Why Reyes Deserves Carl Crawford Money

Last winter, Theo Epstein made a huge splash by signing Carl Crawford to a seven year, $142 million contract.  Crawford was fresh off his best major league season after getting selected to the All-Star team, winning his first Silver Slugger and Gold Glove, and finishing seventh in the AL MVP race on the strength of career highs in runs (110), home runs (19), RBI (90), SLG (.495), OPS (.851) and OPS + (135).  He also led the league in triples with 13 and helped Tampa Bay win their second AL East title in three years.  Crawford was so alluring that Epstein passed on Jayson Werth, a slightly cheaper option who seemed like a better fit for the Sox given his right-handed power bat and track record of succeeding in a high pressure baseball town (Philadelphia), to basically sign a player he already had in Jacoby Ellsbury.  Werth wasn't much better than Crawford last season anyways, but I think they'll both bounce back in 2012 (Crawford could be next season's Curtis Granderson without the 41 homers).

This winter, Jose Reyes is a free agent and apparently wants a Carl Crawford kind of contract even though he has not played more than 133 games in a season since 2008.  He has a case, though, especially considering the switch-hitter plays shortstop and will be nearly a full year younger than Crawford was when he signed his gargantuan contract.  And while he isn't quite the same dominant player who teamed with David Wright, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado to form a powerful Mets lineup from 2006 to 2008, he proved he's still a superb, exciting leadoff hitter by edging Ryan Braun for the NL batting title, leading the Senior Circuit in triples and walking more than he struck out.  Unstoppable before the All-Star break, Reyes had forced himself into the MVP discussion before a midseason injury derailed his season and slowed his momentum.  The hamstring issues have robbed him of some of the speed and aggression that once made him a threat to steal 80 bases in a season, but the rest of his skills are clearly intact and no one will complain if he "only" swipes half as many.

After comparing their careers (minus Crawford's dreadful 2011 debut in Boston), I noticed some interesting parallels besides their similar player profiles as top of the order speedsters:

-Both entered free agency after playing nine big league seasons, the last of which was their age 28 season
-Both were 4-time All-Stars
-Both had exactly one Silver Slugger
-Both led their respective leagues in triples four times, with career highs of 19, and had more career three-baggers than four-baggers
-Nearly identical OPS+ (107 for Crawford, 106 for Reyes)
-The last year either one led the league in stolen bases was 2007 (after also leading in 2006)
-Their career triple slash stats were all within four points of the other's
-Almost same career totals in runs, doubles, triples, caught stealing, and sacrifice hits
-Played for good teams ('06-'08 Mets, '08-'10 Rays) and some bad teams ('03, '04, and '09 Mets, every Rays team before 2008)
-They had arguably their best seasons in their walk years

As you can see, their pre-free agency careers are eerily similar, and Reyes is undoubtedly headed for a big pay day.  The only question is who will employ his services.

Why Pujols Should Stay

Free agency started today, and baseball's top-heavy class is loaded with elite talent this winter, boasting big names such as Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, Jonathan Papelbon, Carlos Beltran, and David Ortiz.  But none of these stars shine as bright or will be more coveted than Albert Pujols.  The three time NL MVP is unquestionably the game's most productive hitter of the new millenium, but the soon to be 32 year old just finished his worst season of his career (monster postseason notwithstanding).  After a tumultuous offseason in which the Cardinals and Pujols seemed worlds apart in contract negotiations (Pujols turned down a 9 year, $200 million offer), Phat Albert failed to hit .300 and knock in 100 runs for the first time while also setting career lows in hits, doubles, walks, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+ and total bases (he also had the dubious distinction of leading the Senior Circuit in double plays grounded into, which he also accomplished in the other worst season of his career-2007). 

2011 was clearly not the kind of Adrian Beltre walk-year Pujols wanted to have for leverage at the bargaining table, instead leading many to question whether he has entered the decline phase of his career.  He's in a similar situation to the one Derek Jeter was in last winter, minus the advanced age and positional difference, who skidded into free agency after completing a long term deal and ultimately handstrung the Yankees to grossly overpay him during the twilight of his career.  Pujols may end up doing the same, especially if he commands the Alex Rodriguez kind of money that New York will still be paying after the next two presidential elections.

But A-Rod is another good comparison for Pujols, since both were widely regarded as the premier player in baseball and hit the market prior to their age 32 seasons.  The difference, of course, is that pre-steroid revelation Rodriguez enjoyed a banner year in the Bronx with 143 runs, 54 big flies, 156 RBI, a 1.067 OPS and countless clutch hits while manning the hot corner.  He opted out, and no one could afford the kind of money he was looking for, but the Steinbrenner boys handed him a 10 year, $275 million dollar contract with an additional $30 million in home run milestone incentives.  A-Rod hasn't been the same player since, and New York will have to eat every penny as he continues to break down over the next six seasons.

No one seems capable of affording a Rodriguez contract combining length and annual salary, especially since the Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies are all set at first base for years to come with Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira and Ryan Howard.  After making half as much as Rodriguez during the prime cut of his career, Pujols deserves a massive pay raise but will likely have to settle for a shorter term deal with a higher annual salary (say six or seven years, 200 mil) especially since teams are becoming more cautious about signing players in their thirties to long term deals (unless you're the Nationals and want Jayson Werth at all costs).  Having a World Series winning team should help the organization persuade their superstar to return, but new rings didn't stop Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui from moving on in the recent past.

But Prince Albert should stay put in St. Louis.  Here's why:

1. The Machine has built up a lot of good will in St. Louis, where he's the most popular everyday player since Stan "The Man" Musial.  He took over the reins from Mark McGwire, became the face of the franchise, and helped bring a pair of World Series titles to a hungry baseball fanbase.  He's done some special things for that town, and while I'm not saying Cardinal fans will start burning his jerseys and give him the LeBron James treatment, a heartbreaking departure (especially if he goes to the rival Cubs) after long, drawn out negotiations would leave a sour taste in the city's mouth.  We already saw how last winter's failed contract negotiations stained his otherwise perfect resume, and skipping town would make him just like every other heartless mercenary ballplayer who followed the money. In the free agent era, spending an entire career with one team is incredibly rare (off the top of my head I can't think of any active players besides Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Todd Helton who have played careers of at least 15 seasons for just one franchise), so staying in St. Louis would just make his historic career even more unique.

2. With a trophy case overflowing with MVPs, Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers and All-Star nods, Pujols' focus should be on winning more titles, and the 2011 champs have a great chance to repeat next year, assuming Adam Wainwright returns to health and Lance Berkman doesn't completely fall apart/stop exercising and report to spring training thirty pounds heavier.  The Brewers will be tough, even if they lose Fielder, and the Cubs could bounce back under Theo Epstein's guidance, but you have to give the Cards credit for surviving the loss of Wainwright and down years from Pujols, Chris Carpenter, and Matt Holliday.  David Freese and Allen Craig appear primed for breakout seasons in 2012, and if Edwin Jackson returns he can solidify the front three of Wainwright, Carp, and Jaime Garcia.  Not sure how the team will adapt to a new skipper now that Tony LaRussa retired, but at least the guys in the bullpen can stop pulling their hair out.  St. Louis has reached the postseason in seven of the past eleven seasons and won more games in October than any other team over that span, and as we see every year once you get in anything can happen.  Pujols should return to help defend the crown.

3. It's the right thing to do.  I know it sounds corny, but he's already made over $100 million from player salaries alone, and the Cardinals have surrounded him with talent.  What more could you ask for from a midmarket team playing in the Heart of America? Based on their payroll, it's just unreasonable for him to expect A-Rod money from them.  They're not the Yankees, but no one is and they shouldn't have to pay the price for that.

Steelers Edge Pats

Last Sunday in Pittsburgh the Steelers brought their trademark tough defense and handed New England, fully rested after a bye week, just its second loss of the season.

Tom Brady, the reigning league MVP who is making another solid case for himself thus far, had only suffered one career defeat against the Steel City's black and yellow before Sunday but found himself smothered and stifled all afternoon.  He notched a pair of touchdowns but was limited to a season-low 198 passing yards.  The Steeler D's constant pressure and excellent coverage of his receivers (Wes Welker and Deion Branch were non-factors) preventEd Brady from getting in a groove, and the offense stalled, especially since Pittsburgh's defensive line virtually eliminated New England's mediocre running game.  As a result, the high-powered Patriot offense was shut out in both the first and third quarters.

New England trailed the entire game but made a last-ditch comeback attempt by pulling to within six with 2:35 remaining after an Aaron Hernandez TD, but Pittsburgh foiled their drive with eight seconds left by sacking Brady and recovering the ball for a safety after Troy Polamalu batted it into the endzone.

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots defense was not sharp and allowed Big Ben Roethlisberger to throw for two TDs and almost twice as many yards as Terrific Tom.  Pass coverage has been a legitimate issue with this defense all season long, and Sunday's game was definitely a step in the wrong direction after their tremendous effort against the Cowboys during Week 6.

The Pats look to bounce back at home against Eli Manning and the Giants.

St. Louis Steals Series

On two different occasions during Game 6, the Cardinals were one strike away from losing the World Series.  Somehow, they managed to fight back and eventually win what many are calling one of the greatest baseball games ever played on a David Freese walk-off home run that sailed over the centerfield fence. 

But after a season chocked full of improbable comebacks and unbelievable endings from Robert Andino, Dan Johnson, Evan Longoria and others, the moral of the story was simple; never say never.  No one in his right mind picked the Cardinals to win this thing, especially when they didn't even have a snowball's chance in hell of making the playoffs less than two months ago, but here they are, champions of the world for the second time in six seasons.

It was nice to see some fireworks because outside of the Albert Pujols-led offensive outburst in Game 3.  This series, like most, had been ruled by pitching until the bats busted out again in Game 6 by clobbering a revolving door of 15 pitchers for 28 hits, 19 runs, and half a dozen long balls.  Every member of the Rangers starting lineup not named Colby Lewis notched at least one hit, and after going up 7-4 in the seventh inning Texas seemed to have its franchise's first World Series championship in the bag.  But despite holding a three run lead and needing only five outs (ring any bells, '03 Red Sox and Cubs?), Texas allowed St. Louis to knot the game after an Allen Craig solo shot in the eighth and a two-run triple by Freese (who was down 1-2) off Neftali Feliz, who was basically Mariano Rivera with his career postseason ERA sitting at a miniscule 0.87 before that fateful ninth inning. 

But then a hobbled Josh Hamilton morphed into Kirk Gibson and lofted a two-run big fly in the top of the tenth off Jason Motte, and just like that Texas was back in the driver's seat, poised to finish off their foes once and for all.  Unfortunately for the Rangers, Darren Oliver and Scott Feldman couldn't hold the lead and gave that pair of runs right back despite coming within one strike of extinguishing Lance Berkman.  Texas could muster nothing more than a Mike Napoli single against Jake Westbrook in the eleventh, and Freese sent everybody home with his game-ending home run to lead off the bottom of the inning.

And then the Rangers were dead, because teams that come so close in potential clinchers, only to let it slip through their fingers, always seem to lose the series.  Recently, the '86 Angels in the ALCS, '86 Red Sox in the World Series, '03 Cubs in the NLCS, and '04 Yankees in the ALCS all stumbled just before the finish line.  We can add the '11 Rangers to that list, because after plating a pair of runs off a tired Chris Carpenter in the first inning of the first World Series Game 7 since 2002, they looked lifeless.  Dead.  Defeated.  Matt Harrison labored against a lineup without Matt Holliday and was gone after four innings, although in fairness he only left his team with a one-run deficit.  But Carpenter seemed to gain strength as the game went on, scattering just three hits after the first and by the time he departed in the top of the seventh his Redbirds had their own three-run advantage.  The Cards would add one more in the bottom of the frame for good measure, but Texas only managed one baserunner over the final four innings as their offense vanished and their star-crossed season faded away. 

Motte closed the door with a 1-2-3 ninth, and with that the Cardinals capped off their Cinderella season with their franchise's eleventh World Series flag.  Freese followed up his NLCS MVP performance by taking home the Fall Classic MVP as well, becoming just the sixth player to win both awards in the same postseason.  It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the title will have on Pujols' impending free agency.  I think he'll stay in St. Louis (even though they can't afford the Alex Rodriguez kind of contract he is reportedly seeking) if only because many of the perennial winter big spenders--Boston, New York Yankees, Philly--already have first base locked up, but if we've learned one lesson from the 2011 baseball season, it's that anything is possible.

Just ask the St. Louis Cardinals.

Rangers Rally Again, One Win Away

Mike Napoli comes through for Texas

Game 5 of the World Series served as a microcosm for the series itself; another low-scoring, tense affair in which the Cardinals jumped out to an early lead, only to watch the Rangers come back to tie (and ultimately win) the game.

St. Louis scored both its runs on back-to-back RBI singles by Yadier Molina and Skip Schumaker in the top of the second, but that was all the Redbirds were going to get off a shaky (nine baserunners allowed in just five and a third innings) but effective C.J. Wilson.  Texas got one back with a Mitch Moreland solo homer in the third, but Chris Carpenter was doing his best to mute the Ranger bats and held a narrow 2-1 lead going into the bottom half of the sixth.  That's when the 2005 NL Cy Young winner stumbled, though; after getting two quick outs he allowed an Adrian Beltre game-tying blast and back to back base knocs by Nelson Cruz and David Murphy to put runners on the corners, but he extinguished his own fire and made it through the next inning before departing with the score (and the series) still tied at two.

So after fighting their way back into the game and the series, Texas kept its momentum rolling in the eighth inning.  Despite Tony LaRussa's best efforts (incredibly, he ordered two intentional walks and used five pitchers to get those three outs, all of which were swinging K's), potential World Series MVP Mike Napoli delivered a tie-breaking two-run double that plated Cruz and Michael Young. 

Once again, the top of the ninth featured Neftali Feliz facing Albert Pujols in a bit of a jam (this time he had plunked Allen Craig to bring The Machine up representing the tying run), and once again the young flamethrower got the best of the future Hall-of-Famer.  This time he ran the count full against Phat Albert (whose timing might have been off after receiving three intentional walks in Game 5) before getting two outs with one pitch via the strike-him-out-throw-him-out.  Then, after walking Matt Holliday to bring up Lance Berkman as the tying run, managed to whiff the NL Comeback Player of the Year and secure his sixth save of the postseason.

The Ranger bullpen, fully rested after Derek Holland's near shutout in Game 4, made things interesting by allowing eight Cardinal baserunners over the final three and two-thirds innings but somehow stranded them all, as St. Louis ultimately left a dozen men on the basepaths.  They will certainly need more success with RISP in Game 6 if they want to survive another game in this series, which shifts back to Missouri. Colby Lewis and Jaime Garcia will square off tomorrow night, the former trying to finish the job while the latter fights to keep his team's Cinderella season alive.  I like the Rangers' chances of finishing off the Cards, but at the same time want the Redbirds to prevail and force a dramatic Game 7, something the World Series hasn't seen since the Giants/Angels Barry Bonds/John Lackey matchup in 2002.

But as much as I'd like that to happen, I foresee Texas winning its first Fall Classic in franchise history tomorrow evening.