Baltimore Beats Boston on Opening Day

Lester pitched well enough to win, but Boston's bats came up short (ESPN)

Boston’s World Series title defense officially got underway this afternoon as the Red Sox lost a close game to the Orioles at Camden Yards.

The Red Sox fell 2-1 to their division rivals despite a strong performance from team ace Jon Lester, who picked up where he left off in the postseason. Lester was sharp, allowing six hits and only one walk while striking out eight in seven innings of work, but he was saddled with the loss as Boston blew several scoring opportunities. Despite recording nine hits, Sox hitters came up empty with men on base (0-for-10 with runners in scoring position) and stranded 12 runners in all. 

Baltimore drew first blood in the bottom of the second when Nelson Cruz, making his Orioles debut, scored on Delmon Young's run-scoring double play. The Sox answered in their half of the fourth when reclamation project Grady Sizemore led off the frame with a home run to right--his first big fly since July 15th, 2011--but that would be the extent of their scoring for the day.

Though Boston forced Baltimore starter Chris Tillman out of the game after throwing 104 pitches through five, they were unable to break through against the Orioles bullpen. Zach Britton kept them at bay long enough for Baltimore to regain the lead on Cruz's seventh inning solo blast. To his credit, Lester recovered to strike out the side and end his day on a high note.

The Sox seemed poised for one of their patented late-inning comebacks after working a pair of walks off Evan Meek in the top of the eighth, but Brian Matusz came to the rescue and induced A.J. Pierzynski to ground out and end the rally. They made one more last-ditch effort in the ninth, putting two on against newly minted Orioles closer Tommy Hunter for David Ortiz, but Big Papi flew out to left. Jackie Bradley, Jr., inserted as a pinch-runner for Mike Napoli the previous inning, was called out on strikes to end the game.

After an off day tomorrow, the series resumes Wednesday night with John Lackey squaring off against Ubaldo Jimenez.

Orioles Snag Cruz

Cruz settled for a one-year deal with Baltimore (CBS)

After landing Ubaldo Jimenez earlier this week, the Baltimore Orioles made another splash by inking outfielder Nelson Cruz to a one-year, $8 million deal today. It's a far cry from the four years and $75 million Cruz was reportedly seeking at the offseason's outset, but it turned out few teams were interested in an aging, one-dimensional corner outfielder coming off a PED suspension.

I was down on Cruz earlier in the winter, but even at that price I have to admit he's an absolute steal. $8 million is a worthwhile gamble to take on a two-time All-Star who's averaged 27 dingers per year over the last five. All he has to do is provide little more than a win above replacement to earn his keep, which shouldn't be too difficult even at age 33. Moving to designated hitter full-time should help him stay healthy (a problem for Cruz in the past) and offset some decline.

What's funny about this move is that the Orioles already have plenty of power. Their 212 home runs were 24 more than any other team launched last year, and their .431 slugging percentage ranked third behind Boston and Detroit. They have the game's top slugger in Chris Davis, who blossomed into a modern-day Babe Ruth, and that's just the tip of the iceberg. They also have Adam Jones, who leads all centerfielders in home runs over the last two years., and J.J. Hardy, who has the most long balls of any shortstop since Opening Day 2011 (both of whom play Gold Glove defense, by the way). Discount the 23 taters Mike Napoli hit last year while manning first base for the Red Sox, and Matt Wieters becomes baseball's best catcher at clearing the fences dating back to the start of the 2011 season.

Baltimore didn't need Nelson Cruz, especially since his natural position of right field is already taken by Nick Markakis. But they got him, at a bargain bin price, no less. Even though they had to sacrifice a draft pick to acquire Cruz, I can't fault Dan Duquette for swinging for the fences and hoping Cruz can do better than past DHs like Luke Scott and Vladimir Guerrero.

The only loser in this deal is Cruz himself, who could have made 75% more money had he not declined the Rangers' qualifying offer of $14.1 million. But given that he's a proven cheater, nobody should feel sorry for him.

Baltimore Better with Ubaldo

Baltimore is banking on Jimenez to be a front-of-the-rotation guy

With Spring Training heating up and the offseason winding down, the Baltimore Orioles made their biggest splash of the winter by signing Ubaldo Jimenez to a four-year, $50 million deal. Jimenez figures to bolster the Orioles' so-so rotation, which compiled a 4.57 ERA and .776 opponents' OPS last year.

First-off, it's interesting that Jimenez got almost the exact same deal as Ricky Nolasco, who received four years and $49 million from the Twins in early December. Like Nolasco, Jimenez has been something of an enigma throughout his career. Seeing as how they both debuted in 2006 and have made virtually the same number of starts (Nolasco has started one more), they make easy and natural comparisons. Here are some of their career numbers:

Nolasco: 89-75, 4.37 ERA,  97 ERA+, 1.29 WHIP, 3.76 FIP, 3.52 K/BB,  10.8 bWAR,
Jimenez: 82-75, 3.92 ERA, 112 ERA+, 1.35 WHIP, 3.78 FIP, 2.05 K/BB, 20.4 bWAR,

Nolasco's peripherals are better, but you have to give the edge to Jimenez for keeping more runs off the scoreboard. His ERA is nearly half a run lower than Nolasco's, which is really impressive considering how many games Jimenez pitched at Coors Field. Throw in the fact that Nolasco's one year older, and I'm kind of surprised they wound up with identical contracts. If given the choice, I'd rather have Jimenez.

Especially since, at their respective bests, Jimenez was far and away the superior pitcher. Jimenez, you might recall, was one of the best pitchers in the game not too long ago. In the first half of 2010 he was about as dominant as any hurler has ever been, setting the MLB record for lowest ERA (0.78) through his first 11 starts. He was 15-1 at the All-Star Break and started the Midsummer Classic, helping the National League win for the first time since 1996 by delivering two shutout innings. The Cy Young award was his to lose, and at 26 it looked like he had finally come into his own and was about to dominate the league for the next half decade.

Then, without warning, his career went off the tracks. He slumped in the second half, crashed hard in 2011 and hit rock bottom in 2012. Jimenez led the majors with 17 losses that year, but more importantly his control completely abandoned him. He uncorked 16 wild pitches--most in the American League--and saw his walk rate balloon to nearly five batters per nine innings. To make matters worse, on those rare occasions when he did throw strikes he got rocked, giving up more than a hit per inning and surrendering 25 home runs. At the time, it was fair to wonder whether he would ever be a capable starting pitcher again.

Ubaldo Jimenez was broken in 2012 and remained broken for most of 2013. His ERA stood at 4.67 on the Fourth of July. Then something clicked. After that, it was 2.01. Cleveland won all six of his starts in September, hardly a surprise given his 1.09 ERA that month. On the regular season's final day, he delivered a gem, striking out 13 Minnesota Twins and allowing only one run in six and two-thirds innings. Terry Francona's Indians won easily, 5-1, clinching the AL wild card to reach the postseason for the first time since 2007.

Thanks to his furious finish, Jimenez posted the highest strikeout rate (9.6 K/9) and K/BB ratio (2.43) of his career, which helped yield his second-best ERA (3.30). More importantly, he trimmed almost a full batter off his walk rate and got his WHIP down to a more manageable 1.33. Like John Lackey and Jon Lester in Boston or Francisco Liriano in Pittsburgh, Jimenez bounced back and contributed to his team's massive turnaround. His ERA was the best of any Indian who pitched at least 100 innings, and he ranked second on the team in strikeouts, wins, and innings to Justin Masterson.

But rather than stick around and try to help Cleveland get over in the hump in 2014, he opted out of the last year of his contract, hoping to make bank off his rebound season. Sure enough, Dan Duquette came calling at the 11th hour to salvage what had been an otherwise uneventful offseason for the Orioles.

But is this a smart move by Baltimore? Your guess is as good as mine. Jimenez is 30, after all, and has lost nearly four miles off his fastball since 2010 (which may explain why only one of his past seven half-seasons can be characterized as good). He wasn't an ace to begin with, and moving to a much tougher division as well as a hitter-friendly ballpark means he's bound to regress. The general consensus on FanGraphs is that he's going to be worse in 2014 than he was in 2013, and I agree. Any way you slice it, Duquette's taking a pretty big risk on a pitcher who looked totally lost for most of the past three seasons.

On the bright side, his 3.43 FIP and 3.62 xFIP suggests last season's success was not a fluke. He got a little lucky with his stand rate and still walks too many batters, but should be effective so long as he keeps missing bats. Baltimore has a pretty good bullpen and defense, not to mention a great skipper (Buck Showalter) and strong defensive catcher (Matt Wieters), so Jimenez is in good hands.

So while his recent track record isn't encouraging, Jimenez should make the Orioles better. He's a clear upgrade to the starting rotation and will likely add about two or three wins to a team that could really use them given their position on the win curve. He probably won't put them over the top in what figures to be a very competitive AL East, but he could be the difference between Baltimore making the playoffs this year or missing them again. I don't love this deal because I'm not optimistic about Jimenez's future, but in the short-term it looks like a win for the O's.

Lackey Leads the Way

For the first time since 2009, the Boston Red Sox are headed back to the playoffs.

After dropping a pair of close games with Baltimore, the Red Sox avoided the sweep by beating the Orioles 3-1 Thursday night. John Lackey went the distance for Boston, yielding just two hits in what was easily his finest performance of the season (highlighted by 6 and 1/3 innings of no-hit ball). Adam Jones took him deep in the top of the seventh, but Lackey bore down to retire Nick Markakis and Danny Valencia, escaping the innings without allowing further damage.

It was fitting that Lackey, whose improbable/remarkable/where-did-that-come-from? turnaround has mirrored that of his team, was the one who pitched Boston into the postseason. Lackey caught a lot of flak (much of it deserved) during his first three seasons with the Sox, whose decline coincided with their signing him to a five-year, $82.5 million contract. Lackey's historically awful 2011 season contributed to the team missing the playoffs by one game that year, made worse by his role as one of the now infamous fried chicken and beer pitchers (Jon Lester and Josh Beckett were the others). His poor performance, negative attitude, questionable work ethic and high price tag made him the team's most despicable player, not to mention the poster boy for everything that had gone wrong with the Red Sox.

This year has been different. He's symbolized everything that's gone right for the Sox. After missing all of 2012 to recover from Tommy John Surgery, Lackey reported to spring training noticably trimmer.  Nobody expected much from him, but the new-look Lackey has responded with his best season in years. While Clay Buchholz missed three months and Lester, Felix Doubront and Ryan Dempster have all battled bouts of inconsistency, Lackey's been the team's most reliable starter all season long. He's been a rock, and his resurgence has been instrumental to Boston's success. He may not be the most likable guy, but at least he's helping the team win (and earning his keep, too).

As well as Lackey's pitched this year, he hasn't received much run support from his teammates. That wasn't the case on Thursday, as the Red Sox scored three runs in the second to give him a nice early cushion. Stephen Drew smacked a two-run homer that just barely cleared the Green Monster, and two batters later Dustin Pedroia drove home Jackie Bradley Jr. with an opposite field single. Orioles starter Chris Tillman did his best to keep Baltimore in the game but was unable to match Lackey's brilliance.

The O's will try to bounce back in Tampa Bay this weekend as the Red Sox host the last place Toronto Blue Jays for their final home series of the regular season.

Chris Davis Breaks Through (Again)

Davis has already matched his home run and RBI totals from last season

2012 was Chris Davis's breakout year. The 26 year-old slugger, labeled a bust after failing to capitalize on his monstrous power earlier in his career, set personal bests in just about every offensive category. In the process, Davis rewarded the Baltimore Orioles by helping lead them to their first postseason appearance in 15 years.

Davis inflicted most of his damage in the season's final quarter, bashing 15 of his 33 home runs with 29 RBI and a 1.104 OPS from August 18th onward. At the time it appeared to be nothing more than a hot streak from a streaky player, but now we can see that it marked the beginning of Chris Davis's transformation into one of the best hitters in baseball. In his past 123 games, roughly three-quarters of a full season, Davis has 48 home runs, 114 RBI, and 321 total bases while batting north of .320.

He's been an unstoppable force so far in 2013. Entering play today, Davis leads the majors in homers, slugging, OPS, total bases, OPS+, extra base hits, and AB/HR ratio. He's on pace for 60 homers, 155 RBI, and could easily approach 400 total bases--an accomplishment that used to mean something before the steroid era bastardized it. His evolution into a one-man wrecking crew has helped keep Baltimore in the thick of things in the AL East, where they sit just 5.5 games out of first place.

Davis would be a slam dunk, no-doubt-about-it MVP were it not for Miguel Cabrera, who's in the midst of another special season as he shoots for his second straight MVP and Triple Crown. As good as Davis has been with the stick, Cabrera's been just a hair better, and it will be interesting to see how they perform and push each other throughout the remainder of the summer.

Machado: 2013's Mike Trout

Thanks to his recent hot streak (39 hits in his past 21 games), Baltimore Orioles' third baseman Manny Machado has forced himself into the discussion everyone's having about who deserves the title of Best Young Player in Baseball. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are easy answers, but Machado has a compelling case as well. As of this writing, the 20 year-old leads American League position players in bWAR and base hits. But that's just the tip of the iceberg: he ranks second in runs, doubles, and extra base hits, too.

It hasn't taken Machado long to realize the superstar potential Baltimore saw when they drafted him out of high school with the third overall pick of the 2010 draft (in which Harper, baseball's LeBron James, went first). Little more than a year later, Machado made his major league debut. He was promoted from Double-A one month after his 20th birthday, arriving to the Show on August 9th, 2012 against the Kansas City Royals.

The Orioles lost 8-2 that day, snapping their five-game win streak, but Machado made a good first impression. Batting ninth, he went 2-for-4 with a triple and a run scored. He was even more spectacular the following day, when he led the O's to victory by slamming a pair of home runs and knocking in four runs off Luke Hochevar.

A star had arrived.

Pegged by many as a breakout candidate during the preseason, Machado is well on his way to surpassing those expectations. He's earned comparisons to Alex Rodriguez after emerging as one of the top third baseman in the American League, if not baseball; an MVP candidate as well as a potential Gold Glove winner. His stellar all-around play is a big reason why Baltimore sits just 1.5 games behind the New York Yankees in the AL East standings.

Given his rise to stardom at such a young age, it's hard not to draw parallels to Trout, last year's AL Rookie of the Year and MVP runner-up. Their rookie seasons were remarkably similar.

Mike Trout's 2011:  40 G  20 R  6 2B  5 HR  16 RBI  9 BB  30 SO  .220/.281/.390
M. Machado's 2012:  51 G  24 R  8 2B  7 HR  26 RBI  9 BB  38 SO  .262/.294/.445

Of course, we all know what Trout did for an encore, which was put together one of the greatest seasons a baseball player (let alone a 20 year-old) has ever had. Machado will be hard-pressed to approach Trout's historic level of production, but at the rate he's going he could wind up with 200 hits, 50 doubles, 20 home runs, 100 runs/RBI and a .300+ batting average.

But for now, let's just enjoy the ride.

Sox Sellout Streak Ends, Collapse in Ninth

The Boston Red Sox's sellout streak officially came to an end last night in just the second home game of the season. For the first time since May 14th, 2003, Fenway Park failed to sell out. The streak lasted 794 games, a record for North American sports teams. It also coincided with the organization's most successful era since the Olde Towne Team captured four World Series titles in a span of seven years from 1912 (when the park opened) to 1918.

For almost a full decade, Fenway Park sold out every home game, rain or shine, as fans came from far and wide to root for (or against) the Red Sox. They saw their team win two World Series and make six postseason appearances. They witnessed two no-hitters from young pitchers Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. They experienced Nomar Garciaparra going into the hole, David Ortiz's dramatic home runs and Jacoby Ellsbury stealing home against Andy Pettitte. They were there to see Pedro Martinez's mastery, Curt Schilling's grit, and Tim Wakefield's floating knuckler.

But in the past calendar year, they've endured a lot of losing, too, including a devastating defeat last night at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore drew first blood by scoring a run on Nick Markakis's RBI groundout (plating Nate McLouth) in the top of the first. It didn't take long for Boston to answer, though. Jarrod Saltalamacchia evened the score with an RBI double to drive in Daniel Nava in the bottom of the second. The Sox scored twice in the third to take a 3-1 lead, but the Orioles quickly responded with two runs of their own in the top of the fourth. Both starters--Jake Arrieta and Ryan Dempster--departed after five, turning the game over to the bullpens.

Boston regained the lead in the bottom of the sixth on back-to-back homers from Nava and Jarrod Salty. The score remained 5-3 until the top of the ninth, when Baltimore rallied for five runs off Joel Hanrahan, who came within one strike of closing the door before allowing the Orioles to prop it back open. While Hanrahan was screwed over by home plate umpire Cory Blaser, he exacerbated the situation by spiking a wild pitch and making mistakes to Chris Davis and Manny Machado, both of whom took Hanrahan deep.

The Red Sox look to bounce back against Baltimore and take the rubber game of the series with (gulp) Alfredo Aceves on the bump.

Boston Beats Baltimore in Home Opener

Nava puts the Sox ahead with a three-run bomb

Fresh off consecutive series wins over the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, the first-place Boston Red Sox made their way back to Fenway Park for their home opener against the Baltimore Orioles. The last time the Fenway Faithful saw them, the sorry Red Sox resembled a Triple-A ballclub as they stumbled towards their worst season since 1965.

That was only six months ago, but so much has changed since then that it might as well have been six years ago. Boston's roster is much improved, and given their hot start it's hard not to feel optimistic about their chances in an up-for-grabs division. Even the weather reflected Red Sox Nation's upbeat mood: with warm sunshine drenching their century-old ballpark and a slight breeze blowing in from left field, it was a perfect day for baseball.

The capacity crowd at the Fens was treated to an old-fashioned pitcher's duel between Wei-Yin Chen and Clay Buchholz, watching helplessly as the hurlers traded zeroes for the first six and a half innings. Boston's sluggers were held in check, unable to take advantage of the unseasonably warm weather or the short porch in left. Baltimore's batters were equally baffled, fanning eight times against Buchholz and mustering just three hits--all singles.

In this pitcher's version of a staring contest, it was Chen who blinked first when he seemed to run out of gas in the bottom of the seventh   With his pitch count pushing triple digits, the tiring starter got himself into a jam when Dustin Pedroia singled and Mike Napoli doubled with nobody out.

With two men in scoring position and Will Middlebrooks in the batter's box, just 24 hours removed from a three-homer game north of the border, the Fenway Faithful sprang to life. Things were finally getting interesting, for Middlebrooks appeared to be a good bet to provide some fireworks. But today was not his day; the young slugger struck out for the second time against Chen. He shuffled back to the dugout, head down, his face darkened by the long shadows creeping across the infield.

That brought up Daniel Nava, who with a walk and a single was the only Red Sox player that had given Chen even the slightest bit of trouble. Whatever sorcery Chen had used to confound the rest of Boston's lineup, it wasn't fooling Nava. Sure enough, he got the better of Chen once more, becoming the unlikely hero by swatting a three-run shot over the Monster. When it came down, Boston had itself a 3-0 lead, Chen was done and Fenway Park was rocking like it was 2004.

Given that Buchholz had already logged 113 pitches on the afternoon, John Farrell turned the game over to his bullpen. He used Andrew Bailey as a bridge to the ninth inning, then brought in Joel Hanrahan to close out the win.

Hanrahan had an adventurous last inning not unlike the stressful situations his predecessor, Jonathan Papelbon, created so often during his tenure in Boston.  It started when the red-hot Adam Jones jacked a solo shot--his first homer of the year--to lead off the ninth and get Baltimore on the board. Hanrahan recovered, retiring Chris Davis with a groundout and striking out Matt Wieters.

Then, just when Sox seemed to be in the clear, J.J. Hardy hammered a double to bring the tying run to the plate in the form of Ryan Flaherty. The crowd was growing restless. Even though most Red Sox loyalists have endured countless chokes and meltdowns in their lifetimes, each new wound stings just as much as the one that preceded it. Nevermind Flaherty's thoroughly mediocre batting record--Bucky Dent and Aaron Boone taught Sox fans to never underestimate their opponents, no matter how non-threatening they appear.

Thankfully, the seldom-used second baseman was just as harmless as his numbers suggested. He ended the game by popping out to Middlebrooks in foul territory. The fans breathed a collective sigh of relief, "Dirty Water" echoed through the grandstands, and the Olde Towne Team lined up for congratulatory high-fives.

Baseball is back, and so are the Red Sox.

AL East Preview

1st Place--Toronto Blue Jays
2012 Record: 73-89
2012 Pythagorean: 74-88
2013 Projected: 94-68
It's been 20 years since Joe Carter crushed one of the most memorable moon shots in baseball history. In the two decades that followed, Toronto hasn't made a single postseason appearance or won more than 88 games, falling from its perch atop the AL East into the middle of the pack. That's about to change. A pair of blockbuster trades brought All-Stars Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, and reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey north of the border to join two of the league's top power hitters (Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion), the next Ryan Braun (Brett Lawrie), and a budding ace (Brandon Morrow). In the span of a few short weeks, GM Alex Anthopoulos transformed his ballclub from also-rans into World Series favorites. Toronto's rotation boasts five frontline starters and its lineup is loaded, putting the Jays in a great position to take advantage of their weakened division rivals. That said, they haven't won anything yet. After what happened to the Miami Marlins and Los Angeles Angels last year, it's important to remember that winning the winter doesn't always translate to winning the regular season. Anthopoulos raided his farm system to acquire established big league talent, so the moves better pay off.

2nd Place--Tampa Bay Rays
2012 Record: 90-72
2012 Pythagorean: 95-67
2013 Projected: 92-70
With plenty of pitching and just enough offense to scrape by, the Rays are like the Junior Circuit's answer to the San Francisco Giants. Even without "Big Game" James Shields, Tampa Bay still has an incredible starting rotation headed by AL Cy Young winner David Price. Price is flanked by 2011 AL Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson and two promising arms (Alex Cobb and Matt Moore) looking to build on strong rookie showings. The bullpen and defense is just as strong, but the Rays will be a bit short on offense again this year, especially after losing B.J. Upton to free agency. A full season from Evan Longoria will help, but bringing in the likes of Yunel Escobar, James Loney and Kelly Johnson doesn't figure to add much pop. They could really use a breakthrough from Desmond Jennings, but he looks like the second coming of Upton in that he's a toolsy outfielder who strikes out a lot. Tampa does have Wil Myers waiting in the wings, and he's good enough to provide a Bryce Harper-type impact if/when they promote him to the Show. Joe Maddon is one of the best managers around and will find a way to guide Tampa Bay to another 90-win season.

3rd Place--Boston Red Sox
2012 Record: 69-93
2012 Pythagorean: 74-88
2013 Projected: 87-75
I've talked extensively about the Red Sox in this space before, and at this point I don't have too much more to say. GM Ben Cherington had his work cut out for him after dumping Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett on the Los Angeles Dodgers last August, but he's done more than enough to help Boston get back to its winning ways in 2013. As always, the Red Sox have assembled a potent lineup that will probably rank at or near the top of the league in runs scored. There's a nice blend of speed (Shane Victorino and Jacoby Ellsbury, who's going to have a monster year) and power (David Ortiz, Will Middlebrooks, and Mike Napoli, who was built for Fenway Park). Ryan Dempster is a solid addition to John Farrell's starting rotation, which should get bounce back years from Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and (dare I say) John Lackey. The bullpen is sneaky-good, especially if Andrew Bailey avoids the Disabled List and Alfredo Aceves can get out of his own head.  Some see 2013 as a bridge year, but with good health and positive regression to the mean, Boston has a decent chance of contending for one of the two Wild Card berths this year.

4th Place--New York Yankees
2012 Record: 95-67
2012 Pythagorean: 95-67
2013 Projected: 82-80
The Yanks sure got old in a hurry. The season hasn't even started yet, and they're already stretched thin because of injuries to Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Curtis Granderson, meaning runs are going to be hard to come by this spring. Their catching situation (Ian Stewart and Francisco Cervelli splitting time) is laughable. Derek Jeter couldn't defend his position before fracturing his ankle. The rotation consists of CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, and a bunch of question marks named Andy Pettitte (old), Phil Hughes (injury-prone)and Ivan Nova (just plain bad). Mariano Rivera and Ichiro Suzuki are on their last legs. The Yankees are going to start slow as they always do, only this time they'll be too old and banged-up to make a full recovery. Given New York's lack of depth and minor league talent, I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Girardi penciling Bleacher Creatures into his lineup card come August.

5th Place--Baltimore Orioles
2012 Record: 93-69
2012 Pythagorean: 82-80
2013 Projected: 76-86
Baltimore stunned the baseball world by snapping its 15-year playoff drought last year, but I predict a return to mediocrity in 2013. I didn't buy their fluky success last year, and even though they proved me wrong I'm not buying their success this year. Call me stubborn if you will, but the Orioles won an ungodly amount of one-run games last year. That's not going to happen again. Furthermore, GM Dan Duquette failed to improve his team over the winter, unless you believe signing Jair Jurrjens makes a rotation better (I don't). Much like the Kansas City Royals, Baltimore is banking on continued improvement from its young core of stars: Adam Jones, Matt Wieters, Manny Machado, and Dylan Bundy. While I like their lineup a lot (Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy and Nick Markakis are good, too), their lack of accomplished starting pitching is a cause for concern. Buck Showalter has just one hurler--Wei-Yin Chen--who won more than nine games and threw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title last season. Chen enjoyed a solid rookie campaign but hardly qualifies as an ace, something the O's desperately need but haven't had since Mike Mussina signed with New York. Bundy has that kind of potential, but the 20 year-old needs more season and will begin the season Double-A. The bullpen was phenomenal last year but is going to be overtaxed if Showalter can't squeeze enough quality innings out of his rotation.

MLB Hot Stove Losers

With spring training here at last, it's time to reflect on another busy baseball offseason. Here's a look at the five biggest losers of the winter (in no particular order).

Miami Marlins
Traded away most of their established talent (Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson) and pissed off their franchise player, Giancarlo Stanton, in the process. Considering the Fish lost 93 games with that crew last year (plus Hanley Ramirez, Heath Bell, Omar Infante, and Anibal Sanchez), the Marlins are a lock to lose at least 100 games in 2013.

Kansas City Royals
The Royals haven't won in so long that they clearly have a misconception about what it means to "win now." It definitely doesn't mean signing innings-eaters Ervin Santana (5.16 ERA in 2012) and Jeremy Guthrie. It also doesn't mean trading away Wil Myers, the best hitter in the minor leagues last year, for a number two pitcher disguised as an ace (James Shields). Even with continued growth from young stars Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, KC is a .500 team at best with almost no chance at contending for the second wild card. Don't be surprised if GM Dayton Moore is out of a job by this time next year.

New York Yankees
After getting wiped out by the Detroit Tigers in last fall's ALCS, the Yanks failed to do much this offseason besides get older. Squeezed by their commitment to getting their payroll below the luxury tax threshold of $189 million by next season, the typically free-spending Yankees restrained from handing out multi-year deals to any notable free agents. Brian Cashman was forced to pinch every penny, and what resulted was perhaps the quietest Yankee winter in recent memory. They picked up Kevin Youkilis to fill in for Alex Rodriguez at third, but Youk brings an injury-checkered past and eroding skills to the Big Apple. Instead of ponying up for Nick Swisher, they brought back a 39 year-old Ichiro Suzuki to man right field. Gone too is Rafael Soriano, an elite closer who stepped up when Mariano Rivera went down (though the 43 year-old Mo will be back, as will 40 year-old Andy Pettitte and 38 year-old Hiroki Kuroda). Russell Martin departed via free agency, leaving New York without an everyday backstop. Key role players Eric Chavez, Andruw Jones and Raul Ibanez--who combined for 49 home runs last year--are gone as well. Travis Hafner is an intriguing addition with that ballpark, but I'm not as enthusiastic about Dan Johnson, Matt Diaz and Juan Rivera. The Bronx Bombers enter 2013 loaded with question marks and will probably miss the playoffs for just the second time in the past 20 seasons.

Baltimore Orioles
If the O's think they can repeat last year's fluky success (93 wins with a +7 run differential), then they are sorely mistaken. After sitting on their hands this winter, they're doomed to crash and burn in 2013 when their good fortune runs out.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Made the biggest blunder of the offseason by trading Justin Upton, a potential MVP-in-the-making whom they still controlled for another three years, and Chris Johnson for Randall Delgado and Martin Prado. They gave up on B.J. Upton's little brother too early and should have been able to get a whole lot more in return than a pair of complementary players and three so-so prospects.

Weaver=Winner

Baseball lost a pair of legends over the holiday weekend when Earl Weaver and Stan Musial passed away. Here are some thoughts on Weaver, who was 82 when he died on Saturday:

Weaver was the best manager the Baltimore Orioles have ever had, and his outstanding track record speaks for itself. He managed 2,541 games--all with Balitmore--over 17 seasons and his teams won 1,480 of them, good for a .583 winning percentage. He presided over five 100-win seasons, four AL pennants, and the 1970 World Series champions. Six times he steered his club to a first-place finish and eleven times his team won at least 90 games. The Orioles were the American League's answer to Sparky Anderson's Big Red Machine always competitive under Weaver's guidance.

Well, except at the end. His only losing season was his last one, 1986, when the O's went 73-89 and finished last in the division. Weaver initially retired following the 1982 season, after Robin Yount and the Milwaukee Brewers crushed Baltimore 11-2 in a one-game playoff for the AL East flag. The front office lured him back in 1985 as the team slid into mediocrity, hoping he'd light a spark under the ballclub. But when Baltimore couldn't turn it around,Weaver walked away. It was good timing, for the Orioles only got worse without him. They dropped 95 games in 1987, then 107 the year after that. It took Baltimore ten years to make the playoffs after Weaver called it quits.

After a brief resurgence in the mid-1990s, the once-proud franchise deteriorated into the doormats of the American League East. The perennial punching bags for the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, and Tampa Bay Rays strung together 14 consecutive losing seasons prior to a fluky 2012 in which they made the postseason despite scoring just seven more runs than they allowed during the regular season.

The last quarter century has been filled with lean times for the Orioles, enough to make their glory years feel like they transpired in an alternate reality. But Baltimore was the class of the American League back then, the first dynasty to emerge after the great Yankee run collapsed in the mid-1960s. The O's reaped the rewards of their prolific farm system that churned out waves of multi-talented ballplayers. Weaver, with all his fiery passion, competitive spirit and infamous tirades, was the perfect man to lead a team desperate to escape its losing reputation. No man could erase 60 wasted years in the American League cellar, but damned if this one wasn't going to try.

Of course, it helped that Weaver was blessed with elite personnel throughout his managing tenure. A great manager is only as good as his players, and Weaver had the good fortune of managing a bunch of them. When he first came on the job in 1968 he inherited the core that swept Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the '66 Fall Classic. was penciling the names of Frank Robinson, Brooks Robinson, and Boog Powell into his lineup cards. Then it was a new crop of stars--Bobby Grich, Don Baylor, Ken Singleton, and Lee May--in the 1970s. His final days at the helm featured Eddie Murray, Cal Ripken Jr., and Fred Lynn.

As for pitching, Baltimore rarely suffered a shortage of quality arms. The Big Three of Jim Palmer, Mike Cuellar, and Dave McNally carried the day, and the 1971 edition featured four 20-game winners (the trio plus Pat Dobson). Players came and went, especially once free agency came into vogue during the mid-'70s, but Weaver remained ever-present.

Weaver wasn't a master tactician or strategist. He didn't know much about pitching. Common managerial maneuvers such as hit-and-runs, sacrifice bunts and stolen bases were foreign to him. And yet, he was one of the winning-est skippers who ever lived. He earned his plaque in the Hall of Fame. He belongs in the pantheon of legendary baseball field generals with the likes of Casey Stengel, Joe Torre, Tony LaRussa, and Bobby Cox.

And even if the Baltimore Orioles revert to their losing ways this year, his legacy as a winner lives on.

Cards, O's Advance to LDS

The MLB postseason began yesterday with a pair of exciting, do-or-die Wild Card playoff games

In Atlanta, the Braves took the early lead on a two-run jack by catcher David Ross, filling in for a banged up/slumping Brian McCann. It didn't last for long, though. The defending World Series champs broke through against Kris Medlen in the top of the fourth, scoring three runs following Chipper Jones' throwing error.  The Braves threatened in the bottom of the frame when they had runners on the corners with one out, but allowed Lohse to escape the jam unscathed.  Matt Holliday belted a solo shot to double the Redbirds' lead, which the Cards re-doubled the following inning after Fredi Gonzalez pulled Medlen from the game. The Braves got a run back in the bottom of the frame on Michael Bourn's RBI groundout, and looked poised for a big inning after putting runners on first and second with one out in the bottom of the eighth.  Mitchell Boggs coaxed Andrelton Simmons into blooping a pop fly into shallow left field...

Shortstop Pete Kozma backpedaled. Matt Holliday charged.  Kozma waved his arms, calling off Holliday, who hit the breaks.  Then, at the last second, right before the ball landed safely in between them, left field umpire Sam Holbrook called the infield fly rule.

You know what happened next.  Fredi Gonzalez went ballistic. Braves fans rained bottles and trash down onto the field, and there was a lengthy delay.  Not only did Holbrook make the wrong call, but he made it much too late. And because of his mistake, he may have snuffed out Atlanta's rally. Jason Motte replaced Boggs and walked McCann on five pitches to load the bases/turn the lineup over. Bourn worked the count full, but strikeout to end the inning. Craig Kimbrel took care of the Cards in the top of the ninth, and Atlanta's bats made some noise in the bottom of the ninth.  With two out, Chipper Jones reached on an infield single in the last at-bat of his major league career when Daniel Descalo's throw pulled Allen Craig off the bag. Freddie Freeman, who made the last out of Atlanta's 2011 season to punctuate their epic collapse, socked a ground-rule double into the left-center gap. Dan Uggla stepped in as the potential tying run with a chance to redeem himself after enduring the worst season of his career.  Instead, he grounded out. Game over.

Once again, St. Louis advanced into the playoffs, and Atlanta went home empty-handed

Nearly 1,000 miles to the southwest, a similar scenario played out in the AL Wild Card playoff game as the Baltimore Orioles took on the Texas Rangers.

Both teams scored in the first inning, Baltimore on a J.J. Hardy RBI single and Texas on a Josh Hamilton double-play. But that was the only run the Rangers were going to get. After rocky starts, Joe Saunders and Yu Darvish settled down and traded zeros over the next four innings. Adam Jones plated the go-ahead run with a sacrifice fly. Darvish departed with two outs (and Robert Andino on second) in the seventh, only to watch as his teammates in the bullpen turned a one-run deficit into a four run disadvantage.

Derek Holland entered the game and promptly uncorked a wild pitch, allowing Andino to advance to third, then yielded a single to Nate McLouth. Koji Uehara struck out the side (Chris Davis, Jones and Matt Wieters) in the top of the eighth to keep the score at 3-1. Joe Nathan suffered a meltdown in the ninth when he walked Jim Thome to begin the frame, and things snowballed from there. He fanned Mark Reynolds, but then Andino doubled, Manny Machado singled in a run and McLouth lifted a sacrifice fly.  Hardy lined out to end the inning, but when the dust cleared Baltimore had tacked on a pair of insurance runs. Rangers fans scurried to the exits, heads bowed in defeat.

But those who stayed received one final tease when the Rangers rallied. Jim Johnson, the major league saves leader with 51, loaded the bases to bring the tying run to the plate in the form of David Murphy, who had entered the game as a pinch hitter for Craig Gentry the previous inning. With Rangers fans everywhere praying for a grand slam, Murphy lofted an easy fly ball to left field. McLouth drifted to his left, settled under it and squeezed his glove with two hands.

The Rangers had their chances, but went just 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position and left eight men on base. Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus and Hamilton all bounced into double plays (the Orioles didn't have any).  I thought they were going all the way this year, and can't believe their season is already over. They shouldn't have been playing this game at all. A week before they held a four game lead with six games to play, but went 1-5 and allowed the Oakland A's to leapfrog them in the standings on the season's final day after being in first place everyday since April 9th. They got cold at the wrong time, and paid the price for it.