2017 NL Final Vote Analysis

Turner is having a year reminiscent of peak George Brett (Los Angeles Times)

If you haven't cast your ballot for the All-Star Game Final Vote, it's not too late! Polling closes at 4 PM EST, so make sure you get those votes in. After deciding that Logan Morrison was the most worthy of the five American League candidates, it's time to take a look at the National League five, ranked in order of FanGraphs WAR:

Justin Turner (3.9 fWAR .384/.473/.571 182 wRC+ .446 wOBA)

Anthony Rendon (3.7 fWAR .297/.398/.549 145 wRC+ .397 wOBA)

Kris Bryant (2.5 fWAR .263/.394/.505 135 wRC+ .381 wOBA)

Justin Bour (1.8 fWAR .289/.365/.557 138 wRC+ .384 wOBA)

Mark Reynolds (0.7 fWAR .286/.372/.517 116 wRC+ .378 wOBA)

There's a much bigger range here than in the AL, where four of the five candidates were clustered in the 2-3 win range. We can immediately eliminated Bour and Reynolds, who have posted lesser numbers at first base compared to their league-mates at third. Reynolds has been a product of Coors Field with a 1.084 OPS there compared to .729 everywhere else. Bour is having a fine season with 19 home runs, but he's clearly had an inferior year to the three hot-corner men on the ballot.

And that's where it gets tricky, just as separating the trio of AL shortstops proved difficult. Bryant is the reigning MVP and undoubtedly the biggest star on the ballot, but he's also fallen off a bit from last year and hasn't been as good as Rendon or Turner. What you do with him depends on your philosophy of what the All-Star Game should be. If you feel the Midsummer Classic should showcase the game's household names, then Bryant's your guy. If you feel the best players of the first half should be honored (as I do, to a point), then you're looking elsewhere.

While Rendon's having a fantastic year, his numbers can't compete with Turner's, which are truly remarkable. Aside from Freddie Freeman, he's been the National League's best hitter this year, with only the otherworldly Mike Trout and Aaron Judge surpassing him in the American League. Only Joey Votto and Paul Goldschmidt have produced more offensive value in the Senior Circuit, and both play first base. The best hitter on the NL's most dominant team should be a no-brainer.

2017 AL Final Vote Analysis

LoMo is the clear-cut choice in the AL (CBS Sports)

The All-Star Game's Final Vote closes at 4 PM EST today, so it's time to make some last-minute picks! In the American League, we have a pair of slugging corner infielders pitted against a trio of good-hitting shortstops. Who deserves to go Miami next week? Let's dive in with a quick glance at the candidates (ranked in order of FanGraphs WAR):

Logan Morrison (2.9 fWAR .256/.366/.579 145 wRC+ .386 wOBA)

Xander Bogaerts (2.6 fWAR .308/.362/.448 110 wRC+ .345 wOBA)

Elvis Andrus (2.2 fWAR .301/.347/.473 114 wRC+ .350 wOBA)

Didi Gregorius (2.2 fWAR .302/.331/.477 112 wRC+ .341 wOBA)

Mike Moustakas (1.6 fWAR .269/.305/.559 120 wRC+ .356 wOBA)

We can one we can eliminate right off the bat, and that's Moustakas. While his 25 home runs are impressive, his on-base percentage is on par with the three shortstops' batting averages. With no steals and uninspiring defense at third base, Moustakas has been a mostly one-dimensional slugger who can be dismissed in favor of the three shortstops -- who have rivaled his offense while playing a more demanding position -- and Morrison, who has been a much better hitter.

It's almost impossible to separate the three shortstops, who rank 5-7 in fWAR among MLB players at their position with at least 100 plate appearances. Gregorius (2.2 fWAR) has been arguably the best hitter of the trio on a per at-bat basis, but he's also played the least due to a lengthy stay on the Disabled List that delayed his season debut until April 28. He's shown the most pop with 10 homers and 12 doubles in 239 at-bats, but he's also worked only nine walks and hasn't made the same impact on the bases (two steals in three tries). He'd need to have a clear edge in rate stats to compensate for his lesser playing time, but since he doesn't he's the next to go.

Bogaerts (2.6 fWAR) has the best average (.308) and on-base percentage (.362) of the trio, but is also toting a considerably lower slugging percentage (.448) despite playing his home games in Fenway Park. He's still recovering from his 41-game homerless streak to start the season, although he's gone deep six times in 39 games since. He's stolen nine bases in 10 attempts and is playing solid defense, but he's essentially been a slightly lesser version of Andrus, who has nearly twice as many homers (11) and more than double the steals (20, although he's been caught seven times) while posting a slightly stronger batting line.

That brings us to our most deserving candidate, Mr. Morrison (2.9 fWAR), who's blown the other four candidates out of the water in terms of offensive production and rates the highest for overall value. He was inexplicably snubbed in the first round of fan voting and was also passed over for the Home Run Derby in favor of Gary Sanchez, which he's rightfully ticked about. In any case, Morrison should have gotten the starting nod to begin with, as he's third among all first basemen in fWAR behind only Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto, who are having MVP-caliber seasons. He's putting up the same numbers as starting first baseman Justin Smoak, albeit in a much tougher ballpark for hitters. Morrison is having a career year and should be rightfully honored for it.

Dozier, Kershaw for Final Vote

Image courtesy of Sporting News

Today is the final day to vote in the All-Star Game's Final Vote, which allows the fans one last chance to send another Kansas City Royal (um, I mean player) from each league to next Tuesday's Midsummer Classic in Cincinnati.

With Brett Gardner, one of the five American League candidates, already getting the call to replace Alex Gordon, who will miss eight weeks with a strained groin, the AL field has already been reduced to four, which makes the voting somewhat easier. All American Leaguers are position players, which makes comparisons easier, but hardly easy as they all play different positions (one outfielder, a second baseman, a third baseman, and a shortstop).

Not surprisingly, the National League ballot is dominated by pitching. There are three starting pitchers up for election, all of whom are having fantastic years and all of whom just strengthened their cases with outstanding efforts this week. They're easy to compare, but there's also a closer and a shortstop throwing a wrench into the debate. Given that there are entirely too many relief pitchers named as All-Stars every year, I can tell you right now the closer won't be getting my vote and shouldn't be getting yours, either.

Surprisingly, this ballot is devoid of first basemen, who typically show up on these things due to the plethora of players having strong offensive seasons at the position. I'm not at all surprised by their omission on the AL ballot, as the only worthy candidates were Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols (not the still-adjusting Jose Abreu, shockingly), but there absolutely should have been a place for Joey Votto in the NL.

Anyways, on to the analysis. Candidates for each league are presented in alphabetical order, and I have included their WAR totals (Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs) in parentheses besides their names. All WAR really shows is that most of these guys have been remarkably similar in terms of value up to this point, which makes the decisions that much tougher.

Gardner is going to his first All-Star Game (River Ave Blues)

American League

Xander Bogaerts (2.6 bWAR/2.3 fWAR)
Bogaerts has been one of the few bright spots on an otherwise disappointing Red Sox roster. He's also been, according to FanGraphs, the best shortstop in the American League. Granted, that's not saying a lot when Jose Iglesias, Brad Miller, and Alcides Escobar are your closest competition (and Carlos Correa has barely played a month), but someone's gotta be number one. He's hitting over .300 and flashing improved defense at short, though his average is largely empty as he's managed just three home runs and 16 walks to date. Bogaerts should go by virtue of being the best at his position outside of Brandon Crawford, but he's simply not the best on this ballot. Despite being a big Red Sox fan who does not want Brock Holt to be my team's sole All-Star, I must pass.

Yoenis Cespedes (2.9 bWAR/2.8 fWAR)
Cespedes has been outstanding in his Detroit debut, making Ben Cherington look foolish for giving him and two minor leaguers up for the dreadful remains of what was once Rick Porcello. The Cuban slugger is on pace for his best season since his now-forgotten stellar rookie year. He still hasn't figured out this thing called patience, but that's fine so long as he keeps hitting close to .300 with top-shelf pop (he's third in the AL in doubles and fifth in extra base hits). The hard-hitting outfielder's power is second to a fellow candidate's, however, making him an indefensible choice in light of his .318 OBP.

AL Brian Dozier (3.2 bWAR/fWAR)
An All-Star snub last year, Dozier was again shut out this year despite being the best player on what was a first place team for much of the first half. The Twins second baseman has been one of the league's best power sources, pacing the AL in extra base hits and ranking second in doubles (one behind Jason Kipnis), fifth in total bases, and tenth in home runs and slugging. He's also second in runs with 64--as many as Mike Trout and just one behind Josh Donaldson for the league lead. Dozier has also made an impact on the bases, stealing nine bags in a dozen attempts, and is playing well defensively, leading the league at his position in range factor, assists, and double plays turned while placing second in fielding percentage. Put it all together, and you have the second-best second baseman in baseball. I think we have a winner.

Mike Moustakas (2.7 bWAR/2.1 fWAR)
Absolutely not. We already have enough Royals going to the All-Star Game. Plus he's come crashing back to earth since his fluky April, batting .276/.329/.397 since. Sorry. but that's not an All-Star third-baseman, unless we want to invite Pablo Sandoval, too.

Vote: Dozier

Dozier deserves to be an All-Star (Twin Cities)

NL National League

Johnny Cueto (2.9 bWAR/2.6 fWAR)
Cueto is coming off his best start of the season, a two-hit shutout of the Nationals in which he struck out a season-high 11 batters. Last year's NL Cy Young runner-up has been phenomenal again this year, posting a 2.61 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 5.29 K/BB ratio to date. The numbers say Cueto is worthy of his second straight All-Star nod, and it would be nice to see the hosting Reds get another representative.

Jeurys Familia (1.9 bWAR/0.6 fWAR)
As great as Familia has been for the Mets, you can toss him out immediately. The last thing the All-Star Game needs is more relief pitchers.

Clayton Kershaw (2.3 bWAR/3.7 fWAR)
The reigning NL MVP and Cy Young winner has slipped a bit only compared to last year's historic numbers. In a vacuum, though, his stats can only be considered otherworldly. With an ML-leading 160 strikeouts in 123 innings, he's currently whiffing nearly a dozen batters per nine innings and is on pace to threaten 300 K's for the season. He also boasts a 2.85 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, and 5.93 K/BB ratio, all of which are quite impressive. Though Cueto's numbers are slightly better, Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball over the past five years, and you can't have the All-Star Game without him. Furthermore, he's pitched better than his ERA and 6-6 record would indicate.

Carlos Martinez (2.5 bWAR/1.5 fWAR)
The 23 year-old Cardinal has been sensational in his first season as a full-time starter, going 10-3 with a 2.52 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning in the first half. He's been incredibly dominant lately, allowing just nine earned runs over his past ten starts and providing ace-level production in Adam Wainwright's absence. He doesn't have the name recognition or mind-blowing peripherals of Cueto and Kershaw, which is why I'm going to pass, but there's no shame in finishing behind those two.

Troy Tulowitzki (1.5 bWAR/1.2 fWAR)
It's been a strange year for Tulo, who's taken a notable dive in his age-30 season. His power is down, strikeouts are up, and plate discipline has disappeared. His formerly Gold Glove defense has also deteriorated. On the bright side, he's hitting well over .300 and has hit safely in 33 of his past 34 games, including his last 21 straight--a major league season-high. More importantly the injury prone shortstop has stayed on the field, missing just eight Rockies games to date. If he were in the American League he'd be a no-brainer, but against the Senior Circuit's more formidable field he doesn't quite make the cut. It also must be said that his numbers would be much more impressive if he didn't play half his games in Coors Field.

Vote: Like last year's AL Cy Young race between Felix Hernandez and Corey Kluber, it's a virtual toss-up between Cueto and Kershaw. Both have their arguments--Cueto pitches for the hometown team but Kershaw has the better reputation, and their performance has been almost indistinguishable. Both are worthy and I'm sure both will get to go once somebody inevitably backs out or decides he's unavailable to pitch. I simply can't fathom an All-Star Game without Kershaw, who's pitched tremendously this year and my gut tells me has been more dominant (Cueto's benefiting from a .229 BABiP), so that's why I'm going with him.

Cueto's numbers are a bit better, but Kershaw's the bigger star (Rant Sports)

Ranking the NL Final Vote Candidates

Rendon's performance is worthy of his first All-Star appearance (CSN Washington)

While the American League Final Vote race is comprised of five hurlers, the National League field features five position players, three of whom have never been named All-Stars before. That makes comparing them easy, as does the fact that all five play corner positions (four in the infield and one, Justin Upton, in the outfield). Still, for the purposes of the game I'm trying to pick the best player. I was torn between the top two choices, but ultimately feel that I made the correct call.

5. Casey McGehee (1.4 bWAR)
McGehee's a great comeback story playing as well as he is after spending 2013 in Japan and struggling badly in the two years before that. He's leading the loop in hits and batting a robust .318, but without any power (one home run) or speed (one stolen base). So while he's hitting for a great average and getting on base at a tremendous clip, he hasn't been nearly as valuable as those numbers would suggest due to his inability to clear the fences, swipe a bag, or play even capable defense at the hot corner. He has the lowest OPS, raw and adjusted, of the five and doesn't bring anything to the table elsewhere, so he's an easy first cut.

4. Justin Morneau (1.9 bWAR)
Looking to make his first All-Star team since 2010 and fifth overall (but first as a National League representative), Morneau's enjoying a big bounce back year at 33. He's hitting nearly as well as McGehee--.313 to the Marlin's .318--but with much more pop. Morneau has the same number of doubles (20) and 12 more home runs, which explains his 119 point advantage in slugging percentage. And while Coors Field has certainly boosted his numbers a bit, he's still batting over .300 on the road with a slugging percentage close to .500. Morneau's hit everywhere this year, but for a Rockies first baseman his numbers are merely good, not great. Thus, he's next to go.

3. Justin Upton (1.7 bWR)
B.J. Upton's kid brother is having another fine all-around season, albeit still not at the superstar level everyone thought he'd have reached by now. His 17 home runs rank fifth in the National League, four behind league leader Giancarlo Stanton. His 50 RBI are just outside the Circuit's top 10, as are his .503 slugging percentage and .854 OPS. He's also getting on base at a good clip (.350 OBP) despite striking out a ton, and has seven steals in eight attempts as well. Because of his power and speed I like his game more than Morneau's; Upton's skills are better suited for the Midsummer Classic, which he's appeared in twice before (in 2009 and 2011).

2. Anthony Rizzo (2.7 bWAR)
Rizzo disappointed last year, but this year he's been the hitter everyone thought he'd be. A better hitter than Upton, to be sure, which is why I have Rizzo ranked higher. With his name plastered all over the leaderboards, the Cubs first baseman has been one of the Senior Circuit's ten best hitters this year. That alone gives him a very strong case. His 19 home runs are second only to Stanton in the NL, and he's showed tremendous patience by walking 51 times, an approach that's fueling his .383 OBP. Rizzo, along with teammate Starlin Castro, is having a great year for a terrible team and deserves to be recognized for it, but unfortunately for him he's not the best player on this list.

1. Anthony Rendon (3.0 bWAR)
The 24 year-old Rendon is making a name for himself in his second big league season. After holding his own as a rookie last year, he's made great strides by improving his game in several areas. He's hitting for more power, playing better defense and being smarter on the basepaths, all while being forced to play out of position due to Ryan Zimmerman's injury. His numbers don't jump off the page, but he does everything well. As it stands, he's on pace to score 120 runs with 190 hits, 40 doubles, 10 triples, 25 home runs, 100 RBI, 15 steals, 60 walks and 325 or so total bases. There aren't many players in the game today, regardless of position, capable of that kind of all-around production. He's been huge for the Nationals this year, stepping up to man the hot corner in Zimmerman's absence, and because of his bat and versatility deserves to make his first All-Star squad.

Rizzo's easily the best hitter on this list, but WAR confirms that Rendon's been the better player. Almost as good with the bat, better on the bases and more valuable in the field as well. So as much as I hate to leave Rizzo out, that's why I'm voting Rendon by a nose.

AL Final Vote: Choose Chris Sale

Chicago's sale is having a Cy Young caliber season (TheSportsPost)

Not surprisingly, in a year where offense continues to take a back seat to pitching and defense, all five of the American League's candidates for the final roster spots are men who make their living on the mound. And with the exception of Chris Sale, none of them have been All-Star before. They're not quite household names just yet, but one of them could become one depending on how the voting turns out.

Well, at least having a quintet of pitchers to choose from makes the comparisons easy. Here are my rankings in descending order, from least deserving to most deserving.

5. Rick Porcello
Porcello hasn't been this good since 2009, when he was a 20 year-old rookie making a name for himself in a rotation featuring Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson (when he was good), and Armando Galarraga (pre-near-perfecto). But don't let his shiny record (11-5) fool you; he's the least deserving candidate. Not only is his 3.53 ERA the highest of the five, but he also has the fewest strikeouts and lowest bWAR score. He's having a good season, don't get me wrong, on track to post the best numbers of his career and possibly win 20 games. But he's a middle of the rotation guy, not an ace, as his 3.94 FIP and 3.85 xFIP suggest. Porcello's closer to an average pitcher than his luck-suppressed ERA would suggest. Put him on a lesser team, without the bats of Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler to back him, and his record is closer to .500 and we're not even having this conversation. Pass on Porcello, please.

4. Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel's transformation into an All-Star caliber starter has been one of this year's most pleasant surprises for the Houston Astros. After putting up a 5.20 ERA through his first two seasons, which included 38 starts, Keuchel did not appear to have a bright future as even an average starting pitcher. This year, however, he's been a revelation, sporting a 3.06 ERA through his first 16 starts, a mark supported by his 3.14 FIP. He's lowered  his WHIP--over 1.5 in 2012 and 2013--by trimming his walk rate to 2.2 BB/9--almost a full batter better than last year's mark--and limiting his hits allowed to fewer than one per inning (which, based on his .304 BABiP against, does not appear to be linked to good fortune or helpful defense).

Keuchel's been a bit lucky with his strand rate, but has been doing a much better job of inducing ground ball outs and keeping the ball in the park (only six home runs allowed on the season). Keuchel doesn't dominate batters and is an average strikeout pitcher at best, which might explain his recent troubles. The lefty's ERA, which stood at 2.38 in the middle of June, has ballooned to 3.06 since after he allowed 13 earned runs and 39 baserunners (walks plus hits plus hit batters) in his three most recent starts. Keuchel was a much stronger candidate before then, and as it stands now he's not quite good enough to merit that final roster spot.

3. Garrett Richards
In Richards' case, his phenomenal W-L record (10-2) accurately reflects how well he's pitched this year. Save for a brief hiccup at the end of May, he's been phenomenal since day one. In addition to having the league's lowest H/9 rate, he also ranks among the AL's top five in wins, winning percentage, WHIP, home rate rate, and FIP. On top of that, he's also in the top ten for strikeouts, K rate, pitching WAR, ERA, and adjusted ERA.  Enjoying his finest season to date, the 26 year-old has a great case. Since the calendar flipped to June he's been unbeatable, compiling a 1.45 ERA over his most recent seven starts--all quality--with 55 strikeouts against 14 walks in just under 50 innings. The Angels have won every won of those starts as Richards has emerged as their ace, outshining LA's more established (and expensive) starters Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson. Richards wouldn't be a bad choice: he's just not the best choice.

2. Corey Kluber
Like Richards, Kluber's quietly made the leap to great pitcher this year--his third as a starting pitcher--following last season's breakout. He's already surpassed his strikeout total from last year in 22 fewer innings, and with 137 (fourth-most in the AL) is on pace to sail past 200. After a slow start he's come on strong lately, lowering his ERA almost half a run from 3.35 on midway through June to 2.86 after his most recent start--a masterful turn against the Royals on Sunday. His numbers are excellent across the board, from his 2.65 FIP (second best in the American League!) to his 9.81 K/9 rate (fifth-best) and his 4.57 K/BB ratio (sixth). He's been reliable too, leading the majors in starts with 19 and racking up more innings than any American League pitcher not named David Price or Felix Hernandez. His record (8-6) just isn't that great because he plays for a mediocre Indians club. Is Kluber having an All-Star season? Absolutely. But there's someone better on this list.

1. Chris Sale
Sale, who authored one of the season's best starts on the Fourth of July versus Seattle, is clearly the best pitcher of this bunch and deserving of his third straight All-Star nod. Ignore the fact that he missed over a month with an elbow strain and marvel at his otherworldly statistics. Such as his 2.16 ERA, which would rank second to only Felix Hernandez if he had enough innings to qualify. Or his six strikeouts for every walk. Or his 0.87 WHIP, which would be the best in the American League. He's barely thrown 87 innings, 21 fewer than any other candidate listed here, but those 87 and one-third frames have been more valuable according to BR's pitching version of WAR. In fact, only Masahiro Tanaka, Mark Buehrle, and King Felix have been more valuable among American League pitchers in terms of WAR, and they've all completed approximately 50 percent more innings than him. On a per-inning basis, Sale's been arguably the best pitcher in the Junior Circuit this year. That's why I'm overlooking his missed time and taking him for the final roster spot.