Showing posts with label Red Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Red Sox. Show all posts

Saturday, November 17, 2018

Despite Flaws, Sox Among Best Ever

Despite facing numerous obstacles, Boston made it look easy (The Atlantic)
The 2018 Boston Red Sox will go down as one of the greatest teams in baseball history. After storming their way to a franchise-record 108 wins during the regular season, they proceeded to blitz through October, going 11-3 against the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers to capture the club’s fourth World Series title of the century and ninth overall. All told, their 119 victories were the second-most for a World Series champion, trailing only the 1998 New York Yankees.

Obviously, a lot has to go right for a baseball team to win that many games, and a lot did go right for this year’s Red Sox. Mookie Betts turned in one of the greatest individual seasons ever, amassing 10.4 fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. J.D. Martinez had a strong case for the award as well after threatening the Triple Crown with 43 homers, 130 RBIs and a .330 batting average. Andrew Benintendi avoided the dreaded sophomore slump after finishing second to Aaron Judge in the 2017 Rookie of the Year race. Xander Bogaerts and Eduardo Rodriguez overcame injuries and finally started living up to their potential. Chris Sale was arguably the best pitcher in baseball on a per-inning basis, and Rick Porcello bounced back from leading the Majors in losses in 2017 to leading the team in wins. David Price recovered from an injury-marred 2017 to go 16-7 with a 3.56 ERA before exorcising his playoff demons. Craig Kimbrel continued being one of baseball’s best closers, and the rest of the bullpen was surprisingly solid. Midseason trades for Nathan Eovaldi and World Series MVP Steve Pearce paid huge dividends, especially during the postseason. Rookie manager Alex Cora made his job look easy, navigating a full season in Boston’s fishbowl without a hint of controversy and pushing all the right buttons in October.

And yet, the Red Sox were a great team in spite of everything that went wrong for them. They endured 26 separate DL stints – only seven teams had more. Hanley Ramirez slashed .254/.313/.395 through 44 games before being released in late May. Dustin Pedroia was limited to just three games due to knee injuries, and his replacements (Eduardo Nunez, Ian Kinsler, Brock Holt, the ghost of Brandon Phillips) struggled to pick up the slack. Boston’s catching corps was the worst in baseball, ranking dead last in wRC+ (44) and fWAR (-2.1). Jackie Bradley Jr. didn’t hit during the first half, and Mitch Moreland didn’t hit during the second. Benintendi eluded the sophomore slump, but Rafael Devers didn’t. Sale hardly pitched during the final two months of the season and was noticeably diminished during the playoffs. Price scuffled in the first half and continued to flounder against the Yankees. Drew Pomeranz turned into a pumpkin. Steven Wright, Tyler Thornburg, and Carson Smith missed most of the season for the second year in a row. Joe Kelly was plagued by inconsistency. Blake Swihart wasted away on the bench as his development continued to stall. Kimbrel saw his walk rate balloon during the regular season before nearly blowing multiple games during October. The farm system is still utterly barren, and Boston will have to pay luxury tax penalties after outspending every team in baseball this year – partially because they paid Pablo Sandoval and Rusney Castillo a combined $30 million to play in San Francisco and Pawtucket.

So no, the Red Sox were not a lucky team by any stretch of the imagination – but it’s scary to think how good they could have been if they were.

Thursday, July 27, 2017

Why Wasn't Williams Called Up?

Williams quickly proved too good for his Minor League assignment (Esquire)
Much has been made about all the games Ted Williams lost to World War II and Korea, which amounted to nearly five full seasons. But what about the time at the beginning of his career, before it even started?

By the time Williams arrived to the Major Leagues in 1939, he was already a finished product. Having destroyed American Association pitching the previous year, he promptly set fire to the Majors with one of the greatest rookie seasons ever. In addition to leading the loop in RBIs with 145, the 20-year-old Williams batted .327/.436/.609 with 31 home runs en route to a fourth-place MVP finish.

Williams had been ready for some time, however, and should have debuted in 1938. He didn't make the team out of Spring Training, unable to crack Boston's veteran outfield of Joe Vosmik, Ben Chapman, and Doc Cramer, all of whom would bat .300 that year. None of them could hit for much power, however, slugging just 15 homers between them, with Cramer hitting none. Williams had already showed his natural power stroke the year before with San Diego, swatting 23 home runs as a skinny 18-year-old in the Pacific Coast League, and would have added thump to a lineup that was starved for power beyond Jimmie Foxx.

Furthermore, the men Williams might have replaced in the outfield weren't fan favorites or established stars with the team, as none had spent more than two years with the Red Sox. While veterans are always given a chance to keep their jobs and rookies tend to be treated with kid gloves, nobody's feathers would have been ruffled had Joe Cronin benched one of them in favor of Williams.

While it's understandable that the Red Sox wanted Williams to get regular at-bats rather than sit on the bench behind the aforementioned trio, they should have called him up later in the season. By August they were out of the pennant race and it was clear that Williams had nothing more to learn with Minneapolis, where he won the league's Triple Crown with 43 homers, 142 RBIs and a .366 average. Chapman was months away from being traded and clearly wasn't in the club's long-term plans, so why not give the Kid a shot? With Foxx having a season for the ages, setting a then-franchise record with 50 homers, Boston already had the perfect lineup protection for Williams, who could have cut his teeth on a steady diet of fastballs hitting in front of Double X.

The Red Sox had other motivations for keeping Williams down on the farm longer than necessary, however, namely his maturity. He had rubbed many teammates and coaches the wrong way with his big mouth, and it was felt that he needed time in the Minors not just for seasoning, but to grow up. If Williams had been less of an annoyance, the Sox might have been willing to give him a chance. Instead, they may have hoped to humble him with the demotion.

It all worked out in the long run, however; as fate would have it, Rogers Hornsby was one of the Millers coaches that year. Williams learned a lot from the best right-handed hitter of all-time, namely "get a good pitch to hit." The Splendid Splinter took that to heart, walking more than 2,000 times in his career, but it's possible that he wouldn't have been so patient had he never come under Hornsby's tutelage.

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Debunking Some Ted Williams Myths

The Boston press attacked Williams with invented weaknesses (SI.com)
Last week I got around to reading Impossible Dreams, an excellent anthology of Red Sox writing compiled by Glenn Stout that's well worth a look for all Sox fans. One of the sections centers on Ted Williams, of course, given that he inspired more copy than any athlete in Boston sports history--most of it overwhelmingly negative. 

The Boston press, which featured nine newspapers at the time, was hostile to him for most of his career. One such instance came at the beginning of the 1954 season when Williams, 35 and just back from Korea, was contemplating retirement. Although he had returned from the war zone with a bang the previous summer, batting .407/.509/.901 with 13 homers and 34 RBIs in 37 games, the writers were hardly begging him to stay. Instead, they dared him to quit, imploring him to hang up his spikes immediately rather than wait until season's end. Thankfully, Williams played out the season and several more, sticking around until 1960. 

Anyways, the 1954 piece I'm referring to (which was penned by either Dave Egan or Harold Kaese -- his two most vicious attackers) levelled several common criticisms of the day against Williams, namely that he struggled against the Yankees, tanked in the clutch, and was more concerned with his own statistics than helping the Red Sox win.

Writers rarely supported their arguments with statistics back then, but if they had they would have had no ground to stand on. Williams batted .345/.495/.608 against New York in his career, nearly identical to his overall .344/.482/.634 slash line. So how did writers get the notion that he wilted against the Yankees? Likely after the final days of the 1949 season, when Boston dropped its final two games at Yankee Stadium to blow the pennant while Williams went 1-for-5, losing the batting title to George Kell in the process. Williams did not choke, however, reaching base in four of his eight trips to the plate and scoring two of Boston's seven runs. The press, which had a long memory with Williams when it came to his failings but borderline amnesia regarding his successes, also apparently forgot that just one week before, Williams had led the Sox to a two-game sweep of the Yanks at Fenway Park by homering in each game. 

The last two games of '49 were lumped in with the 1948 pennant tiebreaker game against Cleveland (in which he went 1-for-4) and his poor World Series performance in 1946 as evidence that Williams couldn't perform when it counted most. In the 10 biggest games of his life, writers often reminded their readers, he was 7-for-34 (.206) with no extra-base hits and just one RBI. However, 10 games is much too small of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions from, especially since Williams was hurt during the Fall Classic and the other three contests came at the end of long, grueling pennant races. It was seldom mentioned that Boston wouldn't have gotten that far in the first place without Williams, who earned MVP honors in 1946 and '49 while finishing third in '48. But since the Red Sox always fell short in the end, their failures magnified those of Williams when people went searching for explanations.

Looking at Williams' overall body of work (and not cherry-picking 10 games from a career of 2,292), however, there's ample evidence that suggests he was actually pretty good in the clutch. In high leverage situations, for instance, he batted .329/.467/.607 -- not far off his career marks. When games were late and close, he performed at a .312/.449/.613 clip -- not quite his career levels, but still outstanding. And when there were two outs and runners in scoring position, he batted .315/.524/.647. 

That last stat line (note the on-base percentage) drew the ire of sportswriters who blasted Williams for refused to expand his strike zone with men on base. He was selfish, they said, because he would rather take a walk than help the team by driving in a run (which is often said about Joey Votto today). It's been proven, however, that the occasional RBI gained by swinging at balls is not worth the trade-off of making more outs. Besides, Williams drove in plenty of runs despite often being pitched around in such situations, leading the league four times and racking up 1,839 in all (130 per 162 games). He was hardly the only Boston batter capable of driving in runs, either, as he often had great RBI men behind him such as Jimmie Foxx, Bobby Doerr, Vern Stephens, and Jackie Jensen. The best thing a hitter can do to help his team is avoid making outs by getting on base, and no one in baseball history was better at that than Williams, whose .482 career OBP is still the highest of all time.

As a hitter, Williams was pretty much flawless. The press made up weaknesses so they'd have something to write about, and they got away with it because great sites like Baseball-Reference didn't exist yet. But now that they do, we can see how the Knights of the Keyboard exaggerated the few (but memorable) failures in Williams career to create these illusive shortcomings. 

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Breaking Down Boston's All-Stars

Betts, Kimbrel, and Sale are in the midst of terrific seasons (MLB.com)
The Red Sox sent three players to the All-Star Game in Miami last night, and all three played a role in the American League's 2-1 victory. Chris Sale started and tossed two scoreless innings, Craig Kimbrel earned the win in relief, and Mookie Betts made a pretty good throw. They were at their best against the National League's best, and I'm sure the American Leaguers were happy to have them on their side.

So are the Red Sox, given how well the trio has performed this year:

Chris Sale (3.9 bWAR)
Sale has been the best pitcher in the American League this year and arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He's gone at least seven innings while allowing three or fewer runs in 12 of his 18 starts and has a dozen starts with double-digit strikeouts, including eight in a row at one point that tied his own (and Pedro Martinez's) record. These strong showings have been reflected in his awesome GameScores, which have exceeded 70 nine times and have averaged 67 (he only has one lower than 54). He's currently leading the Majors in strikeouts (178), FIP (2.09) and K/9 rate (12.5) while also pacing the AL in innings (127 2/3), WHIP (0.90) and K/BB ratio (8.1). Assuming his arm doesn't fall off in the second half, he looks like a lock for his first Cy Young award.

Mookie Betts (4.3 bWAR)
Offensively, the Red Sox have gotten the 2015 version of Betts rather than last year's version who finished second to Mike Trout in the MVP race, but he's compensated by taking his defense to new heights. After winning his first Gold Glove last year with an incredible 32 fielding runs per Baseball-Reference, Betts is on pace to surpass that number with 20 under his belt already. With a glove like that, anything he provides on offense should be considered a plus, except that his bat was nearly as valuable as his leather last year (30 batting runs). He's slipped a bit offensively due to another slow start, but he's still leading the Majors in doubles (29) and has a shot at 30 homers and 30 steals. Betts has also shown flashes of breaking out recently, suggesting he might have another big second half in store. Even if he doesn't, he's still one of the league's 10, if not 5, most valuable players.

Craig Kimbrel (2.3 bWAR)
Kimbrel's numbers had been trending in the wrong direction before he was traded to Boston, and his first season with the Red Sox was a disappointment. He got hurt, struggled with his command (5.1 BB/9) and posted a career-worst 3.40 ERA. Heading into 2017, there was talk that Kimbrel might be a problem rather than a solution in the bullpen. Well, that hasn't been the case this year, as the flamethrowing righty has silenced the critics by reclaiming his status as one of the game's premier closers. You need a microscope to see his 0.50 WHIP, as he's stopped walking people (five of the 134 batters he's faced) and is more unhittable than ever, striking out nearly two batters per inning and limiting opponents to a .110/.157/.181 batting line. He's been lights-out when he gets the call -- converting 23 of his 25 save opportunities -- and he hasn't suffered a loss yet after dropping a career-worst six decisions last year. If he keeps it up, Sale won't be the only Boston pitcher on Cy Young ballots.

So yeah, they've all been pretty good. Any game that Sale starts and/or Kimbrel finishes is as good as a win, and with Betts always a threat to have a monster day at the plate, he's capable of winning ballgames all by himself, too.

Tuesday, July 11, 2017

Red Sox Roll into Second Half

Boston's strong finish to the 1st half looks like a sign of things to come (CBS)
Well, it's officially the All-Star break and the Red Sox are right where they're supposed to be; leading the AL East and on pace for 90-plus wins. It hasn't been the smoothest ride, but Boston had an uneven first half last year too en route to winning 93 games and the division. And although they limped into the break by losing four of their last five, that came on the heels of a six-game winning streak that equaled their season-high. Overall, the Sox are in good shape heading into the second half, having gone 29-16 since May 21 as several of their top hitters and pitchers have come around.

On the hitting side of things, Boston rates fourth in the AL in runs per game and total runs despite ranking dead last in home runs. They've compensated with a contact-heavy approach that's yielded the league's second-highest batting average and third-fewest strikeouts. The lineup has proven to be deep and balanced, with regulars posting an OPS+ over 100 at every position except catcher and third base. Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts are both batting .303, Mitch Moreland's having one of the best years of his career, and each member of the Killer B's outfield has an OPS north of .800. Hanley Ramirez had another slow first half, but he caught fire towards the end and looks poised to go on a tear post-All-Star break.

Still, this clearly isn't the same offense that led the sport in runs last year. They've missed David Ortiz in the heart of their lineup, as it seems unlikely that anyone will replicate his standard 30 homers and 100 RBIs (not to mention his leadership). Catcher and third base have been black holes, with the Sox tied for last in the AL in fWAR at both positions. Third base has been a revolving door thanks to Pablo Sandoval's ineptitude, and while Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon are fine receivers, neither can hit. Not much can be done about the catching situation given the dearth of quality backstops available, but Todd Frazier is on the block should Boston be inclined to upgrade externally rather than promote Rafael Devers.

The Red Sox have graded out as top-10 defensive team, which isn't surprising given their young, athletic outfield and their stellar double-play combination of Pedroia and Bogaerts. This has undoubtedly aided the pitching staff, which hasn't been the super-rotation that some predicted but still ranks second in the AL in ERA. BoSox pitchers have been terrific on their own merit, however, issuing the fewest walks in the league and ranking third in strikeouts with more than one whiff per inning. So while their offense has been predicated on avoiding whiffs, their pitchers have thrived by racking them up.

It's impossible to over-state the impact that Chris Sale has had this year, as he's accounted for 1/6 of the team's innings and has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Boston hasn't had a pitcher this dominant since Pedro Martinez, and he's been a true savior since the day he donned a Red Sox uniform, making up for Rick Porcello's regression and the injury woes of David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez (both of whom have been effective when healthy). He's their MVP of the first half. Drew Pomeranz has also stepped up and appears to have settled into Boston after struggling in the second half last year and early this year.

The bullpen has also flourished despite getting nothing from two of the club's top relievers, Carson Smith and Tyler Thornburg. Craig Kimbrel has rebounded after scuffling in his first year with Boston and is having one of the best seasons ever by a modern closer. Joe Kelly has been nearly as good setting him up, becoming the shutdown reliever everyone knew he would be once he was finally freed from the rotation. Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree have been solid in middle relief, while Fernando Abad has pitched much better than his last name would suggest. This strong stable of relievers have helped Boston maintain a winning record (11-9) in one-run games and, more importantly, should be enough to prevent Dave Dombrowski from shipping out more prospects at the trade deadline.

Add it all up and the Red Sox have played as well as their record suggests, with a 51-38 Pythagorean W-L record (plus-65 run differential) to match their 50-39 actual record. They've been lucky in extra-inning games (7-1), but everything else about them appears legitimate and they are trending in the right direction. The rotation will finally be at full strength when Rodriguez returns after the All-Star break, which could allow Boston to pull away from the pack if everyone stays healthy. The Red Sox will also look to capitalize on a favorable schedule that puts 42 of their remaining 73 games at home, where they've gone 25-14 (.641) this year.

Accordingly, the Red Sox don't need to make any major moves at the trade deadline. They're a well-rounded, mostly-complete team with few holes to fill. An upgrade at the hot corner would be nice, but not worthwhile if the plan is to bring Devers up in September (or, if by some miracle, Jhonny Peralta finds his swing in Triple-A). Pitching depth is always appreciated, but not a priority. Firing John Farrell would be a dream come true, but for now that's all it is; a dream.

Sunday, July 2, 2017

Boston's One-Man Wrecking Crew

Betts matched his career high with eight RBIs on Sunday (BoSox Injection)
Mookie Betts has been a streaky hitter throughout his Major League career (just look at his monthly splits from 2015 and 2016), but it's a clear sign that he's hot when he has a game like today's where he ruthlessly pounds the enemy into submission. He was the driving force behind Boston's 15-1 massacre of Toronto this afternoon, slugging a pair of homers and singles while driving in eight runs, setting a new franchise record for RBI by a leadoff man.

While the Red Sox would have won easily even if Betts had gone 0-for-6 rather than 4-for-6, his performance Sunday is just the latest example of him destroying the other team from the batter's box. He's done this several times now since the start of last year:

5/21/16: Betts paces Boston's 9-1 win over Cleveland by going 3-for-5 with a double, two home runs (including a grand slam) and three runs scored. He doubled and scored their first run in the third, extended the lead to 4-0 with a solo shot in the next inning, and put the game out of reach with his grand slam in the seventh. WPA = 0.083

5/31/16: Betts wipes out the Orioles by homering three times and driving in five of Boston's six runs in its 6-2 victory. The Sox cruised after Betts put them up 5-0 through the first inning and a half with his first two homers. He went deep two more times the following day, but no one was on base either team and the Red Sox fell 13-9. WPA = 0.326

8/14/16: Mookie has another three homer game, knocks in eight and scores four during a 4-for-6 effort as Boston routs Arizona 16-2. Until today, this was the gold standard of Betts' monster performances. WPA=0.237

8/16/16: Betts obliterates the Orioles again by going yard twice and driving in all five BoSox runs, fueling a 5-3 victory. Both homers were go-ahead shots, with his first clout shattering a scoreless tie in the fifth and his second putting Boston ahead for good in the eighth. WPA=0.506

6/14/17: Betts powers Boston past Philadelphia, 7-3, by going 4-for-5 with a double, two homers, three RBIs and four runs. Both home runs were solo shots, however, and provided insurance, coming after the Red Sox already led 5-3. WPA=0.228

Betts' ability to have such dominant performances multiple times throughout a season have transformed him into an MVP candidate. Most players are lucky to have one game like that per season, or even in their careers, but Betts has them semi-routinely, jamming a month's worth of production into a handful of games. It's games like these that cement his status as a superstar, proving he can carry a team to victory with his bat on any given night.

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

A History of Great Red Sox Outfields

The Red Sox have a long lineage of talented outfields (Boston Baseball Prospectus)
Before the season began there was an ungodly amount of hype surrounding Boston's young outfield of Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Mookie Betts -- who, you might remember, made the cover of Sports Illustrated (thankfully, the jinx has spared them). Some went so far as to crown them the best outfield in team history, on par with the club's vaunted trio of Jim Rice, Fred Lynn, and Dwight Evans during the mid and late 1970s.

While the current crop certainly has that level of talent (Betts and Benintendi both have Hall of Fame ceilings, while Bradley could wind up being a modern day Reggie Smith), such talk is wildly premature. They haven't even played 100 games together yet! Benintendi's just 22, and it's far too early to project how his career will pan out. Betts -- a superstar on the rise -- has yet to celebrate his 25th birthday and stonewalled Boston's attempts to lock him up last winter, meaning his future in a Red Sox uniform is far from guaranteed. Bradley is the outfield's elder statesman at 27, and yet he's actually the most volatile in terms of performance due to his streakiness. His glove is amazing, but his ebbs and flows at the plate have led some to wonder whether he'll be Clay Buchholz with a bat in his hands.

In any event, this is shaping up to be an outstanding outfield for the next few years at least, and hopefully more. But the Red Sox have been often blessed with many great outfields, going back to their first dynasty a century ago.

Indeed, Boston's original golden outfield consisted of Duffy Lewis in left and Hall of Famers Tris Speaker in center and Harry Hooper in right. The trio led the Olde Towne Team to championships in 1912 and 1915 before Speaker was traded at the start of the '16 season. But so rich with pitching were the Sox that they still won it all without Speaker that year, then won again two years later with Babe Ruth caddying in right when he wasn't pitching.

Following the sale of Ruth in 1920, the Red Sox were largely bereft of talent at all positions throughout the next two decades, but by the late '30s they had once again assembled a stellar outfield. The 1938 trio of Joe Vosmik, Doc Cramer, and Ben Chapman all bettered .300, leaving no room for a brash 19-year-old rookie by the name of Ted Williams, who would have to wait until '39 to get his chance.

The Kid's arrival signaled a changing of the guard, as Dom DiMaggio joined him a year later. By the time Williams was chasing .400 in 1941, Boston had a completely new outfield from the one he'd been shut out of three years prior. Williams and DiMaggio were mainstays into the early '50s, when DiMaggio retired and Williams briefly departed for Korea, but in all that time the Red Sox never found a long-term right fielder to round out their trios. Sam Mele, Stan Spence, and Al Zarilla proved capable, but none stuck.

When Williams returned from Korea, he joined Jim Piersall in center and Jackie Jensen in right. By this point Williams was well into his 30s and increasingly banged up, missing an average of 36 games per season from 1954-1960. While still a fearsome hitter, he was unable to suit up enough to approximate his sublime production during the '40s, when he averaged just under 10 bWAR per season from 1941-1949. Piersall was a defensive wizard in the mold of his precessor, DiMaggio, but didn't stand out offensively. Jensen hit a lot of homers and drove in lots of runs, even stealing the MVP from a vastly more deserving Mickey Mantle in 1958.

The retirements of Williams and Jensen in the early 1960s paved the way for the next great Red Sox outfield, which came together during the franchise's dark days in the middle of the decade. Williams' replacement, Carl Yastrzemski, took over left field in 1961 and quickly emerged as one of the league's best at the position. He was joined in right three years later by teenaged phenom Tony Conigliaro, who immediately made his mark as one of the most prolific young sluggers in baseball history. Reggie Smith completed the outfield during the Impossible Dream summer of '67, finishing as AL Rookie of the Year runner-up. Unfortunately, Red Sox fans never got to see that outfield live up to its potential, as Tony C caught a fastball in the eye and was never the same.

It would be nearly a decade before Jim Ed and Freddie Lynn joined Dwight Evans in Boston, with both receiving cups of coffee in 1974 before bursting onto the scene as Rookie of the Year and MVP frontrunners in '75, leading the Red Sox to their first pennant since '67. The Gold Dust Twins, as they were called, were at their best from 1975-1979, but Evans didn't truly blossom as a hitter until the '80s, by which point Lynn was out west and Rice was past his prime. They never wonted for a third musketeer, however, as the likes of Tony Armas, Mike Greenwell, and Ellis Burks ensured that Boston always had one of the league's top outfields during the '80s.

Once Rice retired in 1989 and Evans left the following year, however, the Red Sox struggled to find an identity for their outfield. After decades of having Cooperstown-bound fixtures patrolling left, right, and center, the Red Sox filled their ranks with a motley crew of solid, if unexceptional veterans. Jack Clark, Otis Nixon, Troy O'LearyReggie Jefferson, Jose Canseco, and the legendary Tom Brunansky all rotated through. It was definitely a weird time for Red Sox outfields, with no real continuity to speak of.

That came to an end, briefly, in the early 2000s, when the Red Sox inked Manny Ramirez to an eight-year, $160 million deal before the 2001 season. He was joined the following season by Johnny Damon, giving the Red Sox an excellent outfield for the first half of the decade with Trot Nixon in right. Together they helped their beleaguered franchise end its 86-year curse in 2004, etching their names in Boston lore.

Until the Killer B's coalesced, however, the mid-2000s to mid-2010s resembled the '90s in that the outfield was constantly in flux. Left field became a revolving door after Manny forced his way out of town, with cameos from Jason Bay, Carl Crawford, Cody Ross, Jonny Gomes, Daniel Nava, and Brock Holt. Coco Crisp didn't materialize into Damon 2.0 while Crisp's successor, Jacoby Ellsbury, was unbearably injury prone. J.D. Drew manned right field for five utterly forgettable seasons before fading away, while Shane Victorino had that one magical year during the 2013 World Series run before breaking down.

That brings us to today, with what is likely the most athletic outfield in Red Sox history. Boston essentially has three center fielders, as all three have played the position. Bradley and Betts are arguably the best defenders at their positions, and Benintendi isn't your typical first baseman/DH masquerading as a left fielder (looking at you, Hanley Ramirez). They're all fast and graceful and have great arms -- they all belong in the outfield. So they're probably the best defensive outfield the team has ever had, plus they can hit, too. And dance. Boy, can they dance.

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Sox Pick Up Peralta, Fister

Fister joined the Bosox Friday and made his season debut two days later (CSNNE)
The Red Sox made a kiddie pool-sized splash on Friday by signing Jhonny Peralta to a Minor League deal and claiming Doug Fister off waivers. Peralta had been linked to Boston since St. Louis designated him for assignment earlier in the month, but the Fister move seemed to come more out of left field. While both were star players a few years ago, they have slipped considerably with age and are unlikely to contribute much to a Boston team that's clearly scrounging for reinforcements.

An All-Star as recently as 2015, Peralta's offense became below average (90 OPS+) as he battled injuries last year before bottoming out to .204/.259/.204 in 58 plate appearances with the Cardinals this year. Now 35, his OPS has fallen every year since 2013 and he's clearly in the twilight of his career. The three-time All-Star had a good run over the last decade, but it's hard to imagine him sparking the offense after failing to record an RBI or extra-base hit in 21 games this season.

Granted, third base has been a black hole for Boston this year, with Pablo Sandoval and co. combining to hit just .198/.250/.308 through Monday. Even a washed-up Peralta would do better than that, but how much better remains to be seen. The Sox are hoping he can find his swing in Pawtucket before calling him up, where Fenway would ostensibly help revitalize his sagging production, although it's worth remembering that the same plan failed with Allen Craig. Their best option remains cutting ties with Sandoval and promoting Rafael Devers, but good luck convincing the front office to swallow the remaining half of Panda's $95 million contract.

The Peralta pickup is reminiscent of last summer when the Red Sox traded not one, but two prospects to land a 34-year-old Aaron Hill from the Brewers. Hill was batting a solid .283/.359/.421 (106 OPS+) at the time but immediately fell apart after arriving in Boston, posting a lowly 53 OPS+ from there on out (Hill has been even worse for the Giants this year, so kudos to Milwaukee for selling high on Hill before he collapsed). At least Dealin' Dave didn't burn any prospects this time around, although he probably dangled a few before being reminded that no, sorry, you can't trade players when signing unrestricted free agents.

While Peralta has yet to take his first cuts in a Red Sox uniform, Fister was immediately thrown into the rotation and started Sunday's series finale against the Angels. While his quality start was encouraging, he's another player who's been trending in the wrong direction the past several seasons, as his walk rate his increased along with his WHIP every year since 2014. His ERA nearly doubled in that time, ballooning from 2.41 in '14 to 4.64 last year as his lack of strikeouts (career 6.0 K/9 rate) caught up with him. The 33-year-old doesn't throw hard and pitches to contact, which is a recipe for disaster at Fenway and in this new era of juiced baseballs. He'll merely be a back-of-the-rotation filler until Eduardo Rodriguez returns from the DL, but until then the Sox are merely hoping he can outpitch the likes of Hector Velazquez, Kyle Kendrick, and others who have filled this role for Boston lately.

With neither player likely to move the needle for the first-place Sox, the best explanation for these acquisitions might be that Dombrowski was familiar with them from their time on the Tigers earlier this decade, when both were markedly better players. Dombrowski originally traded for both, bringing Peralta over from the Indians in 2010 (and immediately re-signing him that winter) before dealing for Fister the following summer. Both excelled under Dombrowski's watch, with Peralta making two All-Star teams in his three full seasons with Detroit while Fister emerged as a solid mid-rotation starter behind Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. Both were sent packing following Detroit's disastrous collapse to Boston in the 2013 ALCS as Peralta left via free agency and Fister was dealt to Washington (in one of the more widely criticized trades of recent times).

Dombrowski watched both players help his Tigers contend for several seasons and knows them well. While he clearly doesn't value prospects, he appears to have a soft spot for over-the-hill veterans.

Friday, June 2, 2017

The Red Sox Mashed in May

After scuffling in April, Boston's offense turned things around in May (CBS Boston)
After leading the majors in a host of hitting categories last year, including runs, hits, doubles, AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS, and total bases, the Red Sox were expected to have one of baseball's best offenses in 2017. Despite losing David Ortiz to retirement, they still boasted a fearsome lineup headed by Hanley Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, and Jackie Bradley--all of whom exceeded an .800 OPS last year. With a healthy Pablo Sandoval, an ascendant Andrew Benintendi and the solid-if-unspectacular Mitch Moreland in the mix, Boston's batting order looked potent on paper.

It was surprising, then, when runs were suddenly hard to come by during season's first month. After averaging 5.4 runs per game in 2016, Boston managed just 3.9 in April. Their power vanished, yielding only 15 home runs and a .111 ISO in 24 games--well below last year's .183 ISO. They were hitting the ball hard and often, but not into the gaps or over the wall with any regularity. A whopping 74 percent of their hits were singles, which obviously isn't ideal, especially for a team that plays its home games in front of a 37-foot high doubles magnet in left field.

The team's best hitters simply weren't driving the ball like they used to. Pedroia managed just one extra-base hit--a double--in 86 plate appearances, failing to live up to his Laser Show nickname. Bogaerts wasn't much better, tallying a mere two extra-base hits (no homers) in 80 plate appearances. Bradley, who's notoriously streaky, began the season in a slump and also totalled just two extra-base hits in April. Ramirez didn't provide his usual thump, taking 15 games to go yard, and Betts cleared the fence only twice in April.

These offensive woes led Bogaerts to voice the team's frustrations by saying how much they missed Ortiz's presence in the middle of the lineup, even though his replacement (Moreland) was their only steady source of power with 12 doubles (but just two homers).

Their paralysis at the plate followed them into the basepaths, where they looked like the station-to-station Red Sox of yesteryear rather than the athletic bunch that ranked sixth in the American League in steals last year. Despite having several players who can impact games with their legs, they didn't take advantage of all the extra stolen base opportunities that resulted from runners being on first base, rather than already in scoring position or back in the dugout after riding one out. But the Sox stole just 10 bases, too often waiting around for home runs that never came.

As the weather warmed, however, so did Boston's bats, producing 5.7 runs per game in May which was good for second in the AL. After never exceeding eight runs in any game during April (which they only did twice), the Red Sox eclipsed double digits five times in May. And after being held to one run or less in six of 24 April games, they only had one such game in 28 May contests.

Boston's average held steady at .269, but its hits went for extra bases much more frequently. They nearly doubled their home run output from 0.63 HR/G to 1.18 HR/G and saw a similar spike in doubles, which rose from 1.63 2B/G to 2.14 2B/G. Their ISO jumped 60 points month-over-month, and suddenly no one was talking about Big Papi anymore. The power surge corresponded to a slight uptick in strikeouts (19.3 K% in April vs. 20.2 K% in May) but an even larger rise in walk rate, which jumped from 8.3 percent to 10.5 percent. As such, the Sox improved their OBP from .334 in April to .351 in May, which also contributed to the bump in runs.

Not surprisingly it was two of Boston's Killer Bees--Betts and Bogaerts--who led the charge, combining for 32 of the team's 96 extra-base hits. Betts slugged seven homers and 10 doubles, giving him the second-most extra-base hits in the Majors last month. Bogaerts was back to his old self, batting .351 with 15 extra-base hits (tied for 10th in the MLB). Pedroia chipped in 10 extra-base hits and 16 RBI while slashing .295/.376/.442 (right in line with his career .301/.366/.443 marks) before landing on the DL. Bradley only had 17 hits in 77 at-bats (.221), but nine of them went for extra bases, including five that left the yard.

It also helped that they were more aggressive on the bases despite starting out in scoring position more frequently. After stealing just 10 bases in 16 attempts during April, the Sox swiped 22 in 28 attempts in May.

With the offense firing on all cylinders and David Price finally healthy, the Red Sox are rounding into form. After going 21-21 to open the season, they won eight of ten to finish May. They still have holes to address at third base (can we get a re-do on that Tyler Thornburg for Travis Shaw trade?) and could use more depth, but overall they appear to be in good shape heading into summer.

One final note is that the Red Sox haven't hit for power at home, with just 16 round-trippers and a ,113 ISO in 27 games at home compared to 33 dingers and a .172 ISO on the road. Fenway isn't a great home run park, but don't expect that trend to continue, especially if the offense is built more around singles and doubles rather than the long ball. Fenway's conditions are ideal for those kinds of hits, so you can bet the Sox will start hanging more crooked numbers on the manual scoreboard in left.

Thursday, June 1, 2017

Who had the Best Non-Ruthian Season?

Who equalled Ruth's 1927 WAR? The answer may surprise you (Historian Insight)
Quick, without looking at the Baseball-Reference WAR leaderboard, which position player not named Babe Ruth had the most WAR in a single season (remembering of course that Ruth owns the three highest and six of the top 12)?

Your first guess (as mine was) might be Barry Bonds circa the early 2000s, when he broke baseball with his videogame numbers. Bonds is up there, but by then his defense and baserunning had deteriorated just enough for him to fall short.

Knowing that, you'd probably be inclined to pick someone who put up insane numbers while manning a premium position, like Rogers Hornsby or Willie Mays. I was certain it was Mickey Mantle, either his Triple Crown season in '56 or his .365/.512/.665 performance the following year, but once again I was wrong.

Another hint: he played left field for the Boston Red Sox.

Well in that case, it has to be Ted Williams! The man batted .406, for goodness sake, while slugging .735 and reaching base 55.3 percent of the time in 1941. All of those marks led the Majors, as did his 135 runs, 147 walks, 37 homers, and 235 OPS+. He struck out just 27 times in 606 plate appearances, and was about as close to perfect as one can be at the plate.

It wasn't him. It was his successor, Carl Yastrzemski, who everyone agrees was not the player Williams was. A tremendous ballplayer and deserving Hall of Famer in his no right, but no Williams.

But the numbers don't lie: The best non-Ruthian season anyone ever had was Yaz's 1967 when he piled up 12.4 WAR, meaning he was effectively as valuable as two All-Stars and a solid regular combined.

WAR is not the end-all, be-all, obviously, and it's only accurate to a certain point. Ranking players based on fractions of WAR is a fool's errand given the stat's margin for error. Still, the closest non-Ruth position player to Yaz is Hornsby's 1924 (12.1 bWAR), which is even less reliable given how long ago that was. Then you have another Ruth season (his first with the Yankees), two years when Bonds was on 'roids ('01 and '02), Lou Gehrig's 1927 (11.8 bWAR), and another Ruth season (1924) before finally getting to Cal Ripken's 1991, which is valued at 11.5 bWAR -- nearly a full win less than Yastrzemski's 1967 total. A good chunk of Ripken's value comes from his positional adjustment too, so one can say with a fair degree of accuracy that Yaz authored the best season by a non-pitcher since Roaring Twenties.

Anecdotally, that checks out. Yaz was superhuman in '67, willing the Sox to the pennant with clutch hitting, superb fielding, and timely baserunning. When Boston needed a homer, he went yard. When he needed a single, he found a hole. He famously went 23-for-44 (.523) over the final 12 games of the regular season, becoming almost impossible to retire. Hall of Famer Bobby Doerr, who was a coach on that team, called it the greatest season he'd ever seen, and he was Teddy Ballgame's teammate when The Kid batted .406 and won a pair of Triple Crowns. Everyone who saw him play that summer have said similar things over the past half-century, solidifying its place as one of the greatest seasons ever (and only growing with stature when so many seasons passed without another Triple Crown).

From a numbers standpoint, though, I just can't quite wrap my brain around it. His raw stats are great, obviously, but they're not misprints. His Triple Crown figures of 44 homers, 121 RBIs, and a .326 average typically wouldn't be enough to lead one category, let alone all three. There are players who exceeded his .418 OBP and .622 SLG for their whole careers, Williams included, and even Yaz nearly outdid himself three years later. His 193 OPS+ is exceptional, but only the 78th-highest mark of all time. He stole 10 bases but was caught eight times. He played phenomenal defense, but left field is the easiest position to play besides first base (especially in Boston, where there's little ground to cover). '67 was a brutal year for hitters, but Fenway Park was also the best hitter's park in baseball at the time. As such, Yastrzemski's neutralized batting line of .334/.427/.638 is only marginally better than his real one.

WAR doesn't even incorporate Win Probability Added or Base-Out Runs Added, both of which he led the league in and would have given him a considerable boost. So...what gives?

Well, his offense alone was worth nearly 10 wins that year, which is pretty incredible. He generated 69 batting runs--more than Miguel Cabrera ever had. Throw in his outstanding defense (he led AL left fielders in putouts and assists) and plus baserunning, shake it all up in the magic WAR blender, and voila! You get 12.4 bWAR, the same total that Ruth produced during his 1927 season, when he swatted 60 homers.

I guess it's telling that since 1967, three players have exceeded 60 homers (six times in all), but only one man has won a Triple Crown. And for the record, Ruth never won a Triple Crown.

Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Boston's Lucky Number Seven

Is 7 Boston's lucky number? (Slow Trav)
The last time a year ended with a seven, the Red Sox won the World Series. Heading into 2017, they were favored to win again, which would be their ninth in franchise history and fourth of this millennium. Here's how their seasons have played out in previous years ending in seven (a real mixed bag, with some great seasons offset by some terrible ones):

1907 (59-90, 7th place out of 8)
This was not a good year for the Boston Americans, who would change their name to the Red Sox the following year. A dark cloud hovered over the season following player-manager Chick Stahl's suicide in late March, which left the organization scrambling to replace him on the eve of Opening Day. A franchise-record four managers presided over the club's second straight underwhelming season, although it represented an improvement over their 105-loss last-place finish the year before. Boston's offense was abysmal, averaging 3.12 runs per game and ranking last in scoring, steals, average, OBP, and OPS as none of the regulars batted .290 or posted a .700 OPS. As a result, the pitching staff received little run support and every hurler besides Cy Young (21-15, 1.99 ERA), Cy Morgan (6-6, 1.97 ERA), and Beany Jacobson (two innings) ended up with a losing record. It would be 15 years before Boston endured another season so poor.

1917 (90-62, 2nd place out of 8)
After winning consecutive World Series in 1915-16, the Red Sox finished nine games out after battling the Chicago White Sox for much of the summer. Boston's offense was ordinary, ranking middle of the pack in most categories, but the pitching was phenomenal. 22-year-old Babe Ruth won 24 games and fashioned a 2.01 ERA while completing 35 of his 38 starts -- most in the Majors. He was joined by another 20-game winner in Carl Mays, who went 22-9 and had a slightly better season than Ruth in terms of run prevention (1.74 ERA). Despite all their talent, the Red Sox were unable to match the World Series-winning White Sox, who won another pennant two years later before forever going down in infamy as the Black Sox.

1927 (51-103, 8th place out of 8)
Everyone remembers this season for Ruth's 60 homers, but unfortunately none of them came for Boston. He was now entrenched with the Yankees and part of one of the greatest teams ever assembled in Murderer's Row. Boston, meanwhile, had been stripped for parts and lost over the 100 games for the third straight season. The lineup was once again last in scoring (plus all three rate stats) while none of the regular pitchers had an ERA under four. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, they would endure another half-decade of misery before Tom Yawkey purchased the club and began turning things around.

1937 (80-72, 5th place out of 8)
Boston's 80 wins were their most since 1917 as all of Yawkey's spending began to pay off. Having recently acquired stars such as Joe Cronin, Jimmie Foxx, and Lefty Grove, Boston was finally moving in the right direction. While an improvement over recent editions, the offense was only middle-of-the-road and the pitching staff was thoroughly mediocre aside from Grove and Jack Wilson. Most notable was the debut of 19-year-old second baseman Bobby Doerr, who struggled initially (.626 OPS) but quickly established himself as one of the team's most valuable position players over the next decade and a half, punching his ticket to Cooperstown in the process.

1947 (83-71, 3rd place out of 8)
Hopes were high for Boston following its World Series appearance in '46, but a wave of sore arms dashed any hopes for a repeat. Dave Ferriss, Tex Hughson, and Mickey Harris were all victims, causing the burden to fall on the shoulders of Joe Dobson (a fine pitcher, but no ace) and Denny Galehouse. The offense dropped off some as well, with several players like Doerr and Rudy York proving unable to sustain their '46 performance. One player who did was Johnny Pesky, who led the Majors in hits for the third straight year that he was active (excluding the war years of 1943-1945). Another was Ted Williams, who won his second Triple Crown but was denied a second straight MVP award, as voters inexplicably chose Dom DiMaggio's big brother from the pennant-winning Yanks.
Williams had superb individual seasons on 3rd place clubs in '47 & '57 (ABC News)
1957 (82-72, 3rd place out of 8)
The Red Sox took over third place for good the day after Independence Day, but the highlight of the summer was Teddy Ballgame nearly hitting .400 again, ultimately settling at .388. As Williams told it, word had gone around the league that he could no longer pull the ball with power at age 38, leading opponents to abandon the shift against them. This opened things up for Williams, who also posted the second-highest home run total of his career with 38. Despite leading the Majors in hitting, OBP (.526), SLG (.731), OPS (1.257) and OPS+ (233), Williams lost out on another MVP to a Yankee center fielder (Joe DiMaggio's heir, Mickey Mantle). Offensively, he had help from Jackie Jensen and Frank Malzone (103 RBIs each), while center fielder Jim Piersall paced the club with 103 runs and 14 steals. Frank Sullivan was the staff leader in ERA (2.73) and innings (240 2/3) -- 2 1/3 more than Tom Brewer, who topped the rotation with 16 wins and 128 strikeouts.

1967 (1st place out of 10)
50 years after the Impossible Dream team gave birth to Red Sox Nation, their legacy still endures. At this point pretty much everything about the team is legend, from Billy Rohr's one-hitter and Jose Tartabull's throw to Tony Conigliaro's beaning and Carl Yastrzemski's September heroics. In classic Red Sox tradition, the Cardiac Kids mashed their way to October by leading the loop in nearly every hitting category, making up for a pitching staff that ranked third-to-last in the AL in ERA despite boasting the league's Cy Young winner in Jim Lonborg. And while most Boston teams became infamous for losing the final game of the season when everything was on the line (see: 1948, '49, and '78 editions), this resilient bunch clinched a pair of must-win games at home to close out the regular season and secure their first pennant in 21 years. Unfortunately, Bob Gibson proved too much for them to overcome in the Fall Classic, although things might have turned out differently for the BoSox had they not traded Earl Wilson the previous summer.

1977 (97-64, 2nd out of 7)
The '77 team boasted one of the most potent lineups in franchise history, slugging 213 home runs as five players cleared 25 and three others reached double digits. Carlton Fisk had the best season of his Hall of Fame career, George Scott returned from Milwaukee to belt 33 taters, and Butch Hobson had a career year with 30 homers and 112 RBIs at the hot corner. A resurgent Yaz slugged 28 homers and batted .296 at age 37, while Jim Rice's 39 dingers, .593 SLG and 382 total bases led the league. Even Bernie Carbo posted a gaudy .931 OPS in 86 games. The pitching struggled, however, with nobody exceeding 200 innings or 15 wins as Luis Tiant, Rick Wise, Fergie Jenkins, Reggie Cleveland, and Bill Lee all had underwhelming or injury-plagued seasons. The bright spot of the staff was fireman Bill Campbell, who was an All-Star and led the league in saves after signing on with Boston as one of baseball's first big free agents. His 2.96 ERA was the best on the team and was sustained over 140 innings in 69 appearances, enabling him to lead the staff with 13 wins. A strong September showing (22-9) wasn't enough to win the division, as the Red Sox finished tied for second with Baltimore, 2.5 games behind (who else?) New York. Fun fact; this was the lone season that legendary sports scribe Bob Ryan served as the Sox beat writer for The Boston Globe.

1987 (78-84, 5th place out of 7)
Fresh off a devastating defeat to the New York Mets in the previous year' s Fall Classic, the Red Sox were told by manager John McNamara to forget everything that happened in '86. That included how well they played before literally dropping the ball, as they plummeted to 78-84 and fifth place. Despite the disappoint record, several players enjoyed tremendous individual campaigns. Dwight Evans enjoyed a career year, setting personal bests in all three slash stats (.305/.417/.569) as well as home runs (34) and RBIs (123). He wasn't the only one having a banner year in the power department, as Wade Boggs tripled his home run output from the previous season (with a career-high 24) while winning his third straight batting title (.363) and leading the majors in OBP (.461) and the league in OPS (1.049) and position player WAR (8.3). The only American League worth more wins above replacement was teammate Roger Clemens, who cruised to his second straight Cy Young with the most wins (20), complete games (18), and shutouts (7) in the majors. Other highlights included Bruce Hurst's only All-Star nod and rookie center fielder Ellis Burks going 20/20 (but not receiving a single Rookie of the Year vote).

1997 (78-84, 4th place out of 5)
'97 was a bridge year for the Red Sox, with this being the season following Clemens' departure and Pedro Martinez's arrival. As such, the team did not have enough arms to compete, but it did receive a boost from AL Rookie of the Year Nomar Garciaparra. Nomar instantly became a fan favorite, leading the league in hits (209) and triples (13) while swatting 30 homers, stealing 22 bases, and batting .306/.342/.534. Garciaparra was one of seven Sox players to eclipse .300 over at least 300 plate appearances. Mo Vaughn provided the pop with a team-high 35 homers to go along with 96 RBIs and a .315/.420/.560 slash line. The pitching was a disaster, however, and Boston narrowly avoided finishing last in the division in its first season under Jimy Williams, beating out Toronto by two games.

2007 (96-66, 1st place out of 5)
This was the season that cemented Boston's status as a baseball dynasty in the first decade of the 2000s. The Red Sox won their first division title since 1995, finally breaking the Yankees' stranglehold on the AL East, before sweeping the ALDS and World Series en route to their second championship in four years. While mostly a veteran club with some familiar faces from the '04 title run (David Ortiz, Curt Schilling, Manny Ramirez, Jason Varitek), these Sox were infused by new additions Daisuke Matsuzaka, J.D. Drew, and Julio Lugo while receiving boosts from youngsters like Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, and AL Rookie of the Year Dustin Pedroia. This team was a powerhouse, posting a Pythagorean record of 101-61, and was also well balanced, leading the league in ERA and fewest hits allowed while running the league's second-highest OPS. This year did not signal a changing of the guard in the AL East, however, as Boston didn't win another division title until 2013.