Showing posts with label Midseason. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Midseason. Show all posts

Sunday, August 2, 2015

Dead Sox Miss Deadline

The Red Sox had a quiet deadline this year (Boston CBS Local)
Despite their enviable position as one of the few sellers in a market flooded with buyers, the Boston Red Sox were unable to accomplish much at this year's trade deadline. All they managed to do was ship Shane Victorino to the Angels for Triple-A utilityman Josh Rutledge and acquire Ryan Cook, a reliever (pictured), from the Oakland A's for a player to be named later or cash.

Boston sold Victorino at his absolute low, at the age of 34 and in his second straight injury-plagued season. After picking up all but $1.1 million of money remaining on his contract, they'll have paid him about $38 million for roughly a full season (185 games). Rutledge is eight years younger but won't have much of an impact, seeing as how he hit just .259/.308/.403 in three years with Colorado and didn't get so much as a plate appearance since being traded to the Angels last December. Cook, 28, also spent much of the year in Triple-A after being demoted in early May. Once an All-Star (in 2012), his peripherals have been in decline ever since.

All in all, it was a very weak take for a last place team that needs all the help it can get. Cook could prove useful if he returns to his 2012-2014 form, but the Red Sox need a lot more than a middle reliever. It's going to take much bigger moves and millions more dollars to fix this bloated mess of a team.

It was especially disappointing that Boston was unable to upgrade its horrendous rotation with so many starting pitchers on the move last week. Granted, pretty much all of them save Cole Hamels are going to be free agents this winter, but then the Red Sox aren't the Royals when it comes to budget constraints. It's high time Boston paid real money to a pitcher that isn't Rick Porcello, and they better be ready to shell out this winter for a Mat Latos or Jeff Samardzija, if not a Price or a Cueto.

Boston's relatively inactive trade deadline was a far cry from last year's roster purge, when Ben Cherington traded eight players leading up to the deadline, including four-fifths of his Opening Day rotation. In breaking up the team that won it all nine months earlier, he was taking the first steps towards rebuilding for a competitive 2015. It hasn't worked out, mainly because all the players Cherington got in return (except Eduardo Rodriguez, who's been a gem) are either no longer with the club (Yoenis Cespedes, Kelly Johnson) or have played like garbage (Joe Kelly, Allen Craig).

To be fair, the Red Sox did not have many desirable trade chips this year. Teams weren't exactly lining up for the services of Mike Napoli, Alejandro De Aza, and Junichi Tazawa. Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval are untradeable given their poor performance and massive contracts. And for whatever reason, the Red Sox once again failed to unload Koji Uehara, a ticking time bomb at age 40 who should have been traded last summer.

Boston's best chance to add appreciable talent was via a three-way trade with the Cubs and Padres, but that deal was declared dead this morning. Deader than their moribund season.

Friday, July 31, 2015

Royals Reel in Big Fish

Cueto can help Kansas City win it all (Kansas City Star)
It was surprising--nay, shocking--that the Royals were the first team to make a major splash leading up to the deadline, landing Johnny Cueto on an otherwise sleepy Sunday. Not just because they already had the best record in the American League and were favored to win the World Series, but because it was totally out of character for an organization known for its restraint whenever superstars become available.

They Royals, because they are a small-market team with an average payroll, rarely generate shockwaves of this magnitude. Their last was the intensely-ridiculed Wil Myers for James Shield swap, which happened nearly three years ago. That the trade actually ended up working out better for Kansas City than it did for Tampa Bay, who promptly dumped Myers on San Diego two years after the fact, is besides the point. The point is that the Royals rarely come up whenever big name players are discussed, largely because they can't afford them. Giving somebody a lengthy nine-figure contract is simply out of the question.

But while that's the case for many teams, most can afford a superstar's final months before he reaches free agency, even the Royals. The issue is no longer salary, then, but the prospects one must give up to net such a big fish. When you're in the playoff hunt and every win counts, it can be worth it to sacrifice tomorrow for today. But for Kansas City, an organization that builds and develops from within, mortgaging the future for a few months of an elite rental was never in their best interest, especially because they were never in contention. Two months of a star player doesn't make a difference when you're in last place.

Well, the Royals are no longer also-rans: they are legitimate contenders, and when you're a contender you have to try to separate yourself from the other contenders. You have to plug your leaks as best you can, whether that means shoring up the bullpen, adding a frontline starter, or bringing in another bat. Stand still, and you run the risk of getting passed.

It's been awhile since the Royals were buyers at the trade deadline--usually they're at the other end of the table--and it felt like a ravenous tiger being let of its cage. They pounced, coming away with Johnny Cueto and Ben Zobrist to kick off a busy week across baseball. They might not be done--they could still use another arm--but they have to be satisfied with impressive haul.

The cost for Cueto was steep--three young lefthanded pitchers--but should also pay big dividends in the short-term. In Cueto, the Royals finally have a legitimate ace to replace James Shields, who departed over the winter via free agency. He's somebody you want to hand the ball when a championship's on the line, because he's someone who's capable of doing what Madison Bumgarner did last October. We're talking about a guy who's had an ERA in the twos each of the past five seasons, who led his league in strikeouts and innings pitched last year, and who won 20 games last year while finishing second to Clay Kershaw in the NL Cy Young vote last year.

That's a stud.
Zobrist was brought in to help replace Alex Gordon's production (Grantland)
Most teams would have been happy to add Cueto and called it a day, but Kansas City didn't stop there. Two days later, in what was only the third-biggest deal of a wild day that saw Troy Tulowitzki (more on him later) and Jonathan Papelbon change hands, the Royals reeled in Ben Zobrist from the flatlining A's.

Even at 34, Zobrist is still one of the most impactful players in the game today. Like Cueto, he's been criminally underrated despite ranking third among position players in fWAR since 2009, behind a couple of guys named Miguel Cabrera and Andrew McCutchen. Also like Cueto, he's going to be a free agent at year's end, meaning he'll likely be playing elsewhere next year.

Even so, two months (hopefully three) of Zobrist and Cueto beats no months of them. Because of Oakland's poor play and a knee injury that limited him to just 14 games through May 25th, Zobrist has flown under the radar even more than usual this year. When healthy, however, he's been his usual self, flashing strong on-base numbers, medium power, and the ability to man multiple positions. A jack of all trades who can hit--think Brock Holt--has real value, not just in the depth charts but on the field everyday. He can fill the void left by Alex Gordon in left field until Gordon returns--possibly by early September--then play wherever Ned Yost needs him.

Royals GM Dayton Moore has made numerous miscalculations during his underwhelming tenure, several of which occurred just this past winter, but it's safe to say trading for Cueto and Zorbist won't join them. On the contrary, this week has to be considered his finest hour. Although his team has the best record in the American League and a cushy lead over a mediocre AL Central, he wasn't content with cruising into the postseason. He knew that his team, as well as they've played, was not going to win the World Series without help, so he went out and got it.

Moore could have just as easily done nothing because hey, if it ain't broke, why fix it? But he looked at his team, saw an aceless rotation and a gaping hole in the lineup, and made the necessary moves to quickly address them. That's his job, sure, but for him to score two huge victories during the busiest week of the baseball year--when everyone and their mother is trying to do something--well, that deserves applause.

I wonder how much of his aggression, if any, can be traced back to Kansas City's Game 7 loss in last year's World Series. To come so close to winning it all and lose, with the tying run on third base, isn't just heartbreaking--it's soul-crushing. How much did that that inspire them to double down, like the Red Sox did after losing Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, in order to get over the hump? The Royals hadn't made the playoffs since 1985 before last year, so they know how rare these opportunities are. They've waited long enough. Their time is now, and they know there's a weak American League out there for the taking. They already had a clear path to the postseason, but now they're better positioned to get back to the World Series, where they'll have another crack at winning their first championship in 30 years.

As seen by this year's All-Star "voting," interest in the Royals has never been higher. Kudos to Moore for trying to capitalize on that by dramatically strengthening his team for the stretch run. Last year won the fans back, and this year's going to keep them there. Sometimes even when you're at the top, you have to reach just a little bit higher.

Monday, July 27, 2015

MLB Midseason Awards

The 2012 Rookies of the Year will likely both be named MVP this year (CBS Sports)
I'm a few weeks late with these, but I wanted to get them in before we get into the dog days of August. All stats through Saturday, July 25th except where otherwise noted.

AL MVP: Mike Trout
A few weeks ago I would have said Josh Donaldson, but Trout's recent hot streak After today's 4-for-4, two-home run performance, he's up to .315-31-64 on the season. The major league leader in home runs, runs, and total bases has fueled the Angels' recent rise to the top of the AL West, where they now reside after today's win and an Astros loss. Already the first player to ever win consecutive All-Star Game MVPs, he seems like a sure bet to win his second straight MVP award as well (which should be his fourth, but I digress).

NL MVP: Bryce Harper
Finally healthy after a pair of injury-plagued seasons delayed his inevitable rise to superstardom, Harper's been healthy and Ruthian in 2015. His .331/.462/.679 (212 OPS+!) looks like it came off Ted Williams's statsheet, and his 27 long balls lead the Senior Circuit. Even if Giancarlo Stanton were healthy and Andrew McCutchen had avoided his slow start, Harper would still be the runaway winner.

AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
The White Sox have been major disappointments this year, but Sale's been as dominant as ever. His 170 strikeouts, 2.31 FIP and 11.5 K/9 rate are all tops in the American League, and his 2.85 ERA and 1.00 WHIP aren't too shabby either. So long as Sale stays healthy, this award is his to lose.

NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer
Despite getting roughed up in his last start at Pittsburgh, Scherzer still holds a sparkling 2.33 ERA (almost a perfect match for his 2.34 FIP) to go along with a 0.83 WHIP and major league best 10.38 K/BB ratio. Read that again, remember that he's leading the National League in innings, and you don't have to think too hard about anyone else (apologies to Johnny Cueto).

AL Rookie of the Year: Carlos Correa
Correa didn't debut until the first week of June was already in the books, but his Yasiel Puig-esque first month in the Show has him on the fast track to win this award. There's been a dearth of power-hitting shortstops lately, but the 20 year-old Correa has already established himself as one of the best sluggers at the position.

NL Rookie of the Year: Joc Pederson
It's a virtual toss-up between Pederson and Kris Bryant, but for now the edge goes to Pederson due to his advantages in playing time, positional difficulty, and park-adjusted production. As impressive as Bryant's first year has been, Pederson's been even better, as evidenced by his 26 point edge in OPS and eight additional home runs. Pederson's also played every game, while Bryant has not (through no fault of his own, but that matters).

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Alex Rodriguez
With his three home-run outburst in Minnesota Saturday, A-Rod now has 23 big flies and 58 RBI to go with a .277/.375/.539 (152 OPS+) slash line. When Rodriguez returned to the field during spring training, most had those numbers on the optimistic end of his full-season projection. In other words, nobody expected him to have those numbers with 40 percent of the season yet to play. On track for his first 30-homer season in five years, he's been healthy and one of the best hitters in the American League--two things nobody thought he'd be in 2015.

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Joey Votto
The former NL MVP has returned to form after an uncharacteristically poor 2014, posting rate stats right in line with his career averages. His power's back after dipping last year, when he managed just six home runs and a .154 ISO (he has 18 bombs and a .218 ISO this year). The Reds are struggling again, but at least this time around Votto's not the reason why.

AL Team: Kansas City Royals
Kansas City has proved last year's magical run was no fluke, as they currently sport the best record in the American League and second-best in baseball with pretty much the same team and formula. All-Star (mainly Omar Infante) jokes aside, the reigning AL champs are a very well-rounded team, especially now that they have a true ace in Johnny Cueto. They could still use another starting pitcher, but with Detroit fading and Minnesota due for regression they're going to run away with their division regardless.

NL Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Despite losing Adam Wainwright for the season and enduring slow starts and/or injuries to numerous regulars, the Cardinals have been far and away the best team in baseball this year. Having won nearly two-thirds of their games thus far, they're in firm control of the NL Central and own the biggest divisional lead in baseball. With Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina and Jason Heyward finally rounding into form, look for St. Louis to make a run at 100 wins as long as its pitching holds.


Friday, July 10, 2015

Dozier, Kershaw for Final Vote

Image courtesy of Sporting News
Today is the final day to vote in the All-Star Game's Final Vote, which allows the fans one last chance to send another Kansas City Royal (um, I mean player) from each league to next Tuesday's Midsummer Classic in Cincinnati.

With Brett Gardner, one of the five American League candidates, already getting the call to replace Alex Gordon, who will miss eight weeks with a strained groin, the AL field has already been reduced to four, which makes the voting somewhat easier. All American Leaguers are position players, which makes comparisons easier, but hardly easy as they all play different positions (one outfielder, a second baseman, a third baseman, and a shortstop).

Not surprisingly, the National League ballot is dominated by pitching. There are three starting pitchers up for election, all of whom are having fantastic years and all of whom just strengthened their cases with outstanding efforts this week. They're easy to compare, but there's also a closer and a shortstop throwing a wrench into the debate. Given that there are entirely too many relief pitchers named as All-Stars every year, I can tell you right now the closer won't be getting my vote and shouldn't be getting yours, either.

Surprisingly, this ballot is devoid of first basemen, who typically show up on these things due to the plethora of players having strong offensive seasons at the position. I'm not at all surprised by their omission on the AL ballot, as the only worthy candidates were Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols (not the still-adjusting Jose Abreu, shockingly), but there absolutely should have been a place for Joey Votto in the NL.

Anyways, on to the analysis. Candidates for each league are presented in alphabetical order, and I have included their WAR totals (Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs) in parentheses besides their names. All WAR really shows is that most of these guys have been remarkably similar in terms of value up to this point, which makes the decisions that much tougher.
Gardner is going to his first All-Star Game (River Ave Blues)
American League

Xander Bogaerts (2.6 bWAR/2.3 fWAR)
Bogaerts has been one of the few bright spots on an otherwise disappointing Red Sox roster. He's also been, according to FanGraphs, the best shortstop in the American League. Granted, that's not saying a lot when Jose Iglesias, Brad Miller, and Alcides Escobar are your closest competition (and Carlos Correa has barely played a month), but someone's gotta be number one. He's hitting over .300 and flashing improved defense at short, though his average is largely empty as he's managed just three home runs and 16 walks to date. Bogaerts should go by virtue of being the best at his position outside of Brandon Crawford, but he's simply not the best on this ballot. Despite being a big Red Sox fan who does not want Brock Holt to be my team's sole All-Star, I must pass.

Yoenis Cespedes (2.9 bWAR/2.8 fWAR)
Cespedes has been outstanding in his Detroit debut, making Ben Cherington look foolish for giving him and two minor leaguers up for the dreadful remains of what was once Rick Porcello. The Cuban slugger is on pace for his best season since his now-forgotten stellar rookie year. He still hasn't figured out this thing called patience, but that's fine so long as he keeps hitting close to .300 with top-shelf pop (he's third in the AL in doubles and fifth in extra base hits). The hard-hitting outfielder's power is second to a fellow candidate's, however, making him an indefensible choice in light of his .318 OBP.

AL Brian Dozier (3.2 bWAR/fWAR)
An All-Star snub last year, Dozier was again shut out this year despite being the best player on what was a first place team for much of the first half. The Twins second baseman has been one of the league's best power sources, pacing the AL in extra base hits and ranking second in doubles (one behind Jason Kipnis), fifth in total bases, and tenth in home runs and slugging. He's also second in runs with 64--as many as Mike Trout and just one behind Josh Donaldson for the league lead. Dozier has also made an impact on the bases, stealing nine bags in a dozen attempts, and is playing well defensively, leading the league at his position in range factor, assists, and double plays turned while placing second in fielding percentage. Put it all together, and you have the second-best second baseman in baseball. I think we have a winner.

Mike Moustakas (2.7 bWAR/2.1 fWAR)
Absolutely not. We already have enough Royals going to the All-Star Game. Plus he's come crashing back to earth since his fluky April, batting .276/.329/.397 since. Sorry. but that's not an All-Star third-baseman, unless we want to invite Pablo Sandoval, too.

Vote: Dozier
Dozier deserves to be an All-Star (Twin Cities)
NL National League

Johnny Cueto (2.9 bWAR/2.6 fWAR)
Cueto is coming off his best start of the season, a two-hit shutout of the Nationals in which he struck out a season-high 11 batters. Last year's NL Cy Young runner-up has been phenomenal again this year, posting a 2.61 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 5.29 K/BB ratio to date. The numbers say Cueto is worthy of his second straight All-Star nod, and it would be nice to see the hosting Reds get another representative.

Jeurys Familia (1.9 bWAR/0.6 fWAR)
As great as Familia has been for the Mets, you can toss him out immediately. The last thing the All-Star Game needs is more relief pitchers.

Clayton Kershaw (2.3 bWAR/3.7 fWAR)
The reigning NL MVP and Cy Young winner has slipped a bit only compared to last year's historic numbers. In a vacuum, though, his stats can only be considered otherworldly. With an ML-leading 160 strikeouts in 123 innings, he's currently whiffing nearly a dozen batters per nine innings and is on pace to threaten 300 K's for the season. He also boasts a 2.85 ERA, 2.40 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, and 5.93 K/BB ratio, all of which are quite impressive. Though Cueto's numbers are slightly better, Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball over the past five years, and you can't have the All-Star Game without him. Furthermore, he's pitched better than his ERA and 6-6 record would indicate.

Carlos Martinez (2.5 bWAR/1.5 fWAR)
The 23 year-old Cardinal has been sensational in his first season as a full-time starter, going 10-3 with a 2.52 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning in the first half. He's been incredibly dominant lately, allowing just nine earned runs over his past ten starts and providing ace-level production in Adam Wainwright's absence. He doesn't have the name recognition or mind-blowing peripherals of Cueto and Kershaw, which is why I'm going to pass, but there's no shame in finishing behind those two.

Troy Tulowitzki (1.5 bWAR/1.2 fWAR)
It's been a strange year for Tulo, who's taken a notable dive in his age-30 season. His power is down, strikeouts are up, and plate discipline has disappeared. His formerly Gold Glove defense has also deteriorated. On the bright side, he's hitting well over .300 and has hit safely in 33 of his past 34 games, including his last 21 straight--a major league season-high. More importantly the injury prone shortstop has stayed on the field, missing just eight Rockies games to date. If he were in the American League he'd be a no-brainer, but against the Senior Circuit's more formidable field he doesn't quite make the cut. It also must be said that his numbers would be much more impressive if he didn't play half his games in Coors Field.

Vote: Like last year's AL Cy Young race between Felix Hernandez and Corey Kluber, it's a virtual toss-up between Cueto and Kershaw. Both have their arguments--Cueto pitches for the hometown team but Kershaw has the better reputation, and their performance has been almost indistinguishable. Both are worthy and I'm sure both will get to go once somebody inevitably backs out or decides he's unavailable to pitch. I simply can't fathom an All-Star Game without Kershaw, who's pitched tremendously this year and my gut tells me has been more dominant (Cueto's benefiting from a .229 BABiP), so that's why I'm going with him.

Cueto's numbers are a bit better, but Kershaw's the bigger star (Rant Sports)

Tuesday, July 7, 2015

Brock Star All-Star?

Holt has had an All-Star impact on the Sox this year (CBS Boston)
If you had predicted before the season that a) the Red Sox would have only one All-Star representative and b) it would be Brock Holt, you might have been committed to an insane asylum shortly thereafter.

For starters, Holt lacked the track record and name recognition of more talented (and expensive) teammates such as David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Pablo Sandoval, and Hanley Ramirez. An everyday player for the first time in 2014, Holt had tailed off mightily in the second half, posting a .548 OPS after the All-Star Break. Holt had been exposed and worn down, making his All-Star caliber first half (.834 OPS) look like a flash in the pan. As such, he seemed better-suited for a bench role and did not crack the team's Opening Day lineup. Finding steady playing time, let alone standing out on Boston's star-studded roster, seemed unlikely.

And yet, the 27 year-old Holt has find a way to do both. He's appeared in 66 of the team's 84 games to date, becoming a regular in John Farrell's lineup card. That's largely a byproduct of the versatility that has allowed him to play every non-pitching and catching position, though I'm sure he'd do either if you asked.

Of course, Farrell has to find a way to get Holt into the lineup everyday because he's been arguably Boston's best player. His 3.1 bWAR rank second on the team only to Mookie Betts (FanGraphs has him third after Betts and Clay Buchholz), and his .383 OBP leads the Sox. He's 10th in the AL in bWAR, seventh in OBP, and ninth in triples with four.

It's not just his elite production which makes him among the team's most valuable players to date: it's that versatility. His ability to play anywhere and everywhere gives Farrell the flexibility to rest a different regular every night if he so chooses. The breathers players receive while Holt holds down their positions can at least partially explain why seven Sox have played at least 80 percent of the team's games thus far. The best medicine for a long baseball season may, in fact, be Brock Holt.

Holt also acts as an emergency dressing, capable of filling in when players inevitably go down. He's already filled the void left by injured All-Stars such as Shane Victorino in right and now Dustin Pedroia at second. His all-around abilities ensure a seamless transition when a player is lost for an extended period of time, preventing Farrell from relying on an inferior replacement and lessening the need for Ben Cherington to seek help on the trade market or prematurely promote a minor leaguer. Who knows how many nights of sleep Holt has saved for his superiors?

Not only has he been one of Boston's best players, but he also brings his best everyday regardless of where Farrell plays him or slots him in the batting order. A true sparkplug, he provides tremendous energy and enthusiasm on a daily basis, which is truly invaluable to a slumping, frustrated group like the Red Sox. He's great for morale, and you can't ask for more out of a player.
As good as Holt has been, Betts (and Buchholz) have been better (Buffalo Sox)
Now for the real matter at hand: as Boston's lone All-Star representative, has Holt--as the title suggests--been Boston's best player thus far? Did Ned Yost, manager of the AL squad, make the right call in selecting him?

The numbers say no. B-R has Betts leading the Sox in WAR, while FanGraphs has Buchholz pacing the club with Betts second. Two Red Sox are batting over .300, and neither one is named Holt. His two home runs are one fewer than Alejandro De Aza has hit since joining the Sox, even though De Aza has been with the team only a month. Holt leads the team in OBP and positions played and...that's it.

Betts would have been a better choice. Not only has the 22 year-old phenom been Boston's most exciting player, but he's also been unequivocally better than Holt. His OPS (.799) is virtually the same as Holt's (.807), but he's maintained it over 99 additional plate appearances. In fact, Betts leads the team in games played as well as plate appearances, plus hits, doubles, steals, and total bases. He's also second on the team in RBI despite seeing the lion's share of his at-bats at the top of the order and the rest towards the bottom when he was briefly moved down. Not surprisingly, he leads the Sox in both baserunning and offensive value.

Even more impressively, Betts has done all this not only as a second-year player, but also while manning center field in all but four of Boston's games. No major leaguer has played more games in center than Betts, who ranks fourth in the bigs in putouts and assists. He's been one of the league's smoothest center fielders despite coming up as a second baseman, only to be converted following Jacoby Ellsbury's defection to New York.

One could also make the case that Clay Buchholz, who just pitched the team's first complete game of the season, was more deserving of the honor. A two-time All-Star (most recently in 2013), Buchholz has re-established himself as team ace in the wake of Jon Lester's exit and a miserable 2014. He hasn't just been the best pitcher on the Red Sox: he's been one of the best pitchers in the American League. He's currently in the top 10 in pitcher bWAR, innings pitched, strikeouts, walk rate, and K/BB ratio. He's also flashing the league's lowest home run rate--truly impressive considering he pitches half his games in front of the Green Monster--and fourth-best FIP.

Dustin Pedroia (.306/.367/.452) would have been a better choice, too, if not for his hamstring strain, but his injury and strong competition at the keystone (Jason Kipnis, Jose Altuve, Brian Dozier) ruined his chances. Pedroia, 31, is also much more accomplished, having made the All-Star team four times before to go along with his Rookie of the Year, MVP, two World Series rings, and four Gold Gloves. Now in his 10th season, he is a fixture in Boston and well-known by baseball fans across the world for his towering success in spite of his diminutive stature.

And what about Xander Bogaerts, maybe the best and clearly one of the top two shortstops in the American League this year (the other being onetime teammate Jose Iglesias)? It's possible the fans will elect him in the Final Vote (consider this my plug!), but that seems unlikely given that a Royal--Mike Moustakas--is on the ballot alongside him.

So while Holt was not a bad choice, there are several Red Sox who have been better than him this year. One of them should be making the trip to Cincinnati next week instead.

Friday, July 3, 2015

Red Sox Midseason Report

2015 hasn't gone as hoped for Sandoval and the Sox (Boston Herald)
With last night's 12-6 romp of the Toronto Blue Jays, the first half of the 2015 Red Sox season is officially in the books. The results--last place, seven games below .500 and six out of first--have been underwhelming, to say the least.

It's been a difficult year for the Red Sox, who were favored to win the American League at the season's outset. Now, they find themselves with more losses than every AL team except the snakebitten Oakland A's. A season that began with so much optimism has quickly degraded into a summer of gloom and doom, causing frustrated fans and media to turn on the team well before the season's halfway point.

Whereas last year's long march to last place was relatively scandal-free, this year's slog has gotten ugly. Pitching coach Juan Nieves was fired in early May, barely a month into the season and much to the rotation's disappointment (Boston was allowing 5.14 runs per game prior to his dismissal and has let up 4.45 R/G since). Wade Miley had a meltdown in the dugout, Pablo Sandoval was caught using Instagram during a mid-game bathroom break, and several veterans have been ejected recently for arguing balls and strikes.

Moreover, this is a team that has grown sick of losing, to the point where it's becoming visibly frustrated. Most everyone has experienced an extended slump by now, and many veterans are mired in down seasons. Struggling players can put on a happy face when the team does well, but when it doesn't they blame themselves and take it personally. Oftentimes this leads to pressing, which only makes things worse.

Accordingly the clubhouse, while not toxic as it was in 2012, does not seem like a fun place to be. Gone are many of the bearded characters (Jonny Gomes, David Ross) that made 2013 such an enjoyable ride. In their place is a random collection of the lazy, disinterested, and egotistical, not to mention expensive. Should the Red Sox fail to pick it up in the second half, John Farrell will likely be shown the door.

It's hard to believe how quickly this season has gone south for the Sox, who were in first place for much of April. Eight days after losing control of first (probably for good), they'd fallen all the way to last place, where they've toiled for the last month or so. Since going 9-5 to open the season, Boston's gone 28-39. Bad luck and injuries aren't to blame, as they have a winning record in one-run games and have remained fairly intact except for behind the plate. They just flat-out stink, having been blown out (losing by five or more runs) nearly twice as often as they've routed opponents and getting outscored by 45 runs on the season..
As expected, pitching has been a problem for Boston (Boston Globe)
Where did the Red Sox go wrong? Last summer seems like a good place to start, when they traded away four-fifths of their starting rotation--a rotation that won the World Series the previous fall and was actually pitching pretty well at the time (but nobody was hitting). None of those trades have panned out, least of all the one that sent John Lackey to St. Louis for Joe Kelly and Allen Craig--both of whom are now in Pawtucket. No, Boston wouldn't be better off if Jake Peavy and Felix Doubront were still around, but they'd probably be at least .500 if they still had Lackey and Jon Lester.

Boston's busy trade deadline was followed by a winter of big spending, highlighted by massive contracts for Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and Yoan Moncada, among others. The struggles of Ramirez and Sandoval have drawn heavy criticism, but they're not the only well-paid personnel failing to play up to their contracts. Eight of Boston's ten highest-paid players, who are earning nearly $116 million between them (as much as an average team's payroll), have altogether provided roughly replacement level production: hardly money well spent.

Even worse is that the Red Sox prematurely extended several players before they had to and are already paying the price for it. Ben Cherington inexplicably gave Rick Porcello and Wade Miley multi-year contract extensions before either one ever threw a pitch for the Sox, which has proven disastrous. Before last year, David Ortiz secured a team option for next year (and potentially the year after) that will vest by summer's end (health permitting), which burdens Boston with a declining 40 year-old DH who can't hit lefties. And Dustin Pedroia, who turns 32 later this summer, still has six years remaining on his contract after this one--a scary proposition in light of his recent injury history and the rapid declines of Chase Utley and Robinson Cano.

The Red Sox have not invested wisely, which is why they're one of the worst teams in baseball despite having the sport's fifth-highest payroll. With many of the aforementioned players still in the first year of their deals, it would be premature to label them sunk costs, but the early returns have not been good.

As such, Boston's newcomers have not improved the team as much as pundits predicted. What do you get after adding a bunch of expensive, replacement-level players to a last place team? A (more expensive) last place team. Cherington bought new parts, but they didn't fix what was broken.

And when you lose 91 games, as Boston did last year, it's because there's a lot broken. That much is evident again this year. Head over to FanGraphs, and you'll see the Sox rank in or just outside the bottom 10 in offense, baserunning, defense, and pitching. That, ladies and gentlemen, is a bad baseball team. You can be bad at one or two of those things and still win/fix them by October, but not all of them midway through the year. There's no quick fix for a bad lineup, pitching staff, and defense. Barring a remarkable July, Boston should be sellers at the trade deadline.
That look from Junichi Tazawa pretty much sums it up (Mass Live)
The Red Sox have begun to play better lately, however, perhaps showing signs of better things to come in the second half. Since bottoming out with a seven-game losing streak in mid-June, Boston has gone 10-6, its best stretch of baseball since April. The pitching has calmed down, several hitters appear to be turning it around, and the team as a whole appears to have jelled.

The offense, which pounded out a season-high 19 hits last night, has slowly but surely come to life. Ortiz has returned from the dead, putting one of his patented painfully slow starts behind him with eight home runs over the past three weeks. Mookie Betts and Sandoval have caught fire after a disappointing first two months, and Xander Bogaerts is getting better every day. Brock Holt has proved that last year's success was no fluke, and Pedroia was having his best season in years before falling victim to the injury bug.

The pitching, mercifully, has also started to come around. Clay Buchholz has stayed healthy, providing the bounceback season Boston desperately needed from him. He's on quite the roll, with a 2.13 ERA over his past nine starts. Eduardo Rodriguez has been electric since debuting at the end of May, emerging as the team's best starter after Buchholz. Miley's quietly turned his season around, too, going 7-3 with a 3.41 ERA since May 9th.

In addition to keeping the team in games, better starting pitching also helps prevent Boston's shaky middle relief from being exposed. The back of the bullpen has been stellar, with Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa providing their usual dominance at the end of games. Alexi Ogando's been a revelation as well, but they're the only Sox relievers with an ERA under 3.70. The less Farrell has to use Craig Breslow, Matt Barnes, and Robbie Ross, the better.

So on the eve of the Fourth of July, Boston's season is far from dead. Returning from a 5-2 road trip to an eight-game homestand that will take them into the All-Star Break, the Sox are poised to continue their recent success and build some momentum going into the second half.

The Red Sox have reached a critical juncture in their season. They're at a crossroads, and their performance over the next four weeks will determine how they'll fare for the rest of 2015. If Boston plays well in July, one would expect the Sox to be aggressive at the deadline in the hopes of gearing up for a potential playoff push. The AL East is so tightly packed that a few good weeks would vault the Sox right back into contention.

Should Boston continue to sputter, however, then all bets are off. Cherington has made major roster shakeups in both of the team's failed seasons during his tenure, and if he feels that 2015 is a lost cause then he's going to start building for 2016. So if the Sox don't pull it together by the end of July, there's a good chance many of them will be gone come August 1st.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Red Sox Pitching First Half Review 2014

It's really too bad the Red Sox haven't been able to hit a lick this year, because even if they were an average offensive team they'd probably be leading the AL East right now thanks to their stellar pitching.

This is the rarest of Red Sox teams in that their pitching's been pretty good, but their lineup has stunk to high heaven (reflected in the fact that both their All-Stars were hurlers). The staff as a whole has the fourth-best ERA in the American League--not too shabby for a team playing half its games at Fenway--and the circuit's fifth-most strikeouts. Jon Lester and John Lackey have formed a strong 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, Jake Peavy hsn't been nearly as bad as his 1-8 record suggests, and Clay Buchholz seems to be rounding into form. For the most part the bullpen has been fantastic, none better than a certain Japanese closer pictured above.

Here's my take on some of the key Red Sox pitchers this year along with their first half grades in parentheses:

SP Jon Lester (A+)
Lester's postseason success seems to have carried over into the regular season, which is shaping up to be the best of his career (in a contract year, no less). His 2.65 ERA is a full run lower than his career 3.66 mark and his 2.61 FIP means it's no fluke. The 30 year-old has reversed four straight years of declining strikeout rates by fanning more than a batter per inning for the first time since 2010. With 134 K's he's already more than three quarters of the way to last year's total of 177. He's showed better command of the strike zone as well, slashing his walk rate to a career-low 2.0 BB/9, which in concert with his improved K rate has resulted in a 4.62 K/BB ratio (it was 2.56 from 2010 through 2013). Lester's also limited his mistakes and thus the long ball, posting the lowest home run rate of his career. Mix it all together and Lester's been one of the ten best pitchers in the American League this year, a worthy All-Star and Cy Young candidate with an ERA 35 percent better than the average pitcher after adjustments for league and park. Lester's going to get paid this offseason, but will the Red Sox be the ones footing the bill?

SP John Lackey (B+)
Lackey's strong first half proved that last year's unexpected return to form was no fluke. The 35 year-old has been terrific in his fifth season with the Sox, compiling a 3.79 ERA, 3.53 FIP and 3.89 K/BB ratio in his 123 and a-third innings. He didn't miss a start, which could explain why he faded at the end of the first half. His ERA ballooned from 2.96 on June 22nd to 3.79 by the break as he got beaten around by the Mariners, Yankees in Orioles in three successive starts. Though he earned the win, Lackey labored through his final start of the half against a weak Astros lineup, walking five and needing 117 pitches to get through six innings. Hopefully the break will help him recharge and get back on track.

SP Clay Buchholz (D-)
The ace of Boston's staff last year has been their least effective starter this year. True to form, Buchholz landed on the Disabled List in late May with a hyperextended left knee and missed a full month. At the time he had a 7.02 ERA, much like how he had an equally disgusting 7.19 ERA at the end of May in 2012. Buchholz pitched much better over the final four months of that season, trimming his ERA to 4.22 by the end of September before the Yankees shelled him in his final start of the year. A similar turnaround appears to be underway this year, with his four starts since coming off the DL producing much better results. His pre-and post-DL splits couldn't be more night and day:

Through May 26th: 7.02 ERA 1.98 WHIP .339/.403/.502 .384 BABiP 63% strikes 7% swinging strikes
Since May 26th: 2.73 ERA 0.71 WHIP .197/.215/.356  .197 BABiP 67% strikes 12% swinging strikes

Buchholz has returned to form since returning from the DL, striking out 23 against one lone walk in 29 and two-thirds innings of 2.73 ERA-ball. His most recent turn was easily his best of the season, a complete game three-hit shutout in Houston where he whiffed 12 Astros and walked none. Expect Buchholz to continue his run of success in the second half.

SP Jake Peavy (D+)
Poor Peavy. I really don't have anything else to add.

SP Felix Doubront (F)
Doubront was really struggling before going on the DL with a strained left (throwing) shoulder. Rather than continue to improve as he did last year, he appeared to be taking a major step back. In two of his ten starts he couldn't even make it out of the third inning, and in two others he failed to finish the fifth. After spending a month on the Disabled List he has been removed from the starting rotation, though his bullpen adventures have been just as difficult. His 5.06 ERA in three appearances out of the 'pen is only marginally better than his 5.19 ERA as a starter this season. What's even more frustrating is that Doubront showed for a long time last year that he could pitch well at the major league level. It's clear that he's broken, but can he be fixed? Hopefully once he adapts to his relief role he'll be able to regain his confidence.

SP Brandon Workman (D)
Workman was used primarily as a reliever last year, his first in the majors, but has since transitioned to a starter in his sophomore campaign. He made the Opening Day roster and pitched well in his three relief appearances early in the season, but was demoted to Pawtucket to gain more experience as a starting pitcher. Though he fared terribly with a 5.36 ERA in eight starts, the seasoning proved worthwhile when he was recalled in late May to replace Doubront in the rotation. The 25 year-old has been merely serviceable in that role with a 4.50 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 1.89 K/BB ratio in his eight starts this year. That's fine for a fifth starter stand-in.

SP Rubby De La Rosa (A-)
De La Rosa, who you might recall came over from the Dodgers in Boston's infamous roster purge two summers ago, pitched sparingly for the Sox last year, making 11 relief appearances and zero starts in the final two months of the season. He failed to distinguish himself in Triple-A (4.26 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) and during his cup of coffee, yielding 15 hits and seven earned runs in his 11 and a third innings of work.

This year has been a different story entirely for the 25 year-old. Though he began the season with Pawtucket, he was called up in late May when Buchholz made his annual trip to the Disabled List. His first start in a Red Sox uniform--versus the Rays at Fenway Park on May 31st--was a gem. De La Rosa twirled seven shutout innings, allowing just four hits (three of them singles) and no walks while striking out eight as Boston cruised to a 7-1 victory and sixth win in a row.

De La Rosa remained in the rotation until Buchholz returned in late June, delivering a pair of mediocre starts and a pair of great ones. He was demoted upon Buchholz's return, only to be summoned again a few weeks later with John Farrell needing a spot starter against the White Sox. De La Rosa didn't dazzle but pitched well enough (three earned runs in five innings) to keep Boston in the game, a game they eventually won. He takes a 2.89 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 4.13 K/BB ratio into the second half, albeit in the small sample size of 37 and a third innings. He's not this good, as his 3.75 FIP will tell you, but it's encouraging to see him performing so well as a starter, better than anyone could have possibly expected. Whether in the rotation or as a trade chip, De La Rosa should be provide some value going forward.

CL Koji Uehara (A+)
The Red Sox don't take leads late into games very often, but when they do they can be sure that those leads are safe in the hands of Uehara. As expected, Uehara has come back to earth a bit following his fantastic and historic 2013, but he's still been one of the best closers in the game hands-down. In addition to converting 18 of his 20 save chances, the first-time All-Star owns a 57/6 K/BB ratio, 1.65 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. He's ran into some hiccups over the past three weeks or so, with both his blown saves coming in that time as his ERA has jumped from a microscopic 0.57 on June 17th to 1.65 at the break. As much as it pains me to say it, the Red Sox must trade their 39 year-old star closer, a free agent at season's end. More on that to come.

Rest of the 'pen: Burke Badenhop, Andrew Miller and Junichi Tazawa have all been outstanding. Free agent addition Edward Mujica has been the opposite of that, as has Craig Breslow. Chris Capuano, another free agent signing, also struggled mightily and was DFA'd because of it along with Grady Sizemore and A.J. Pierzynski.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Let Lester Leave?

Lester wants to stay, but does Boston want to pay him? (MSN FoxSports)

With the All-Star Game behind us and the July 31st trade deadline rapidly approaching, the last-place Boston Red Sox are one of the few major league teams in position to sell. They have two weeks to determine who's going to be a part of their club moving forward and who isn't. If a player falls into the latter category then Ben Cherington must explore trading him for prospects, and with most teams still in the playoff hunt there should be plenty of suitors with offers on the table (unless it's Stephen Drew you're trying to shop, in which case no thanks).

With that in mind, the Sox need to figure out what they're going to do about free agent-to-be Jon Lester. Because if the Red Sox aren't going to reach deep into their pockets to pony up what it will take to re-sign Lester, they need to deal him so they aren't left empty-handed when he signs somewhere else next winter.

Lester has repeatedly stated that he wants to stay in Boston with the team that drafted him in 2002 and won a pair of World Series with him in 2007 and 2013. He doesn't like change, doesn't want to leave, and would be willing to take a small discount to keep his socks red.

But Jon Lester's not an idiot. He knows what he's worth, and it's considerably more than Boston's initial $70 million offer. The three-time All-Star could probably get twice that on the open market given his age, durability, and lengthy track record of consistent success. The Red Sox don't have to (and shouldn't) blow him away with Felix Hernandez/Justin Verlander money, but they need to up the ante closer to Matt Cain territory.

Lester's made his intentions known, leaving the ball's in Boston's court. If Cherington doesn't feel his ace is worth a lengthy nine-figure investment, that's well within his right. Lester's going to be 31 next year, his velocity's down and his strikeout rate had declined in the four seasons prior to this one. While still a good pitcher, he's not irreplaceable, especially given the abundance of young pitching talent coming up through the Red Sox pipeline. Letting Lester go would open up an opportunity for a Henry Owings or Anthony Ranaudo. And if the Sox truly are a few years away from contending, then it doesn't make much sense to sign Lester so they can be an 80-win team rather than a 75-win team.

Like with any decision, there are pros and cons and risk that come with signing, or not signing, Jon Lester to a fat contract. The Red Sox have a little more time to weigh their options, but they must make up their minds soon. Because if they don't trade Lester and he leaves in a few months, they're going to be very, very sorry.

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

My 2014 NL All-Star Starting Lineup

Why is Gomez batting ninth when he's a superb leadoff hitter? (NYPost)
With the All-Star Game kicking off soon, I just wanted to give my two cents on the National League lineup after taking a look at the AL's last night. Mike Matheny has a great team here, one that's better than the American League squad on paper (both have eight righthanded hitters, one notices, but I have to admit I'm very puzzled by the bottom half of his order:

1. CF Andrew McCutchen--Cutch's combination of elite on-base skills (he leads the league in walks and ranks second in OB) and speed (15 steals without being caught yet) makes him the ideal leadoff hitter for this event. Terrific power too.

2. RF Yasiel Puig--Offensively he's just a lighter version of McCutchen. Blessed with great power, speed, and on-base ability, Puig's a pretty good table-setter.

3. SS Troy Tulowitzki--Tradition says the best hitter bats third, and there's no arguing that Tulowitzki hasn't been the best hitter in baseball this year. Tulo leads the majors in batting, OBP, and OPS in addition to having the NL's highest slugging percentage and most home runs.

4. 1B Paul Goldschmidt--Good spot for last year's National League home run and RBI leader.

5. DH Giancarlo Stanton--Can't wait to see what he has in store after the bombs he hit last night.

6. 3B Aramis Ramirez--A real headscratcher seeing as how he's clearly having a worse season than the guys filling the bottom two spots in the order.

7. 2B Chase Utley--See Ramirez, Aramis.

8. C Jonathan Lucroy--You're in good shape when you've got Lucroy, a .315/.385/.494 hitter this year, batting eighth.

9. LF Carlos Gomez--Typically bats leadoff, so hitting ninth has gotta be a real curveball for him. He's way too good to hit ninth though, a spot that should be reserved for Utley or Ramirez.

SP Adam Wainwright--Would have rather seen Clayton Kershaw, but Wainwright's not a bad consolation prize.

Here's how I would have assembled my lineup:

1. Gomez
2. McCutchen
3. Tulowitzki
4. Goldschmidt
5. Stanton
6. Puig
7. Lucroy
8. Utley
9. Ramirez

Stack the speed at the top with power and OBP throughout. Let Gomez, a natural leadoff hitter, bat first. Thought about Stanton at cleanup. Gotta stick the older, weaker hitters at the bottom.

My Prediction: National League wins 4-2.