Don't Get Blue, Toronto

The Toronto Blue Jays are 0.3 runs per game better than the average team on a daily basis.  Not impressed? Then consider this; only the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Rangers, and Phillies are better.  So by this measure, Toronto is tied for the sixth best team in major league baseball (along with the Tigers, Angels, and Braves).  This success doesn't translate to the standings, though, where they are treading water with a .500 record, exactly 72-72 after taking three of four from the visiting Bosox, while equal and lesser teams are already playoff bound.

So what gives?  Obviously playing in the AL Beast hurts, but the Blue Jays have plenty of talent to compete. Just look around the diamond.  Rookie backstop J.P. Arencibia has already ripped 22 home runs while driving in 72 in just 390 at-bats, and if he cuts down on his strikeouts he can be the next Mike Napoli.  Adam Lind has missed some time and struggled mightily (ice cold .175/.211/.328 since July 15th) during the second half, but the 2009 breakout is no slouch in the power department with 24 round trippers and 79 ribbies on the year.  Aaron Hill was swapped out for Kelly Johnson, who is slightly younger and better than his predecessor.  Shortstop Yunel Escobar has settled in nicely with a .292 batting average and 59 walks after battling slumps and injuries last season, while 21 year-old call-up Brett Lawrie has been raking at the hot corner.  And all of these guys are under 30, meaning they're in the prime years of their careers.

The outfield's been a bit messy, and that's why Colby Rasmus was a great addition.  He's been on the DL since August 23rd, but hopefully the 25 year-old can fulfill his potential next year now that he has a breath of fresh air and no more Tony LaRussa.  Either way, at least the lineup has been anchored by MVP candidate Jose Bautista in right.  Joey Bats is undoubtedly the best hitter in baseball this year and has already cleared the fences 40 times despite drawing 113 free passes, 21 of which have been intentional. Unfortunately  Corey Patterson (departed in the Rasmus trade) and Travis Snider are too streaky to be reliable, and Rajai Davis can't do much else besides run.  Edwin Encarnacion has quietly done a fine job providing some thump with 35 doubles and 16 longballs. 

Put it all together and Toronto has an above-average offense; they rank fourth in the AL in homers, fifth in runs, stolen bases, total bases, SLG and OPS, and sixth in hits and doubles.  Clearly there is no shortage of runs north of the border, especially since the Rogers Centre is such a hitter's palace.

But despite all this thunder, Toronto has only scored one more run than it's allowed.  Therefore, the main culprit must be the pitching.  No one in the starting rotation is older than 27, which bodes well for the future but means they still have some kinks to work out in the present.  Southpaw Ricky Romero has developed into the staff ace with 14 wins, a nifty 3.01 ERA and 164 punch outs.  Number two starter Brandon Morrow is even more electric with a whopping 10.4 K/9 rate, but his ERA is over five.  He's not alone in that department, though, as he haas company in rotation mates Jo-Jo Reyes and Kyle Drabek, both of whom allow far too many baserunners to be effective.  Brett Cecil has been somewhere in between, but he serves up more than one gopher ball per start and needs to keep the ball in the park.  The loss of Roy Halladay was bad enough, but they could have really used Shaun Marcum this season, too.

The bullpen has also been a mixed bag; it lacks a shutdown closer (Frank Francisco is not the answer) and as a result six different pitchers have earned saves this season.  Casey Janssen and Jason Frasor have pitched well but are canceled out by horrendous seasons from Jon Rauch and Shawn Camp.  None of these guys are spring chickens, either, since most of them are on the wrong side of 30.

So with a shaky rotation and unreliable crew of relievers, it's no surprise the Blue Jays rank below average in just about every pitching category not named strikeouts (don't think of blaming the fielders for this deficiency because Toronto's defense is league average).  And when you're competing with the pitching-rich staffs of Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay for a third of your season, winning games will be difficult.  That's why they're 17-29 against the big three, and 55-43 against the rest of the league, a 91 win pace over the course of a full season.  Luckily for Toronto fans, the team is still pretty young (especially in the rotation) and the lineup can mash with the best of them, so hopefully some time to grow and mature will do the Blue Jays some good.  Plus they have the very shrewd Alex Anthropolous manning the GM hot seat, which always helps.

So don't get blue, Toronto.  You have a good baseball team; just give it some water and sunshine and watch it grow.  Hopefully it will be at its peak if the Sox, Yanks and Rays ever wilt.

The Meaning of MVP

Is it just me, or does it seem like every August and September brings out the same tired debate over what really constitutes an MVP award?  They've been giving out the darned thing for decades, and we still can't figure out a concrete way to define it and decide who deserves it.  Some choose to define it literally, while others want to provide extra credit for intangibles, such as leadership and grit.  Still others believe the trophy should go to the player with the best statistics, regardless of his team's finish.  Because baseball is a 25 man sport, after all, and one man can only do so much for his team.  Albert Pujols can only come up to bat four or five times a night and play one position in the field

But even so, this year's competitive race looms especially troubling for the voters, because so many players in both leagues are enjoying monster seasons and have multiple pros and cons.  Some play for stacked lineups in hitter's havens while their peers wallow for middling teams trapped in pitcher's parks.  In the AL you can make legitimate cases for Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson, Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Michael Young, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander.  The NL has Matt Kemp, Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Justin Upton, Jose Reyes, Shane Victorino, Ryan Howard, Troy Tulowitzki and Philadelphia's starting rotation.  Honestly, I could see almost any one of these guys ending up with the award.  Obviously, their individual Septembers will play a large role in distinguishing their candidacies, but if I had to pick right now, I think the voters will go with Ryan Braun and Curtis Granderson because of their great all-around seasons for first place teams.  But no matter who's name gets called in November the choices will come with a healthy dose of analysis, controversy, and discussion.

But I want to get back to that pesky definition thing for a second.  In my opinion, the award should go to the guy with the best statistics, and if it's close between a pitcher and hitter the edge should go to the hitter for playing everyday.  I interpret the award as one intended for the most outstanding player, with everything else that gets thrown into the mix carrying far less significance.  You can't quantify intangibles (who's a better leader; Joe Mauer or Derek Jeter? Who's a better teammate; Matt Holliday or Lance Berkman? impossible to tell) so I don't give them much weight unless a player so clearly lifts up his teammates on a daily basis that it can't be ignored.  I don't really care where his team finishes in the standings, because one player can't affect his team's pitching or his manager's decisions or his front office's payroll.  All he can control is his aggregate contribution to his team, so that's what I would base my decision on. If a player has an outstanding season, then he deserves recognition regardless of his team's record.

Therefore, Joey Bats and Kemp deserve the trophy.  They both lead their respective leagues in bWAR by sizable margins.  Bautista's season, statistically speaking, has been nothing short of superlative.  He was unquestionably the hottest hitter on the planet in the season's first two months and currently leads the major leagues n homers, walks, OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+.  He's battled through injuries and has continued to produce even as pitchers try to take the bat out of his hands.  In addition, he plays competent defense in right field and third base, so he's not just a one-dimensional slugger.  The Blue Jays are a .500 team, but without him they wouldn't even be that good.  Kemp's Dodgers have a nearly identical record to Toronto and would be just as forgettable if not for the off-field controversy swirling around the team from its ownership issues, but despite playing in a thin lineup and getting walked intentionally just as often as Bautista he still leads the Senior Circuit in total bases and OPS +.  With eight more four-baggers and three more steals the five tool stud would become the fifth member of baseball's exclusive 40-40 club, and if he gets red hot he'll have an outside shot at the Triple Crown.  He's also played an improved center field and, along with Cy Young candidate Clayton Kershaw, provided one of the few bright spots in a largely disappointing season for the disgraced franchise.

But both players break the unofficial rules, which usually stipulate that the MVP should come from contending teams.  I already explained why I think that one is unfair, but I'll look at two other rules.

Rule-Designated Hitters don't win the award.
I get the argument on this one; if a guy only contributes in one facet of the game, he shouldn't be eligible for the award.  David Ortiz was a prominent victim of this mindset when he racked up 2.49 MVP shares and averaged 42 big flies, 128 RBI with a gaudy 1.014 OPS from 2003 through 2007, yet failed to walk away with the award because voters deemed Alex Rodriguez (three times), Vladimir Guerrero and Justin Morneau to be more valuable (which is fair since Big Papi never led the league in offensive WAR).  However, I think a designated hitter still deserves consideration.  I believe if a DH posts overwhelming offensive statistics that no other player can compete with, say a .350-50-150 line, then he should win.  He's doing all he can to help his team, and by not playing the field he is also contributing by removing his subpar defense from the field. 

Rule-Starting pitchers don't win the award
Since 1971, Roger Clemens has been the only starting pitcher to win the award, probably because pitchers have their own award in the Cy Young.  Voters also tend to devalue starters because they only throw every fifth day (the award does mention playing time should be a factor), and therefore don't impact their teams as much when they're on the bench for 130 or so games.  WAR shows why this is not true, that pitchers can be worth just as much (or more) than hitters, and Justin Verlander will definitely earn some votes for his masterpiece season.  Like DHs, though, I believe a pitcher must have overwhelmingly dominant statistics (see Pedro Martinez's 1999-the guy was mugged), and while Verlander's numbers are impressive they must be viewed within the proper context; offense is down across the sport and he pitches half his games in the cavernous Comerica Park.  He's got the Cy Young award in the bag and will probably finish in the top five of the MVP race, but since the Tigers' record in games he starts is nearly identical to those of other teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels) when their respective aces take the hill means he isn't significantly more valuable to his team than guys like Jon Lester, C.C. Sabathia and Jered Weaver.  If he had this kind of season five or ten years ago during the offensive explosion, I think his case would be a little stronger, but this Year of the Pticher just takes some of the shine off his year because there are so many pitchers, from James Shields and Roy Halladay to Cliff Lee and Dan Haren having great seasons.

Summer Falls

It's Labor Day weekend, the calendar's unofficial end to summer.  Sure, the autumn solstice doesn't roll around for another two and a half weeks, but for all intents and purposes, summer is basically over.  The days are getting shorter, beaches are closing down and school is back in session.  Temperatures drop, the leaves change color and people stop wearing white.

It seems like just yesterday I was celebrating Memorial Day at my neighbor's barbecue.  How could this happen?  No more ice cream, flip-flops, shorts, open windows, and bathing suits?

Bummer.

But I don't want to sulk about the end of summer, because unless you live near the Equator it has to happen sometime.  I want to be optimistic for a minute and focus on fall's strengths instead.

Basketball-people complain about the length of the baseball season, but the Association typically tips off before Halloween, plays into the middle of June, and ends up with a schedule half the size of the Show's.  Jesus, the playoffs take two whole months!  Unfortunately, the start of the NBA season is nowhere in sight

Energy-everyone seems rejuvenated after relaxing summer vacations.  People seem more motivated, especially to go outside.  Any outdoor activity (concert, farmer's market, football game) on a fall weekend, weather permitting, is likely to see some action

Halloween-candy, costumes, parties, tricks, treats, the Charlie Brown special and pumpkin carving. 'nuff said

Hot chocolate-makes a glorious return

Football-see chocolate, hot

Playoff baseball-you play ball for six (eight when you include spring training) months, day in and day out, and then, all of the sudden, there might not be a next game, another at-bat, one more fastball.  The game suddenly has a sense of urgency, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed for Yankees-Red Sox in the ALCS

Indian summer-those perfect days in the middle of October when it's so comfortable outside.  Just ask Kenny Chesney
Fewer bugs (mosquitoes)-correlates to fewer bug bites

Foliage-you gotta admit, those leaves look pretty awesome.  Then they fall off and you have to rake (or leafblow) them.

Sweatshirt and shorts combo-too cool for tee-shirts, not cold enough for pants.  There has to be a middle ground, and this is it

Thanksgiving-family, food, and football

I'm sure there's more, but I can't think of anything else at the moment.  Feel free to add.

Down, but not Out (Yet)

September is here, which means we have less than one month of baseball left to play.  Rosters recently expanded from 25 to 40 players, teams are gearing up for the postseason and summer is slowly melting into autumn.

But where's the excitement, the rush, the pressure of packed stadiums and bright lights and electricity oozing into ballparks?  Look no further than the standings, where you'll find that outside of the AL Beast, every division leader has a cushion of at least 4.5 games, meaning the runner-ups have to gain more than a game a week in the standings to come back and capture the division crown.

Because there is no consolation prize this year.  The wild card races in both leagues have been anything but wild and are pretty much sewn up by the East division runner-ups in both leagues; either Boston or New York will take the AL, but my money's on the Yankees now that the Sox are getting healthier (who will be the more productive injury-plagued hot corner man down the stretch; Alex Rodriguez or Kevin Youkilis? A few years ago you would have been laughed out of your home state for asking this) and over in the Senior Circuit Atlanta has seemingly been in control since Opening Day.  That leaves the remaining contenders to duke it out with their division leaders, and anyone still hoping to make the postseason has some work to do. 

But with playoff berths still up for grabs, let's take a look at the remaining four divisions.

AL Central
Threat level-Low
Detroit holds a nice 5.5 game lead over the Indians and 6.5 game lead over the White Sox, both of whom have the talent to make a serious push.  Cleveland needs Ubaldo Jimenez to step up and be the ace they traded for, and Chicago desperately needs its underachieving trio of Alexis Rios, Adam Dunn and Jake Peavy to pull out of their season long funks before it's too late.  I could see the North Siders making a belated run, but unless Justin Verlander's arm falls off and Miguel Cabrera goes on another late-season drinking binge I don't see the mighty mighty Tigers coughing up their lead.

AL West
Threat Level-High
Try as they might, Texas just can not pull away from the Angels.  Their lead was eight games at one point recently, but Los Angeles got hot and rapidly closed the gap.  It seems like these teams have streaked all summer, with one getting hot when the other one slips and vice-versa.  While the Rangers have the superior offense that just regained Adrian Beltre, I like the Halos' big three of Dan Haren, Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana.  With the weather cooling down Arlington will become less of a hitter's haven and Anaheim will become more pitching friendly, opposing trends that benefit the Angels, plus Torii Hunter and Howard Kenrick have been coming around lately. Something tells me the Halos could pull this off, but I'm not going to write off the reigning AL champs just yet.

Brief sidenote-You can't blame LA skipper Mike Scoscia for throwing Haren and Weaver on short rest in a critical series with the Rangers, but both got shelled in Angel defeats.  Desperate times call for desperate measures, but if the Halos fall short that strategy could prove to be worthy of a winter's worth of second-guessing.

NL Central
Threat Level-None
Yogi Berra said it ain't over til it's over, but this one's pretty much over.  It seemed like Milwaukee didn't lose in August, and the Brew Crew bolstered their lead over St. Louis to 8.5 games, currently the largest in the six divisions.  With just under four weeks of baseball left, this hole is just too big for the Redbirds to climb out of (they would need to make up two games every week).  If Adam Wainwright hadn't missed the whole season this race would be much closer, but right now the only race in this division is the MVP one between Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder.  Fielder's power numbers are more impressive, but the Hebrew Hammer has had the better all-around season and deserves the trophy.

NL West
Threat Level-Medium

Can the Freak and his rotation mates
pitch San Fran back into October?

The Diamonbacks have quietly built a five game lead over the defending World Series champs thanks in part to superlative seasons from Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson (a lethal 1-2 top of the rotation punch), superstar-in-the-making Justin Upton and stud closer J.J. Putz.  Like the Angels, the Giants have the pitching to mount a comeback with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Ryan Vogelsong, but the punchless offense wastes many of their solid performances. Far too many times one of them will go seven innings, give up a couple runs and end up getting slapped with a loss or no-decision for their efforts.  Carlos Beltran has underperformed thus far, but a big final month would provide a huge boost to a team that relies on him and Pablo Sandoval to do the heavy lifting with the lumber (Buster Posey, where are you?).  San Francisco isn't done yet, but I believe in the D-Backs to finish the job. This weekend's series between the two sparring partners marks a critical juncture in this duel.

So I don't see the Central leaders changing any time soon, but the West has yet to be won in both leagues.  The challengers from California have plenty of pitching, but will that be enough to overcome their substantial deficits in the battleground divisions?

Only time will tell.

Sox Sweep Doubleheader, Eye Yankees

The Red Sox are playing so well, not even a hurricane can stop them.


It rained, it poured, and still the Red Sox won

Literally.

Yesterday Boston took both games of  doubleheader against the Oakland A's, persevering through three lengthy rain delays during the afternoon and evening to beat the Athletics 9-3 in the first game and 4-0 in the second as Hurricane Irene descended on the Boston area. 

The first game was a typical Bosox blowout; the Sox burst out of the gates and had nine runs up on the scoreboard before the sixth inning, and with Jon Lester on the bump that cushion was more than enough.  Each member of the starting nine notched at least one hit, run, or RBI as Beantown's Bruisers fattened up on Guillermo Moscoso's pitching before the storm rolled in and snuffed out both offenses for the rest of the game.  You know it's a rout when Jason Varitek can get in on the fun; the Captain cranked a two-run homer (his ninth of the year, or as many as Joe Mauer and Victor Martinez combined) and added an RBI single for good measure

The nightcap was less one-sided, but the feeble Athletics mustered just three hits, all singles, off Red Sox pitching and were shut out by Erik Bedard, Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon.  Bedard was shooting for his first win in a Boston uniform but a mid-game rain delay washed away his chances.  At the dish David Ortiz and Jarrod Saltalamacchia inflicted most of the damage; Big Papi, who had already roped two doubles in the first game, continued his big day by going 3-for-4 with a two-run blast (his 27th) over the Green Monster in the second inning. Salty plated the other two runs with a fourth inning groundout and a sixth inning double.

The pair of wins pushed Boston's division lead over the Yankees, who had their doubleheader rained out in Baltimore, to two games.  The Sox are off today and tomorrow, and then the Bronx Bombers (currently engaged in a doubleheader of their own with another game tomorrow) come to town for a midweek series.  If you merely looked at the division standings you would deem those three games crucial with first place in the AL Beast on the line, but New York has such a stranglehold (seven game lead over the plucky Rays) on the wildcard race that, barring a sweep, they barely affect either combatant's postseason chances. 

Both still have outside shots at 100 wins and both will be playing October baseball this year, so if we're lucky we just might get to see Yankee-Red Sox ALCS.  But for now, a surprisingly meaningless early September series at the Fens will have to do.