Will Wright Recover?

Another devastating injury has placed Wright's future in doubt (Sporting News)

Spring Training is supposed to be a time for optimism, especially for baseball's fallen stars. Players are in the best shape of their lives, eager to prove they can still hack it. Last year's slumps are in the past. There's hope that Jason Heyward and Pablo Sandoval will hit again, that Matt Harvey and Sonny Gray will rediscover their dominance. Everyone has a clean slate, and even the most unlikely comebacks seem possible (remember Grady Sizemore?).

For David Wright, however, this spring has brought only more pain and misery. He hasn't been able to throw since being diagnosed with a right shoulder impingement in late February, and likely won't be able to until the Mets break camp. Wright will stay behind in Florida, where he'll once again set down the road to recovery.

But as the 34-year-old works his way back from yet another injury, scribes have called his future into question while simultaneously reminding us how great he used to be. When the news was first announced, ESPN wondered if Wright was finished. SI lamented how his body began falling apart just as the Mets started coming together.

Wright's career arc has been tragic, marked by late-season collapses, poor supporting casts, and debilitating injuries that have prevented him from logging a full season since 2012 and derailed what was shaping up to be a Hall of Fame career. They've caused him to age more like Scott Rolen than Adrian Beltre, limiting him to a .266/.339/.396 (107 OPS+) slash line and 3.0 bWAR over the past three seasons combined. He can no longer play the field, doesn't contribute on the bases and is merely average at the plate, which are all problems for a guy earning $20 million a year.

Still, all this talk of Wright's demise seems premature. He still has three years remaining on his contract beyond 2017 and is closer to 30 than 40. Even if he sits the entire year out, he could still conceivably return next year and be productive at 35. While most of his skills have deteriorated, his pop and patience are still intact (as evidenced by his .212 ISO and 15.9 percent walk rate last year), so he's not totally useless. He'd have more value to an American League team as a DH, but this winter revealed the demand for his skill set to be at an all-time low.

It wasn't too long ago that Wright was one of the most desirable players in baseball, a five-tool third basemen seemingly destined for Cooperstown. Now he's on the sidelines again, and one has to wonder how much suffering he'll go through before deciding to stay there.

Wright Following in Rolen's Footsteps

Wright has missed significant time in 5 of the past 6 seasons (CBS New York)

With David Wright sidelined by yet another injury, this time out indefinitely with spinal stenosis, I couldn't help but think of another talented two-way third baseman who became a walking medical bill in his 30s.

For almost a decade before Wright burst on the scene with the Mets, Scott Rolen was the National League's best at the hot corner. In fact, from 1997-2004, Rolen ranked third among MLB position players in fWAR behind only Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez. I was surprised to see that during this time, Rolen was a more valuable player than Chipper Jones, who many feel is Hall of Fame-bound.

Rolen appeared headed for Cooperstown as well following his monster 2004 campaign, in which he was worth 9.1 bWAR and posted a 1.007 OPS. Like Nomar Garciaparra and countless others throughout baseball history, however, he was unable to sustain his early success as injuries sapped his performance during his 30s. Multiple shoulder surgeries wrecked his career, preventing him from completing what was shaping up to be a Hall of Fame resume.

Wright, who also had a Cooperstown-caliber start to his career, has closely mirrored Rolen's trajectory. Both debuted at 21, secured everyday roles at 22, and immediately emerged as elite players. After remaining mostly healthy and productive throughout their 20s, they began experiencing injury problems and deteriorating performance in their early 30s.

Through age 32 (Wright's current age) their numbers are remarkably similar:

Rolen 1,505 G 954 R 380 2B 261 HR 1,012 RBI 104 SB .283/.372/.507 (126 OPS+) 55 bWAR
Wright 1,516 G 910 R 375 2B 231 HR 943 RBI 193 SB .298/.377/.494 (134 OPS+) 49.9 bWAR

Wright's future is unknown in the wake of his latest malady, but appears gloomy based on how the second half of Rolen's career played out. Constantly beset by injuries, Rolen averaged just 11 home runs and 57 RBI per season during his 30s. The Mets can only hope that Wright, who is owed $87 million over the next five seasons, avoids a similar decline.

What's Wrong With Wright?

As the Mets play out the string on another noncompetitive season, half a game out of last place in the NL East and 10 below .500 entering play today, their struggles seem to have infected David Wright, their star third baseman. An All-Star each of the past two years, Wright's been one of baseball's five best players since he debuted in 2004. He's consistently hit for power and average, gets on base, and runs the bases well, all while offering good defense at a demanding position and serving as the face of New York's other baseball franchise.

This year, at the age of 31, he hasn't been doing any of those things. He's scuffling along at .263/.322/.363, well below his established career standards. He only has eight home runs and 56 RBI after averaging 22 and 88 over his first 10 seasons, and his ISo. this year isn't even half of what it was last year. He's been caught stealing nearly as many times (5) as he's been successful (6).

His walk rate--over 10 percent every year except his first--has fallen beneath 8 percent. And his strikeout rate--between 16 and 17 percent the last two years--has jumped to over 18 percent. After homering once every 23.3 at-bats prior to this season, he's gone deep just once every 62.4 at-bats in 2014.

Put it all together and Wright's on track for the worst non-injury affected offensive campaign of his career. My question is: why?

One reason is that Wright's BABiP, which traditionally has been north of .340, has fallen to .313 this year. Still better than the league average, but below average by his personal standards. If anything, Wright's BABiP should actually be higher than last year's, as he's hitting more line drives and ground balls, both of which can be expected to turn into hits more often than fly balls and pop-ups, of which Wright is hitting fewer this year. So yeah, there's definitely some bad luck in there. Give Wright his standard .340 BABiP and his average jumps to .290.

Still, what has to be more concerning for the Mets (who have Wright under contract through 2020, during which time they owe him $107 million) is his sudden loss of power. With the exception of 2009, when Citi Field opened, and 2011, when Wright was hurt, he has always provided big-time power numbers. His career slugging percentage was .506 through the end of last year, and a healthy Wright could always be counted on to supply 20-30 home runs and around 100 RBI.

This year Wright's been (mostly) healthy, playing in all but 10 of the Mets' games thus far. but the power numbers haven't been there. He homered on Opening Day, then didn't hit his next bomb until May 10th. He's in the midst of an even longer drought now, homerless since July 11th--a span of 40 games and 167 plate appearances. Wright's endured a massive funk since then, batting .211/.277/.237 with as many GIDP (10) as RBI and, of course, zero home runs. The second half has not been kind to Wright, who's been dogged by injuries but refuses to go on the Disabled List or shut it down for the year.

He's hitting slightly fewer fly balls than he did last year and compared to his career rate, but enough to explain such a massive decline in home runs. What's odd is that only 5.5 percent of Wright's fly balls have left the yard, easily the lowest of his career. The only other time that figure was below 12 percent was 2009, when Wright had to contend with the cavernous dimensions of Citi Field for the first time. But he's been playing there six years now, so the ballpark adjustment is no longer a viable excuse.

It could be that Wright, who's played only one full season over the past three, is simply wearing down at this stage of the year. Perhaps he's been affected by injuries (recent bouts of neck spasms and recurring right shoulder contusions) more than he lets on. Maybe 2014 is just a down year, nothing more than a fluke from which he will bounce back in 2015.

Or maybe this is the beginning of the end of David Wright as a great player. He's done worse against all pitch types this year except change-ups, with his biggest decline coming against fast balls. That would appear to be the sign of a slowing bat, if not an aging player.Wright's routinely crushed fastballs throughout his career, even in his lesser years, but this year he's been horrible against them. Opposing hurlers aren't pitching him any differently as far as what pitch they throw him, but they should be.

The only thing David Wright's done well this year is play above average defense at the hot corner, which combined with his roughly league average bat has helped him stay above replacement level. But the Mets aren't paying him $20 million this year (nearly one-quarter of their Opening Day payroll) to be a merely average player; they're paying him to be a superstar.

And if Wright's superstar days are truly behind him, then the Mets will most certainly regret locking him up through his age-37 season.

Way to Go, Wright

Wright's achieved a lot in the ten years since his first game (BleacherNation)

Yesterday marked the ten-year anniversary of David Wright's major league debut (the Mets lost, of course). So in honor of the Mets' 31 year-old third baseman, here are ten of his most impressive accomplishments:

1--Wright's ranking in Mets franchise history in RBI, hits, doubles, total bases, walks, runs scored, sacrifice flies, times on base, extra base hits, runs created, and strikeouts. They call him Mr. Met for a reason, you know.

2--Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers Wright has won. Wright received both in 2007 and 2008.

3--NL Player of the Week awards; one in 2005, another in 2006 and his most recent in 2011. Also the number of times he's stolen more than 20 bases in a season.

4--Winning teams Wright has played for. Also the number of times he's finished in the top-ten of the NL MVP voting.

5--The number worn by Wright on the back of his jersey (great number, by the way). Also the number of All-Star Games in which he's been National League's starting third baseman.

6--Seasons with at least 20 home runs for Wright, who's currently sitting on 230 for his career.

7--All-Star selections. Wright made the NL squad every year from 2006 through 2010, then again in 2012 and 2013. Also the number of times he's hit better than .300 in a season.

8--Seasons with an OPS over .850/OPS+ over 120.

9--Wright's rank among active players in Power-Speed #. On a related note, also the number of consecutive seasons (not including this one) where Wright's recorded at least 10 homers and 10 steals.

10--Postseason games, all in 2006 when the Mets took the eventual World Series champion Cardinals to the brink in the NLCS. Don't ask Mets fans (or Carlos Beltran) how that one turned out.

Longoria Locked Up, Price is Wright

Earlier this week the Tampa Bay Rays locked up Evan Longoria with a six year, $100 million contract extension that will keep him with the Rays through the next decade.

It's rare to see Tampa's thrifty front office spend so much money at once, but Longoria is worthy investment. Since winning the 2008 AL Rookie of the Year award, he has been arguably the game's top third baseman. In his five years he's batted .276/.361/.516, good for a 137 OPS+, while averaging 26 home runs and 91 RBI per season. He's been worth 29.3 fWAR over that timeframe, making him more valuable than any position player in the sport not named Albert Pujols or Ryan Braun.

Injuries have hampered Longo over the past two seasons. He missed a month in 2011 with an oblique injury and spent half the season on the shelf in 2012. His torn hammy cost his Rays a playoff spot; they were a sub-.500 team with him on the DL but won nearly two-thirds of their games when he wasn't. However, Longoria is entering his age-27 season and poised for a monster season that could net him his first MVP award. Unless the Rays score a big bat this offseason, he will have to pick up the slack for B.J. Upton as well.

On Friday the New York Mets inked David Wright, their franchise cornerstone, to an eight-year deal worth $138 million. The deal represents the largest contract in team history, nudging out their six-year $137.5 million commitment to Johan Santana.

Wright has spent his entire career with the Mets, who drafted him in the first round 11 years ago and watched him develop into the NL's top third baseman. Since debuting in 2004 he's made six All-Star teams, batted .301/.381/.506 and averaged 23 home runs/91 RBI per season. He's been worth 47 fWAR in his career, a total surpassed only by Pujols, Chase Utley, Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera during that time.

Give Credit to Wright for sticking with the Mets. He's endured some lean years and devastating collapses with them, and given their bleak outlook I don't think anyone would have blamed him for abandoning ship. The fan favorite will continue to provide veteran leadership and be a good example for up-and-comers Ike Davis, Lucas Duda, and Ruben Tejada. Hopefully the front office rewards him by bringing back NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey and building around the dynamic duo in the future.

Wright turns 30 later this month, which makes this extension somewhat risky. It's quite possible that we've seen the best of Wright and that he'll only decline from this point forward. He hasn't been a model of consistency lately:

2008: 33 HR 124 RBI .924 OPS
2009: 10 HR  72 RBI  .837 OPS
2010: 29 HR 103 RBI .856 OPS
2011: 14 HR  61 RBI  .771 OPS
2012: 21 HR  93 RBI  .883 OPS

On the bright side, Wright improved his approach at the dish this past year by trimming five percent off his K rate and upping his walk rate to 12.1 %, the highest it's been since his monster 2008 campaign. David Ortiz made similar improvements the past two seasons and has remained an elite hitter well into his thirties, so if Wright sustains his plate discipline he should have several more productive years in front of him.

And ohbytheway, he'll still be making only half as much as the other third baseman in New York, a former superstar by the name of A-Rod.