Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Spurs/Thunder Preview

Well, that was disappointing.

The Western Conference semfinals presented a pair of great matchups--Lakers/Thunder and Spurs/Clippers--that seemingly had the potential to turn into seven game prizefights, but both Los Angeles teams combined managed to win just one game.  Fans hoping to see a Lakers/Clippers duel for the Western Conference title, basketball's equivalent of a "Subway Series," will have to wait until next year.

San Antonio, who swept the Utah Jazz in the first round and enjoyed more than a week of rest before the semis, rolled over the Clippers, who never had much of a chance with Chris Paul and Blake Griffin still banged up from their exhausting first round meeting with the Memphis Grizzlies.  The Clips couldn't contain the Spurs top ranked offense, which shot north of 50 percent for the series continued to pile up points--more than 100 per game--as they have all season long.  San Antonio also outrebounded and outpassed Los Angeles, dominating their younger opponents in just about every facet of the game.  Accordingly, LA lost the first three matches by an average of fourteen points and were clearly overmatched.  They recovered to put up a spirited fight in Game 4 at home before ultimately winding up on the wrong end of a 102-99 score.

For the San Antonio Spurs, it was just business as usual.  They have not lost since April 11th, when the Lakers handed them their 16th and final loss of the regular season.  They've won 29 of their previous 31 games (a sizzling .935 winning percentage), so in that regard there is no hotter team in basketball.  They're like a well-oiled machine; efficient and methodical. 

Meanwhile the Oklahoma City Thunder disposed of the "Slow Time" Lakers in five games with their victories coming by an average margain of twelve and a half points.  But aside from the series opener (a 29 point drubbing) and clincher (a 16 point blowout), the middle three games were all decided by a single possession and could have gone either way. Ironically OKC, the much less experienced team, overcame LA leads late in Games 2 and 4 by executing in the fourth quarter.  Luckily for them LA choked; Pau Gasol disappeared, Kobe Bryant didn't live up to his "clutch" reputation and the Lakers simply didn't make shots, hitting a measly 41.8 percent from the floor and 28.2 percent from beyond the arc (both figures were four percent below their regular season averages).  For the second year in a row, the Lakers exited the playoffs in the second round and will embark on another tumultuous offseason.

But they're history.  The Western Conference Finals begin on Sunday night, and there's no doubt that it's going to be a competitive, hard-fought series between the top two seeds in the west (akin to Ali-Frazier).  The aging Spurs dynasty, pursuing a fifth championship since 1999, is making a last stand of sorts while the up-and-coming Thunder are poised to begin their own run.  Both teams will be well-rested, and despite the age disparity they are big, versatile, well-coached, and fundamentally sound.  Tim Duncan was in top form during the Clippers series, averaging 21 points and 9 boards per game while connecting on more than 59 percent of his field goal attempts. It will be interesting to see if OKC's premier interior defenders Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka can keep him out of the paint.  There are other intriguing matchups in the backcourt, too. Point guards Tony Parker and Russell Westbrook play a similar style of basketball since both like to attack the rim because neither one possesses a great outside shot.  Unlike a Rajon Rondo or Steve Nash, their best asset is scoring, not distributing. Shooting guard James Harden has already earned comparisons to Manu Ginobili, and at a thin position the duo is among the game's best. 

OKC can't match San Antonio's incredible depth, coaching, chemistry, polish, or playoff experience, but in the end I think the Thunder's youth and superior talent (read Kevin Durant) will help them prevail.  One thing's for certain; San Antonio's winning streak will come to an end because there's no way they pull off a third sweep in a row.For what it's worth, the Spurs took the season series two games to one. 

My prediction: Thunder in seven.  And the Celtics are going to close out the Sixers tonight in Philly.

6 comments:

  1. *the spurs swept the jazz not the mavs. Ant to your conclusion i dissagree, after having watched all three of their regular season games (i know regular season doesnt matter) and followed both of their playoff series a few things become apparent. though OKC seemingly comes out ontop in the vital head to head (harden>ginobili durant>leonard westbrook>parker ibaka<duncan perkins<diaw)it isnt crushing in any one position, durant far outplays leonard but kwahi is a defensive ace that will make him work for every point, tony and russ will basicly play eachother to nill with westbrooks athlethisism and parkers speed and craftyness playing to a standstill this can trun either way, parker will most probably get his and he will have a hard time defending westbrook alone just because he is so much stronger and more athletic but coach pop has shown in their regular season matchups that he knows exactly how to play westbrook which is by frcing him to be a jumpshooter. harden will outplay ginobili unless he comes alive but not drasticaly and duncan will manhandle ibaka on the block, though he is a awsome shotblocker and can jump out of the building his basic defensive skills are laking in some departments (defensive angles, timing on the pick and roll, guarding face up players, biting on pump fakes ect) which duncan is perfectly situated to expose. overall the spurs play almost perfectly on every offensive possetion which will stretch the thunder defence and you can be sure coach pop will have a couple of tricks up his sleve
    spurs in 6

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  2. No doubt the Spurss are going to be a challenge, and they very well could beat the Thunder. It's a toss up, but I've got a good feeling about OKC.

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  3. a good feeling based on hype? im not accusing or anything um asking how much of this is unbaiased opinion have you followed both teams?

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  4. I think the Spurs depth advantage is overstated. The Thunder are 10 deep as well with a bench of Collison, Nazr, Cook, Fisher and Harden. Further, I think it's fair to say the Thunder have developed incredible chemistry throughout the current run. I think it's likely Spurs in 7 (I hope it goes 7, really. it's gonna be excellent basketball), but the meme of "excellent team vs great athletes" is bunk.

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  5. first i havent mentioned their depth if you were arguing. and i totaly agree the spurs depth is overstated mostly because those players wont stand against "starters" and starter quality players play alot more minutes, but the spurs straters have been underrated simply because they have played less dusring the regular season and their ball movement and offence has only become recognized now in the playoffs. i say this as a basketball fan and not a spurs fan, i love the thunder and in one to three years they will have a championship but haing followed the nba for quite a hilw and watching the 1999 spurs which this team is offensively atleast better than i dont see many teams beating them. okcs youth and talent have enough to take a couple of games but only if two of their big three have amazing games, the thunder arent to deep either and i dont see that happening over seven games. still spurs in 6

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  6. http://nba-point-forward.si.com/2012/05/25/spurs-thunder/#more-17909

    check this out it has some quite good points about the series im not sure if i agree with all of them but its a good read

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