Is Chris Davis Crazy?

Chris Davis is poised to strike it rich this offseason (Sports On Earth)

Is Chris Davis crazy for rejecting Baltimore's seven-year, $150 million offer?

I don't think so. Davis has been the game's top power hitter over the past four years, outhomering everyone in the sport and posting the highest ISo in the American League. He's coming off a 47-homer season and is only going to be 30 next year, meaning he should still have several peak-level seasons ahead of him.

He's also far and away the best slugger on the market, which is woefully short on power beyond him, Justin Upton, and Yoenis Cespedes. Free agency is an annual game of supply and demand, and this year's supply of heavy hitters is awfully light.

But what about the demand? Davis hasn't garnered much interest this month, as the Orioles appear to be the only team seriously pursuing him. Granted, it's still early, and everyone seems to be focused on pitching right now. With many prized starters off the board, however, teams should begin turning their attention to the remaining position players, of whom Davis is the most desirable.

Still, I'm not convinced he'll get the eight-year, $200 million contract he's reportedly seeking. Most of the big-market teams are set at first base--the Red Sox have Hanley Ramirez, the Yankees still have Mark Teixeira, the Dodgers have Adrian Gonzalez, the Phillies are stuck with Ryan Howard, etc. The Cardinals probably make the most sense, especially since they'll be eager to make a splash after losing Jason Heyward and John Lackey to the Cubs, but they generally don't overpay free agents the way other teams do.

That doesn't mean Davis should have jumped at the first big offer thrown his way. He's smart to wait it out, to let interest build and allow other teams to start bidding against each other. Scott Boras knows what he's doing, and he knows there's nobody else on the market like Davis.They may not get $200 million, but they can probably get more than 150.

The best comp I can think of for Davis is Prince Fielder, another slugging first baseman and Boras client. Like Davis, Fielder turned down a big offer from his original club to test the free agent waters. He didn't sign until late January, at which point he landed a ridiculous nine-year, $214 million deal from the Tigers. Davis won't get quite such a big deal since he's two years older than Fielder was then, but he should be in the same ballpark.

Davis deserves to get paid. The only question is how much? He's been worth close to four wins per season over the past four, so assuming he loses half a win each year he'll provide 14 over the next seven.  With teams currently paying about $8 million per win, that works out to be "only" $98 million for a seven-year deal. Taking into account inflation, the influx of TV money, and the scarcity of available sluggers this winter, $150 million is probably more reasonable, but $200 million appears to be a drastic overpay. We'll see, but it's hard to imagine Davis getting that much without serious interest from multiple teams.

Given that he's one of the few players around capable of parking 40 dingers a year, I'm surprised there isn't more. Maybe his price tag is scaring teams away. Maybe teams are leary of signing up for a Fielder/Teixeira/Albert Pujols type of commitment. Maybe his high strikeout totals are causing people to view him as a Ryan Howard/Adam Dunn type.

I don't know. All I know is that if I was running a baseball team, and I had an opening at first base or designated hitter, I'd want Davis to fill it. I'm just not sure I'd be willing to pay him $200 million to do so.

Explaining Chris Davis's Sudden Drop-off

2014 hasn't been kind to last year's home run and RBI champion, or anyone who drafted him onto their fantasy team.  Crash back to earth is what Chris Davis has done, reverting into a replacement level player after finishing third behind Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout in the 2013 AL MVP race. His current OPS is 300 points lower it was a year ago.  He's hitting not just below his weight (230) but also the Mendoza line, and he leads the league in strikeouts. Crush has regressed into the whiff machine he was prior to 2012, leaving a gaping hole in the heart of an Orioles' lineup that was counting on 30-40 home runs and at least 100 RBI from him.

So how has Davis turned from Babe Ruth into Mark Reynolds overnight? As is usually the case in these scenarios, the BABiP of the slumping player in question has taken a major nosedive. It's at .250 right now, 74 points below his career average and 86 points less than what it was last year. Given that his line drive rate is over 26 percent--a career-best--Davis appears to be suffering from horrible luck this year. It doesn't help that like most lefthanded pull hitters, he faces defensive shifts on a regular basis. Based on his .145 average on ground balls (.199 last year), it would seem Davis has lost more than a few base knocks to these strategic alignments.

The sharp downturn in BABiP fully explains why his batting average is down almost 90 points from last year.  That's not the only thing that jumps out from his batted ball data, though. He's also showing slight dips in his fly ball rate, from 45.7 percent last year to 40.3 percent this year, and home run/fly ball rate, from almost 30 percent to just a shade under 23 percent. The latter is likely a result of normal regression to the mean, as it's very difficult to hit three fly balls out of the yard for every ten put in play.

So bad luck combined with aggressive defenses and normal regression--all factors outside of one's control--have combined to put a hurt on Davis, but the simple truth is that he hasn't the same hitter he was in 2013. Less complete, less dangerous. Where he's really struggled is against offspeed pitches and breaking stuff, as Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs points out here. Davis has more or less been the same hitter he was against fastballs as he was last year, but this year he's been a mess against non-heaters. Pitchers have exploited this weakness, throwing him fewer fastballs in favor of more curves and changeups, against which Davis has been helpless.

All that flailing has led to the second-worst worst contact rate and strikeout rate of his career. It also doesn't help that he's seeing more first pitch strikes than he did last year, causing him to fall behind early in the count (never good for a big-swinger such as Davis). He's been more selective, which should be a good thing, but based on the previous fact it seems that his discipline may be working against him, especially when he lets those first pitch fastballs go by. It's good to see him laying off more balls, but it would probably serve him well to be more aggressive against pitches in the zone, particularly early in the count when he's more likely to see a fastball. After that, he's going to see more breaking and offspead stuff used to put him away.

(I also might as well bring up the fact that Davis spent time on the Disabled List earlier in the season with an abdominal strain. Before going on the DL his OPS was .754; since returning, it's .688.)

Is there any hope for Davis, whose numbers have declined every month since May? Well for all his struggles, he continues to do what he's always done best: hit for power. With six home runs over the last month and 19 on the season, he's still on pace for around 30 homers and 80-85 RBI--essentially a repeat of his 33-85 production two years ago. With a playable on-base percentage over .300 (which should only improve as his luck turns), there's a regular spot for him in Baltimore's lineup. Just not in the middle of it. 

Trout the Terrific

Mike Trout is not going to win the MVP this year. If he couldn't win it last year, when he was worth 10.9 bWAR and led the majors in runs and steals, all while playing superlative defense in center field, then he's not going to win it this year. Not with Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis standing in his way. Trout will be lucky to get a first place vote.

It's sad, really, to see Trout not get the kind of recognition his special season deserves. He's been every bit as good as he was last year, and in some respects a bit better. He's leading the league in runs, walks, and wins above replacement. He has a four-digit OPS. He's already surpassed 10 WAR again (according to FanGraphs), which makes him the first player with back-to-back ten win seasons since a pumped up Barry Bonds did it during his second prime.

What makes Trouts success even more impressive is his age. He celebrated his 22nd birthday just last month. Nobody's ever been this good, this young before.

Nobody in the game today can match his combination of elite speed, defense, and offensive ability, either. It's not his fault the Angels stink. He couldn't control Josh Hamilton sucking and Albert Pujols getting hurt and the pitching staff falling apart. Trout can do a lot of special things on the diamond, but he can't cover the entire outfield or toe the rubber. He's just one man on a team of 25 guys, and no matter how well he plays, he can only elevate them so much.

He can do it all, but he can't literally do it all.

Once again, Mike Trout is the most valuable player in baseball. But once again, he won't have an MVP trophy to prove it.

Chris Davis Breaks Through (Again)

Davis has already matched his home run and RBI totals from last season

2012 was Chris Davis's breakout year. The 26 year-old slugger, labeled a bust after failing to capitalize on his monstrous power earlier in his career, set personal bests in just about every offensive category. In the process, Davis rewarded the Baltimore Orioles by helping lead them to their first postseason appearance in 15 years.

Davis inflicted most of his damage in the season's final quarter, bashing 15 of his 33 home runs with 29 RBI and a 1.104 OPS from August 18th onward. At the time it appeared to be nothing more than a hot streak from a streaky player, but now we can see that it marked the beginning of Chris Davis's transformation into one of the best hitters in baseball. In his past 123 games, roughly three-quarters of a full season, Davis has 48 home runs, 114 RBI, and 321 total bases while batting north of .320.

He's been an unstoppable force so far in 2013. Entering play today, Davis leads the majors in homers, slugging, OPS, total bases, OPS+, extra base hits, and AB/HR ratio. He's on pace for 60 homers, 155 RBI, and could easily approach 400 total bases--an accomplishment that used to mean something before the steroid era bastardized it. His evolution into a one-man wrecking crew has helped keep Baltimore in the thick of things in the AL East, where they sit just 5.5 games out of first place.

Davis would be a slam dunk, no-doubt-about-it MVP were it not for Miguel Cabrera, who's in the midst of another special season as he shoots for his second straight MVP and Triple Crown. As good as Davis has been with the stick, Cabrera's been just a hair better, and it will be interesting to see how they perform and push each other throughout the remainder of the summer.

May MVPs

1. Miguel Cabrera (.379/.455/.767)
Cabrera is at it again after becoming the first Triple Crown winner in 45 years last season. The major league hits leader recorded at last one base knock in 26 of the 28 games he played in May, totaling 44 hits for the month and enjoying 13 multi-hit games. He also reached base in every game of the month save one--May 13th against the Houston Astros. What's more, Cabrera cranked out 12 home runs during the month, including three in one game against the Texas Rangers on May 19th, while knocking  in 33 runs. The reigning AL MVP, a one-man wrecking crew with the bat in his hands, can't be stopped.

2. Chris Davis (.364/.442/.768)
Davis followed up his monster opening month with an even better performance in May. After a slow start to the month in which he went 2-for-18, Davis caught fire and hasn't looked back. Crush supplied plenty of power for Baltimore's prolific offense last month, ripping 10 home runs and 10 doubles to hike his season slugging percentage up to .749--easily the best mark in both leagues--and maintain his long ball lead over Cabrera. He also supplied 22 runs and 22 RBI. At the moment, Davis appears to be the only obstacle standing in the way of Cabrera's bid for another Triple Crown and MVP award.

3. Domonic Brown (.303/.303/.688)
On the heels of an underwhelming April in which he batted .233/.309/.372 with three home runs, the Philadelphia left fielder broke through with a torrid May. Brown became hyper-aggressive at the plate, refusing to draw so much as a single walk in the entire month. That lack of patience didn't stop him from belting a dozen big flies, seven of which came during the month's final week, to surge past a cooling Justin Upton for the National League lead in home runs. The 25 year-old's power binge produced 25 RBI. He now sports a .272/.306/.549 batting line and is one of the few bright spots on an aging, underachieving Phillies ballclub. Brown's batting approach is not a recipe for success in the long run, but in the meantime it's helped him eclipse Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley as the team's top position player.

4. Mike Trout (.327/.409/.664)
2012's AL Rookie of the Year shrugged off a mediocre April and put up the kind of numbers that made him the deserving MVP one year ago. Trout scored 27 runs in May, a feat that undoubtedly had something to do with the fact that he reached base in all but two games last month. He also plated 21 runs and smacked 17 extra base hits. The 21 year-old was just as dominant on the basepaths, stealing eight bases in ten attempts. His recent hot streak sparked the scuffling Los Angeles Angels to an eight-game winning streak that helped the Halos make up some ground in the AL West.

5. Manny Machado (.355/.380/.556)
Machado emerged as a legitimate superstar during the month of May, earning comparisons to fellow phenoms Trout and Bryce Harper. The 20 year-old piled up 44 hits during the month on the back of 14 multi-hit efforts. 14 of those base knocks were doubles, giving him an ML-best 25 two-baggers on the season. That puts him on pace to break Earl Webb's single season record of 67, set all the way back in 1931. The talented third baseman is making quite a name for himself.

9 Lessons From Baseball's First Week

Baseball has been back for little more than a week, so what have we learned so far? It's still early, so not much, but here are a few key takeaways from the first week of ballgames:

1. Chris Davis's breakout was for real
2. Roy Halladay might actually be done...
3. ...But Chase Utley isn't
4. The Red Sox are better than we thought
5. The Yankees are just as bad (and maybe worse) than we feared
6. Bryce Harper, not Mike Trout, is poised to become the best player in baseball
7. Texas does not like Josh Hamilton
8. A healthy Mike Morse is a force to be reckoned with
9. Justin Upton is a legit MVP candidate, his disappointing 2012 notwithstanding

Chris Davis Breaks Through (Finally)

Davis launches a go-ahead home run in yesterday's game at the Trop

The Baltimore Orioles eked out a 1-0 win over the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday. James Shields went the distance in a losing effort, coming up short against Miguel Gonzalez and Baltimore's unflappable bullpen (51 saves for Jim Johnson!).  Big Game James was truly masterful as he whiffed 15 Orioles, didn't walk anybody and allowed just two hits.

But one of those hits was a long solo home run by Chris Davis in the fourth inning, a majestic shot that carried way past B.J. Upton and the centerfield fence. As the only run scored by either team, it turned out to be the difference maker.

Davis has gone yard in six consecutive games now, giving him 33 bombs on the year and raising his batting line to a healthy .272/.328/.505 in the process.  Like teammate Mark Reynolds, he's inflicted much of his damage in the past six weeks. Davis has socked 15 home runs, three of which came on August 24th in a 6-4 win over the Blue Jays, during the most important stretch of the season.  He's white hot, and thanks to his heavy hitting the Orioles reached the playoffs for the first time since 1997, back when Roberto Alomar, Cal Ripken Jr. and Mike Mussina wore the orange and black.  Davis, like many of his teammates, has never played in a postseason game before.

But that's about to change.  The Orioles, currently tied with the New Yankees for first place in the AL East, are gunning for the divisional flag to avoid a do-or-die play-in game with the Oakland A's.   Davis has played a big part in Baltimore's success; he leads the team in home runs and RBI (though Adam Jones is right behind him), set personal bests across the board and has begun to meet the high expectations that dogged him earlier in his career (much like Alex Gordon, or former teammate Jarrod Saltalamacchia). After years of disappointment, he is finally realizing his potential as he enters his prime.

It's about time.  The 6'3, 230 pound corner infielder is blessed with the natural Giancarlo Stanton brand of power that makes scouts drool.  The Texas native signed with the hometown team in 2006 and proceeded to tear through minor league system.  By June, 2008, the Rangers had seen enough and punched his ticket to the Show. The 22 year-old stroked a single off Houston reliever Oscar Villarreal in his first big league at-bat.  The following day with Philadelphia in town, Davis launched his first major league big fly, a two-run shot at the expense of Clay Condrey.  He was just getting warmed up. In his first month of big league action he smacked ten home runs, batted .303 and slugged .730, inspiring the fans and media to call him "Crush Davis."  His bat cooled during August, but he hit well in September and ended his rookie campaign with 23 doubles, 17 home runs, and .285/.331/.549 figures in just 80 games played. Had he played the entire season, he almost surely would have given AL Rookie of the Year Evan Longoria a run for his money.

It's no wonder people were so high on him entering 2009.  That power, combined with the ballpark and a stacked lineup around him (Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Ian Kinsler), led many to expect big things out of the young slugger. I remember him being compared to Carlos Quentin, who led the AL in AB/HR rate in '08, finished second in home runs (one behind Miguel Cabrera) and slugging percentage (two points below Alex Rodriguez) while winning a Silver Slugger and netting a top-five finish in the MVP race despite missing 32 games.  But the dreaded "sophomore slump" hit Davis hard. When the Rangers optioned him to Triple-A on July 5th to make room for Hamilton coming off the DL, Davis was batting .202 and had fanned 114 times in 258 at-bats, an astounding 44 percent clip.  His hitting improved after he was recalled in late August, but his strong finish wasn't enough to make up for those three months of futility.  On the bright side his power remained intact;.204 ISO and 21 home runs.

Optimists hoping Davis would rebound in 2010 watched him get off to another brutal start, with nary a home run and but one RBI in his first 15 games, earning him another stint in Triple-A, where he spent most of the season. He returned to the big club for 16 games in July and 14 more in September, but didn't hit a lick. In all he received 120 at-bats and finished the season with just one home run and four RBI. 2011 brought more of the same, as Davis was shuttled back and forth between the minors and the majors. Unable to receive consistent playing time, he continued to struggle.

That's when the Rangers finally gave up on him.  Turns out, teams don't have much use for position players who don't hit, field, or run. The day before the trading deadline, they dealt him and starting pitcher Tommy Hunter to the Orioles for Koji Uehara and cash.  Davis went 0-for-4 in his Baltimore debut, but he seemed to settle down and ended the year on a high note; over the season's final three weeks he batted .342 and swatted eight doubles.  Nobody noticed, because the O's hadn't played a meaningful baseball game in months, but perhaps that stretch of regular playing time and hot hitting gave Davis the confidence he so desperately needed (brief sidenote; the Rangers shouldn't beat themselves up over this deal.  Hunter hasn't improved in Baltimore and Uehara has been one of the Rangers' best relievers this season despite spending most of the summer on the Disabled List.  His 1.82 ERA, 0.66 WHIP and 41/3 K/BB ratio are all ridiculous).

Sure enough, that success has carried over into 2012.  Davis came out of the gates swinging a hot bat and proved he belonged as an everyday player, even if that meant batting anywhere in the order except ninth or leadoff and splitting time at first base, left field, right field, and DH.  Granted, Davis does more harm than good just by bringing his glove to the ballpark, but his potent bat makes up for it. Like most high-strikeout guys (Adam Dunn, B.J. Upton, Jim Thome) this free-swinger is prone to lengthy droughts, but when the stakes are high he takes his game to another level.  Whether you believe in clutch hitting or not, you can not deny that Davis has been deadly with runners in scoring position (.977 OPS) and in high leverage situations (1.023 OPS) this year. He has come through time and time again.

But will he do it in the playoffs, against tougher pitching when the lights shine their brightest? We'll find out soon enough.