Home Run Derby Teams

American League
Robinson Cano (Captain)
Last year's AL captain is back for more, hoping to erase any memory of his homerless performance at in Kansas City last summer (much to the delight of Royals fans who mercilessly booed him for omitting Billy Butler from the squad). With his picture-perfect swing, there's no way he comes up empty again. His 21 long balls have him tied for seventh in the Junior Circuit with Adrian Beltre and put him on pace to soar past his career high of 33, which he set in 2012.

Chris Davis
The major league home run leader has already left the yard 36 times in 2013, homering once every 9.4 at-bats. That puts him on track to threaten Roger Maris's "real" single season home run record of 61, disregarding the enhanced figures compiled by Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds. The way he's been hitting lately he'll probably steamroll everyone and mash his way to victory.

Yoenis Cespedes
Few players have more raw power than Cespedes, who belted 23 big flies as a rookie last year and has 15 so far this season. He can hit the ball out of a canyon, and his home run totals would be more impressive if he played somewhere else besides the Coliseum, where he's hit just five home runs this year (one every 25.8 at-bats there compared to one per 17.5 everywhere else). With that in mind, I expect the slugging sophomore to put on a show and make a serious run at this year's trophy.

Prince Fielder
Only two men have ever won multiple home run derbies: Ken Griffey Jr. and Cecil Fielder's son. If the reigning champ wins again this year, he'll become the first man to win the event three times. Fielder's having a down year (for him), but that didn't stop him from winning the competition last year. .

Notable Absences: Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, David Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera

National League
David Wright (Captain)
Mr. Met is here more for the hometown fans than for his home run hitting abilities; he has the lowest home run total of the contestants with 13. Citi Field isn't doing Wright any favors (just three circuit drives there this year), but he's always been more of a gap hitter anyways. He hasn't topped 30 bombs in a season since 2008 and averaged just 18 per year since then. Wright was runner-up to Ryan Howard in 2006, so he has the potential to turn it on so long as he doesn't try too hard to impress the fans.

Bryce Harper
If Harper's electrifying exhibition at Tropicana Field is any indication, he's going to shine in his first derby appearance. The 20 year-old phenom isn't phased by the spotlight and could be primed for a coming out party a la Josh Hamilton's '08 performance at the Stadium.

Michael Cuddyer
A curious selection by Wright, who has defended his choice by pointing to the roots he shares with Cuddyer. With 15 home runs and the league's ninth best AB/HR rate he's not a bad choice, but I would've preferred to see Wright select a power hitter of higher stature like Jay Bruce, Domonic Brown or Justin Upton. I'd bet most fans aren't tuning in to see Cuddyer, who's not exactly a household name and has just one 30 homer season on his resume. I think he's the least likely to win and has early exit written all over him.

Pedro Alvarez
The NL equivalent of Davis, Alvarez broke out last year and is on his way to an even better season this year. He owns the best AB/HR ratio in in the Senior Circuit and ranks second home runs with 24, just one fewer than Carlos Gonzalez, the man he's replacing. An all-or-nothing hitter, Alvarez has accumulated 108 strikeouts while knocking nearly one-third of his fly balls over the fence.

Notable Absences: Bruce, Ryan Braun, Giancarlo Stanton

My pick: Cespedes over Harper

13 Stats I Can't Believe

1. The Seattle Mariners rank third among AL teams in home runs. For that, they can thank Raul Ibanez (more to come on that tomorrow)
2. The Red Sox have already set a franchise record for most wins before the All-Star break (58 and counting). They own the best record in baseball and are on pace for 99 wins
3. John Lackey has a 2.78 ERA for said Red Sox, but only a 7-6 record to show for it
4. With 39 doubles, Manny Machado is on pace to tie Earl Webb's single season record for two-baggers, set all the way back in 1931
5. R.A. Dickey leads the major leagues in earned runs
6. Miguel Cabrera has 30 home runs but is not leading the American League (thanks to Chris Davis)
7. The reigning World Series champs are eight games below .500 
8. The Braves lead the NL East despite getting a whole lot of nothing from B.J. Upton and Jason Heyward
9. Joey Votto, possibly the best pure hitter in baseball, has only 41 RBI (putting him on pace for 76). I know RBI is an overrated/context dependent stat, but it still blows my mind
10. Shin-Soo Choo has been hit by 20 pitches. Ouch
11. Adam Wainwright has issued just 14 walks in over 140 innings of work. Talk about a control freak!
12. Justin Verlander's 3.71 ERA and 1.39 WHIP seem way too high for a pitcher of his caliber
13. Starlin Castro, pegged as a future batting champ by many, is batting a paltry .241

Chris Davis Breaks Through (Again)

Davis has already matched his home run and RBI totals from last season

2012 was Chris Davis's breakout year. The 26 year-old slugger, labeled a bust after failing to capitalize on his monstrous power earlier in his career, set personal bests in just about every offensive category. In the process, Davis rewarded the Baltimore Orioles by helping lead them to their first postseason appearance in 15 years.

Davis inflicted most of his damage in the season's final quarter, bashing 15 of his 33 home runs with 29 RBI and a 1.104 OPS from August 18th onward. At the time it appeared to be nothing more than a hot streak from a streaky player, but now we can see that it marked the beginning of Chris Davis's transformation into one of the best hitters in baseball. In his past 123 games, roughly three-quarters of a full season, Davis has 48 home runs, 114 RBI, and 321 total bases while batting north of .320.

He's been an unstoppable force so far in 2013. Entering play today, Davis leads the majors in homers, slugging, OPS, total bases, OPS+, extra base hits, and AB/HR ratio. He's on pace for 60 homers, 155 RBI, and could easily approach 400 total bases--an accomplishment that used to mean something before the steroid era bastardized it. His evolution into a one-man wrecking crew has helped keep Baltimore in the thick of things in the AL East, where they sit just 5.5 games out of first place.

Davis would be a slam dunk, no-doubt-about-it MVP were it not for Miguel Cabrera, who's in the midst of another special season as he shoots for his second straight MVP and Triple Crown. As good as Davis has been with the stick, Cabrera's been just a hair better, and it will be interesting to see how they perform and push each other throughout the remainder of the summer.

My NL All-Star Ballot

C Yadier Molina
Really close call between him and Buster Posey, who's hitting as well as he did last year, but Molina's been even better.

1B Paul Goldschmidt
Another tough choice between him and Joey Votto, who can't touch Goldy's power numbers but is still a better pure hitter. Can't go wrong with either one, but bWAR says Goldschmidt has been a bit more valuable than Votto, and I have to agree.

2B Matt Carpenter
Fans might be compelled to go with more recognizable names such as Chase Utley or Dan Utley, but Carpenter is the clear-cut choice here with his Dustin Pedroia-type season.

3B David Wright
Overshadowed by teammate/wunderkind Matt Harvey, Wright is quietly putting together another tremendous all-around season to add to his ledger.

SS Troy Tulowitzki
Ian Desmond and Jean Segura (the NL hits leader) have been stellar, just not as good as Tulo, who was on his way to an MVP-caliber season before landing on the Disabled List in mid-June with a broken right-rib. Segura should be the one to replace him.

OF Carlos Gomez
The second most valuable player in the Senior Circuit (behind only Clayton Kershaw) according to bWAR.

OF Carlos Beltran
Beltran's been a force for the Cardinals this year and is a big reason why they have the league's second best record.

OF Carlos Gonzalez
The league-leader in runs, homers, and total bases has done everything possible to keep Colorado afloat in an extremely competitive NL West. Surprisingly his numbers are better on the road (.976 OPS) than they are at Coors Field (.959 OPS).

My AL All-Star Ballot

C Joe Mauer
Mauer Power may be striking out more than ever before, but that hasn't stopped him from having the best year of his career since he stormed his way to the MVP award in 2009.

1B Chris Davis
Crush Davis, the major league leader in home runs, slugging percentage, total bases, OPS+, extra base hits, and home run ratio, is set to make his first All-Star squad on the back of a Babe Ruth-ian first half. His immense power is the only thing standing in the way of Cabrera winning the Triple Crown again.

2B Robinson Cano
Cano isn't the slam dunk he's been in years past because of his recent struggles, but he still edges out Dustin Pedroia, Jason Kipnis and Howie Kendrick for the starting gig.

3B Miguel Cabrera
As great as Evan Longoria and Manny Machado have been, they can't compete with the reigning MVP. After winning the Triple Crown last year, he's been even better this year. Miggy leads the bigs in pretty much every offensive category, except for the ones owned by Chris Davis.

SS Jhonny Peralta
J.J. Hardy's been getting a lot of love, probably because he has more than twice as many home runs as Peralta. But Peralta's having a much more well-rounded offensive season and actually leads Hardy in slugging percentage. Plus, Hardy's sub-.300 OBP is a real eyesore.

OF Mike Trout
In 2012 Trout put together the best season a 20 year-old has ever had. Here in 2013 he's on pace to finish with the best season a 21 year-old has ever had. His numbers aren't quite as good as they were last year, but they're pretty damn close.

OF Adam Jones
Great all-around play from Jones, who's essentially replicating the success of his breakout 2012.

OF Jose Bautista
Joey Bats' numbers have leveled off following his monster 2010-'11 campaigns, but he's still one of the better hitters in baseball (especially for power) and plays strong defense in right field.

DH David Ortiz
Big Papi's helped lead the Boston Red Sox back to the top of the American League with a monster first half. The 37 year-old DH should be entering the twilight of his career, but instead he's in the midst of a second prime a la Barry Bonds.