We're two-thirds of the way through the baseball season, so that means it's time for more fun with on-pace numbers. I'll start this round with American League players.
-Despite slow starts from Mark Teixeira and Albert Pujols, Tex is still on pace for 30 home runs and 108 RBI while Phat Albert is in line for 47 doubles, 36 big flies, 114 ribbies and 336 total bases. Remember when their fantasy owners were pulling out clumps of hair in May?
-Derek Jeter is on pace for 210 hits. Shame on me for thinking he was done two years ago.
-Tough year for Mark Reynolds, currently on track to strike out 153 times (very low for him) but hit just a dozen home runs
-Edwin Encarnacion's dream season continues. He's in line for 44 home runs, 111 RBI, 104 runs and 330 total bases.
-Fernando Rodney is on pace to notch 48 saves. So is Orioles' closer Jim Johnson.
-Miguel Cabrera is on pace for his first 40 homer season, as well as 107 runs, 209 hits, 42 doubles, 137 RBI, and 372 total bases. The only blemish on his stellar stat line is his 30 GIDP pace.
-Jarrod Saltalamacchia is on pace for 30 home runs, but Jon Lester and Josh Beckett are both on pace to go 8-14.
-Despite the two month abyss into which Josh Hamilton disappeared, he's still on pace for 44 home runs, 135 RBI and 323 total bases.
-A.J. Pierzynski is on pace to bash 31 home runs and knock in 92 runs, figures that would blow away his previous career highs of 18 and 77. Meanwhile, teammate Adam Dunn is on pace for 47 home runs, 111 RBI, 120 walks, 327 total bases and, get this, 234 strikeouts. Carlos Pena is also on pace to whiff more than 200 times this season.
-Michael Brantley is on pace for 48 doubles, but teammate Shin-Soo Choo is in line for 50.
-Josh Willingham is on pace for 42 home runs, 122 RBI and 309 total bases.
-Alex Gordon is on track for 56 doubles but just 9 home runs
-Max Scherzer is on pace for 240 strikeouts
-Matt Harrison is on pace to win 20 games
-Wunderkind Mike Trout continues to blow rival phenom Bryce Harper out of the water, as the former is on pace for 129 runs scored, 29 home runs, 50 steals, 314 total bases, and eleven bWAR. Imagine what his numbers would look like if he had started the season on the Angels' roster.
-Mark Trumbo is on pace for 42 home runs, 108 RBI and 323 total bases.
-Ubaldo Jimenez is on pace to issue 114 free passes and throw 18 wild pitches
-Ervin Santana and Tommy Hunter are on pace to allow 39 home runs
-Justin Verlander is on pace to toss nine complete games
-Jered Weaver is on pace to go 22-2
-Josh Reddick is on pace for 36 four-baggers. So are Adam Jones and Robinson Cano.
-Jason Vargas is on pace to win 18 games and complete 230 innings, which would look pretty good if he didn't share a rotation with Felix Hernandez
-Curtis Granderson is proving last season was no fluke. He's on track for 113 runs, 44 homers, and 93 RBI. All that power means tons of strikeouts, though--potentially 195 of them.
-And, last but not least, Ichiro Suzuki is on pace to make 522 outs this season.
Monday, August 6, 2012
Quietly Brutal Hitters
The following players are having terrible seasons, but seem to be avoiding the scrutiny and heckling they deserve. That means I'm not going to talk about players like Justin Upton and Adrian Gonzalez, the struggles of whom have drawn much publicity. I tried to pick players who play everyday, and thus inflict even more damage on their own team. With offense still depressed across both leagues, there were many more players I could not include, but I hope this is a good snapshot.
Carlos Pena (.196/.322/.359)
With Evan Longoria lost for most of the season, Tampa Bay really needed Pena to pick up the slack and be the guy who averaged 36 home runs, 102 RBI and an .884 OPS with the club from 2007-'10. He's still working his walks, but is on pace to finish with his worst HR/RBI totals since 2006, when he played all of 18 games for my Boston Red Sox. The 34 year-old first baseman has yet to miss a game, so it might be time to take one off soon.
Casey Kotchman (.233/.287/.349)
Had a nice season with the Rays last year, but just isn't getting the job done for the Tribe this season.
Cliff Pennington (.197/.259/.282)
C'mon Billy Beane. I know great shortstops are hard to find, but surely you have one in your system better than this.
Dan Uggla (.209/.342/.360)
Ever since joining the Braves, the power hitting second baseman has made a habit of suffering through prolonged batting slumps that languish into the dog days of summer. Last year on the morning of August 6th, Uggla was riding a 26 game hitting streak at the time but still woke up with a .215/.283/.423 batting line. Sure, the NL-leading 66 walks are nice, but where's the power? Uggla has averaged 32 home runs per season throughout his major league career, but enters play today sitting on twelve. A hot streak is probably just around the corner for the streaky slugger, and I'd be surprised if he fell short of 20 bombs in 2012.
John Buck (.172/.285/.305)
Why is he still catching everyday? At this point Ozzie Guillen should just pick a random fan out of the stands every night and have him/her put on the pads, because it's impossible to do much worse than this.
Toronto's middle infield (Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar)
Aside from outhomering every American League team that doesn't play its home games in New York, Escobar, it's safe to say Toronto's potent offense has been a disappointment. And while Adam Lind, Brett Lawrie, and Jose Bautista have all underperformed to some degree, it's Johnson and Escobar who are the worst offenders. At the keystone position Johnson (.233/.321/.373) has failed to hold up his end of the bargain from last summer's Aaron Hill trade. Meanwhile Escobar, who's proven himself to be an above average shortstop, is batting a paltry .256/.301/.345 this season. His protracted slump is reminiscent of 2010, when he was dealt to the Blue Jays midseason and finished with a career worst .256/.337/.318 batting line. Wondering if we have an every-other-year player in the making here.
Michael Young (.271/.297/.347)
Like Ichiro Suzuki, Young seems to have lost it overnight. But as long as the Rangers have the best record in the American League, I don't think people are going to start picking on him. It's easy to hide in an All-Star lineup that features Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, and Mike Napoli, isn't it? It amazes me that given the caliber of talent around him he's managed only 45 RBI and 50 runs scored despite batting out of the five hole. Just a year removed from leading the majors in hits and nearly winning a batting title, the 35 year-old is having the worst season of his career by far. His power has evaporated; he has just three home runs on the season and hasn't gone yard since May 7th, a span of three months! For a guy who splits most of his time between DH and first base, that lack of pop is simply unacceptable. With nine hits in his last six games he seems to be snapping out of it, but we may have seen the end of Young as an effective everyday player. Ron Washington will continue to play him out of respect.
Scott Rolen (.236/.312/.382)
Speaking of veterans in the twilight of their careers, Rolen is more washed up than your old pair of gym shorts. While counterpart Chipper Jones has aged gracefully, Rolen's career has taken the Ken Griffey Jr. approach since he kissed his twenties goodbye. He's fortunate the Reds have more wins than any other team, otherwise he'd probably be riding the pine more often than not.
Jordan Schafer (.218/.306/.304) and Brian Bogusevic (.212/.299/.316)
In case you didn't hear, the Astros are bad. Really bad. I'm guessing these two outfield regulars have something to do with that.
Clint Barmes (.210/.238/.295)
Was alright with the Rockies for awhile there, but since leaving Coors Field behind his flaws have been exposed.
Carlos Pena (.196/.322/.359)
With Evan Longoria lost for most of the season, Tampa Bay really needed Pena to pick up the slack and be the guy who averaged 36 home runs, 102 RBI and an .884 OPS with the club from 2007-'10. He's still working his walks, but is on pace to finish with his worst HR/RBI totals since 2006, when he played all of 18 games for my Boston Red Sox. The 34 year-old first baseman has yet to miss a game, so it might be time to take one off soon.
Casey Kotchman (.233/.287/.349)
Had a nice season with the Rays last year, but just isn't getting the job done for the Tribe this season.
Cliff Pennington (.197/.259/.282)
C'mon Billy Beane. I know great shortstops are hard to find, but surely you have one in your system better than this.
Dan Uggla (.209/.342/.360)
Ever since joining the Braves, the power hitting second baseman has made a habit of suffering through prolonged batting slumps that languish into the dog days of summer. Last year on the morning of August 6th, Uggla was riding a 26 game hitting streak at the time but still woke up with a .215/.283/.423 batting line. Sure, the NL-leading 66 walks are nice, but where's the power? Uggla has averaged 32 home runs per season throughout his major league career, but enters play today sitting on twelve. A hot streak is probably just around the corner for the streaky slugger, and I'd be surprised if he fell short of 20 bombs in 2012.
John Buck (.172/.285/.305)
Why is he still catching everyday? At this point Ozzie Guillen should just pick a random fan out of the stands every night and have him/her put on the pads, because it's impossible to do much worse than this.
Toronto's middle infield (Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar)
Aside from outhomering every American League team that doesn't play its home games in New York, Escobar, it's safe to say Toronto's potent offense has been a disappointment. And while Adam Lind, Brett Lawrie, and Jose Bautista have all underperformed to some degree, it's Johnson and Escobar who are the worst offenders. At the keystone position Johnson (.233/.321/.373) has failed to hold up his end of the bargain from last summer's Aaron Hill trade. Meanwhile Escobar, who's proven himself to be an above average shortstop, is batting a paltry .256/.301/.345 this season. His protracted slump is reminiscent of 2010, when he was dealt to the Blue Jays midseason and finished with a career worst .256/.337/.318 batting line. Wondering if we have an every-other-year player in the making here.
Michael Young (.271/.297/.347)
Like Ichiro Suzuki, Young seems to have lost it overnight. But as long as the Rangers have the best record in the American League, I don't think people are going to start picking on him. It's easy to hide in an All-Star lineup that features Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, and Mike Napoli, isn't it? It amazes me that given the caliber of talent around him he's managed only 45 RBI and 50 runs scored despite batting out of the five hole. Just a year removed from leading the majors in hits and nearly winning a batting title, the 35 year-old is having the worst season of his career by far. His power has evaporated; he has just three home runs on the season and hasn't gone yard since May 7th, a span of three months! For a guy who splits most of his time between DH and first base, that lack of pop is simply unacceptable. With nine hits in his last six games he seems to be snapping out of it, but we may have seen the end of Young as an effective everyday player. Ron Washington will continue to play him out of respect.
Scott Rolen (.236/.312/.382)
Speaking of veterans in the twilight of their careers, Rolen is more washed up than your old pair of gym shorts. While counterpart Chipper Jones has aged gracefully, Rolen's career has taken the Ken Griffey Jr. approach since he kissed his twenties goodbye. He's fortunate the Reds have more wins than any other team, otherwise he'd probably be riding the pine more often than not.
Jordan Schafer (.218/.306/.304) and Brian Bogusevic (.212/.299/.316)
In case you didn't hear, the Astros are bad. Really bad. I'm guessing these two outfield regulars have something to do with that.
Clint Barmes (.210/.238/.295)
Was alright with the Rockies for awhile there, but since leaving Coors Field behind his flaws have been exposed.
Sunday, August 5, 2012
Quietly Awesome (AL Hitters)
To see the NL edition, scroll down or go here.
Austin Jackson (.316/.405/.500)
The 2010 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up endured a brutal sophomore slump last season, but he's made adjustments and his numbers have improved accordingly. He's been much more selective this year (walking more, whiffing less) and the new approach is paying off, as the 25 year-old has already posted career bests in home runs and RBI. All three of his triple slash stats rank in the top ten among American Leaguers. Had he not missed three weeks of action earlier in the season, we'd probably be throwing his name around in the MVP discussion. Hard to believe the free-swinger is getting on base at a 41 percent clip, but he'll keep scoring plenty of runs setting the table for Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. He's also one of the more underrated defensive centerfielders and seems destined to win multiple Gold Gloves.
Cody Ross (.264/.335/.516)
By some measures Ross has been the best position player on the Red Sox this season. At least offensively.
Alejandro De Aza (.292/.354/.416)
The 28 year-old centerfielder has flourished in his first season as an everyday player, but that shouldn't surprise anyone who paid attention to his robust .347/.423/.562 line during the final six weeks of last year. ADA has been a force at the top of Chicago's lineup all season long by getting on base, swiping bags (his 20 steals rank seventh in the AL) and scoring lots of runs (69-fifth). With 34 extra base hits to date, he also has solid pop for a speedy leadoff hitter.
Alex Rios (.317/.349/.541)
Following an abysmal 2011 (you can argue he was worse than Adam Dunn. Seriously), the notoriously streaky Rios is putting together a career year here in 2012. He hasn't batted .300 or slugged .500 since his breakout campaign in 2006, but barring a Josh Hamilton-esque two month stretch to close the season he should surpass both benchmarks with relative ease. He's also on pace to enjoy his first 100 RBI season, but he has no shortage of opportunities batting behind De Aza, Kevin Youkilis, Dunn, and Paul Konerko.
Yoenis Cespedes (.310/.370/.531)
Cespedes had the misfortune of making his American debut in a season ripe with rookie talent. Mike Trout, Yu Darvish, Bryce Harper, Matt Moore, Wade Miley, Lance Lynn, and Will Middlebrooks, among others, have all made waves, pushing Cespedes' impressive campaign to the back burner. Health has been an issue for him as well, whereas the aforementioned youngsters have all been able to stay on the field. But since the All-Star Break nobody can hold a candle to Cespedes, who's batting a ridiculous .430/.483/.696 over the last 20 games, a dozen of which have been multi-hit efforts. Obviously he (and his team) can't stay this hot much longer, but at least he's lived up to the hype that preceeded his arrival in the States. Also have to give a shout out to Josh Reddick here.
Matthew Joyce (.270/.371/.477)
More of the same from Joyce, who's essentially repeating 2011's rock solid .277/.347/.478 batting line. His counting stats are unimpressive because he missed a quarter of the season, but he leads the Rays in OPS and boasts a stellar 138 OP+. Much like teammate Ben Zobrist he flies under the radar while guys like B.J. Upton and Desmond Jennings make flashier plays and wind up on ESPN.
Billy Butler (.301/.370/.492)
If Country Breakfast goes .300-30-100 in Kansas City, and nobody's there to hear it, does it make a sound?
Shin-Soo Choo (.289/.375/.475)
A great bounceback season for Choo, who's always been one of the more underappreciated players in the game (how he failed to make the All-Star team in either 2009 or 2010, when the Tribe averaged 95 losses, is beyond me). Could go 20/20 with 100 runs scored and 50 doubles, and even with his increased strikeout rate he remains a threat to bat .300.
Joe Mauer (.320/.416/.442)
Another exceptional season from the three time batting champ, who's leading the AL in on-base percentage and has returned to form after a dismal, injury plagued 2011. Unfortunately the Twins are the second worst team in the Junior Circuit, so few outside of Minnesota seem to care. Same goes for Josh Willingham, who could swat 40 long balls, and Justin Morneau, who's been much better than last season.
Austin Jackson (.316/.405/.500)
The 2010 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up endured a brutal sophomore slump last season, but he's made adjustments and his numbers have improved accordingly. He's been much more selective this year (walking more, whiffing less) and the new approach is paying off, as the 25 year-old has already posted career bests in home runs and RBI. All three of his triple slash stats rank in the top ten among American Leaguers. Had he not missed three weeks of action earlier in the season, we'd probably be throwing his name around in the MVP discussion. Hard to believe the free-swinger is getting on base at a 41 percent clip, but he'll keep scoring plenty of runs setting the table for Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. He's also one of the more underrated defensive centerfielders and seems destined to win multiple Gold Gloves.
Cody Ross (.264/.335/.516)
By some measures Ross has been the best position player on the Red Sox this season. At least offensively.
Alejandro De Aza (.292/.354/.416)
The 28 year-old centerfielder has flourished in his first season as an everyday player, but that shouldn't surprise anyone who paid attention to his robust .347/.423/.562 line during the final six weeks of last year. ADA has been a force at the top of Chicago's lineup all season long by getting on base, swiping bags (his 20 steals rank seventh in the AL) and scoring lots of runs (69-fifth). With 34 extra base hits to date, he also has solid pop for a speedy leadoff hitter.
Alex Rios (.317/.349/.541)
Following an abysmal 2011 (you can argue he was worse than Adam Dunn. Seriously), the notoriously streaky Rios is putting together a career year here in 2012. He hasn't batted .300 or slugged .500 since his breakout campaign in 2006, but barring a Josh Hamilton-esque two month stretch to close the season he should surpass both benchmarks with relative ease. He's also on pace to enjoy his first 100 RBI season, but he has no shortage of opportunities batting behind De Aza, Kevin Youkilis, Dunn, and Paul Konerko.
Yoenis Cespedes (.310/.370/.531)
Cespedes had the misfortune of making his American debut in a season ripe with rookie talent. Mike Trout, Yu Darvish, Bryce Harper, Matt Moore, Wade Miley, Lance Lynn, and Will Middlebrooks, among others, have all made waves, pushing Cespedes' impressive campaign to the back burner. Health has been an issue for him as well, whereas the aforementioned youngsters have all been able to stay on the field. But since the All-Star Break nobody can hold a candle to Cespedes, who's batting a ridiculous .430/.483/.696 over the last 20 games, a dozen of which have been multi-hit efforts. Obviously he (and his team) can't stay this hot much longer, but at least he's lived up to the hype that preceeded his arrival in the States. Also have to give a shout out to Josh Reddick here.
Matthew Joyce (.270/.371/.477)
More of the same from Joyce, who's essentially repeating 2011's rock solid .277/.347/.478 batting line. His counting stats are unimpressive because he missed a quarter of the season, but he leads the Rays in OPS and boasts a stellar 138 OP+. Much like teammate Ben Zobrist he flies under the radar while guys like B.J. Upton and Desmond Jennings make flashier plays and wind up on ESPN.
Billy Butler (.301/.370/.492)
If Country Breakfast goes .300-30-100 in Kansas City, and nobody's there to hear it, does it make a sound?
Shin-Soo Choo (.289/.375/.475)
A great bounceback season for Choo, who's always been one of the more underappreciated players in the game (how he failed to make the All-Star team in either 2009 or 2010, when the Tribe averaged 95 losses, is beyond me). Could go 20/20 with 100 runs scored and 50 doubles, and even with his increased strikeout rate he remains a threat to bat .300.
Joe Mauer (.320/.416/.442)
Another exceptional season from the three time batting champ, who's leading the AL in on-base percentage and has returned to form after a dismal, injury plagued 2011. Unfortunately the Twins are the second worst team in the Junior Circuit, so few outside of Minnesota seem to care. Same goes for Josh Willingham, who could swat 40 long balls, and Justin Morneau, who's been much better than last season.
Friday, August 3, 2012
Quietly Awesome (NL hitters)
These guys are flying under the radar or have been grossly underrated, but are quietly enjoying great seasons.
Ryan Ludwick (.264/.333/.555)
The 34 year-old journeyman outfielder has proven to be a nice free agent pickup for the Reds. He doesn't get the attention of teammates Joey Votto, Jay Bruce or Brandon Phillips, but the truth is that he's been the second best hitter on Cincinatti's NL Central leading club. The one-time All-Star's production fell off drastically after St. Louis dealt him on deadline day two years agao, but he looks rejuvenated back in the comforts of midwestern America. With 19 bombs in just 265 at-bats, his 13.9 AB/HR rate would rate second in the Senior Circuit (behind only Ryan Braun) if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. The .291 ISO is pretty good, too.
Matt Holliday (.322/.407/.557)
The six-time All-Star is consistently one of the best hitters in the game (I see him as a poor man's Miguel Cabrera), yet nobody ever talks about him. Since putting a putrid April slump behind him, all Holliday has done is bat .356/.444/.614 over the past three months. He's already matched last season's RBI total and is on track for his best all-around season since his heyday in Colorado. Doesn't need Albert Pujols.
Allen Craig (.295/.362/.556)
The Cardinals outfielder doesn't get much respect because of his inability to stay on the field. He had tough luck with injuries in the early-going, missing all of April and then two more weeks at the end of May, sitting out 41 games in all. Amazingly, all that time on the shelf hasn't affected his performance one bit. Just to give you an idea of how productive he's been on a per-game basis, if you project his numbers over 162 games he'd have 46 doubles, 38 home runs, 137 RBI, and 117 runs scored. And if that doesn't impress you, consider this; over his past 139 games (roughly a full season), he's batted .304/.362/.556 with 59 extra base hits and 94 RBI.
Paul Goldschmidt (.304/.372/.543)
Like Holliday, he's been much better since a sluggish start to the season. Going back to April 30th the talented sophomore has maintained .328/.394/.597 triple slash stats while blasting 14 of his 15 home runs. The brutal opening month has done irreparable damage to his counting stats, though his 30 doubles rank fifth in the Natioal League. His slugging percentage and OPS are both in the top 10, too. Even if he strikes out too much to keep hitting north of .300, Goldy has been the second best first-sacker in the NL this year behind Votto.
Jason Kubel (.287/.363/.557)
Is thriving in his Diamondbacks debut with a career best .270 ISO. His name is plastered all over the NL leaderboards, and his 72 ribbies are just four fewer than league leader Carlos Beltran's 76. The 26.3 percent whiff rate is alarming, but nobody's going to complain if he winds up with 30-plus dingers and 110 RBI. I see him finishing with numbers similar to Adam Lind's 2009 breakout.
Dexter Fowler (.294/.381/.508)
The major league leader in triples has finally started to realize his potential, and does a whole lot more than hit three-baggers. Colorado's speedster has already doubled his previous career high in round-trippers, stayed healthy and is much more efficient on the basepaths (nine of eleven in stolen base attempts). Could threaten the rare 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 home run combo season last achieved by Curtis Granderson, I believe, but probably will have to settle for 15/15/15.
Adam LaRoche (.270/.345/.507)
Bryce Harper hogs all the media coverage, Ian Desmond is a revelation and Ryan Zimmerman has taken his game to another level since receiving a cortisone shots six weeks ago, but LaRoche is the one leading the Nats in home runs, RBI, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. It also helps that he's managed to avoid the injury bug that's feasted on Desmond, Zimmerman, Michael Morse, and Jayson Werth. With so many key pieces missing large chunks of time, he picked a good year to avoid a Mark Teixeira-esque slow start. Don't be surprised if the second half stud blows by the 30 homer/100 RBI benchmarks.
Carlos Quentin (.261/.380/.489)
It's not easy to get a lot of love when you suit up for the Padres, in my opinion the most boring team year-in and year-out. But even as he wastes away for a team well out of his contention, he continues to provide strong offensive numbers. With his .228 ISO Quentin has proved that he can still mash even after swapping home fields on opposite ends of the spectrum; the homer friendly U.S. Cellular Field for the spacious Petco. Missed all of April and most of May (not surprising for someone who averaged 120 games played from 2008-'11), but extrapolate his numbers over the course of a full season and he smashes 33 doubles and 30 home runs. His 143 OPS+ shines, but I'm more impressed by his 26/24 K/BB ratio.
Martin Prado (.300/.359/.424)
Another fine season from Prado, who's proving that his down 2011 was an aberration. He's nearly tripled his previous career high in thefts with 13 (against just one caught-stealing), has maintained a 46/40 K/BB rate and is gunning for his fourth .300 season in the past five years. As a leftfielder, the five home runs and .424 SLG leave a lot to be desired but he does have 28 doubles. There's no doubt his numbers would look even more impressive if he was still playing his natural position of second base, but that's just not possible with Dan Uggla around. I feel like many Braves are underrated this year--especially Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Michael Bourn--because Chipper Jones' final season is overshadowing them.
Aaron Hill (.299/.355/.487)
You can argue Hill has been the best second baseman in the National League this year, better than Brandon Phillips, Jose Altuve and all the rest. Good to see Hill back on track after his career started to fizzle out in Toronto; since joining the Snakes late last year he's batting .303/.363/.483 with 59 extra base hits in 135 games.
Pirates not named Andrew McCutchen
Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez and Garrett Jones have stepped up to provide the team's franchise player with some much needed support. All three have come to life at the plate after doing nothing in the season's first third. Walker and Jones are tied for the second best OPS+ on the Bucs with 122, while Alvarez is the only NL third baseman with a serious shot to rip 30 homers.
Ryan Ludwick (.264/.333/.555)
The 34 year-old journeyman outfielder has proven to be a nice free agent pickup for the Reds. He doesn't get the attention of teammates Joey Votto, Jay Bruce or Brandon Phillips, but the truth is that he's been the second best hitter on Cincinatti's NL Central leading club. The one-time All-Star's production fell off drastically after St. Louis dealt him on deadline day two years agao, but he looks rejuvenated back in the comforts of midwestern America. With 19 bombs in just 265 at-bats, his 13.9 AB/HR rate would rate second in the Senior Circuit (behind only Ryan Braun) if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. The .291 ISO is pretty good, too.
Matt Holliday (.322/.407/.557)
The six-time All-Star is consistently one of the best hitters in the game (I see him as a poor man's Miguel Cabrera), yet nobody ever talks about him. Since putting a putrid April slump behind him, all Holliday has done is bat .356/.444/.614 over the past three months. He's already matched last season's RBI total and is on track for his best all-around season since his heyday in Colorado. Doesn't need Albert Pujols.
Allen Craig (.295/.362/.556)
The Cardinals outfielder doesn't get much respect because of his inability to stay on the field. He had tough luck with injuries in the early-going, missing all of April and then two more weeks at the end of May, sitting out 41 games in all. Amazingly, all that time on the shelf hasn't affected his performance one bit. Just to give you an idea of how productive he's been on a per-game basis, if you project his numbers over 162 games he'd have 46 doubles, 38 home runs, 137 RBI, and 117 runs scored. And if that doesn't impress you, consider this; over his past 139 games (roughly a full season), he's batted .304/.362/.556 with 59 extra base hits and 94 RBI.
Paul Goldschmidt (.304/.372/.543)
Like Holliday, he's been much better since a sluggish start to the season. Going back to April 30th the talented sophomore has maintained .328/.394/.597 triple slash stats while blasting 14 of his 15 home runs. The brutal opening month has done irreparable damage to his counting stats, though his 30 doubles rank fifth in the Natioal League. His slugging percentage and OPS are both in the top 10, too. Even if he strikes out too much to keep hitting north of .300, Goldy has been the second best first-sacker in the NL this year behind Votto.
Jason Kubel (.287/.363/.557)
Is thriving in his Diamondbacks debut with a career best .270 ISO. His name is plastered all over the NL leaderboards, and his 72 ribbies are just four fewer than league leader Carlos Beltran's 76. The 26.3 percent whiff rate is alarming, but nobody's going to complain if he winds up with 30-plus dingers and 110 RBI. I see him finishing with numbers similar to Adam Lind's 2009 breakout.
Dexter Fowler (.294/.381/.508)
The major league leader in triples has finally started to realize his potential, and does a whole lot more than hit three-baggers. Colorado's speedster has already doubled his previous career high in round-trippers, stayed healthy and is much more efficient on the basepaths (nine of eleven in stolen base attempts). Could threaten the rare 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 home run combo season last achieved by Curtis Granderson, I believe, but probably will have to settle for 15/15/15.
Adam LaRoche (.270/.345/.507)
Bryce Harper hogs all the media coverage, Ian Desmond is a revelation and Ryan Zimmerman has taken his game to another level since receiving a cortisone shots six weeks ago, but LaRoche is the one leading the Nats in home runs, RBI, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. It also helps that he's managed to avoid the injury bug that's feasted on Desmond, Zimmerman, Michael Morse, and Jayson Werth. With so many key pieces missing large chunks of time, he picked a good year to avoid a Mark Teixeira-esque slow start. Don't be surprised if the second half stud blows by the 30 homer/100 RBI benchmarks.
Carlos Quentin (.261/.380/.489)
It's not easy to get a lot of love when you suit up for the Padres, in my opinion the most boring team year-in and year-out. But even as he wastes away for a team well out of his contention, he continues to provide strong offensive numbers. With his .228 ISO Quentin has proved that he can still mash even after swapping home fields on opposite ends of the spectrum; the homer friendly U.S. Cellular Field for the spacious Petco. Missed all of April and most of May (not surprising for someone who averaged 120 games played from 2008-'11), but extrapolate his numbers over the course of a full season and he smashes 33 doubles and 30 home runs. His 143 OPS+ shines, but I'm more impressed by his 26/24 K/BB ratio.
Martin Prado (.300/.359/.424)
Another fine season from Prado, who's proving that his down 2011 was an aberration. He's nearly tripled his previous career high in thefts with 13 (against just one caught-stealing), has maintained a 46/40 K/BB rate and is gunning for his fourth .300 season in the past five years. As a leftfielder, the five home runs and .424 SLG leave a lot to be desired but he does have 28 doubles. There's no doubt his numbers would look even more impressive if he was still playing his natural position of second base, but that's just not possible with Dan Uggla around. I feel like many Braves are underrated this year--especially Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Michael Bourn--because Chipper Jones' final season is overshadowing them.
Aaron Hill (.299/.355/.487)
You can argue Hill has been the best second baseman in the National League this year, better than Brandon Phillips, Jose Altuve and all the rest. Good to see Hill back on track after his career started to fizzle out in Toronto; since joining the Snakes late last year he's batting .303/.363/.483 with 59 extra base hits in 135 games.
Pirates not named Andrew McCutchen
Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez and Garrett Jones have stepped up to provide the team's franchise player with some much needed support. All three have come to life at the plate after doing nothing in the season's first third. Walker and Jones are tied for the second best OPS+ on the Bucs with 122, while Alvarez is the only NL third baseman with a serious shot to rip 30 homers.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Trade Deadline Recap
Quick recap of some of the major moves from the past few days.
Yesterday
Jonathan Broxton to Reds
Broxton returns to the Senior Circuit after filling in as Kansas City's closer while Joakim Soria recovers from Tommy John surgery. He won't get to close in Cincy--the Reds pay Aroldis Chapman to do that--but he might see some action as the set-up man. I'm surprised Cincinnati made this move given the strength of their bullpen, but relief pitchers are volatile by nature and it never hurts to load up the bullpen with talented arms.
Ryan Dempster to Rangers
After losing both Neftali Feliz and Colby Lewis for the season and failing to land Zack Greinke, Texas sought another arm. Even with regression looming on the horizon, Dempster should provide some much needed stability to the rotation. I think the lifelong National Leaguer is going to struggle in his new digs much like Roy Oswalt did earlier in the season with the Rangers.
Hunter Pence to Giants
As the great Yogi Berra once said, this must feel like "deja vu all over again" for Pence, who was dealt on July 29th last year from Houston to Philly. Great move for the Giants, who have all the pitching you could ask for but always seem to be short a bat or two, especially with Pablo Sandoval on the DL again. Pence is a productive middle of the order threat on the verge of clearing the 20 homer threshold for the fifth consecutive season, and he arrives just in time for San Fran's playoff push.
Shane Victorino to Dodgers
Teams up with Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to create a formidable outfield. The Flyin' Hawaiian has been mired in a slump for much of the season (did he forget 2012 was his contract year?) but recently showed some signs of life at the plate by batting .385 with eight extra-base hits over his past 14 games. If he can continue to get on base for Kemp and Ethier, he's going to score a ton of runs and make the Dodgers' lineup that much better.
Casey McGehee to Yankees
Just some third base depth while Alex Rodriguez is on the mend, because backup Eric Chavez can no longer man the hot corner everyday. The Yankees were reportedly interested in Chase Headley as well, but settled for McGehee, a subpar defender who hasn't hit a lick since 2010.
Older moves
Greinke to Angels
To sum it up, I tweeted at Matthew Berry that his trade made the Angels' already stacked starting rotation (Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, and Ervin Santana) just as powerful as the Avengers. To see more in-depth analysis, look here.
Ichiro Suzuki to Yankees
Like the Boston Celtics, the Bronx Bombers just can't seem to get any younger. The 38 year-old Ichiro is nothing more than a shell of his former self, but still brings plenty of defense and speed to the table (a poor man's Brett Gardner, minus the walks). I'm surprised he still gets to play everyday at this stage in his career, especially since Suzuki's lefty-righty splits (OPS nearly 200 points lower against southpaws) make him more of a platoon candidate. Obviously he benefits from moving to a superior lineup and friendlier home park.
Hanley Ramirez to Dodgers
It had become increasingly clear that HanRam needed a change of scenery to rejuvenate his bat, and sure enough he's performed like his old self since packing his bags for the west coast. Playing for a contender should keep him motivated down the stretch, and don't be surprised if he goes on a tear in the near future. Who knows--maybe the sulking star will put together a Manny Ramirez (circa 2008) finishing touch on his season. He certainly has the talent.
Wandy Rodriguez to the Pirates
Finally! Way-Rod's name has surfaced in trade rumors for years, and now he's escaped the baseball black hole known as the Houston Astros. He bolsters an already solid Pittsburgh staff, and may be arriving just in time as the wheels start to fall off James McDonald's season. Rodriguez is nothing special, but he's a consistent, slightly above average southpaw. You can never have enough pitching.
Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to Tigers
Sanchez's numbers bear an eery resemblance to Rodriguez's statistics. After dominating through the end of May he's regressed, posting an ugly 5.82 ERA over the past two months. I expect that he'll more or less maintain his four-plus ERA going forward, with some good starts canceled out by a few stinkers. The rotation, other than Justin Verlander, has lacked consistency, but Max Scherzer and Doug Fister have pitched well lately. Infante is nothing to get excited about; a middle infielder who can hit for decent average but doesn't do much else. Blah.
Carlos Lee to Marlins
This move would have been a big deal five years ago, when "El Caballo" could eclipse .300-30-100 in his sleep. But he's 36 now, and his home run totals declined in each of the past five seasons. With just six round-trippers to date, expect that trend to continue. I know Gaby Sanchez wasn't getting the job done at first base, but honestly Lee isn't much of an upgrade.
Marco Scutaro to Giants
See Infante, Omar. But for some reason, I like Scutaro better (is it because he played for the Red Sox?)
Geovany Soto to Rangers
A nice backup catcher to have for Mike Napoli, who isn't exactly known for his durability. Soto has decent pop, and you could do a whole lot worse than the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year.
Francisco Liriano to White Sox
Francisco Liriano is like a box of chocolates; you never know what you're gonna get. The White Sox hope he can keep up his recent hot streak.
And for what it's worth, I'm glad Boston didn't sell low on Josh Beckett. Already made that mistake with Kevin Youkilis.
Yesterday
Jonathan Broxton to Reds
Broxton returns to the Senior Circuit after filling in as Kansas City's closer while Joakim Soria recovers from Tommy John surgery. He won't get to close in Cincy--the Reds pay Aroldis Chapman to do that--but he might see some action as the set-up man. I'm surprised Cincinnati made this move given the strength of their bullpen, but relief pitchers are volatile by nature and it never hurts to load up the bullpen with talented arms.
Ryan Dempster to Rangers
After losing both Neftali Feliz and Colby Lewis for the season and failing to land Zack Greinke, Texas sought another arm. Even with regression looming on the horizon, Dempster should provide some much needed stability to the rotation. I think the lifelong National Leaguer is going to struggle in his new digs much like Roy Oswalt did earlier in the season with the Rangers.
Hunter Pence to Giants
As the great Yogi Berra once said, this must feel like "deja vu all over again" for Pence, who was dealt on July 29th last year from Houston to Philly. Great move for the Giants, who have all the pitching you could ask for but always seem to be short a bat or two, especially with Pablo Sandoval on the DL again. Pence is a productive middle of the order threat on the verge of clearing the 20 homer threshold for the fifth consecutive season, and he arrives just in time for San Fran's playoff push.
Shane Victorino to Dodgers
Teams up with Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to create a formidable outfield. The Flyin' Hawaiian has been mired in a slump for much of the season (did he forget 2012 was his contract year?) but recently showed some signs of life at the plate by batting .385 with eight extra-base hits over his past 14 games. If he can continue to get on base for Kemp and Ethier, he's going to score a ton of runs and make the Dodgers' lineup that much better.
Casey McGehee to Yankees
Just some third base depth while Alex Rodriguez is on the mend, because backup Eric Chavez can no longer man the hot corner everyday. The Yankees were reportedly interested in Chase Headley as well, but settled for McGehee, a subpar defender who hasn't hit a lick since 2010.
Older moves
Greinke to Angels
To sum it up, I tweeted at Matthew Berry that his trade made the Angels' already stacked starting rotation (Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, C.J. Wilson, and Ervin Santana) just as powerful as the Avengers. To see more in-depth analysis, look here.
Ichiro Suzuki to Yankees
Like the Boston Celtics, the Bronx Bombers just can't seem to get any younger. The 38 year-old Ichiro is nothing more than a shell of his former self, but still brings plenty of defense and speed to the table (a poor man's Brett Gardner, minus the walks). I'm surprised he still gets to play everyday at this stage in his career, especially since Suzuki's lefty-righty splits (OPS nearly 200 points lower against southpaws) make him more of a platoon candidate. Obviously he benefits from moving to a superior lineup and friendlier home park.
Hanley Ramirez to Dodgers
It had become increasingly clear that HanRam needed a change of scenery to rejuvenate his bat, and sure enough he's performed like his old self since packing his bags for the west coast. Playing for a contender should keep him motivated down the stretch, and don't be surprised if he goes on a tear in the near future. Who knows--maybe the sulking star will put together a Manny Ramirez (circa 2008) finishing touch on his season. He certainly has the talent.
Wandy Rodriguez to the Pirates
Finally! Way-Rod's name has surfaced in trade rumors for years, and now he's escaped the baseball black hole known as the Houston Astros. He bolsters an already solid Pittsburgh staff, and may be arriving just in time as the wheels start to fall off James McDonald's season. Rodriguez is nothing special, but he's a consistent, slightly above average southpaw. You can never have enough pitching.
Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante to Tigers
Sanchez's numbers bear an eery resemblance to Rodriguez's statistics. After dominating through the end of May he's regressed, posting an ugly 5.82 ERA over the past two months. I expect that he'll more or less maintain his four-plus ERA going forward, with some good starts canceled out by a few stinkers. The rotation, other than Justin Verlander, has lacked consistency, but Max Scherzer and Doug Fister have pitched well lately. Infante is nothing to get excited about; a middle infielder who can hit for decent average but doesn't do much else. Blah.
Carlos Lee to Marlins
This move would have been a big deal five years ago, when "El Caballo" could eclipse .300-30-100 in his sleep. But he's 36 now, and his home run totals declined in each of the past five seasons. With just six round-trippers to date, expect that trend to continue. I know Gaby Sanchez wasn't getting the job done at first base, but honestly Lee isn't much of an upgrade.
Marco Scutaro to Giants
See Infante, Omar. But for some reason, I like Scutaro better (is it because he played for the Red Sox?)
Geovany Soto to Rangers
A nice backup catcher to have for Mike Napoli, who isn't exactly known for his durability. Soto has decent pop, and you could do a whole lot worse than the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year.
Francisco Liriano to White Sox
Francisco Liriano is like a box of chocolates; you never know what you're gonna get. The White Sox hope he can keep up his recent hot streak.
And for what it's worth, I'm glad Boston didn't sell low on Josh Beckett. Already made that mistake with Kevin Youkilis.
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