McCutchen MVP No More

With McCutchen and Tulowitzki sidelined, the NL MVP is Puig's for the taking

For most of the year it looked like Troy Tulowitzki was going to walk away with NL MVP honors on the strength of his terrific hitting and superlative defense at shortstop. Then he got hurt, as he always does, and his annual trip to the DL has cost him almost three weeks and counting. The injury, combined with his team's last place standing, knocks him off the top of the MVP pyramid. Barring a repeat of his September 2010 performance (15 homers, 40 RBI) he ain't winning.

The next best candidate appeared to be last year's MVP, Andrew McCutchen, but now it seems safe to say that he won’t be the MVP again in 2014. With a fractured rib shelving him for 3-4 weeks and possibly into September, McCutchen’s hopes of repeating were effectively dashed. So with the door wide open, who’s next in line?

Clayton Kershaw’s now the odds-on favorite, and with the kind of season he's having there's a pretty good chance he pulls a Justin Verlander by copping both the Cy Young and MVP awards. (Quick aside, if those ill-fated 2011 Red Sox roll through September the way they did the rest of that season, Jacoby Ellsbury probably wins that MVP. If Boston had won 100 games while playing in baseball’s toughest division, like they were on pace to do, there's no way the MVP goes to a pitcher whose team could have won its division with an 81-81 record. And if Verlander wins 19 games instead of 24, it's not even a discussion).

But Kershaw's missed more than month and that has to be a big strike against him. Obviously if he continues to dominate down the stretch he’ll have a great case, one worth overlooking the lost time. That said, voters have always been more inclined to favor position players rather than pitchers, who already have a hard enough time as it is winning the MVP when they’re healthy. You might recall that before Verlander, a starting pitcher hadn't been named MVP since Roger Clemens in 1986. Position players can afford to miss time and still earn the hardware (see Mickey Mantle in 1962 or Josh Hamilton in 2010), but pitchers, because they pitch so infrequently, aren't granted that same latitude. I can’t remember the last time a starting pitcher missed a good chunk of time and went on to win the MVP, which leads me to believe Kershaw will have a difficult time pulling it off. But if he goes off an another scoreless innings streak, all bets are off.

I also think that in today’s offense-challenged climate, a big bat is more valuable that a good arm. It’s elite hitting, not starting pitching, that’s in short supply, so a guy who can hit .300 with good power and gets on base is especially valuable. I think if you take away Kershaw and replace him with an average pitcher, then Zack Greinke’s the ace (of a staff with Hyun-jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, and Dan Haren) and the Dodgers are still okay.  Maybe they don't win the division, but they're still a playoff team. Remove Yasiel Puig from LA's lineup, however, and I’m not convinced they score enough runs to make their pitching stand up, not with injuries to Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez and poor seasons from A.J. Ellis, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp (who's only been good recently).

So this is a long-winder, roundabout way of saying that the best remaining MVP candidate is Puig, who’s having a Mike Trout-lite season, so to speak. His .316/.400/.540 batting line is huge, especially for someone who plays half his games in Dodger Stadium (which is reflected by his 165 OPS+). With 4.0 bWAR, Puig has been his team's best position player by far, propping up a star-studded lineup that's under-performed its talent level. And while he doesn't lead the league in anything, he's in the top 10 for almost everything and should only climb higher with Tulo and 'Cutch on the mend.

Puig would boost his chances significantly by making up the distance between him and those two. Time is on his side and ripe for him to raise his stock. But he must keep hitting. He needs to rediscover the power stroke that has all but abandoned him since late May (two homers and 16 RBI in his last 56 games). He has to finish strong.

Because if he doesn't, then it's going to be that much easier to choose Kershaw.

Tulowitzki Terrorizing NL Pitching

Tulo has Colorado off to a rip-roaring start (KFFL)

I think people are finally catching on to just how good Troy Tulowitzki can be.

The Rockies are off to an amazing start--one game out of first in the NL West--and their star shortstop's big first month is a big reason why. After last night's 3-for-4 performance, Tulo's hitting an outrageous .421/.522/.794, easily the best batting line in baseball at the moment. He also has 11 doubles and nine home runs, leads the sport in total bases and has scored more runs than anyone in baseball. And April's National League Player of the Month is getting hotter, with seven multi-hit performances over his late eight games.

Barely a month into the season, he's already provided Colorado with close to four wins above replacement level. Tulowitzki's a great player--a three-time All-Star, two-time Gold Glove recipient and twice a top-five finisher in the MVP race--but he's never been this hot before (not even in September 2010, when he hit 14 home runs in a 15 game stretch and was named NL Player of the Month).

Now in his ninth season, Tulo has long been one of the more underrated talents in baseball. I have a lot of theories why for why that is:

• He plays in Colorado, which is not on a coast and doesn't have a ton of people and lacks a proud baseball tradition. The Rockies are an expansion era team that's barely been around for 20 years and has never won a World Series game. They don't have the rich tradition or wide fan base that the Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, and Cubs do.
• Colorado simply hasn't been very good: before this year he had been on five losing teams in eight years, and one of the winning seasons produced only 83 victories. Tulo hasn't gotten much postseason exposure, playing in just 15 total playoff games. Last year the Red Sox played 16 postseason games. Tulo isn't a household name because he's not an October fixture like David Ortiz or Derek Jeter.
• He plays half his game in Coors Field, a hitter's paradise, and so he gets dinged for that like every other Rockie who puts up big numbers. He's hit exceptionally well there over the course of his career and this year in particular, batting an absurd .608/.677/.1.098 in 15 home games so far.
• Tulo isn't very flashy. Before this year he had never lead the league in any meaningful offenive cateogry. Offensively he's a .300-25-90 guy, which is obviously very good but won't win any batting titles or home run crowns. He plays good defense but doesn't dazzle the way Ozzie Smith did or Andrelton Simmons does. He's graceful and does everything well, a style that doesn't net much attention for whatever reason (see Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, Craig Biggio, etc.)

Still, it's kind of surprising that Tulo hasn't become one of the faces of baseball. I mean, a Gold Glove shortstop who's a career .298 hitter and averages 29 home runs and 104 RBI per 162 games ought to be a superstar, right?

Problem is, Tulowitzki has never played 162 games in a season. He's topped 150 twice, but both times were in the previous decade. From 2010 to 2013, he averaged just 110 games per season. His injury history on his Baseball Prospectus player page is scary long. He's been hurt pretty much everywhere at some point. I couldn't help but think of that old picture of Mickey Mantle with the arrows pointing to all his injuries.

I'm sure you could do something similar with Tulo, who's developed a reputation as one of those supremely talented guys who just cant stay on the field, similar to Larry Walker, Josh Hamilton, Barry Larkin and Jose Reyes. He missed 61 games in 2008, 40 in 2010, 19 the year after that, 115 in 2012, and 36 last year. That's the equivalent of about two full seasons, just in the past six years. And yet he's still managed five seasons with at least five bWAR, including four with more than six. When he's healthy, he's one of the best players in the game.

This year, health hasn't been an issue for the 29 year-old. He's played in 32 of Colorado's 35 games and been otherworldly, the driving force behind the National League's best offense. Plenty of Rockies are hitting well at the moment--Nolan Arenado and Justin Morneau and Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer before he got hurt--but none of them can hold a candle to Tulo, who's reminding everyone that he's not just the best shortstop in baseball, but one of its best players period.

April Awards

May is here, which means the first month of baseball is in the books. Thus, it's time to hand out some awards.

American League
Player of the Month-Jose Bautista
Joey Bats is back. The slugging rightfielder drew 30 walks last month, most in baseball, to fuel his AL-best .467 OBP and 1.065 OPS. He also went yard eight times, tying Jose Abreu and Justin Upton for the best AB/HR ratio in the sport, scored 24 runs, and reached base more times than any player in baseball.

Pitcher of the Month-Masahiro Tanaka
The highly touted Japanese rookie has been even better than anticipated for the Yankees, asserting himself as the ace of New York's staff. His 2.27 ERA, 2.96 FIP and 0.93 WHIP are all superb, as is his 11.6 K/9 rate and 7.67 K/BB ratio. He's pitched at least seven innings in four of his five starts (all of which have produced a Game Score better than 60) and recorded double digit strikeouts three times. The Yankees have to be satisfied with the early returns on their seven-year, $155 million investment.

Rookie of the Month-Jose Abreu
What a month it was for Abreu, who surpassed Albert Pujols' rookie records for home runs and RBI in the month of April, finishing with 10 and 32, respectively--most in the majors. The Cuban slugger also leads the sport in total bases, AB/HR ratio, and extra base hits, plus has the best slugging percentage in the American League.

Team of the Month-Oakland A's
Led by its dominant pitching staff and potent offense, Oakland rolled to an 18-10 record in April behind the best run-differential in the sport, putting them three wins ahead of every other American League team. Strong starts from Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Chavez have picked up the slack for A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker (lost for the season), helping Oakland maintain the league's lowest ERA. The lineup, which leads all of baseball in walks and has the second-highest OBP, has been boosted by Josh Donaldson, Jed Lowrie, Coco Crisp, Yoenis Cespedes, and Brandon Moss. The two-time defending AL West champs once again find themselves at the top of the standings and have put themselves in good position to three-peat.

National League
Player of the Month-Troy Tulowitzki
Tulo batted a scorching hot .364/.477/.727 in April to finish the month with the sport's highest OBP, SLG, OPS, and second best batting average (behind teammate Charlie Blackmon). The NL runs scored leader is also tops in bWAR, OPS+. and runs created. He's a big reason why the Rockies are tied with LA for second place in the NL West right now.

Pitcher of the Month-Johnny Cueto
Cincinnati's ace leads both leagues in ERA (with a microscopic 1.15) and innings pitched, as well as complete games, ERA+, and H/9. He also has a 0.77 WHIP, 3.57 K/BB ratio and is striking out more than a batter per inning. He's allowed just six runs in his six starts, all of which have lasted at least seven innings, and his average Game Score thus far is a 76.

Rookie of the Month-Chris Owings
Not a whole lot of NL Rookies contributing right now. Arizona's 22 year-old shortstop is batting a solid .313/.367/.398 with five doubles and four stolen bases. Along with Paul Goldschmidt and Mark Trumbo, he's one of the few bright spots on a disastrous Diamondbacks team.

Team of the Month-Milwaukee Brewers
The Brew Crew boast the best record in baseball at 20-8, largely thanks to their lights-out starting pitching and stellar bullpen work. Four of their five starting pitchers have ERAs below 2.90 (newcomer Matt Garza, at an even 5.00, is lagging behind) with Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada and Wily Peralta all pitching like aces. The bullpen's been even better; backed by a perfect Francisco Rodriguez (0.00 ERA in 16 appearances) and near-perfect Tyler Thornburg (0.61 in 14), Milwaukee's 'pen has a 2.45 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 4.12 K/BB ratio. Offensively, the Brewers are getting production from multiple sources. Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez are off to MVP-caliber starts, and they're getting plenty of help from Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Mark Reynolds.