2017 NL Final Vote Analysis

Turner is having a year reminiscent of peak George Brett (Los Angeles Times)

If you haven't cast your ballot for the All-Star Game Final Vote, it's not too late! Polling closes at 4 PM EST, so make sure you get those votes in. After deciding that Logan Morrison was the most worthy of the five American League candidates, it's time to take a look at the National League five, ranked in order of FanGraphs WAR:

Justin Turner (3.9 fWAR .384/.473/.571 182 wRC+ .446 wOBA)

Anthony Rendon (3.7 fWAR .297/.398/.549 145 wRC+ .397 wOBA)

Kris Bryant (2.5 fWAR .263/.394/.505 135 wRC+ .381 wOBA)

Justin Bour (1.8 fWAR .289/.365/.557 138 wRC+ .384 wOBA)

Mark Reynolds (0.7 fWAR .286/.372/.517 116 wRC+ .378 wOBA)

There's a much bigger range here than in the AL, where four of the five candidates were clustered in the 2-3 win range. We can immediately eliminated Bour and Reynolds, who have posted lesser numbers at first base compared to their league-mates at third. Reynolds has been a product of Coors Field with a 1.084 OPS there compared to .729 everywhere else. Bour is having a fine season with 19 home runs, but he's clearly had an inferior year to the three hot-corner men on the ballot.

And that's where it gets tricky, just as separating the trio of AL shortstops proved difficult. Bryant is the reigning MVP and undoubtedly the biggest star on the ballot, but he's also fallen off a bit from last year and hasn't been as good as Rendon or Turner. What you do with him depends on your philosophy of what the All-Star Game should be. If you feel the Midsummer Classic should showcase the game's household names, then Bryant's your guy. If you feel the best players of the first half should be honored (as I do, to a point), then you're looking elsewhere.

While Rendon's having a fantastic year, his numbers can't compete with Turner's, which are truly remarkable. Aside from Freddie Freeman, he's been the National League's best hitter this year, with only the otherworldly Mike Trout and Aaron Judge surpassing him in the American League. Only Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt have produced more offensive value in the Senior Circuit, and both play first base. The best hitter on the NL's most dominant team should be a no-brainer.

2017 AL Final Vote Analysis

LoMo is the clear-cut choice in the AL (CBS Sports)

The All-Star Game's Final Vote closes at 4 PM EST today, so it's time to make some last-minute picks! In the American League, we have a pair of slugging corner infielders pitted against a trio of good-hitting shortstops. Who deserves to go Miami next week? Let's dive in with a quick glance at the candidates (ranked in order of FanGraphs WAR):

Logan Morrison (2.9 fWAR .256/.366/.579 145 wRC+ .386 wOBA)

Xander Bogaerts (2.6 fWAR .308/.362/.448 110 wRC+ .345 wOBA)

Elvis Andrus (2.2 fWAR .301/.347/.473 114 wRC+ .350 wOBA)

Didi Gregorius (2.2 fWAR .302/.331/.477 112 wRC+ .341 wOBA)

Mike Moustakas (1.6 fWAR .269/.305/.559 120 wRC+ .356 wOBA)

We can one we can eliminate right off the bat, and that's Moustakas. While his 25 home runs are impressive, his on-base percentage is on par with the three shortstops' batting averages. With no steals and uninspiring defense at third base, Moustakas has been a mostly one-dimensional slugger who can be dismissed in favor of the three shortstops -- who have rivaled his offense while playing a more demanding position -- and Morrison, who has been a much better hitter.

It's almost impossible to separate the three shortstops, who rank 5-7 in fWAR among MLB players at their position with at least 100 plate appearances. Gregorius (2.2 fWAR) has been arguably the best hitter of the trio on a per at-bat basis, but he's also played the least due to a lengthy stay on the Disabled List that delayed his season debut until April 28. He's shown the most pop with 10 homers and 12 doubles in 239 at-bats, but he's also worked only nine walks and hasn't made the same impact on the bases (two steals in three tries). He'd need to have a clear edge in rate stats to compensate for his lesser playing time, but since he doesn't he's the next to go.

Bogaerts (2.6 fWAR) has the best average (.308) and on-base percentage (.362) of the trio, but is also toting a considerably lower slugging percentage (.448) despite playing his home games in Fenway Park. He's still recovering from his 41-game homerless streak to start the season, although he's gone deep six times in 39 games since. He's stolen nine bases in 10 attempts and is playing solid defense, but he's essentially been a slightly lesser version of Andrus, who has nearly twice as many homers (11) and more than double the steals (20, although he's been caught seven times) while posting a slightly stronger batting line.

That brings us to our most deserving candidate, Mr. Morrison (2.9 fWAR), who's blown the other four candidates out of the water in terms of offensive production and rates the highest for overall value. He was inexplicably snubbed in the first round of fan voting and was also passed over for the Home Run Derby in favor of Gary Sanchez, which he's rightfully ticked about. In any case, Morrison should have gotten the starting nod to begin with, as he's third among all first basemen in fWAR behind only Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto, who are having MVP-caliber seasons. He's putting up the same numbers as starting first baseman Justin Smoak, albeit in a much tougher ballpark for hitters. Morrison is having a career year and should be rightfully honored for it.

2017 MLB Midseason Awards

Goldschmidt is having an MVP-caliber season for the D-backs (MLB.com)

With many teams at or near the midway point of their season, it's time to hand out some hardware!

AL MVP: Aaron Judge
An easy call, as Judge is leading all position players in WAR (and pretty much everything else).

AL Rookie of the Year: Aaron Judge
Only two players have ever won Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season; Fred Lynn in 1975 and Ichiro Suzuki in 2001. Judge is on track to become the third.

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
The preseason favorite is now the midseason frontrunner, as Sale leads all of baseball (pitchers and position players) in WAR after twirling seven shutout innings and striking out 11 in Toronto yesterday. He's currently on pace for 22 wins and 332 strikeouts, which would be the most since Randy Johnson's 334 in 2002. NESN notes that he has 56 more K's than baserunners allowed, putting him on pace eclipse Pedro Martinez's record differential of 110 from 2000 -- regarded by many as the best season a pitcher ever had.

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Alex Cobb
I'm never sure how to choose this award, but I feel like it's more geared towards players coming back from injury rather than substandard seasons. As such, Cobb is the choice here after making five starts last year in an abbreviated comeback from Tommy John surgery. He's rounded into form after struggling in his first handful of outings, posting a 3.38 ERA while holding opponents to a ,255 average over his past 12 starts. He's also on track for over 200 innings, which would be a career high, while providing stability for Tampa Bay's rotation beyond Chris Archer.

NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt
Close call here between him and Joey Votto, who's been a slightly better hitter (and the best in the NL), but Goldschmidt makes up the difference on the bases and with superior glovework at first. He's leading the Majors in runs (70) and RBIs (66) as a driving force for Arizona's 51-31 start. Voters love RBI guys on winning teams, but more analytically-inclined writers should have no problem getting behind his 1.029 OPS.

NL Rookie of the Year: Cody Bellinger
The NL's answer to Aaron Judge is going to run away with the award, if not hit 50 homers (he currently leads the NL with 24).

NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer
If you've been on the internet lately, then you've heard that Scherzer has unofficially surpassed Clayton Kershaw as the NL's top hurler, as even Kershaw has fallen victim to the home run epidemic sweeping across baseball. Surprisingly Scherzer, who has been homer-prone at times throughout the career, has not. That's pretty much the difference between them right now, so if Kershaw can keep the ball in the yard and/or Scherzer endures another bout of gopheritis, then order will be restored and King Clayton will reclaim his throne.

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Brandon McCarthy
McCarthy has already surpassed his innings total from the past two seasons combined and is pitching like he was in his prime at the start of the decade. Injuries sabotaged his first two seasons with the Dodgers, but now that he's healthy he's pitching like the guy they thought they were getting when they signed him to a four-year, $48 million deal following his lone 200-inning campaign in 2014.

2017 MLB Award Predictions

Can anyone challenge Mike Trout? (LA Times)

Seeing that Chris Sale was tabbed as the Cy Young frontrunner in the American League while researching my last post got me thinking about who will take home the hardware this fall. Here are my picks:

AL MVP: Mike Trout
Trout has never been better, coming off his second 10-win season and about to enter a player's traditional prime at age 25. He led the majors in walks (116), runs (123), OBP (.441), and OPS+ (174) last year while smacking 29 homers, stealing 30 bases and driving in 100. As always, the biggest obstacle to Trout winning the award will be his teammates, who project to be not very good and will inevitably open the door for a lesser player on a contender to challenge Trout. Of the mere mortals, Josh Donaldson probably has the best chance after averaging 7.8 bWAR over the past four seasons, but his team may also struggle to stay above .500. Same goes for Manny Machado, who's not quite Donaldson's equal as a hitter but is a superior fielder and is still improving. Mookie Betts and Jose Altuve will give Trout a run, too, though I'm not convinced either will duplicate last year's power spikes. If Trout wins he'll become the youngest three-time winner in baseball history.

AL Cy Young: Corey Kluber
As noted above, Sale is the early favorite, and I could see him winning if he pitches as well as he did last year and wins 22 games instead of 17 thanks to Boston's better, well, everything. But he's a lefty in Fenway, so it wouldn't surprise me if he winds up with the highest ERA of his career (which is currently 3.41), especially if his strikeout rate doesn't rebound. New rotation-mate David Price could bounce back if his elbow holds up, although Rick Porcello is bound to regress along with several other top finishers from last year, including J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, Zach Britton, and Justin Verlander (don't hate me, Kate Upton). My money's on Kluber, the 2014 recipient who placed third last year after leading the league in FIP (3.26), ERA+ (149) and shutouts (2). Cleveland looks poised to run away with the division this year, which should help him win a healthy number of games. And while he turns 31 ten days into April, his arm has a lot less mileage (887 1/3 innings) than most hurlers his age.

AL Rookie of the Year: Andrew Benintendi
It's been a decade since the Red Sox had continuity in left field (miss you, Manny Ramirez), but that's about to change real soon. Benintendi dazzled during last year's call-up, proving he's the real deal by slashing .295/.359/.476 with 14 extra-base hits in 34 games. Recently named baseball's top prospect, he appears ready to set the league on fire this year at the age of 22. There's been talk of batting him third in Boston's lineup, which could result in some impressive counting stats if he sticks there all season. He'll likely lose some playing time to Chris Young if he doesn't improve against lefties, however, after batting just .179 with no extra-base knocks against them last year.

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Michael Brantley
Brantley suited up for just 11 games in a lost 2016 and was notably absent from Cleveland's World Series run, making it easy to forget the guy who batted .319/.382/.494 over the previous two seasons. Look for the nearly-30-year-old to get back on track this year and spark the Indians to another division title.

NL MVP: Bryce Harper
Harper looked well on his way to a second straight MVP last April, slugging nine home runs with 24 RBIs and a 1.274 OPS over his first 19 games before a shoulder injury reduced him to a league-average hitter the rest of the way. Now fully healthy, expect the 24-year-old to mimic his Ted Williams-esque production from two years ago for a Nationals team seeking its fourth division title in six years. If he's unable to stay on the field, however, reigning winner Kris Bryant is looming and Corey Seager could be even better as a sophomore. Don't sleep on Nolan Arenado either if the Rockies compete this year.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw
If Kershaw's healthy, he's pretty much a lock. He missed a third of the season last year and still finished fifth. Nobody was better on a per-inning basis, and he was every bit as dominant when he returned from his back injury in September. If Kershaw wins again this will be his fourth, putting him in elite company with Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson as the only hurlers with more than three. If the injury bug bites again, however, the race becomes crowded by the likes of Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, and Noah Syndergaard.

NL Rookie of the Year: Dansby Swanson
Swanson shined in his 38-game debut last year, batting .302/.361/.442 for an Atlanta team that fell out of contention on Opening Day. They project to be better in 2017, however, and getting a full season from 2015's first overall draft pick can only help. The 23-year-old may have a Francisco Lindor-type season in store.

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Kyle Schwarber
After missing all but two regular season games along with the NLDS and NLCS, Schwarber returned for the World Series and didn't skip a beat, batting .412 with a .500 OBP against Cleveland's stingy staff. The 24-year-old should be all-systems-go for 2017 and will look to build off the .842 OPS he flashed as a rookie in 2015.

17 To Watch in 2017

After breaking out in 2016, is Sanchez headed for a sophomore slump? (CBS Sports)

Some players performed far below their standards last year, while others will look to build on unprecedented success. Here are 17 worth following in 2017.

1. Byron Buxton
The second overall pick of the 2012 draft has struggled at the plate, batting .220/.274/.398 in 138 big league games thus far. The 23-year-old was demoted last summer but showed promise after returning to the majors in September, smacking nine home runs and flashing a 1.022 OPS over the season's final month. The toolsy center fielder is already worth watching for his ridiculous range, but if he starts hitting he'll become a star.

2. Gary Sanchez
Sanchez set the world on fire as a 23-year-old rookie last summer, smashing 20 home runs in just 201 official at-bats. The most he ever hit during a minor league season was 18 (twice), so it will be interesting to see how his power numbers shake out, especially since his 40% HR/FB ratio was the highest of any player with at least 50 plate appearances. He probably won't keep hitting like Babe Ruth, but he should be good for 30 homers in a full slate of games.

3. Julio Urias
Urias held his own after debuting at the tender age of 19 last year, compiling a 3.39 ERA, a 3.17 FIP and a 9.8 K/9 rate across 77 innings. His command (3.6 BB/9) could use some polish, but he's already one of the game's best young moundsmen.

4. Andrew McCutchen
Few players saw their stock tumble as much in 2016 as McCutchen, who went from one of the NL's best batsmen in 2015 to a barely league average hitter last year. The former MVP appeared to be pressing too much to dig out from a slow start, but ultimately finished strong and may be poised for a big bounce back in his age-30 season.

5. Jason Heyward
Heyward cratered after signing an eight-year, $184 million deal with the Cubs last offseason, looking completely and utterly lost as he slashed .230/.306/.325 with a career-low seven homers. He's in the heart of his prime at 27 and had a career .768 OPS prior to last season, so the smart money's on him bouncing back, although it remains to be seen how he'll fare with his re-tooled swing.

6. Pablo Sandoval
Kung Fu Panda's been a huge bust since signing a five-year, $95 million deal with Boston two winters ago, and is coming off a season in which he lost his starting job and played three games before requiring surgery. The 30-year-old is still young enough to replicate his San Francisco success, which may happen now that he appears to be in great shape. The Red Sox are counting on him to produce (in what will be a pivotal year for him) after trading Travis Shaw and Yoan Moncada during the offseason.

7. Bryce Harper
His OPS dropped nearly 300 points from 2015 as his production returned to his pre-MVP levels. It's widely assumed that Harper was playing through a shoulder injury last year, which may explain why he fell off after a hot start. Still just 24, can he recapture the Ted Williams-like greatness he displayed two seasons ago?

8. Yasiel Puig
What happened to this guy? Once one of the game's brightest talents and a budding superstar, his OPS has decreased every year since he debuted in 2013. The Dodgers seemed to give up on him last year, putting him on waivers after demoting him in August. That seemed to light a fire under Puig, who tore up Triple-A and returned to LA with a vengeance in September. He could bounce back at 26...if he stops coasting on his natural tools and shows the focus required to succeed over 162 games.

Are Brad Miller's and Daniel Murphy's revamped power strokes legit? (ESPN)

 9. Brad Miller
Miller came out of nowhere to slug 30 homers last year, nearly tripling his previous career high of 11. While his 20.4% HR/FB rate was almost double his previous best, exceeding the likes of noted power hitters such as Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Donaldson, and Todd Frazier, there are several indications his power surge was legitimate. He pulled the ball more than ever before and appeared to sell out more often, striking out at the highest clip of his career. When he did make contact, however, he inflicted more damage, as improved exit velocity resulted in the best hard-hit rate and average batted ball distance of his career. Only one player in Rays history has produced consecutive 30-homer seasons (Carlos Pena); could Miller be the second?

10. Jose Bautista
Bautista made waves last winter by announcing his desire for a five-year, $150 million contract, but he didn't get anything close to that on the heels of his worst season this decade. He drew little interest after batting .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers in 116 games last year, leading him to return to Toronto on a one-year deal. Back in familiar confines north of the border, the 36-year-old will try to reverse two straight seasons of decline.

11. David Price
Price had his worst season since his rookie year after signing the largest contract ever for a pitcher last winter. He pitched better after a slow start, but just didn't look like himself for most of the year( except for July and August, his ERA was over four every month). His velocity was down, which explains why his strikeout rate declined and how he allowed the most hits in the majors. His walk rate also went up, which spoke to how uncomfortable/easily frustrated he appeared at times, which led to a lot of bad innings. It usually takes players a year to get used to Boston, even aces like him (see Josh Beckett and John Lackey), but the stats indicate his best days may already be behind him.

12. Rich Hill
Hill pitched like a Cy Young contender last year when healthy, but recurring blisters limited him to just 20 starts. He's exceeded that number only once -- all the way back in 2007 -- and it's hard to see him suddenly becoming a workhorse at age 37. Still, he's in a prime position to succeed with Los Angeles (one of the friendliest pitching environments in the majors -- just ask Zack Greinke) and could be a great sidekick for Clayton Kershaw.

13. Daniel Murphy
Murphy carried over his Ruthian postseason performance in 2015 into the '16 regular season, emerging as one of the National League's top hitters. In addition to pacing the senior circuit with 47 doubles, a .595 slugging and a .985 OPS, he batted .347 and socked 25 homers with 104 RBIs. Can he approach similar numbers in his age 32 season? Or will he regress into the .288/.331/.424 hitter he was before last year?

14. Matt Harvey
Harvey's 2016 was utterly disastrous, as he went 4-10 with a 4.86 ERA before being shut down for thoracic outlet surgery. Gotham's Dark Knight is expected to be fully recovered and will try to get re-establish himself as one of baseball's premier hurlers.

15. Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw continued to be the best pitcher on the planet last year, producing mind-boggling numbers such as a 1.69 ERA, a 1.80 FIP, a 0.73 WHIP, a 0.7 BB/9, and a 15.64 (!!!) K/BB ratio. Were it not for a back injury that caused him to miss about a dozen starts, he would have cruised to a fourth Cy Young and possibly another MVP. He's never been better as he prepares to enter his age-29 season.

16. Adrian Beltre
Last year Ichiro Suzuki became the 30th big leaguer with 3,000 hits. This year, Beltre becomes the 31st. He's only 58 knocks away from the magic number, which he could reach by Memorial Day. He's also on the cusp of several other round numbers, including 450 homers (five away), 600 doubles (nine away), 1,600 RBIs (29 away), 5,000 total bases (60 away), and 1,500 runs (72 away). Only three players have eclipsed all those milestones; Hank Aaron, Stan Musial, and Carl Yastrzemski. You're in pretty good company, Mr. Beltre.

17. Mike Trout
2017 will be Trout's age-25 season, meaning he's entering what is traditionally considered a player's prime. Good luck, AL pitchers. You're gonna need it.