Showing posts with label 2010s. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2010s. Show all posts

Thursday, October 30, 2014

San Francisco's Sneaky Dynasty

Watching the Giants win the last game of the season has become commonplace
It took the Giants 53 seasons to win a World Series after leaving New York following the 1957 season. The drought, snapped in 2010, has been followed by a deluge, as San Francisco has won two more championships since, all under the guidance of future Hall of Fame manager Bruce Bochy.

The Giants have done it with solid all-around teams. None of those title teams had a 30 home run hitter or a 20 game winner, but they were all deep and balanced. Kudos to GM Brian Sabean for building winning rosters year after year.

The first of those teams--the 2010 edition--was a good one. The '10 Giants won 92 games and the NL West, scoring nearly 700 runs while allowing below 600 for a strong run differential of +114. They were middle of the pack offensively but fielded an elite pitching staff that led the National League in ERA and strikeouts. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum fronted a rotation that included a 20 year-old rookie named Madison Bumgarner. The bullpen featured Brian Wilson at the peak of his powers (48 saves, 1.81 ERA) along with a pair of dominant relievers in Sergio Romo and Santiago Casilla.

Minus Bumgarner, the pitching staff was largely comprised of players in their prime. The starting nine was an odd mix of young (20 year-old Buster Posey in his rookie season, 23 year-old Pablo Sandoval in his third) and mostly old veterans and cast-offs (Aubrey Huff, Aaron Rowand, Pat Burrell, Edgar Renteria). But pretty much everyone could hit for some power and get on base, and so the Giants cobbled together a surprisingly effective lineup. They beat the Braves in four in the NLCS, toppled Philadelphia in six for the pennant, then glided past the Texas Rangers in five games for the championship.

After missing the playoffs with an 86-win season in 2011, the Giants won their division again in 2012. Though they won two more games than and outscored their 2010 predecessors by 21 runs (thanks almost entirely to Posey's MVP-season, Melky Cabrera's PED-fueled outburst, a career year from Angel Pagan, and Hunter Pence's late-season contributions), their pitching wasn't as good and their run differential slipped to +69.

Looking back, it's hard to believe how that lineup scored more than 700 runs when only one guy (Posey) hit more than a dozen home runs and only three reached double digits. Similarly, only those three exceeded 60 RBI, with Posey the only one over 65. But while the Giants did not have much power, ranking dead last in home runs with 100, they did excel at getting on base and getting hits. With many of the veterans from the 2010 squad gone or phased out, San Francisco was a younger and more athletic team (as evidenced by their 118 steals).

The key to that team's success was a rotation that remained remarkably healthy. The starting five of Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum, Barry Zito, and Ryan Vogelsong started all but two games that year. Lincecum went off the rails (10-15, 5.18 ERA), but the rest of the rotation was formidable enough to compensate. The bullpen was still led by Casilla, Romo, and Javier Lopez though Wilson had become irrelevant. Jeremy Affeldt, a member of the 2010 outfit, emerged as one of the team's best relievers to give San Fran a strong relief corps.

Those 2012 Giants were lucky to even reach the World Series. They went the distance against the Reds in the NLDS and prevailed over St. Louis in Game 7 of the NLCS. After that it was smooth-sailing, as they swept the heavily-favored Tigers in the World Series.

2013 was a nightmare season for San Francisco, which lost 86 games and was never really in contention. The Giants were better in 2014, good enough to make the playoffs but still not a great team. They earned a wild card berth with 88 wins and a +51 run differential mostly because of torrid second halves from Buster Posey and Jake Peavy.

The lineup, as always, had few standouts but was solidly constructed, overcoming significant injuries to four of the nine main contributors. Of the 10 players with the most plate appearances on the club, all but one (Brandon Hicks) had an OPS+ above 100. Like the 2010 version, they could all get on base and hit for a bit of pop, which goes a long way. The speed from the 2012 team was absent, however, as the plodding Giants swiped just 56 bases and finished last in the NL.

With Cain hurt and Lincecum ineffective, Bumgarner was the clear-cut ace. He had help in the form of Tim Hudson and, in the second half, Peavy, but San Fran's rotation was pretty thin (as exposed by the weak-hitting Royals in the Fall Classic). The bullpen was still headed by Affeldt, Romo, Lopez, and Casilla in addition to Jean Machi. Like the rotation, it was neither great nor terrible, which explains how San Francisco was so average.

But while this year's championship edition was the worst of the three, it had the easiest run up to the World Series. The Giants cruised past the Pirates in the play-in game, washed away the Nationals in four games in the NLDS, then upset the Cards in five games. They stumbled in the Fall Classic, nearly going down three games to one before rallying to win Games 4, 5, and 7. They may have needed plenty of help from Mr. Bumgarner, but at the end of the day they still got the job done.








Tuesday, October 28, 2014

The Dubious History of the Hank Aaron Award

Yesterday's post about Giancarlo Stanton and Mike Trout winning this year's Hank Aaron awards got me thinking about past award winners and whether or not they were deserving. I was surprised to find that in many years the winner was not truly the most outstanding offensive performer, as voters were oftentimes seduced by big home run and RBI totals. See for yourself:

(It's worth noting that the voting procedure for this award has changed constantly since its inception in 1999. See a detailed history here).

1999 NL Sammy Sosa over everyone else
Slammin' Sammy's 397 total bases and 89 extra base hits led all of baseball, but with 5.0 oWAR he was barely one of the NL's ten best offensive performers. Larry Walker, winner of baseball's sabermetric Triple Crown, would have made a better choice, as would have Mark McGwire, the major league leader in home runs (65) and OPS+ (176). NL MVP Chipper Jones would have been a good one as well with his league-leading 7.9 oWAR and 165 runs created. Sabermetricians would have preferred Jeff Bagwell, the NL-leader in walks, runs, and times on base. I'm torn between Bags and Big Mac, but in either case it's clear Sosa should not have won.

2001 AL Alex Rodriguez over Jason Giambi
With his league-leading 52 home runs, 393 total bases, 87 extra base hits, and 9.2 oWAR, Rodriguez was absolutely worthy. But to me, at least, it's pretty clear that Giambi was more deserving. Giambi was right behind him in oWAR with 8.7, had just as many extra base hits, and was third in total bases. But that's just the tip of the iceberg, because Giambi paced the AL in many categories. He was first in OBP (.477) and slugging (.660), resulting in a whopping 199 OPS+ and 1.137 OPS that was almost 100 points higher than the next-closest American Leaguer (Jim Thome). Giambi was also tops in doubles with 47, walks with 129, runs created with 171, and times on base with 320. The counting stats favor Rodriguez slightly, but the rate stats say Giambi was way better, especially after taking into account their home ballparks (A-Rod in Texas and Giambi in Oakland).

2002 AL Alex Rodriguez over Jim Thome
Rodriguez once again posted monster numbers with Texas, leading the major leagues with 57 home runs, 142 RBI, and 389 total bases. But as in 2001, there was a slugger with similar counting stats and far better rate stats who deserved the award. This time, it was Jim Thome, the American League leader in slugging (.677), OPS (1.122--more than 100 points higher than A-Rod's), OPS+ (197), walks (122), and runs created (155). The advanced stats say Thome was better, and I'm inclined to agree with them.

2003 AL Alex Rodriguez over Carlos Delgado
For the third year in a row, Rodriguez enjoyed a tremendous offensive season but was not the best in his league. This time he was outdone by Delgado, who won the award in 2000. Delgado, then with the Toronto Blue Jays, posted the league's second-highest OBP (.426), slugging (.593), oWAR score (6.5), home run total (42), and walk total (109), plus topped the Junior Circuit in OPS (1.019), OPS+ (161), RBI (145), runs created (152), and times on base (300). Very close here, as Rodriguez did lead in runs, homers, slugging, oWAR, and AB/HR, but Delgado had the better year from an offensive standpoint.

2003 NL Albert Pujols over Barry Bonds
With all apologies to Prince Albert, who had a hell of a season, this award should have gone to the man who batted .341/.529/.749 (a 1.278 OPS!) with 45 home runs, 148 walks, and 8.6 oWAR, even if he was taking performance enhancing substances.

2005 AL David Ortiz over Alex Rodriguez
One look at the leaderboards this year tells you all you need to know. Ortiz led the league in RBI (148), extra base hits (88), and a trio of advanced metrics (WPA, RE24, and REW). A-Rod led in just about everthing else. For starters, his league-leading 9.4 oWAR dwarf's Ortiz's, which didn't even crack the top 10. Rodriguez also topped the Circuit in slugging (.610), OPS (1.031), OPS+ (173), runs (124), homers (48), runs created (163), and times on base (301) while finishing second in a bunch of other categories (AB/HR, Power-Speed, total bases, batting average, and OBP). A-Rod beat out Big Papi in the league MVP voting, and he should have done the same here.

2005 NL Andruw Jones over Derrek Lee
Jones had the flashier power numbers with a league-leading 128 RBI and ML-best 51 big flies, but with a .263 batting average and .347 OBP was hardly worthy of the honor. He didn't even finish in the league's top 10 in runs created, OPS, or oWAR. Lee's 46 homers and 107 RBI weren't quite as splashy, but his overall body of work was much stronger that year. He was undoubtedly the best hitter in baseball, topping the bigs in doubles (50), batting average (.335), slugging (.662), OPS (1.080), OPS+ (174), total bases (393), extra base hits (99) and runs created (167). He also led the National League in hits (199) and oWAR (7.2).

2006 AL Derek Jeter over David Ortiz
Jeter led the league in oWAR and times on base, with 7.1 and 295, respectively, but his season was nowhere near as dominant as Big Papi's. Ortiz led the league in a host of categories, winning two-thirds of the Triple Crown with 54 dingers and 137 RBI while batting .287/.413/.636, giving him the league's second-best slugging percentage, seventh-best OBP, and third-best OPS. He also led the league in walks with 119, total bases with 355, runs created with 152, and AB/HR with 10.3. He also placed second to Jeter in times on base and second to Grady Sizemore in extra base hits. Seeing as how this was the year Justin Morneau walked away with MVP honors, it was a tough season awards-wise.

2007 NL Prince Fielder over Matt Holliday
In a redux of the 2005 vote, Fielder won on the strength of his huge power numbers (including a league-best 50 homers) even though Holliday had the superior all-around numbers. Cecil Fielder's son only led the NL in one other category--WPA--while Holliday placed first in several, such as batting average (.340), hits (216), doubles (50), total bases (386), RBI (137), extra base hits (92), and runs created (151). Fielder was better than Jones in '05 and Holliday wasn't quite as good as Lee, but even after dinging Holliday for Coors Field he still comes out ahead.

2008 AL Kevin Youkilis over Alex Rodriguez
Not sure what happened here, as Youkilis did not lead the American League in a single offensive statistic. Rodriguez, meanwhile, was tops in oWAR (6.5) and slugging (.573) while placing second in OPS (.965) and OPS+ (150) as well as power-speed, adjusted batting runs and wins, and offensive win percentage. A-Rod wasn't the clear favorite, as one could make a case for Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, and Joe Mauer as well, but he was definitely better than Youk.

2008 NL Aramis Ramirez over Albert Pujols
This has to be one of the most questionable selections in the history of the award. Ramirez had a fine season, batting .289/.380/.519 with 27 home runs and 111 RBI, but failed to lead the league in any significant statistic. Pujols, the National League MVP, had perhaps his best offensive season. All the Machine did was bat .357/.462/.653 and lead the major leagues in slugging, OPS (1.114), OPS+ (192), total bases (342), oWAR (7.4), runs created (160), and times on base (296). Pujols should have been a no-brainer, and the fact that he didn't win that year blows my mind.

2009 AL Derek Jeter over Joe Mauer
Jeter was magnificent in 2009, batting .334/.406/.465 with 212 hits and 30 steals, but he was not the best offensive performer in the American League that year. Not by a long shot. Jeter didn't lead the league in anything besides times on base (289), and wasn't even the best hitter on his own team (Mark Teixeira, the MVP runner-up, was). League MVP Joe Mauer should have been an easy choice after he won the Junior Circuit's sabermetric Triple Crown with his .365/.444/.587 line, making him the only American Leaguer with a four-point OPS. Mauer also paced the league in oWAR (7.6), OPS+ (171), and runs created (138), too name a few. This is just another example of Jeter being overrated. Mauer Power was robbed.

2010 AL Jose Bautista over Miguel Cabrera
Joey Bats was not the American League's top offensive performer in spite of his major league-leading 54 big flies and 351 total bases. Cabrera didn't hit as many bombs but still had the superior offensive season, with his 1.042 OPS (just two points shy of Hamilton for the league lead) clocking in at nearly 50 points higher than Bautista's .995 mark. Furthermore, Miggy led the league with his 126 RBI, 420 OBP, 178 OPS+, 141 runs created, and 272 times on base. He was also second in extra base hits, total bases, runs scored, slugging, and batting average.

2012 NL Buster Posey over Ryan Braun
I was all in on Posey for MVP that year, but I don't think he was the league's top offensive performer despite leading the majors in batting average (.336) and OPS+ (171). I believe Braun, who topped the Circuit in runs (108), homers (41), OPS (.987), total bases (356), extra base hits (80), runs created (142), and power-speed #, was.

That's 14 of the 32 selections to date--not a very good success rate. As you can see the awards have been more accurate over the past five or so years, which hopefully means the iffy years of the award's early history are behind us. One thing's for certain; at least Derek Jeter will never steal another one of these awards from a more deserving player ever again.