Pats Beat Baltimore

Amendola was the unlikely hero with two TD catches (NY Post)

The New England Patriots won a nailbiter, narrowly edging out the Ravens 35-31 in today's divisional playoff game.

Their fifth playoff bout produced an instant classic, a grueling fight to the finish on a bitterly cold day in Foxborough. Twice the Patriots went down by 14 points, and twice they stormed right back. Baltimore burst from the gate, scoring touchdowns on their first two drives and jumping out to a 14-0 cushion. New England rallied to tie in the second quarter and was driving towards the end of the half, only to have their potential go-ahead possession busted by a Tom Brady pick. Joe Flacco made the Pats pay, slinging his third TD pass of the game to Owen Daniels shortly before the first half closed.

New England got the ball to start the second half, but once again Baltimore scored first, this time on a Flacco pass to Justin Forsett. That gave the Ravens their second 14-point advantage of the evening, but again they failed to hold it. Brady and the Pats came storming down the field, using a succession of quick passes that culminated with a end zone strike to Rob Gronkowski. 

The highlight of the game came New England's next possession. It was a flawlessly executed flea-flicker where Brady passed to Julian Edelman on his left. Edelman, a quarterback for three years at Kent State, turned and fired a perfect pass down the sideline to Danny Amendola, who ran into the endzone for a most unlikely touchdown (and his second of the game).

The score remained locked at 28-28 into the fourth quarter, but not for long as the Ravens took their third lead of the game on a Justin Tucker field goal. The Patriots immediately answered with Brady's third passing TD of the game (and fourth overall). The pass to Brandon LaFell was Brady's 46th career postseason touchdown, passing Joe Montana for most ever.

More importantly, New England had its first lead of the game. The Patriots locked it down by intercepting Flacco in their own end zone with little more than two minutes remaining. It was the second time they picked off Flacco in the second half, whose streak of 198 consecutive passes without a pick in the postseason came to an end at the worst possible time. 

Flacco had been impeccable up to that point, adding to his sterling postseason resume by tallying four touchdown passes and outplaying Brady for much of the game. But when his team needed him the most, with him engineering a season-saving drive on the road, he choked. His deep throw went off target, fell into the hands of Duron Harmon, and that mistake effectively doomed their chances.

The $120 million quarterback, whom the NBC announcers annointed Mr. January at some point during the game (looks like they spoke too soon!), got the ball back with four seconds left in regulation. He received the snap, eluded New England's pass rush, and hurled a heart-stopping hail mary into New England's endzone. Thankfully, the Patriots' defenders far outnumbered the Ravens' receivers, and Devin McCourty was able to bat Flacco's prayer out of the end zone to seal the victory.

It doesn't get much closer than that. Thankfully, the Patriots live to fight another day and will host the AFC title game next weekend, likely against Peyton Manning's Denver Broncos. After exacting revenge on the Ravens for the 2013 AFC championship game, it would be nice if New England could do the same against Denver for last year's title game. With the weather expected to be much less favorable than the balmy 60 degree day in Colorado last January, look for Brady to get the best of his archrival once again.

Thankful for Tucker

Tucker has made 33 consecutive field goals

Like millions of Americans, I play fantasy football. "Play" is the wrong word, I think, because it implies that there's actually some degree of fun involved. Personally, I find fantasy to be much more frustrating and agonizing than it should be. Drafting is fun, trades are fun, and winning is fun, but that accounts for 10, maybe 15 percent of the fantasy season  I've wasted way too much time scouring the waiver wire, pouring over projections and tinkering with my roster.

Then Sunday rolls around and it becomes a full-blown obsession. I compulsively check my phone from one o'clock onward, watching the points pile up (or not), rooting for my players to score and hoping the other guys' don't. Fantasy consumes my entire day. When I win, it's more of a relief than anything, especially when ESPN pegs me as a 25 point favorite. When I lose, I go back to the drawing board and try to determine where I went wrong.

For much of the season, my most glaring weakness was my kicker, which is strange considering there are plenty of good kickers to be had on the waiver wire since nobody carries more than one. Well, after whiffing on multiple kickers, I've finally found my guy, and just in time for the playoffs.

I've heard fantasy football teams compared to dreams in that they're only interesting to the person talking about them. You snagged Philip Rivers off waivers? Great. Took Aaron Rodgers with your first pick? That blows.

So if that's the case, then you probably don't want to hear my ramble about my kicker issues and how I solved them at the season's 11th hour. That's fine. Feel free to stop reading and check out some of my other content (hint hint: it's mostly baseball), or click off my blog altogether.

But maybe you've had your own kicker-induced headaches/nightmares/frustrations this season. Perhaps you're still looking for a solution. I probably would be, too, except that I've found the answer to my kicker woes. His name is Justin Tucker.

Quick backstory: last year I was undone by Mason Crosby, who converted just 21 of his 33 field goal attempts (63.6 percent). By the time I realized the error of my ways and swapped him out for Dan Bailey, it was already too late. I finished 8-7, narrowly missing the playoffs because I lost or tied several games that would have been victories with a merely capable kicker.

This year I was determined to avoid making the same mistake. Let Crosby be someone else's problem, I told myself. I would avoid outdoor kickers (who must contend with rain, snow, and gale-force winds) like the plague. Not surprisingly, Matt Bryant was my draft day selection. At the time, I was pretty happy about that. Bryant led the league in field goal percentage a few years back and has been one of the NFL's most consistent kickers over the past decade. I figured Atlanta's Matt Ryan-helmed passing attack would give him plenty of scoring opportunities.

Before long, my master plan had been reduced to ashes. Ryan's top two receivers--Roddy White and Julio Jones--both got hurt, and Tony Gonzalez, as great as he still is, can only do so much at this stage in his career. Atlanta's offense sputtered and Bryant's role was greatly diminished. As a result, in ESPN leagues he ranks 20th among kickers in points scored, meaning he's not worthy of a starting spot in my ten-team league. Before long I was looking to the waiver wire for help.

I settled on Garrett Hartley of the New Orleans Saints. Unlike Atlanta, the Saints have one of the league's most explosive offenses. On top of that I already had Drew Brees, so I figured it made sense to get Hartley's extra point every time he threw a touchdown and would settle for field goals when Brees's drives fell just short. While my logic was sound, Hartley's been far from automatic, missing eight of his 30 attempts thus far and ranking 19th at the position, exactly one spot higher than Bryant. That wasn't going to cut it, and when New Orleans' Week 7 bye came around I found myself in need of a new kicker.

I scooped up Nick Novak, San Diego's kicker, and he's been pretty good (eighth). Unfortunately, he was on my team for all of two minutes before I cut him in favor of Detroit's David Akers, who paced the NFL in field goal attempts four out of the past five years.  The opportunities just haven't been there for him this year (only 20 attempts), and as a result he ranks 30th among kickers. I rode him out for three weeks, then cut bait just before Thanksgiving.

By this point I was extremely fed up with myself. Nothing was working. I was in the playoff hunt and couldn't afford to let a kicker sink my season. Desperate for a stable solution, I decided to go out and grab the best kicker on the waiver wire, regardless of team, reputation, or schedule, and settled on Baltimore's Justin Tucker, who was coming off a 15 point game against the Jets. Nicknamed "Mr. Automatic," Tucker hasn't missed a field goal attempt since Week 2. That he had several favorable matchups in front of him (Pittsburgh, Minnesota) made him even more attractive. I was instantly rewarded with a 19 point performance against the Steelers. Tucker won me over. He had me at hello. I committed to him for the rest of the season, even as he was held without a field goal versus Minnesota in Week 14.

Now, thanks to his incredible performance against Detroit last night (six-for-six, connecting from 49, 53, and 61 yards out), Tucker has leapfrogged Stephen Gostkowski and Matt Prater to become fantasy's top-scoring kicker. I have to say, after putting up with subpar kickers all season long, it feels good to have the best. One less thing to worry about as I prepare for my postseason. Now if I could only find a halfway decent wide receiver...

13 Super Bowl Predictions

1. There is a missed field goal (looking at you, David Akers)
2. Frank Gore rushes for a touchdown (or two)
3. Joe Flacco unleashes a TD pass longer than 50 yards
4. Ray Lewis's career ends with a whimper when he doesn't find the end zone and is held below 50 rushing yards
5. Ray Rice, on the other hand, has a huge game 
6. Colin Kaepernick does it in the air and on the ground, racking up multiple touchdowns and more than 300 all-purpose yards in the process
7. Beyonce kills it during the halftime show, and Jay-Z makes an appearance as well
8. The ads won't be that funny
9. There is a surprising amount of offense for what is supposed to be a battle between two of the NFL's top defenses
10. Randy Moss does not record a catch
11. Bernard Pollard gets hurt and justice is served (for Patriots fans, at least)
12. Michael Oher doesn't have any penalties called on him
13. The 49ers win