My NL All-Star Picks

Harper has the potential to dominate the ASG (Sporting News)

Voting ends in under 10 hours! Here are my National League picks (more tough ones than in the American League, I think), with all stats current through yesterday:

C Buster Posey
It's Posey and everyone else in the Senior Circuit this year, as he's been one of the few bright spots on a putrid Giants team with his .344/.422/.529 line (155 wRC+). His 10 homers are tied with Yasmany Grandal for most at the position in the NL, and his 3.0 fWAR lead the field comfortably (nobody else has two).

1B Paul Goldschmidt
The best offensive player in baseball deserves the nod here. Eric Thames and Ryan Zimmerman have cooled down considerably from their hot starts, while Freddie Freeman still hasn't returned from the wrist injury he sustained in May. Joey Votto is having a great first half for once, but he's essentially been a lesser version of Goldschmidt.

2B Daniel Murphy
Josh Harrison's neck-and-neck in WAR but Murphy blows him away on offense, as he's essentially replicating the MVP-caliber year he had at the plate last season with a .339/.391/.578 line and 14 homers.

3B Justin Turner
Arenado's locked into a ridiculously close race with Kris Bryant, but the real battle should be between Anthony Rendon and Justin Turner, who are presently tied atop the NL WAR leaderboard with 3.3 apiece. Rendon's had a sneaky-good year for Washington despite being overshadowed by Bryce Harper, Max Scherzer, and others, while Turner is batting an insane .379/.466/.535 thanks to his .414 BABIP. Turner's clearly been the best hitter at the position this year in either league, putting up numbers that shouldn't be possible in Coors Field, let alone the pitcher's paradise of Dodger Stadium. It's telling that Turner leads NL third basemen in FanGraphs offensive value despite playing just 55 games thus far, which is why I'm giving him my vote (it also helps that he's been a plus on defense).

SS Corey Seager
This is a two-horse race between Zack Cozart and Corey Seager, who are almost indistinguishable in terms of value. Cozart has been the best-hitting shortstop in the NL this year, but Seager gets on base at the exact same rate and has played 15 more games. Defensively they're both excellent, and offensively it's very close when you account for their home parks, as Seager's is brutal on hitters whereas Cozart's is quite generous. When it's too close to call for All-Star candidates I defer to the one with more star power (it is an All-STAR game, after all), which in this case is Seager.

OF Bryce Harper
When your life's mission is making baseball fun again and you have hair like this, you kind of have to be in the All-Star Game.

OF Marcell Ozuna
Having a very underrated season, batting .315/.378/.565 with 20 homers already. If you asked fans to pick a Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton would win in a landslide, but Ozuna has the same number of homers and leads his teammate in most offensive categories, hence why his fWAR total is nearly twice as great (2.7 - 1.5). Ozuna got off to a huge start last year before fading in the second half, so it remains to be seen if he can sustain this level of play for an entire season.

OF Cody Bellinger
It's close between him and Charlie Blackmon, but Bellinger has the same number of fWAR (2.4) in 19 fewer games and has been obliterating baseballs lately. He's much more fun to watch than Blackmon and is a far better hitter after taking their home parks into account. He's also on pace for a bajillion home runs (roughly) and needs to be on the field so someone can replicate this picture with him and Aaron Judge.

If fans got to pick a starter I'd vote Max Scherzer, who's surpassed Clayton Kershaw as the best pitcher in baseball this year (for now).

The Real NL All-Stars

That blur is Dee Gordon, perhaps the fastest man in baseball (Business Insider)

C Buster Posey
Posey's been the National League's best-hitting catcher (only Oakland's Stephen Vogt has been better with the stick) and most valuable backstop in baseball per fWAR. That makes him an obvious choice for his third All-Star selection.

1B Paul Goldschmidt
If not for Bryce Harper's incredible season, we'd be showering all that praise unto Goldschmidt, whose .350 batting average, .466 OBP, and 62 walks are tops in the major leagues. He's also blasted 20 home runs, stolen 15 bases, and racked up 5.4 bWAR--a rounding error below Harper's 5.5.

2B Dee Gordon
I know in my heart of hearts that Joe Panik is the better ballplayer and will probably end up with better numbers, but there's no denying Gordon's first-half accomplishments. He's having the kind of year Jose Altuve did last year, what with his .350 batting average (just a tick below Goldschmidt), 26 steals, and ML-leading 114 hits. His .411 BABiP is unsustainable, he never walks (10 free passes) and just hit his first home run of the year the other day (an inside-the-park job), but I'd love to see his game-changing speed on display at this year's game.

3B Todd Frazier
Really close call between Frazier and Nolan Arenado, who's been hitting out of his mind lately, but Frazier's already superior numbers are even more impressive when you remember Arenado gets to play half his games at Coors Field. Arenado's defense has been better, but Frazier's been the game's best-hitter at the hot corner. What's more, his 48 extra base hits and 186 total bases are tops in the majors.

SS Brandon Crawford
Troy Tulowitzki and Jhonny Peralta are bigger names, but Crawford's been the best shortstop in baseball this year by a considerable margin. His 11 home runs (a career-high), 47 RBI, and .207 ISO top the position, and he's a strong defender to boot. The Giants have arguably the best double-play combo in baseball between him and Panik.

Harper's the very definition of an All-Star (ABC News)

OF Bryce Harper
Harper's been the best player in baseball this year. There's really nothing more to say.

OF Giancarlo Stanton
It's a shame Stanton got injured, because he was on pace for close to 60 home runs and 150 RBI. Nobody's hit 60 homers since 2001, when Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa both did it, and 150 RBI hasn't been done since Alex Rodriguez during his 2007 MVP campaign. Stanton's the only player today capable of such historic power numbers, so let's wish him a speedy recovery.

OF Joc Pederson
I'm already growing tired of the Kris Bryant-Pederson rookie race coverage, but I can't wait to see what Pederson will do in his first All-Star Game. He's having a Jose Bautista-type season with a .240-ish average but stellar power and on-base numbers, and he also happens to be a pretty good center fielder. The 23 year-old is the NL version of Mike Trout.

As for who the starting pitcher should be, well, that's easy. Ladies and gentlemen: Max Scherzer.

Wright Following in Rolen's Footsteps

Wright has missed significant time in 5 of the past 6 seasons (CBS New York)

With David Wright sidelined by yet another injury, this time out indefinitely with spinal stenosis, I couldn't help but think of another talented two-way third baseman who became a walking medical bill in his 30s.

For almost a decade before Wright burst on the scene with the Mets, Scott Rolen was the National League's best at the hot corner. In fact, from 1997-2004, Rolen ranked third among MLB position players in fWAR behind only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. I was surprised to see that during this time, Rolen was a more valuable player than Chipper Jones, who many feel is Hall of Fame-bound.

Rolen appeared headed for Cooperstown as well following his monster 2004 campaign, in which he was worth 9.1 bWAR and posted a 1.007 OPS. Like Nomar Garciaparra and countless others throughout baseball history, however, he was unable to sustain his early success as injuries sapped his performance during his 30s. Multiple shoulder surgeries wrecked his career, preventing him from completing what was shaping up to be a Hall of Fame resume.

Wright, who also had a Cooperstown-caliber start to his career, has closely mirrored Rolen's trajectory. Both debuted at 21, secured everyday roles at 22, and immediately emerged as elite players. After remaining mostly healthy and productive throughout their 20s, they began experiencing injury problems and deteriorating performance in their early 30s.

Through age 32 (Wright's current age) their numbers are remarkably similar:

Rolen 1,505 G 954 R 380 2B 261 HR 1,012 RBI 104 SB .283/.372/.507 (126 OPS+) 55 bWAR
Wright 1,516 G 910 R 375 2B 231 HR 943 RBI 193 SB .298/.377/.494 (134 OPS+) 49.9 bWAR

Wright's future is unknown in the wake of his latest malady, but appears gloomy based on how the second half of Rolen's career played out. Constantly beset by injuries, Rolen averaged just 11 home runs and 57 RBI per season during his 30s. The Mets can only hope that Wright, who is owed $87 million over the next five seasons, avoids a similar decline.

NL April All-Stars

Gonzalez leads a crowded field at first base (Huffington Post)

All stats through May 1 unless otherwise noted. Scroll down to see my AL team.

C Derek Norris
Gave a lot of thought to A.J. Pierzynski, who's currently hitting above .400, but went with Norris because he's played almost twice as many games and has still been really good. With just two walks to his named this year, Norris hasn't shown any of the patience that helped him to a .361 OBP last season, but he's made up for that by cracking 10 doubles and batting .329.

1B Adrian Gonzalez
As great as Paul Goldschmidt's been, Gonzalez has been a little better. His eight homers and 65 total bases lead the National League, while his .765 slugging, 1.189 OPS, and 228 OPS+ are tops in the majors. Simply put, those are videogame numbers. Sincere apologies to Joey Votto and Anthony Rizzo as well.

2B Dee Gordon
The Marlins' new second baseman and leadoff man is playing out of his mind right now, with a major league-leading 41 hits and .423 batting average. Incredible, none of those hits have cleared the fences and only six have gone for extra bases, so Gordon's currently pulling the rare trick of batting above .400 but slugging below .500. He does have nine steals, but those have been counterbalanced by his six caught-stealing attempts.

3B Matt Carpenter
Carpenter continues to excel in his role as the catalyst of the Cardinals offense, batting an obscene .378/.446/.656 with 21 runs scored and an ML-leading 14 doubles. His sizzling start his him on track for a similar season to the MVP-caliber one he enjoyed two years ago.

SS Troy Tulowitzki
Hasn't been able to replicate his ferocious start from a year ago but still had a great April, hitting .308/.321/.526 with 11 doubles. Tulo has only two home runs so far, but the power will come so long as he's healthy.

OF Giancarlo Stanton
Stanton's picked up right where he left off last year, slashing .282/.378/.588 with six bombs and a league-leading 22 RBI.

OF Bryce Harper
Harper's light-tower power has already produced five home runs, but it's his new and improved batting eye that's drawn attention. His .433 OBP has been fueled by 23 walks--most in the bigs. He's also stayed healthy, appearing in all two dozen of Washington's games. If he can stay off the disabled list, this could be the year he finally breaks out and becomes the superstar he was pre-ordained to be.

OF Matt Kemp
Petco hasn't put a dent in Kemp's numbers, as the 30 year-old is batting a healthy .330/.359/.474 with 10 extra base hits, 14 RBI, and four steals in four attempts. Only one home run so far, but I wouldn't worry given that he's topped 20 in five of the past six seasons.

Harvey has regained his form since returning from TJ surgery (CBS New York)

SP Matt Harvey
Harvey has returned from Tommy John surgery just as dominant as he was before the procedure, going 5-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. His 8.5 K/BB ratio is unreal.

SP Johnny Cueto
Last year's NL Cy Young runner-up and free agent-to-be is setting himself up for a giant payday. The Reds ace is leading the majors in innings and WHIP with more than a strikeout per inning, not to mention a 1.95 ERA.

SP Gerrit Cole
Cole appears to have taken the leap to acehood based on his 1.76 ERA and 10.3 K/9 mark through his first five starts.

SP Zack Greinke
Greinke's become something of an afterthought while sharing the same rotation with Clayton Kershaw, but he's having a fabulous season in his own right with a 1.93 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

SP Max Scherzer
1-3 record aside, my preseason NL Cy Young pick is making me look good with his league-leading 1.26 ERA and 1.93 FIP.

RP Tony Watson
In line to become the Pirates closer if and when Mark Melancon stumbles, Watson's been lights-out with a 2.51 ERA and 0.77 WHIP out of Pittsburgh's 'pen.

CL Aroldis Chapman
Cincinnati's flamethrowing closer has yet to allow an earned run in 11 appearances and currently sports a 16 K/9 rate. Need I say more?

Future Hall of Famers (NL)

Rollins has a better Hall of Fame case then you realize (LATimes)

Same deal as the last post--no absurdly young players like Jose Fernandez, Wil Myers, and Matt Harvey.

NL East
Atlanta Braves
Nobody on the Braves at present seems to have a great shot at induction. Nick Markakis is already more than halfway to 3,000 hits at the end of his age-30 season, but even if he gets there he'll probably be remembered more as a Johnny Damon complementary type of player.

Miami Marlins
Giancarlo Stanton
If that dude stays healthy (no more Tony Conigliaro-esque scares), he's going to end up in Cooperstown. It's a given.

New York Mets
David Wright
Peaked early but has had enough success since to keep him on pace to finish among the game's all-time great third basemen. The seven-time All-Star just turned 32 and is already at 50 bWAR, which means he only needs to play like an average regular over the rest of his contract to get into Hall-territory.

Philadelphia Phillies
Jonathan Papelbon
One of the best closers ever, hands-down. Has been phenomenal for a decade now and remained effective into his mid-30s. Might not be Mariano Rivera, but who is?

Chase Utley
Utley's counting numbers won't blow anybody away, but his towering five-year peak and subsequent stretch of solid seasons should be enough to get him in. The 36 year-old is already worthy with 61.5 bWAR; now he just needs to pad his career totals. Would be great if he could get to 2,000 hits--he's 431 away.

Washington Nationals
Bryce Harper
Like Mike Trout, I'm willing to concede him a spot in Cooperstown based on how ridiculously good he was at such a young age.

NL Central
Chicago Cubs
The Cubbies are loaded with young talent and probably have a good number of Hall of Famers on their team or about to arrive, but it's just too early to tell.

Cincinnati Reds
Joey Votto
Perhaps the best hitter in baseball when healthy, the 2010 NL MVP is under contract for nine more years at least, which will give him plenty of time to rack up impressive career numbers. Unless his career dissolves Don Mattingly-style, he'll get to Cooperstown.

Milwaukee Brewers
Their best candidate has been caught using PEDs twice, so yeah. Francisco Rodriguez, last seen with the Brew Crew, has compiled 348 saves at the end of his age 32 season, so 400 is a very good possibility and 500 is attainable.

Pittsburgh Pirates
'Cutch could very well make it in. See below.

St. Louis Cardinals
Matt Holliday
Has been an outstanding hitter for more than a decade and is coming up on 2,000 hits and 300 homers.  Proved he could still be a great hitter away from Coors Field and has continued to put up big numbers as pitching has overtaken the game.

NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks
Sorry, D-backs. Grit only gets you so far, and usually not to Cooperstown.

Colorado Rockies
Troy Tulowitzki
His pre-30 career arc is eerily similar to Nomar Garciaparra's, which is to say he'd have to be chronically injured throughout the rest of his playing days to screw up his Cooperstown chances.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw
If Kershaw retired tomorrow we'd remember him the same way we remember Sandy Koufax. Reached 40 bWAR after his age 26 season, so even if he craps out at 30 he'll have probably accomplished enough by then.

Jimmy Rollins
J-Roll is going to have a very interesting case, especially since his most similar statistical oomp is Barry Larkin (and his second-best is another worthy Hall of Famer--Alan Trammell). A great defensive shortstop with power and speed, he's going to wind up with around 1,500 runs, 2,500 hits, 500 doubles, 500 steals, 250 home runs, and 1,000 RBI. The sheer volume of his counting numbers are going to be hard to overlook, even if his peak wasn't that great (2007 NL MVP notwithstanding).

San Diego Padres
Even with all their recent trades and added star power, I still don't consider any Padres to be probable Hall of Famers. Maybe Matt Kemp...

San Francisco Giants
Tim Hudson
Huddy has had quite the career, which has seen him win 214 games (most among active pitchers) while piling up more than 3,000 quality innings (122 ERA+).  The end if probably near as he'll turn 40 next year,  but he's remained effective into his late 30s and could have one more solid year left in him. Pitching for San Francisco won't hurt.

It's possible
Aramis Ramirez
One of the better-hitting third basemen to ever play the game, but probably needs a few more productive seasons so he can hit some major milestones such as 400 home runs, 500 doubles, 2,500 hits, and 1,500 RBI. If he hits those benchmarks, it's going to be hard to leave him out.

Adrian Gonzalez
Having a Mark Teixeira-type career, but will need several more big seasons to be a legit candidate.

Carl Crawford
Was so good during his 20s that he'll have a good chance if he can just last into his late 30s (kinda like Tim Raines or Kenny Lofton).

Ryan Braun
See Crawford, Carl.

Jon Lester and Cole Hamels
Both need to keep it up through the end of the decade at least, but if they do their combination of postseason and regular season success should carry them to Cooperstown.

Justin Upton and Andrew McCutcehn
Have accomplished so much already, but their only midway through their primes and still have a lot of baseball left.

Starlin Castro, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Paul Goldschmidt, Jay Bruce, Madison Bumgarner
All are off to amazing starts--check back in five years.

Kluber Robs King Felix

Hernandez deserved to win his second Cy Young, but didn't (RotoScout)

The races for the American League and National League Cy Young couldn't have been any different.

In the National League, Clayton Kershaw was the heavy favorite and won easily, securing his third Cy Young in four years (and, let's be honest, he deserved the 2012 award over R.A. Dickey too). It was Kershaw and everyone else, meaning a vote for Johnny Cueto or Adam Wainwright, while defensible, was clearly misguided.

The American League's top two candidates were virtually inseparable. They both had dominant seasons and compelling reasons, but in the end it came down to splitting hairs. In what was destined to be a photo finish, Corey Kluber beat out Felix Hernandez. Kluber nabbed 17 of the 30 first place votes and 169 points, edging out the 13 and 159 compiled by King Felix. Chris Sale finished a distant third with 78 points.

Looking at Hernandez's stats, it's hard to see how he didn't win. He had the league's lowest ERA, WHIP, and hit rate while placing second in pitcher bWAR (to Kluber), innings pitched (to David Price), ERA+ (to Sale), and FIP (to Kluber). He also led in most of the advanced stats like adjusted pitching runs and wins, base-out runs and wins saved, and situational wins saved. Opponents batted just .200/.243/.303 (.244 wOBA) against him, and his average GameScore was 65. For most of the summer, he was the clear favorite as he strung together an MLB-record 16 straight starts with at least seven innings pitched and two earned runs allowed or fewer.

But he slipped just a bit over the final six weeks (2.75 ERA), opening the door for Kluber, who came on like a freight train down the stretch. His first half was hardly Cy-worthy (3.01 ERA), but after the All-Star Break he had a 1.73 ERA over his final 104 innings to lower his final ERA to 2.44. He also struck out 39 batters over his final three starts to give him a whopping 269 K's on the season, second only to Price and 21 more than Hernandez. He also finished in a three-way tie for the league lead in wins with 18 (same as Max Scherzer and Jered Weaver) while pacing the circuit in pitching bWAR (7.4), and FIP (2.35).

While Kluber had an outstanding season, I believe the hardware belongs to King Felix. For one, Kluber wasn't even Cy Young-caliber for most of the first half, while Hernandez was Cy Young worthy from start to finish. Kluber had that great finishing kick, but I think Hernandez deserves credit for being more consistent. Additionally Kluber's average GameScore (63) was a hair lower than Hernandez's, revealing that he was slightly less dominant on a per-start basis. Batters also had more success against him, hitting .233/.279/.345 (.277 wOBA) when he was on the bump--a 78 point difference between him and Hernandez. That's pretty sizable, especially considering Kluber faced slightly weaker hitting talent.

It's true that Hernandez did pitch in a more favorable environment with a better defense behind him, but the park is accounted for in Adjusted ERA+, which has him considerably ahead of Kluber 170 to 152. Furthermore, Safeco doesn't help Hernandez as much as other pitchers because of his ability to induce ground balls. As for the defense, well, it's not like Hernandez was pitching to contact. He still struck out 248 batter's, for heaven's sake! Tony Blengino over at FanGraphs took all these factors into account and calculated Hernandez's true ERA to be 2.29, a touch better than Kluber's 2.45.

All in all, I like Hernandez's case a little better than Kluber's. I'm not sure what swayed the voters over to the latter's side: I hope it was the FIP and gaudy strikeout rates but I suspect the monster second half and shinier win total played a role as well. The voters had to make a really tough choice, so I'm not surprised they got it wrong (look no further than their inability to elect Mike Trout MVP before this year). Kluber was great, but Hernandez was a tad better and deserved to win by the slimmest of margins.

Mesoraco's Monster Breakout

Though inconsistent, Mesoraco has enjoyed a tremendous season (RantSports)

The Reds were swept in Baltimore yesterday, falling to the Orioles 9-7 to wrap up an ugly road trip where Cincinnati lost all but one of its six games. It's been an ugly summer for the Reds, who were very much in contention through the All-Star Break but have sputtered since, losing 30 of 45 in the second half as injuries to Joey Votto, Mat Latos and Homer Bailey took their toll.

One positive takeaway from this season, however, is that Cincinnati appears to have developed an All-Star caliber catcher. 26 year-old Devin Mesoraco's been a revelation behind the plate, emerging as one of the game's most dangerous offensive catchers in his fourth big league season. In the wake of yesterday's 4-for-4 performance, he's now batting an eye-popping .286/.365/.542 (153 OPS+) on the year with 21 home runs--most among everyday catchers. His 69 RBI rank third behind Buster Posey and Miguel Montero, both of whom have significant advantages in playing time. In the National League only Giancarlo Stanton has a superior AB/HR ratio. If the Reds weren't so helpless out of the race, he'd make a pretty good MVP candidate.

It's not unusual to see catchers break out later than position players at other positions, but Mesoraco's transformation has been truly stunning. He was a nothing before this year, a career .225 hitter with 16 home runs and -0.5 bWAR to his name. Now he's one of the best hitters in baseball. Out of all this year's biggest breakthroughs (Charlie Blackmon, Corey Dickerson, Josh Harrison, Brock Holt), none of shined brighter than Mesoraco.

The only issue with Mesoraco (besides subpar baserunning, but good luck finding a catcher who runs well) is his incredible streakiness. All year long, it seems, has been alternating hot and cold streaks for the Reds' backstop, who began the year on fire. He was hitting .500/.541/.870 through May 18th, only to post a .521 OPS with 23 strikeouts over his next 21 games. That was followed by a torrid three-week stretch ending on the Fourth of July where he blasted six home runs and OPS'ed 1.287. He leveled off through the rest of July, then hit the skids in August, batting a measly .228/.340/.354 with just two home runs.

September should bring better results for Mesoraco, and by the looks of things yesterdat, it already has.

Stanton Slugging Way to MVP

Stanton's superstar-caliber season should result in his first MVP award (RantSports)

Four weeks ago I wrote that given injuries to Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen, Yasiel Puig had emerged as the new favorite for National League MVP because of his Mike Trout-esque production. But in light of Puig's recent offensive struggles (.185/.279/.217 with no home runs and four RBI since August 4th) his stock has fallen considerably.

During the same time Giancarlo Stanton's stock has risen substantially. With nine long balls, 27 RBI and a 1.078 OPS over the past four weeks, Stanton enjoyed one of his best stretches of the season during the dog days of August. And after slugging his 35th home run of the season last night, becoming the first player in either league to reach 100 RBI in the process, it's clear that if the season ended today Stanton would deserve to walk away with MVP honors.

He is, according to bWAR, the second-most valuable position player in the National League behind Jason Heyward (much of whose value derives from his defense) and third overall behind Clayton Kershaw and Heyward. FanGraphs rates him as the most valuable batter in the Senior Circuit, just a smidge above Jonathan Lucroy and tops among all major leaguers in WPA.

Of course, by most conventional metrics Stanton is clearly the best hitter in the National League. He ranks first in home runs and RBI, walks and OBP, total bases and SLG, OPS and OPS+, and a host of other categories like extra base hits, runs created, times on base, and adjusted batting runs. He's been incredibly durable, playing in all 137 of the Marlins' games thus far, a force in the middle of their lineup everyday.

But, contrary to what those who voted Miguel Cabrera over Trout the last two years believe, the MVP award should not simply go to the best hitter. It should go to the most valuable player which, in the case of a position player, includes defense and baserunning. Cabrera was clearly a liability in those two facets of the game, but Stanton is not. He plays a decent right field and runs the bases well for a big man, with 10 stolen bases in 11 attempts and three baserunning runs above average this year. He's not a well-rounded superstar like Trout or McCutchen, but he's not a one-dimensional slugger like Cabrera, either.

And to those who say an MVP must come from a winning team (and ignore the fact that one player has no control over how his teammates play or his front office constructs a roster), please take note of how much the Marlins have improved from last year. In 2013 with Stanton missing more than a quarter of the season, Miami lost 100 games and finished last in the NL East. This year, despite losing reigning Rookie of the Year and staff ace Jose Fernandez to Tommy John surgery in May, the Marlins have won almost as many games as they've lost and are third in their division. Few expected Miami to have anything close to a winning record, especially after losing an elite arm so early in the season.

But Stanton, to his credit, has carried the Marlins offense and helped keep the team within shouting distance of the second wild card. He's been integral to one of this season's most unlikely turnarounds, keeping Miami afloat long after it should have slipped beneath the waves. Stanton's made the Marlins relevant again. That might not be as sexy as leading a team to a division title, but after seeing how low they sunk last year it's still pretty darn impressive.

Coghlan's Comeback

Coghlan's been on base a lot lately (CSN Chicago)

Remember Chris Coghlan?

Until about a week ago, I'd completely forgotten the 2009 NL Rookie of the Year. After looking at his recent track record, it's not hard to see why.

In the four years between his rookie season and this one, he batted .242/.307/.352 with 12 home runs and 70 RBI in just over 1,000 plate appearances. Across 265 games he put up a 79 OPS+ and was worth -1.4 fWAR. Injuries played a big part in that, robbing him of almost the entire second half of his sophomore season (knee surgery), nearly 60 percent of his 2011  (inflammation in the same knee), and almost three months last year (lower back strain). In this regard he was like the National League equivalent of Grady Sizemore; an outfielder who'd shown tons of promise early in his career only to see his prime years ruined by injuries.

Still, the fact remains that when Coghlan was healthy enough to play during those years, he wasn't very good. So it came as no surprise that the Marlins, the only team Coghlan had ever known, non-tendered him last winter. It was time. Even bad teams like the Marlins can't afford to waste a roster space on a corner outfielder in his late 20s who can't hit, run, or field. With young Christian Yelich showing promise and ready to replace him, Miami had to cut Coghlan loose. No regrets and no hard feelings.

Closing in on 30, beaten down by injuries and five years removed his last (and only) good season, Coghlan looked like he was going to be remembered as one of those Rookies of the Year who fell off the map, a one-hit wonder whose best season just happened to come at the beginning of a career that, for whatever reason (injuries, failure to make adjustments, bad luck) never panned out. Added to the list of vaguely familiar names like Angel Berroa, Bobby Crosby, and Jason Jennings, recent Rookie of the Year recipients nobody remembers.

The rebuilding Cubs took a flier on him, giving him a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. He wasn't on the big league roster when camp broke and was optioned to Triple-A Iowa, where he got on base a good amount (.379 OBP) but failed to hit a home run in 24 games there. He was basically Daniel Nava.

So it was somewhat surprising when the Cubs called him up in early May. Initially Coghlan played sparingly, limited to pinch-hitting duty and the occasional start. He began receiving regular at-bats in June and became more comfortable at the plate as a result. His batting line rose steadily throughout the month, from .139/.184/.139 on the first to .204/.281/.330 by the end of June.

In July, with the Cubbies no longer in contention, Coghlan began to shine. He hit safely in 13 of 14 games before the All-Star Break, catching fire and becoming a mainstay in Chicago's lineup. His power, dormant for so long, emerged as well with eight doubles and three homers.
Coghlan continued raking after the break, notching hits in 14 of 17 games to open the second half and raising his batting line all the way up to .302/.382/.498 after a 3-for-3 effort on August 6th.

It's been far and away Coghlan's best prolonged stretch of hitting since he batted .321/.390/.460 as a 24 year-old rookie in 2009. Rick Renteria, the Cubs manager, has responded by batting him leadoff, using Coghlan's on-base skills to jumpstart a lineup that doesn't have much offense outside of Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo (much like how John Farrell's been batting Brock Holt leadoff to try to spark an otherwise lifeless Red Sox lineup). With Coghlan notching 13 multi-hit games and reaching base more than 46 percent of the time since the calendar flipped to July, scoring 23 times as a result, the move has paid off. He's setting the table and giving the guys behind him lots of opportunities to drive in runs, which is all anyone can really ask of a leadoff man.

Coghlan's unexpected comeback has been of the better stories in baseball lately, seeing as how he appeared to be out of a job not too long ago. A career-best walk rate and improved strikeout rate have fueled his success along with the highest HR/FB rate of his career and a more balanced batted ball distribution. His .337 BABiP is significantly better than average but not out of whack with his .320 career rate, though his .413 rate since the start of July screams small sample fluke. Accordingly, neither Steamer nor ZiPS expect the 29 year-old to keep hitting this way much longer. Both predict that his OPS to fall about 50 points between now and the end of the season, but neither one projects him to totally fall apart, either.

That's because for the first time in half a decade, Chris Coghlan's a legitimately good baseball player again.

Holliday Heating Up

After three tough months at the plate, Holliday finally looks locked in

You wouldn't know it by looking at the final numbers, but Matt Holliday got off to a painfully slow start last year. When play began on June 3rd he was hitting .244/.329/.415 with eight home runs through his first 51 games of the season. The early season slump, combined with his age (33) and coming on the heels of back-to-back seasons of declining OPS, led many to speculate that Holliday's best days were behind him.

Only the six-time All-Star wasn't done. Far from it, in fact. Holliday proceeded to snap out of his , of course, and was fine from that point forward. He hit .333/.423/.535 the rest of the way, ending up with a .300/.389/.490 batting line in addition to his 22 home runs and 94 RBI. Another typically excellent offensive campaign for the St. Louis Cardinal, who was one of just nine players last year to top 20 home runs, 90 RBI and a .300 batting average. Only three National Leaguers did it; Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, and Holliday. Note that Goldy and Freeman play first base, a less challenging defensive position than left field per Bill James's defensive spectrum.

This season appears to be following a similar script; sluggish start, strong finish. Only this time around, the funk was a little deeper, lasting  about a month longer. Through July 7th Holliday was hitting a disappointing .260/.367/.373 with only five home runs, showing none of the power that helped him swat at least 19 every year for the past nine. Once again, it seemed as though Holliday had seen better days.

And once again, he's done everything he can to dispel that notion. In the four weeks before last night's 0-for-3 against Boston, he batted .307/.381/.653 with seven home runs, going yard more times in those 21 games than he did in the previous 87. The power surge has coincided with an increased strikeout rate for Holliday, who whiffed 21 times over that stretch (one per game) as opposed to 54 times prior to that (.62 per game). Holliday may be consciously trying to sacrifice contact for power, but if that's the case it hasn't negatively affected his average. Or it could merely be that July has traditionally been his best home run month.

Whatever the reason, Holliday's swinging the bat well and it's had a positive impact on St. Louis, which went 12-9 during his hot streak. Currently one game behind the first-place Brewers in the NL Central, the Cards could certainly use a big finishing kick from Holliday like the one he provided last year. Though he leads the team in doubles and RBI and ranks tied for second with Matt Adams in home runs, his .792 OPS could stand to jump another 50 or 60 points between now and the end of the season, if not more. 

At least Mike Matheny needn't worry about his number three hitter. Holliday, who's done nothing but hit for the past decade-plus, is hitting now, so there's really no reason to doubt him. He's dug himself out of a big hole before, and here in 2014 he appears to be doing it again.

McCutchen MVP No More

With McCutchen and Tulowitzki sidelined, the NL MVP is Puig's for the taking

For most of the year it looked like Troy Tulowitzki was going to walk away with NL MVP honors on the strength of his terrific hitting and superlative defense at shortstop. Then he got hurt, as he always does, and his annual trip to the DL has cost him almost three weeks and counting. The injury, combined with his team's last place standing, knocks him off the top of the MVP pyramid. Barring a repeat of his September 2010 performance (15 homers, 40 RBI) he ain't winning.

The next best candidate appeared to be last year's MVP, Andrew McCutchen, but now it seems safe to say that he won’t be the MVP again in 2014. With a fractured rib shelving him for 3-4 weeks and possibly into September, McCutchen’s hopes of repeating were effectively dashed. So with the door wide open, who’s next in line?

Clayton Kershaw’s now the odds-on favorite, and with the kind of season he's having there's a pretty good chance he pulls a Justin Verlander by copping both the Cy Young and MVP awards. (Quick aside, if those ill-fated 2011 Red Sox roll through September the way they did the rest of that season, Jacoby Ellsbury probably wins that MVP. If Boston had won 100 games while playing in baseball’s toughest division, like they were on pace to do, there's no way the MVP goes to a pitcher whose team could have won its division with an 81-81 record. And if Verlander wins 19 games instead of 24, it's not even a discussion).

But Kershaw's missed more than month and that has to be a big strike against him. Obviously if he continues to dominate down the stretch he’ll have a great case, one worth overlooking the lost time. That said, voters have always been more inclined to favor position players rather than pitchers, who already have a hard enough time as it is winning the MVP when they’re healthy. You might recall that before Verlander, a starting pitcher hadn't been named MVP since Roger Clemens in 1986. Position players can afford to miss time and still earn the hardware (see Mickey Mantle in 1962 or Josh Hamilton in 2010), but pitchers, because they pitch so infrequently, aren't granted that same latitude. I can’t remember the last time a starting pitcher missed a good chunk of time and went on to win the MVP, which leads me to believe Kershaw will have a difficult time pulling it off. But if he goes off an another scoreless innings streak, all bets are off.

I also think that in today’s offense-challenged climate, a big bat is more valuable that a good arm. It’s elite hitting, not starting pitching, that’s in short supply, so a guy who can hit .300 with good power and gets on base is especially valuable. I think if you take away Kershaw and replace him with an average pitcher, then Zack Greinke’s the ace (of a staff with Hyun-jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, and Dan Haren) and the Dodgers are still okay.  Maybe they don't win the division, but they're still a playoff team. Remove Yasiel Puig from LA's lineup, however, and I’m not convinced they score enough runs to make their pitching stand up, not with injuries to Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez and poor seasons from A.J. Ellis, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp (who's only been good recently).

So this is a long-winder, roundabout way of saying that the best remaining MVP candidate is Puig, who’s having a Mike Trout-lite season, so to speak. His .316/.400/.540 batting line is huge, especially for someone who plays half his games in Dodger Stadium (which is reflected by his 165 OPS+). With 4.0 bWAR, Puig has been his team's best position player by far, propping up a star-studded lineup that's under-performed its talent level. And while he doesn't lead the league in anything, he's in the top 10 for almost everything and should only climb higher with Tulo and 'Cutch on the mend.

Puig would boost his chances significantly by making up the distance between him and those two. Time is on his side and ripe for him to raise his stock. But he must keep hitting. He needs to rediscover the power stroke that has all but abandoned him since late May (two homers and 16 RBI in his last 56 games). He has to finish strong.

Because if he doesn't, then it's going to be that much easier to choose Kershaw.

Way to Go, Wright

Wright's achieved a lot in the ten years since his first game (BleacherNation)

Yesterday marked the ten-year anniversary of David Wright's major league debut (the Mets lost, of course). So in honor of the Mets' 31 year-old third baseman, here are ten of his most impressive accomplishments:

1--Wright's ranking in Mets franchise history in RBI, hits, doubles, total bases, walks, runs scored, sacrifice flies, times on base, extra base hits, runs created, and strikeouts. They call him Mr. Met for a reason, you know.

2--Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers Wright has won. Wright received both in 2007 and 2008.

3--NL Player of the Week awards; one in 2005, another in 2006 and his most recent in 2011. Also the number of times he's stolen more than 20 bases in a season.

4--Winning teams Wright has played for. Also the number of times he's finished in the top-ten of the NL MVP voting.

5--The number worn by Wright on the back of his jersey (great number, by the way). Also the number of All-Star Games in which he's been National League's starting third baseman.

6--Seasons with at least 20 home runs for Wright, who's currently sitting on 230 for his career.

7--All-Star selections. Wright made the NL squad every year from 2006 through 2010, then again in 2012 and 2013. Also the number of times he's hit better than .300 in a season.

8--Seasons with an OPS over .850/OPS+ over 120.

9--Wright's rank among active players in Power-Speed #. On a related note, also the number of consecutive seasons (not including this one) where Wright's recorded at least 10 homers and 10 steals.

10--Postseason games, all in 2006 when the Mets took the eventual World Series champion Cardinals to the brink in the NLCS. Don't ask Mets fans (or Carlos Beltran) how that one turned out.

My 2014 NL All-Star Starting Lineup

Why is Gomez batting ninth when he's a superb leadoff hitter? (NYPost)

With the All-Star Game kicking off soon, I just wanted to give my two cents on the National League lineup after taking a look at the AL's last night. Mike Matheny has a great team here, one that's better than the American League squad on paper (both have eight righthanded hitters, one notices, but I have to admit I'm very puzzled by the bottom half of his order:

1. CF Andrew McCutchen--Cutch's combination of elite on-base skills (he leads the league in walks and ranks second in OB) and speed (15 steals without being caught yet) makes him the ideal leadoff hitter for this event. Terrific power too.

2. RF Yasiel Puig--Offensively he's just a lighter version of McCutchen. Blessed with great power, speed, and on-base ability, Puig's a pretty good table-setter.

3. SS Troy Tulowitzki--Tradition says the best hitter bats third, and there's no arguing that Tulowitzki hasn't been the best hitter in baseball this year. Tulo leads the majors in batting, OBP, and OPS in addition to having the NL's highest slugging percentage and most home runs.

4. 1B Paul Goldschmidt--Good spot for last year's National League home run and RBI leader.

5. DH Giancarlo Stanton--Can't wait to see what he has in store after the bombs he hit last night.

6. 3B Aramis Ramirez--A real headscratcher seeing as how he's clearly having a worse season than the guys filling the bottom two spots in the order.

7. 2B Chase Utley--See Ramirez, Aramis.

8. C Jonathan Lucroy--You're in good shape when you've got Lucroy, a .315/.385/.494 hitter this year, batting eighth.

9. LF Carlos Gomez--Typically bats leadoff, so hitting ninth has gotta be a real curveball for him. He's way too good to hit ninth though, a spot that should be reserved for Utley or Ramirez.

SP Adam Wainwright--Would have rather seen Clayton Kershaw, but Wainwright's not a bad consolation prize.

Here's how I would have assembled my lineup:

1. Gomez
2. McCutchen
3. Tulowitzki
4. Goldschmidt
5. Stanton
6. Puig
7. Lucroy
8. Utley
9. Ramirez

Stack the speed at the top with power and OBP throughout. Let Gomez, a natural leadoff hitter, bat first. Thought about Stanton at cleanup. Gotta stick the older, weaker hitters at the bottom.

My Prediction: National League wins 4-2.

Ranking the NL Final Vote Candidates

Rendon's performance is worthy of his first All-Star appearance (CSN Washington)

While the American League Final Vote race is comprised of five hurlers, the National League field features five position players, three of whom have never been named All-Stars before. That makes comparing them easy, as does the fact that all five play corner positions (four in the infield and one, Justin Upton, in the outfield). Still, for the purposes of the game I'm trying to pick the best player. I was torn between the top two choices, but ultimately feel that I made the correct call.

5. Casey McGehee (1.4 bWAR)
McGehee's a great comeback story playing as well as he is after spending 2013 in Japan and struggling badly in the two years before that. He's leading the loop in hits and batting a robust .318, but without any power (one home run) or speed (one stolen base). So while he's hitting for a great average and getting on base at a tremendous clip, he hasn't been nearly as valuable as those numbers would suggest due to his inability to clear the fences, swipe a bag, or play even capable defense at the hot corner. He has the lowest OPS, raw and adjusted, of the five and doesn't bring anything to the table elsewhere, so he's an easy first cut.

4. Justin Morneau (1.9 bWAR)
Looking to make his first All-Star team since 2010 and fifth overall (but first as a National League representative), Morneau's enjoying a big bounce back year at 33. He's hitting nearly as well as McGehee--.313 to the Marlin's .318--but with much more pop. Morneau has the same number of doubles (20) and 12 more home runs, which explains his 119 point advantage in slugging percentage. And while Coors Field has certainly boosted his numbers a bit, he's still batting over .300 on the road with a slugging percentage close to .500. Morneau's hit everywhere this year, but for a Rockies first baseman his numbers are merely good, not great. Thus, he's next to go.

3. Justin Upton (1.7 bWR)
B.J. Upton's kid brother is having another fine all-around season, albeit still not at the superstar level everyone thought he'd have reached by now. His 17 home runs rank fifth in the National League, four behind league leader Giancarlo Stanton. His 50 RBI are just outside the Circuit's top 10, as are his .503 slugging percentage and .854 OPS. He's also getting on base at a good clip (.350 OBP) despite striking out a ton, and has seven steals in eight attempts as well. Because of his power and speed I like his game more than Morneau's; Upton's skills are better suited for the Midsummer Classic, which he's appeared in twice before (in 2009 and 2011).

2. Anthony Rizzo (2.7 bWAR)
Rizzo disappointed last year, but this year he's been the hitter everyone thought he'd be. A better hitter than Upton, to be sure, which is why I have Rizzo ranked higher. With his name plastered all over the leaderboards, the Cubs first baseman has been one of the Senior Circuit's ten best hitters this year. That alone gives him a very strong case. His 19 home runs are second only to Stanton in the NL, and he's showed tremendous patience by walking 51 times, an approach that's fueling his .383 OBP. Rizzo, along with teammate Starlin Castro, is having a great year for a terrible team and deserves to be recognized for it, but unfortunately for him he's not the best player on this list.

1. Anthony Rendon (3.0 bWAR)
The 24 year-old Rendon is making a name for himself in his second big league season. After holding his own as a rookie last year, he's made great strides by improving his game in several areas. He's hitting for more power, playing better defense and being smarter on the basepaths, all while being forced to play out of position due to Ryan Zimmerman's injury. His numbers don't jump off the page, but he does everything well. As it stands, he's on pace to score 120 runs with 190 hits, 40 doubles, 10 triples, 25 home runs, 100 RBI, 15 steals, 60 walks and 325 or so total bases. There aren't many players in the game today, regardless of position, capable of that kind of all-around production. He's been huge for the Nationals this year, stepping up to man the hot corner in Zimmerman's absence, and because of his bat and versatility deserves to make his first All-Star squad.

Rizzo's easily the best hitter on this list, but WAR confirms that Rendon's been the better player. Almost as good with the bat, better on the bases and more valuable in the field as well. So as much as I hate to leave Rizzo out, that's why I'm voting Rendon by a nose.