Home Run Derby Teams

The two teams for the 2012 State Farm Home Run Derby were unveiled over the past two days.  The American League team is the same from last year with one exception; Angels' slugger Mark Trumbo will replace runner-up Adrian Gonzalez.  The team will be without Josh Hamilton, currently second in the majors with 25 home runs.  A cautious Hamilton declined a slot on the team because he doesn't want to risk injury, a wise choice given that he's averaged just 114 games played over the past three years. Matt Kemp and Prince Fielder return for the National League squad, which features three of the NL's top four home run hitters, and almost certainly would be four-for-four if Kemp had remained healthy during the first half.  The event will kick off at 8 PM Eastern Standard Time next Monday evening on ESPN.  It's important to remember that while Kauffman Stadium is not a great home run park (like Fenway it's more conducive to doubles), the ball travels well in the Missouri heat.  Plus, none of these guys make a living off dumping fly balls into the first row of the bleachers; they're all legit power hitters.

American League
Robinson Cano (Captain)-In his past 41 games (roughly a quarter of a season), the 2011 derby champ has left the yard 17 times, proving the old saying that sluggers traditionally inflict 50 percent of their damage in 25 percent of the year.  Over the course of a full season that pace equates to 68 home runs, something only the steroids-fueled tandem of Mark McGwire and Barry Bonds have ever accomplished.  His 20 dingers have him tied with Trumbo for seventh and his 15.4 AB/HR rate is tenth in the Junior Circuit.

Jose Bautista-The major league home run leader has piled up 27 four-baggers to date, and could reach 30 by the All-Star break for the second season in a row.  He's homering once every 10.8 at-bats, the best rate in baseball.  That's comparable to his pace in 2010, when he belted 54 over the fences.  Business as usual for Joey Bats, who's been the top home run hitter in the bigs since September, 2009.

Prince Fielder-Seems to be here based on his reputation as an elite slugger, because taking pitchers deep is the one thing Fielder has struggled with in the first year of his megadeal with the Detroit Tigers.  He's been trading contact for power; he's cut down on his strikeouts and is batting .297 but his ISO has plunged 80 points, mainly because he has socked just twelve home runs so far, which puts him on pace for about 25.  Most hitters would be happy with that, but for Fielder it would set a new career low, falling just short of the 28 he smacked as a 22 year-old rookie in 2006.  Not like I predicted this or anything.  He's also an every-other-year player who performs worse in even years, and last time I checked 2012 is indeed an even number.  I have this sneaky feeling that the 2009 Derby champ is going to thrill us with an eye-popping performance.

Mark Trumbo-This year's Mike Napoli has already jacked 20 homers (seventh in the AL) and boasts a 13.3 AB/HR ratio (sixth).  His batted ball stats are identical to the ones he posted last season with two glaring exceptions; he's popping up half as frequently and has boosted his HR/FB rate from 17.9 percent to 25 percent.  Trumbo's well on his way to surpassing the 29 big flies he totaled last year as a rookie, and could make a push at 40.  He's putting teammate Albert Pujols to shame right now.

Notable absences: Adam Dunn, Curtis Granderson, Edwin Encarnacion, David Ortiz, Billy Butler (hometown hero)

National League
Matt Kemp (Captain)-The 2011 National League home run leader (with 39) is working his way back from a hamstring injury that cost him most of May and all of June.  Consider that he bashed as many homers in April--12--as Prince Fielder has in 80 games this year.  If he stays fully healthy in the second half, he could still eclipse 30 bombs on the year.

Carlos Beltran-The oldest contestant hasn't shown his age in 2012.  His 20 moon shots and 13.7 AB/HR ratio are second only to reigning MVP Ryan Braun's 22 and 12.8 in the Senior Circuit.  23 percent of his flyballs are leaving the yard, the best rate of his career since FanGraphs started tracking such data in 2002.  With a price tage of 13 million dollars, he's a veritable bargain.

Carlos Gonzalez-He's tied with Jay Bruce for fourth in the NL with 17 taters, and his 17.2 HR/AB rate is good for eighth place.  Weirdly enough, he's getting the ball in the air less often than ever before (30.7 percent of batted balls) but is enjoying the best HR/FB rate (nearly 25 percent) of his career.  It also helps that he plays half his games in Coors Field.

Giancarlo Stanton-The best young slugger in the game.  Period.  His 19 home runs and 14.9 AB/HR rate put him third in the league behind Braun and Beltran in both categories.  Few players can hit a baseball farther, and his off-the-charts power stroke will be on full display in the derby.  It's very tempting to pick him as the winner, but I think he's probably going to try too hard and wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't make it out of the first round.  He'll either win the thing or make an early exit.

Notable absences: Braun, Bruce

My pick--Fielder over Bautista.  If Fielder wins he'll become the only player besides Ken Griffey Jr. to win multiple times.