Bautista Primed for Disappointment

Bautista is looking for a nine-figure contract extension from Toronto (Twin Cities)

Jose Bautista is one of the Toronto Blue Jays' best players, as well as one of the best players in baseball. He's also going to be a free agent next year, so obviously Toronto would like to keep him. But at what cost?

Apparently, that cost is going to be at least $150 million over five years, which is a lot of money. Only two position players--Jason Heyward and Chris Davis--signed for that much last offseason, and both of them were at least half a decade younger than Bautista. But as tempting as it might be for the Jays to let him walk and save themselves a bundle of money, they're built to win now. After snapping the longest postseason drought in American professional sports last year, they're looking to go on a different kind of run, or at least stay competitive in what is always a tough division. Losing Bautista would make that considerably harder.

So over the next several months, the Blue Jays have to ask themselves: is he worth it?

By the numbers, absolutely. Nobody's homered more often over the past six years than Joey Bats, who's averaged 38 long ones and 97 RBI per season. With a .390 OBP during that time, the six-time All-Star is also among the best in the sport at getting on base, which is why only three players--Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, and Joey Votto--have eclipsed his wRC+, wOBA, and total offensive value over the past half-dozen seasons.

Bautista's bat has made him one of the most valuable players in the game, despite minimal contributions on the basepaths and middling defense. FanGraphs estimates he's been the sixth-best position player this decade, dead-even with Robinson Cano and just a win behind Votto. Considering Bautista's been worth roughly 5.5 wins a season over the last six and that wins are running teams around $8 million these days, $30 million a year is more than fair. In fact, it's downright charitable. Based on the cost of wins, he's been worth more than that in five of the last six years, when his average salary was only $11 million per season. Bautista should be earning three times that.

So why won't he? Age. Bautista turned 35 in October, and there's no precedent for a player that old signing a contract that big. Teams simply don't give guys in their mid-30s nine-figure contracts, mainly because players are too far removed from their primes by then (in the last 40 years, only two players have averaged four wins per season from ages 36-40, the years Bautista's contract would be covering. One of them was Barry Bonds. The other was Edgar Martinez).

 

The game is only getting younger as aging curves have shifted. With speed and defense becoming more emphasized in these pitching-rich times, teams are placing more value on players in their 20s. They want guys who can run and field, so they'd rather invest in younger, less talented players than older players who could fall off a cliff at a moment's notice, no matter how good they've been in the past.

Bautista's the perfect example why. He's been injured recently and is a bat-only player at this stage in his career, so if he suddenly stops hitting he'll have no way to contribute. Any team that signs him is banking on him to hold up into his late-30s, which is usually a terrible bet.

In Bautista's case, however, it might not be. Like Raul Ibanez, David Ortiz, and Edgar Martinez, he was a late bloomer who's been much better in his 30s than he ever was in his 20s. He's shown no signs of slowing down, as he just whacked 40 homers and led the league in walks last year. That might be because he didn't become a full-time player until his late-20s, and thus has a lot less mileage than most players his age.

 

It also helps that he's begun DH'ing more frequently in recent years, and would likely do so full-time if Edwin Encarnacion weren't such a butcher in the field. Seeing more time at DH would help prolong his career, but the Blue Jays are in a tricky situation where they have two excellent hitters who really shouldn't be playing the field. If they decide to keep Bautista and let Encarnacion (also a free agent next winter) leave, they could slot the former in as their everyday DH and hope he continues to rake until his 40th birthday, a la Ortiz and Martinez.

This is a big year for Bautista. If he has another monster campaign (which the projections say he will) and Toronto doesn't extend him, he'll be the best player in next winter's free agent class. That alone could drive up his asking price, especially if a bidding war ensues over his services.

Still, it's hard to see Bautista breaking the bank, no matter how good he is this year. Look no further than last year when Victor Martinez, coming off a dominant season at the same age, got only four years and $68 million on the open market (which already looks like a huge mistake). Bautista could probably fetch $20 million a year, but $30 million appears out of the question. Which is too bad for him, because he's been worth that much before and might still be in the future, but at this point he's just too old to trust.

ALCS a Heavyweight Showdown

The reigning AL champs are itching to get back to the Series (Bleeding Royal Blue)

Because of baseball's division format, added wild card games, and the sheer randomness that ensues in a best-of-five series, it's become exceedingly rare that the two best teams (record-wise) meet up in the league championship series. This is only the fourth such time in the American League since the wild card era began in 1995.

But in a year where all but three American League teams finished within seven games of .500 (how's that for parity?), the Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals were head and shoulders above everyone else. The Royals had the league's best record (95-67), and the Blue Jays its top run-differential (+221). They were the only AL teams to top 90 wins this year.

How they got here is quite interesting. The defending AL champs appeared to take a step back over the winter, losing ace James Shields to free agency and making a host of questionable free agent signings. Experts thought they'd be lucky to crack .500, let alone return to the postseason. But Kansas City got off to a hot start and never looked back, spending just 19 days out of first and never a day below second. They took over first place for good on June 8th, running away with a middling AL Central. Two months later they'd built up a double-digit lead and maintained it the rest of the way, winning their division by a whopping 12 games.

But whereas Kansas City cruised through the regular season, Toronto spent most of the year playing catch-up. After an active offseason in which they traded for Josh Donaldson and signed Russell Martin, the Jays were a popular pick to make the playoffs, if not win the division.

So it was surprising when Toronto started slow, playing losing baseball for the first two months. They'd slipped to last in the AL East by Memorial Day and were still seven games below .500 one week later. They begin digging themselves out with a sizzling June, only to flounder again in July. Toronto limped into the break with a losing record, having dropped 10 of 14 leading up to the Midsummer Classic. Their struggles continued throughout the rest of July, only coming to an end when the team acquired David Price and Troy Tulowitzki just before the trade deadline.

When Troy Tulowitzki came over on July 28th, the Jays were still one game below .500. Supplemented by David Price two days later, they won 14 of their next 15 and began steamrolling the American League. The Blue Jays became the hottest team in baseball, winning 43 of their final 61 games, good for a ridiculous .705 winning percentage--this from a team that hadn't managed to win even half its games for four solid months.

Toronto wasn't the only team to land a pair of big names at the deadline, though. Kansas City also made waves, fetching an ace in Johnny Cueto and bolstering its lineup with Ben Zobrist.

Both teams instantly took on the look of World Series contenders, so it's only fitting that they're playing each other for the rights to be in the Fall Classic.

The Royals, of course, were just there last year, and would have won were it not for a herculean effort by Madison Bumgarner. After coming oh so close, Kansas City is determined not just to get back to the Series, but to win it.

So are the Blue Jays, who just snapped the longest active postseason drought in American professional sports. With Price a free agent at season's end and many of their best players about to join him soon, the time to win is now. This could be their last, best chance for awhile.

Toronto's power makes them a formidable opponent (Betting Talk)

A few days ago, it didn't look like either one would survive the ALDS. Both were on the cusp of losing to inferior teams, just one game away from elimination. Toronto went down 0-2, dropping the first two games to Texas at home. When the Jays lost Game 2, blowing an eighth-inning lead and losing in extra innings, it felt like Toronto's fans had just seen the last game at the Rogers Centre this year. The Blue Jays' season was about to end in disappointment.

But Texas, who recently failed to win a World Series despite being one strike away twice, was once again unable to finish the job. Toronto battled back, winning both games in Arlington to force Game 5 and return the series north of the border. Having burned through Price in Game 4 and facing Cole Hamels, however, the Jays appeared to be at a major disadvantage, especially after the Rangers grabbed an early lead and still led after the seventh-inning stretch. Once again, it looked like Toronto's season would end in tragedy.

Until the Rangers imploded, committing three straight errors and choking away the game in one of the craziest innings I've ever seen.

The Royals were in similarly dire straits, losing two of three to begin the series and staring down a four-run deficit in Game 4. With just six outs left in their season, the odds of them living to play another day were three percent.

But for the second year in a row, the Royals rallied from down four runs in a must-win elimination game, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. They stunned Houston with a five-run frame, then tacked on two more in the ninth for good measure. Back in Kansas City, they won Game 5 two days later, overcoming another early deficit to send the Astros packing.

So now that they're here, who's the better team? The Royals were the American League's best team wire-to-wire, but the Blue Jays were the best team in baseball after the All-Star Break. We know momentum doesn't matter heading into a playoff series, but both teams have to be feeling pretty good about themselves after cheating death in the ALDS.

The Blue Jays were actually a much better regular season team than the Royals despite winning fewer games. They played in a tougher division and outscored Kansas City by 167 runs--more than one per game. Their run prevention was nearly as good, too, allowing only 29 more runs than Kansas City. According to Bill James's pythagorean model, which estimates how many games a team should have won based on its run differential, Toronto should have won 102 games this year--or nine more than they actually won. The Royals--winners of 95--would have been expected to win 90.

The gulf in talent becomes obvious after a quick comparison between the two rosters. Toronto boasts an All-Star lineup with Donaldson, Martin, Tulo, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion. They also have the AL's best pitcher at the moment in Price, who might, as Bumgarner showed last year, win the series all by himself.

Which is why even though Kansas City sports the superior regular season record (and thus home field advantage), I sense that Toronto is the better team. This series won't prove that, of course, and the Royals are obviously good enough to win. I just think the Jays have more talent. I was originally going to say Toronto in six, but after Kansas City's Game 1 win I'm revising it to Toronto in seven.

Boston Blows Middle Game to Toronto

The Red Sox fell flat on their face in a nightmare 10th inning (Boston Globe)

The Red Sox played phenomenal baseball for nine innings Tuesday night, battling the Blue Jays to a 1-1 draw through the end of regulation. In the tenth inning, however, Boston showed why its in last place with one of the uglier innings I've seen this season, which is saying something considering how many unsightly moments there've been this year.

As the game drew on, it was only a matter of time before Boston blew up. Leave a last place team on the field long enough, and sooner or later they're going to screw up. Face Toronto's fearsome lineup, which includes three 30-homer hitters and leads all of baseball in runs scored, too many times, and eventually you pay the price.

Basically, the Red Sox lost because they went through the Blue Jays lineup one too many times last night.

Which is too bad, because Boston pitching dominated Toronto its first four trips through the order, allowing just one run on three hits. Unfortunately the Red Sox were equally quiet, managing only one run themselves and a mere four hits.

Boston's best chance to win came in the bottom of the ninth. Robbie Ross Jr. had just retired the side in the top half, setting the Sox up to walk-off with the heart of their order due up. Aaron Sanchez kept Boston at bay, working around a walk to David Ortiz (immediately erased when his pinch-runner, Rusney Castillo, was thrown out trying to steal second) to send the game into extras.

Castillo's mistake proved costly, as he may have ran the Red Sox out of a rally. Instead of a man on first with one out (Boston's win probability at that point: 64 percent), there were two outs and nobody on for Travis Shaw (win probability:54 percent). Shaw, who'd tied the game with a solo shot in the second, was unable to muster his second long ball of the evening and grounded out to end the frame.

With the middle of Toronto's order coming up and Boston's bullpen thinning out, the Blue Jays were poised to broke through. The Red Sox had blown their best chance walk away with a win, and thus avoid facing the terrifying trio of Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion for a fifth time. Interim manager Torey Lovullo sent out Alexi Ogando, his sixth reliever of the evening, to deal with the aforementioned sluggers.

Ogando got into trouble immediately, as Donaldson socked his second pitch off the top of the Monster for a leadoff triple. Following a fly ball to Bautista, Ogando intentionally walked Encarnacion to set up an inning-ending double play.

To his credit, Ogando got the next two batters--Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Colabello, to hit the ball on the ground, but neither found a Boston glove. Both squirted into the outfield for run-scoring singles, giving Toronto a 3-1 edge.

That's when things turned ugly for Boston. With light-hitting Kevin Pillar at the plate, Ogando balked in a run, then uncorked a wild pitch. Pillar lifted a fly ball to Brock Holt in left, which Holt delivered to the plate ahead of a tagging Colabello. The throw was a bit up the line, however, and actually conked Colabello on the helmet as he slide into home. Had his dome not got in the way, he probably would have been called out.

As it were, the Blue Jays built a four-run lead in the blink of an eye--plenty of insurance. The Red Sox went down 1-2-3 in their half of the tenth, and that was that. They'd played nine great innings but had nothing to show for it, getting saddled with a tough-luck loss.

I suppose it's been that kind of season for the Red Sox. Even when they play well, they lose.

MLB September Storylines

Dodger aces Greinke (L) and Kershaw are players to follow in September (ESPN)

Labor Day weekend is upon us (seriously, how did that happen?), which means there's but one month left of the regular season. Even with most of the divisions and playoff races already decided, several exciting stories have yet to be played out. Will the Blue Jays win their division, thus ending the longest postseason drought in American professional sports? Can Houston hang on in the AL West? And just who is going to put themselves over the top in various award races?

Even if your team is toast and you can't wait for football to start, there's still enough going on to keep fans engaged into October. Here's a sample:

1. David Ortiz's march to 500 home runs
It's been another tough year for the Red Sox but another great one for Ortiz, who's closing in on his 500th career long ball. He has five to go which, given his feverish home run pace (23 taters in his last 70 games), shouldn't take too long.

2. Clayton Kershaw's quest for 300 strikeouts
As Jeff Sullivan noted yesterday, Kershaw's up to 251 K's on the year after fanning 15 Giants in Wednesday night's masterpiece. With five or six starts remaining, he has a chance to become the first pitcher since 2002 to eclipse 300 punchouts. If he does that, a third straight Cy Young award may be in the cards.

3. AL East showdown
As always, the AL East has become a dogfight between its top two teams, one being the Yankees of course. For once, however, the other combatant isn't Boston. It's the Blue Jays, currently clinging to a 1.5 game lead over the Bombers. Toronto will get every opportunity to widen the gap down the stretch with the rest of its games coming against sub-.500 teams and New York.  The Yankees have a similarly easy slate, however, so it wouldn't be surprising to see first place change hands several times over the next month.

4. How will the West be Won?
The fate of the AL West is still up in the air, for it's the only division where the third place team isn't more than 10 games out. It has been turned completely upside down this year, with Houston and Texas (both losers of 90+ games last year) rising to the top while Oakland and Seattle (winners of 88 and 87, respectively) sinking to the bottom. In between are last year's division champs--the Angels--still trying to find their way. LA's coming off a terrible August but could catch up if they play like they did in July. Houston's had control of first place for most of the year, but now find themselves holding on for dear life with a two game edge over the surging Rangers. So hold your breath, Astros fans, and don't exhale until this time next month.

5. Who will snag the second AL wild card?
The Pirates and Cubs have both NL wild card spots wrapped up, and whoever loses the Yankees-Blue Jays duel is guaranteed the first wild card in the AL. The second wild card berth, however, is very much up for grabs. Texas currently leads by one game over Minnesota, with Los Angeles and Tampa Bay looming not far behind. The Twins and Angels are fading fast, while the Rangers have rolled since trading for Cole Hamels. Fingers crossed for a tie, which would mean a play-in game for the play-in game!

6. Will Washington pull it together?
It's now or never for the Nats, who've hovered around .500 all summer and allowed the Mets to break away. They're still close enough (six games) that Washington could steal the division out from under them with a huge September, but time is dwindling. Which team will the Nationals be this month: the one that everyone predicted to win 100 games or the one that might wind up with a losing record? I say they finish strong but still miss the playoffs.

7. St. Louis shoots for 100
Improved parity has made 100-win teams increasingly rare--there were none in each of the past three seasons. Only one team has a legitimate shot to do it this year, and it's not the preseason favorites. The best team in baseball this year has been the St. Louis Cardinals, currently 86-47 and steaming towards their third straight division title. With 29 games remaining on their schedule, the Redbirds need only go .500 to reach the century mark.

8. Does anyone get to 50 homers?
There have been just two instances of a player surpassing 50 home runs during the past seven seasons, but it's possible we'll see two or more players crack that many this year. Nelson Cruz--last year's long ball champion and the current major league leader--needs 11 to get there while Chris Davis--the last to break the 50 barrier--is a dozen away. Look for Carlos Gonzalez, who's cranked 31 over the last three months, to make a run as well.

9. Award races
The AL MVP was seemingly Mike Trout's to lose until about a month ago, at which point he and his Angels went in the toilet while Josh Donaldson and the Blue Jays took off. Now Donaldson appears to have the upper hand, but that could change in an instant if Trout gets back to being himself and leads LA to the playoffs. The NL MVP belongs to Bryce Harper no matter how often Joey Votto reaches base, but Zack Greinke could become the second straight Dodger pitcher to win it if he continues to be lights-out in September.

Speaking of Greinke, he and Kershaw will duke it out for the NL Cy Young award. Wonder which Dodger (and former Cy) voters prefer; Greinke with his sparkling ERA or Kershaw and his gaudy strikeout totals and only slightly less-sparkling ERA? The AL trophy is probably going to Dallas Keuchel (who saw that one coming?), but don't count Chris Sale out just yet.

The AL Rookie of the Year race is a tight one too, with Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, and Andrew Heaney all having strong cases. The NL field is a two-horse race between Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant, though Noah Syndergaard deserves consideration as well.

10. September call-ups
No matter where your team falls in the standings, it's worth checking in on them throughout September as their future stars get a first taste of the big leagues. For instance, Corey Seager made his major league debut last night.

Blue Jays Big Winners at Trade Deadline

The Blue Jays hope Price can pitch them into the postseason (NY Daily News)

When you trade for the best shortstop in baseball and one of your league's best pitchers in the span of 48 hours, you're having a pretty good week.

Unlike the Royals, with whom Toronto has shared the spotlight this week, the Blue Jays have made their share of headlines over the past few years. They traded for the first edition of the Miami Marlins (Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle), a reigning Cy Young winner (R.A. Dickey), and a legit MVP candidate (Josh Donaldson). They haven't been shy on the free agent market either, bringing on post-PED suspension Melky Cabrera and Russell Martin--one of the best catchers in baseball.

And yet for all their activity, the Blue Jays have nothing to show for it. Every year, it seems, Toronto is the dark-horse candidate to win the AL East, and every year they flop--usually because they don't have enough starting pitching. It's hard to believe that team, with all its talent, has lost more games than they've won over the past two and a half seasons, especially given the lackluster quality of their division these days. The AL East has been wide open the past couple of years but it's been the Orioles, not the Jays, who've taken advantage. Toronto's merely toiled in mediocrity, watching its playoff drought--the longest in American professional sports--grow longer by the day.

This year, with the Blue Jays again hovering around .500, GM Alex Anthopoulos pushed all his chips into the pile. He had already committed to going for it this year when he traded for Donaldson and gave $82 million to Martin last winter. Now, with his team in the hunt for the second wild card and still within striking distance of the Yankees, Anthopoulos made his move. First he went out and got Troy Tulowitzki, which seemed a bit puzzling given that he already had a really good, albeit injury-prone, shortstop in Jose Reyes, who went to Colorado along with two minor leaguers and Miguel Castro.

But Anthopoulos wasn't done. Yesterday, just two days after acquiring Tulo, he sent three players, including his organization's most promising young starter (Daniel Norris), to Detroit for David Price.

No disrespect to Tulo, but Price is the bigger get here. Toronto hasn't had a pitcher of his caliber since Roy Halladay, and Halladay hasn't thrown a pitch for the Jays since 2009. Like the Royals, they were a team in desperate need of an ace, and now they have one.

Price, who was dealt on deadline day last year, fits the bill. Dominant as ever, his stats this year are right in line with those from his Cy Young season of 2012. Furthermore, the one-time Tampa Bay Ray is not only comfortable pitching in the AL East, but also has postseason experience. The big lefty is exactly the kind of guy you want at the front of your rotation, even if it's only for a few months (Price will be a free agent this winter).

As for Tulowitzki, there's no doubt he's one of the best players in baseball whenever he takes the field. Taking the field isn't something he does all that often, but he's been healthy this year and makes the best lineup in baseball even better (but also impossibly right-handed). He's also under contract for five years beyond this one, which means Toronto's set at shortstop for a while.

Just two games out of the second wild card and with Price and Tulowitzki now on board, the Blue Jays are poised for a run that could result in their first postseason berth since 1993. Given all they've invested in this year's team and all the talent they just surrendered, however, anything less would be a colossal failure.

Toronto's Torrid Hitting Fuels Streak

Pricey free agent addition Russell Martin has been a huge success (US News)

Things were looking pretty bleak for the Toronto Blue Jays on the afternoon of June 2nd. The Jays had just been shut out for the first time this year, dropping Game 1 of a doubleheader to the Washington Nationals 2-0. The team who many thought would win the AL East this year had fallen a season-low seven games below .500, much closer to last place than first place.

Then the Blue Jays started winning, and they haven't lost since. They took the nightcap 7-3, then routed the Nats 8-0 the following day to take the series finale and the series. At the end of a week-long road trip, Toronto was just getting started.

The Blue Jays returned home from our nation's capitol and swept the red-hot Astros, winning the first two games handily before punctuating their second sweep of the year with a come-from-behind, walkoff victory. They followed that sweep with another of the Miami Marlins, which featured another thrilling comeback-walkoff.

Having climbed above .500 for the first time in a month, Toronto traveled to Boston for a three-game set at Fenway. The Jays broke out their bats, scoring 13 runs in the opener and finale--31 in all. In between Toronto ran its win-streak to double digits with a 5-4 victory in 11 innings--the team's second extra inning win of the year and first since April 18th. All three wins were exceptional, with the visitors overcoming a seven-run deficit in the opener, winning the middle game in extras, and pounding the Bosox 13-5 in the finale.

With yesterday's rout, the Blue Jays completed their third consecutive sweep, tying a franchise record with their eleventh straight victory. They've averaged an incredible eight runs per game over the course of their streak, bludgeoning opponents with the best offense in the game. Their pitching has been better as well, allowing three runs or less in seven of the eight games before falling victim to Fenway's friendly confines.

It took them two months, but the Jays have finally bloomed into a team worthy of the preseason hype. They have the majors' best run-differential and have murdered lefties like few others in the Wild Card era.

Not coincidentally, Toronto's win streak has paralleled the re-emergence of All-Star shortstop Jose Reyes, who has hit safely in all 11 of their victories. Reyes, who returned from a four-week absence on Memorial Day, has notched at least one hit in 17 of 18 games since coming off the disabled list, raising his OPS 170 points during that time. He's played a huge role in Toront's win streak, driving in 11 runs out of the leadoff spot and scoring in eight straight games.

Toronto's lineup has also benefited from the resurgence of Russell Martin, who went a month between home runs before jacking three last week, including the game-winning blast in Saturday's extra inning affair. Martin's also currently riding a six-game hit streak, while teammate Edwin Encarnacion has hit safely in seven straight. Jose Bautista, who cranked four home runs in a four-game span after managing just seven through his first 47, also appears to be finding his form after a slow start. If they hit like they have in the past, Josh Donaldson keeps hitting as he has, and Devon Travis comes back strong, Toronto's going to light up scoreboards all summer long.

It's funny that the Blue Jays are essentially the team everyone expected their rival Red Sox to be, leading the majors in runs scored (by a lot, as well as doubles, slugging, OPS, and total bases) but ranking near the bottom (third-to-last) in ERA (and home runs allowed). Toronto's won by outslugging its competition thus far, but for that to continue its position players must stay healthy and productive. That won't be easy given that Martin, Bautista, Encarnacion, Reyes, and Chris Colabello--over half the starting lineup--are all on the wrong side of 30. The pitching will have to improve eventually, because the lineup can only cover their mistakes for so long. Look for Alex Anthopoulos to seek out starting pitching help at the trade deadline--Cole Hamels would be a huge get.

In the meantime, Toronto will shoot for a franchise-record 12th straight victory tonight in Flushing behind Mark Buehrle, who's delivered a pair of strong starts during the run including his first shutout in almost two years. The Mets, who have the same record as the Jays (34-30) and currently sit atop the NL East, will counter with Noah Syndergaard, the rookie phenom who was still in diapers the last time Toronto reached the postseason. Mets fans hope Syndergaard (2.96 FIP) and Citi Field's carvernous dimensions can combine to stifle Toronto's torrid offense, but after seeing the Jays turn Fenway Park into a pinball machine I certainly wouldn't bet on it.

The Hits Keep Coming

Last night's game featured 23 runs and 27 hits (Boston Globe)

Last night's game at Fenway Park was exactly the kind of hitting bonanza Red Sox fans expected to see plenty of this year, where Boston's juggernaut lineup scores a bunch of runs, its terrible pitching staff lets up more, and in the end the Sox lose by a football score.

With both teams sending mediocre starting pitchers to the bump and the air still warm from an 85 degree day in Boston, the conditions were ripe for a slugfest. After a five-run first inning in which Pablo Sandoval and Mookie Betts homered, the Red Sox were off and running. Toronto got one back in the top of the second on Justin Smoak's triple into the triangle, which led Betts to crash headlong into the outfield wall.

Boston appeared to put the game out of reach with Dustin Pedroia's three-run shot in the third, which increased the home team's lead to seven and drove Jays starter Drew Hutchison from the game. Of course, no lead is ever safe in Fenway Park, especially when Joe Kelly and co. are pitching.

Kelly gave those three runs back in the top of the fifth, and when he left the game after the sixth his ERA had risen to 5.45. He was still in line for the win until Matt Barnes, Junichi Tazawa, and Tommy Layne proceeded to allow nine runs in the seventh inning. Sandoval's ninth error of the season didn't help matters, and Smoak capped the monster inning with a two-run shot into the Monster seats. The inning, which began with Boston leading 8-4, ended with Boston trailing 13-8.

The Red Sox mounted a serious threat in the bottom of the eighth, scoring one to narrow the gap to four and loading the bases for Mike Napoli. Napoli, the potential tying-run, could have knotted up the game with one swing of the bat. Instead the bearded slugger struck out on three pitches, frozen by a Brett Cecil curveball right down broadway.

Boston reached double digits with Rusney Castillo's RBI double in the ninth, but it was too little, too late. Cecil fanned Pedroia to end a game in which Boston scored 10 runs, pounded out 12 hits, slugged three home runs, and still lost. Leaving nine men on base didn't help, but at least they tallied more runs last night than they did during their miserable three-game trip to Baltimore.

With their fourth loss in a row, the last-place Sox slipped eight games below .500. They'll try to snap Toronto's nine-game winning streak this afternoon behind Clay Buchholz, who had been a roll before getting roughed up by Oakland last Sunday. The Red Sox will get another chance to fatten their averages with R.A. Dickey, who owns a 5.35 ERA and 5.38 FIP, on the hill for the Jays.

But as last night proved, even if they do that won't guarantee victory.

Donaldson Dialed In

Donaldson has as many big flies as Giancarlo Stanton (Fox Sports)

Much of the early season baseball coverage, including my own, has paid notice to streaking sluggers Bryce Harper and Nelson Cruz, allowing an equally torrid hitter to fly under the radar north of the border.

When Josh Donaldson stepped up to bat in the bottom of the ninth of yesterday afternoon's White Sox-Blue Jays game, Toronto's chances of winning stood at a mere 11 percent. The Bluebirds were down 3-2 with one out and nobody on against David Robertson, who held a sub-one ERA just a couple days ago and has been one of the best relievers of the decade.

For the third time this year, however, Robertson blew a save opportunity. After falling behind in the count, he left his 2-0 offering up and out over the plate. Donaldson didn't miss it, crushing the mistake into the second deck of the left field bleachers to tie the game. The White Sox would rally to win the game in 10 innings and salvage the series finale, largely because Donaldson did not receive another at-bat.

If he had, he might have well gone deep again. The long ball was Donaldson's 13th of the season, eighth of the month, and fourth in the past three days. Saying he's on fire right now might be the world's greatest understatement, as he's batting a blistering .309/.378/.629 in May and .314/.374/.590 on the year while coming up with these kinds of heroics on a regular basis. It's scary to think where Toronto--currently five games under .500 in a mediocre AL East--would be without him.

When Donaldson was traded from the Oakland Athletics to the Toronto Blue Jays last November, it was understood that his numbers would likely receive a boost from leaving behind a pitcher's paradise in Oakland and moving to a more hitting-friendly venue. I don't think anyone could have guessed just how much he'd enjoy hitting in the Rogers Centre, which plays well for sluggers like him and is much kinder to batters than the cavernous O.co Coliseum.

Sure enough, Donaldson has flourished in his new digs. In 26 games at home, Donaldson has 10 doubles, 10 home runs, and a 1.156 OPS. In 23 games everywhere else, he has just three doubles, three home runs, and a .731 OPS. That's about as extreme as home/road splits can  be, with the vastly dissimilar results reflecting Donaldson's differing approaches. He has been much more aggressive at home, posting a meager 3.6 percent walk rate there compared to a 13.9 percent walk rate on the road. Normally a patient hitter, Donaldson is walking less this year while putting up career-best numbers across the board.

It will be interesting to see if Donaldson maintains his more aggressive approach throughout the season. His swing rate is up and his contact rate is down, which should be yielding worse results. Perhaps those figures will normalize over the course of the year, which we're still not even a third of the way through yet. I also find it interesting that decreased patience has aided Donaldson given that Bryce Harper, one of the few hitters more productive than him, has enjoyed much better results by greatly improving his selectivity. That's probably a function of their different positions on the aging curve, as young hitters like Harper benefit from increased patience whereas older hitters like Donaldson ward off age by hacking more to counteract declining bat speed.

As hot as Donaldson is right now, don't expect much fireworks from him over the next week: Toronto's traveling to Minnesota today.

Sox Walk-Off

Betts celebrates his walk-off (Barstool Sports)

This season's first meeting between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays turned out to be a good one, though it did not start well for the Olde Towne Team. The half-hour rain-delay may have affected both starting pitchers, who each needed 36 pitches to get through the first and allowed five runs between them.

Jose Reyes got Toronto off and running by ripping Joe Kelly's second pitch of the night for a single, stole second, then came around to score when Devon Travis singled to right. Kelly walked Josh Donaldson, losing him on a full-count. Two outs later, he lost another full count when Russell Martin turned on Kelly's ninth pitch of the at-bat and smashed two-run double down the left field line. Kelly stranded Martin on second by getting Michael Saunders to fly out to deep center and end the inning, by which point he had already thrown 36 pitches and dug Boston into a 3-0 hole.

The Red Sox rallied immediately, getting two runs back in their half of the first on an opposite field single from Pablo Sandoval. The game would have at least been tied, however, had Mookie Betts not been thrown out trying to steal second base. Betts had tipped his hand by trying to steal on the previous pitch, which Dustin Pedroia fouled off.

Following a scoreless second inning in which both sides went down in order and failed to hit the ball out of the infield, the Jays struck again. Travis, the red-hot rookie, continued his incredible start by lining an 0-2 pitch over the Monster to lead off the third. Kelly recovered to fan Donaldson, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion, blowing away the heart of Toronto's order with his high-90s fastball.

Kelly ran into trouble again in the fourth as his control abandoned him. He walked Martin on four pitches and Saunders on five, setting up Kevin Pillar's run-scoring single. The game might have gotten out of hand were it not for consecutive outstanding plays by Boston's defense. The first was Sandoval showing off his surprising agility by laying out, Bobby Orr-style, to snag a blooped bunt off the bat of Dalton Pompey. The second was an unassisted double play by Xander Bogaerts, who gunned the speedy Reyes at first and has looked much more comfortable at shortstop this year than he did last.

Sandoval's web-gem led to an early exit for the lumbering third baseman due to whiplash-like symptoms (he's been cleared to play tonight), but not before he belted his first Fenway home run in the bottom of the fourth. He hit a rocket into the bullpen off Aaron Sanchez, bringing the Sox to back within two. Boston closed the gap to one in the following frame after Kelly set down the Jays in order. Betts started the rally with a two-out double to left, then scored when Sanchez airmailed Dustin Pedroia's tapper out of play. The error, committed on a play which would have ended the inning, proved costly.

Kelly wasn't sharp, but kept his team in the game (Chat Sports)

With both starters gone by the seventh inning, John Gibbons entrusted his shaky bullpen to protect Toronto's one-run lead. Aaron Loup made short work of the Sox in the seventh, needing just eight pitches to retire the side. Alexi Ogando, the former reliever-turned starter-turned reliever again, did his part by keeping the Jays off the board in the seventh and eighth.

Gibbons tapped Roberto Osuna to navigate the eighth inning, a move that immediately misfired when he allowed back-to-back singles and uncorked a wild pitch. He walked David Ortiz to load the bases, only to face Boston's hottest hitter in Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez delivered, nearly finding the gap with a liner to left but settling for game-tying sacrifice fly. Osuna preserved the tie, escaping the inning without further damage by whiffing Allen Craig and getting Daniel Nava to line out to Donaldson, who made a spectacular leaping catch--one of his many great defensive plays on the day--to end the inning.

With the score all even at 5-5 heading into the ninth, it was Koji Time, and Koji Uehara did not disappoint. He whiffed Saunders and Pillar before getting Pompey to pop out to third, setting Boston up for some bottom of the ninth heroics.

And who better to play the hero than Betts, who in spite of his poor numbers has dazzled Red Sox fans with his highlight-reel theatrics and flair for the dramatic in the early-going. With one out and runners on second and third, Gibbons made the curious move of not walking Betts to set up a force at the plate and potential inning-ending double play. He let Miguel Castro pitch to the kid, who made Toronto pay by singling through its drawn-in infield for his third hit of the night, plating Bogaerts for the winning run.

The win improved Boston's record to 11-9, moving them into a tie for second place in the AL East with Tampa Bay, who lost to New York (AL) 4-1. The loss dropped Toronto to last place in the division, half a game behind Baltimore. The Red Sox will look to win again tonight behind Clay Buchholz, while the Jays will counter with Drew Hutchison.

The Return of Alex Rodriguez

A-Rod hit well in his return to action yesterday (ABC News)

The Yankees suffered a 6-1 Opening Day loss to the Blue Jays yesterday, but the story of the afternoon was Alex Rodriguez playing his first major league game since serving his suspension. He was greeted with a loud ovation from the Yankee Stadium crowd, receiving "A-Rod" chants from the Bleacher Creatures. Batting seventh and DHing for the Bombers, Rodriguez worked an eight pitch walk in his first at-bat and roped a single to center his second time up. A-Rod lined out to right fielder Jose Bautista in his final at-bat.

Merely a shell of the elite player that he used to be, Rodriguez is no longer capable of playing the field everyday or batting in the middle of a lineup. New York's re-acquisition of third baseman Chase Headley over the winter has forced Rodriguez off the hot corner, where he was New York's starter from 2004-2013. He'll also probably see time at first base, a position he had never played before until this spring training.

The best case scenario for Rodriguez, now in his 21^st major league season and turning 40 this summer, is for him to stay healthy enough to bat about .250 with 15 or so home runs. That won't come close to earning his exorbitant salary, but at least it's something. 

Rodriguez begins the season with 654 home runs, fifth on the all-time list and only six shy of Willie Mays. Catching Barry Bonds or even Babe Ruth seems out of the question at this point, but he'll pass Mays soon enough. Rodriguez might not have much left of his reputation, but his power stroke is still somewhat intact, as evidenced by the three home runs he swatted in 45 spring at-bats.

Rodriguez can expect to be booed mercilessly on the road, but that's nothing new to him. His hitting coach this past winter, Barry Bonds, certainly knows what that's like. Bonds can rest easy knowing that Rodriguez won't reach his record, and that with the recent downturn in offense it will probably stay safe for the foreseeable future.

Crazy as it sounds, I find myself rooting for A-Rod. Maybe it's because the whole world is against him. Maybe it's because I was a fan of his for so long that, like with an old flame, I find myself unable to completely cut ties.

Or maybe it's because Alex Rodriguez is one of the greatest baseball players ever, and there still appears to be some greatness left in him. I want to see it emerge, however briefly, if only to be in awe of his otherworldly talent once again.

Toronto Trades for Donaldson

Oakland unloaded its best player at the worst possible time (SFGate)

When you have not just the best third-baseman in baseball, but the sport's second most valuable position player over the past two years behind the one and only Mike Trout, and you have him under team control for four more years, and he's still only 29 years old, you'd be crazy to trade him, right? Especially when you're at a point on the win curve where one win could mean the difference between making the playoffs and playing golf in October. Unless you get so much in return that the trade is a can't miss opportunity, you thank your lucky stars that your late-blooming third-sacker unexpectedly evolved into one of the best all-around players in the game and wave him good bye when he hits the open market at 33.

For the Oakland A's to justify trading Josh Donaldson, their All-Star third baseman who finished fourth in the 2013 AL MVP race and eighth last year, they clearly needed to win such a trade. And while they're getting a four-for-one in their latest deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, I think they're probably looking at a loss, at least in the near future. The best they can hope for is a push.

The main piece Oakland gets in return for their All-Star third baseman is Brett Lawrie, who looks like a lost cause at this stage in his career. Since bursting onto the scene in 2011 with a .293/.373/.580 slash line, Lawrie's turned in three straight subpar, injury-plagued seasons. He's batted just .261/.316/.406 over the past three years with 34 home runs and 5.4 fWAR in 302 games, failing to deliver on the enormous promise he displayed as a rookie that drew comparisons to Ryan Braun. The soon-to-be 25 year-old is still young enough that an Alex Gordon or Donaldson-esque breakout might be looming, but right now there's not much to suggest such a transformation is coming. Moving from the Rogers Center to Oakland's Colisieum, a hitter's nightmare, won't help speed that process along.

The best-case scenario is that Lawrie puts it all together and becomes as good as Donaldson (it's pretty much impossible to be better), but even if he does the A's will only control him for three years rather than the four they had left with Donaldson. Granted, one player's age 25-27 seasons are more appealing than another's age 29-32 years, but Donaldson's already a finished product. Lawrie's still a project. Think of it this way; would you rather have the next three years of Jackie Bradley, Jr. (25 next year) or four more years of Andrew McCutchen (28)? Or how about Lawrie versus Evan Longoria (29)?

Lawrie's not Donaldson, and he's probably never going to be Donaldson because Gold Glove-caliber defenders with 30-homer pop are exceptionally rare these days. But the A's got more than Lawrie; they got three other players as well, all prospects. The most promising of those is Franklin Barreto, an 18 year-old shortstop who hit well in low-A ball last year (.399 wOBA, 141 wRC+ with 29 steals in 73 games). Barreto, Toronto's No. 5 prospect per Baseball America, could be something special, but he also won't be major league ready for at least a few more years. I'd feel a lot better about this deal for the A's if he becomes their franchise shortstop, but right now that's far from guaranteed.

The other two prospects are arms, neither of whom were considered among Toronto's 10 best prospects. One is lefty Sean Nolin, who's about to turn 25 but has only pitched one game in each of his two major league seasons. Even so, his solid minor league track record (3.06 ERA) suggests he's major league ready and could crack Oakland's rotation next year. Ditto Kendall Graveman, a righty and the other pitching prospect in this deal. Graveman's going to be 24 next year but shot up through Toronto's farm system, making his major league debut little more than a year after being drafted. He dominated at every minor league level last year with a 0.34 ERA at A ball, 2.23 in high-A, 1.50 at Double-A, and 1.88 in Triple-A. Just as playing in Oakland will hurt Lawrie, pitching there should only help Nolin and Graveman's development.

Lawrie leaves a lot to be desired (CBC Canada)

Looking at the swap from Oakland's perspective, my concern has more to do with the timing of it than what the A's got in return. Lawrie's an everyday third baseman: not a great one, but a major league regular at the very least. Barreto's the shortstop of the future, and on top of that Oakland nets a pair of major league ready arms to bolster its staff. If the A's were in rebuilding mode, this would be a fantastic move for them.

Only the A's are in no position to rebuild coming off last season's soul-crushing wild card game defeat. They were the best team in baseball in last year's first half, for crying out loud, and still mortgaged their future to acquire Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija from the Cubs (and then traded Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes). You can't blame Billy Beane for wanting to restock the farm system a bit, but with that roster he should be focused on winning now, not five years from now. When you're on the cusp of your first World Series title since 1989, you don't trade your best player unless you're getting someone of similar value in return. Lawrie, Nolin, and Graveman combined probably won't provide as many wins as Donaldson will for the Blue Jays next year (Steamer says they'll produce 3.9 fWAR to Donaldson's 5.6 in 2015), and they take up three roster spots to Donaldson's one. Seven win players are incredibly rare and worth their weight in gold. Beane was lucky enough to have one, then crazy to trade him.

If you're the Blue Jays, though, you have to be excited with how your team's looking these days. Adding Donaldson to a lineup that already featured Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes, and the recently acquired Russell Martin gives Toronto one of the best offenses in baseball (after they ranked fourth in runs and second in OPS among American League teams last year). The rotation isn't as formidable, but projects to be solid nonetheless. When you have a lineup like that, you can win plenty of games without top-shelf starting pitching.

Toronto's trying to be the top dog in an unstable AL East, and you have to commend the Jays for going for it. They know the time to win is now, with Boston, New York, and Tampa Bay all reeling from disappointing seasons, and they're doing all they can to end what is now the longest playoff drought in the four major American sports. Toronto's last two seasons have yielded disappointing results, but that hasn't stopped them from trusting their talent and doubling down on a championship-caliber core.

The A's could learn a thing or two.