down in the right field fountains.  In all Fielder swatted 28 long balls, the fifth highest total in a single derby.  He also moved into fifth place all-time for derby dingers with 63.  Lastly, the Prince joined Ken Griffey Jr. as the only players to win multiple derbies and became the first player ever to win as a representative of both leagues. 

-Not too surprised Matt Kemp only managed to hit one out.  The National League Captain spent the last month and a half on the shelf because of his balky hamstrings, and hasn't hit a major league home run since the last day in April.  I was expecting him to be a little rusty, and you could tell he's still trying to get back in the swing of things.  The announcing team of Chris Berman, Nomar Garciaparra and John Kruk also noted that Kemp's true power (much like Alex Rodriguez in his prime) is to centerfield and the gaps, but Kauffman plays big out there so he was trying to pull the ball to left.  That hitting approach is outside his comfort zone, so it's no surprise he didn't have much success with it.  He hit just two last year, so perhaps like A-Rod he just isn't built for the derby. At least he went yard with the Gold Ball in play, so he made his one bomb count.  In fact, seven of the eight contestants smacked at least one Gold Ball over the fences, leading to a hefty $652,000 charitable donation from State Farm.  You're not the only one who cares, NBA.

-I am surprised American League Captain Robinson Cano didn't belt one out.  I know the circumstances were against him; his previous 24 hours consisted of an intense game against the Red Sox on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball, followed by a red-eye to Kansas City (5 AM arrival), and then the day-long media frenzy of obligatory press conferences and interviews.  That hectic schedule would wipe anyone out.  Still, his swing is so smooth, and he'd been so hot coming into the break (11 homers in June, currently sitting on a 15 game hitting streak) that I fully expected the reigning champ to pick up where he'd left off.  It probably didn't help that the seething capacity crowd, still upset that he picked Trumbo for the final spot after promising to select a Royal (would have been Billy Butler), booed him out of the stadium.  Just like last year when Chase Field let Fielder hear it for his snubbing Justin Upton/choosing teammate Rickie Weeks.  Perhaps it was karma, then, that the Yankee second baseman came up empty, the first player to do so since Brandon Inge was shut out in '09.

-On the other hand I was glad to see Carlos Beltran receive a nice applause from Kansas City fans.  Beltran spent his first six and a half seasons wearing the Royals white and blue, winning the 1999 Rookie of the Year there and establishing himself as one of the game's finest young centerfielders before he was dealt to Houston on June 24th, 2004.  I was surprised the 35 year-old switch hitter outslugged his younger NL teammates, all of whom are in the prime of their careers.

-Mark Trumbo put on a show.  That one shot to dead center looked like it never got higher than 15 feet off the ground, and he used the media booth beyond the left field bleachers as target practice.  He also provided the longest blast of the night, estimated at 490 feet. Fans may have disagreed with his selection, but Cano clearly knew what he was doing when he picked the Angels' mashing sophomore.

-There were 82 total home runs last night, coincidentally the same total from 2009, when Fielder won his first derby over Nelson Cruz in St. Louis.  There were 95 in each of the past two competitions, and you'd have to go all the way back the 2002 derby at Miller Park to find a derby with fewer dingers.  It still felt too long, clocking in at just under three hours and breaking Bill Simmons' 150 minute rule in the process

-The AL absolutely dominated the NL in terms of homers once again; 61 to 21.  Kemp, McCutchen and Carlos Gonzalez all made early exits after combining for just nine home runs, leaving Beltran to soldier on as the lone representative from the Senior Circuit.  As in the All-Star Game, the AL has held the upper hand here for quite awhile.  The National League has won just once in the past six years, with their lone victory coming in 2009 when they outhomered the AL 51 to 31. 

-A lefthanded hitter won, again.  Vladimir Guerrero (2007) is the only righty who has won the derby in the past eight competitions.

All-Star Game Predictions
1. The American League pulls out of it's two-year minislump and wins the game by a score of 4-2, giving the Texas Rangers homefield advantage in the World Series. 

2. The AL jumps out to an early lead after Derek Jeter pokes an opposite field single to open the game, then Cano (still getting booed like his name is Barry Bonds) takes Matt Cain deep.

3. Justin Verlander will be named MVP after he pulls a Pedro Martinez circa '99 All-Star Game at Fenway by mowing down the NL hitters.

4. David Ortiz, who still can't believe he's the only Red Sox player there, gets hopelessly lost in the bowels of Kauffman Stadium while searching for Manny Ramirez in between innings.

5. Youngsters Mike Trout and Bryce Harper (their combined ages are still younger than Chipper Jones) will both get to play, but won't do anything memorable.

6.  There will be approximately 300 pitching changes and defensive substitutions.

7. Nobody will get hurt (knock on wood Josh Hamilton)

8. Tony LaRussa, frustrated by Starlin Castro's boneheaded miscues and attitude problem, tries to trade him to the Blue Jays in a desperate attempt to get Colby Rasmus back.  Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos immediately rejects the offer.

9. Around the fifth inning you'll get bored of it and switch the channel, even though it's a Tuesday night in July and there's nothing else on.