Stanton Finally Realizing Potential

It's taken Stanton nearly a decade to put it all together (SI.com)

Last night, Giancarlo Stanton matched his career high for home runs in a season...at 37.

That number feels preposterously low for a slugger of Stanton's stature and caliber. After all, we're talking about a guy with one of the five best HR-per-AB ratios in baseball history. We're talking about a guy who's absurdly strong, a guy who did this. And this. Annnd this (don't worry, there's plenty more where those came from). Every time he goes deep he seems to re-write the record books by hitting a ball where no one has before. He is, without a doubt, one of the most powerful and most electrifying players in baseball history, not to mention the highest paid professional athlete on the planet.

By comparison, his numbers have always felt supremely disappointing. You look at Stanton's Baseball-Reference page and think Really? That's it? No 50-homer seasons, or even a 40-homer season. No MVPs. There's some black ink there, but it's pretty sparse. His list of most similar batters is even more underwhelming, littered with the likes of Richard Hidalgo, Brad Hawpe, Mark Trumbo, Carlos Quentin, and Russell Branyan. There's not a single Hall of Famer in his top 10, or anyone who came even remotely close, for that matter. Pretty soon you start asking yourself; the Marlins paid $325 million for this guy?!

They sure did, and at the time, nobody questioned it. Everyone knows what Stanton's capable of, even if his statistics have only provided a glimpse.

Like most players with Cooperstown-level ability, Stanton was destined for greatness from the beginning. After earning a promotion to the Majors at age 20 in 2010, he proceeded to belt 22 home runs in his first 100 games. He followed that up with 34 the following year and 37 in 2012, despite missing 39 games because of knee surgery. With his home run totals on the rise and still several years away from his prime, Stanton seemed poised to dominate the leaderboards for years to come.

Because of injuries, however, that hasn't happened. Stanton slumped to .249 with 24 homers in 2013 while missing two months with a strained hamstring. He bounced back in 2014 and was challenging Clayton Kershaw for NL MVP honors before a fastball to the face ended his season on September 11th, leaving him stuck on 37 homers. He was so far ahead of the pack that year that he still led the National League in long balls and total bases (299) despite missing the last three weeks of the season.

When Stanton returned in 2015, he was a man on a mission. By the final week in June he already had 27 home runs and 67 RBIs in 74 games. He was just laying waste to the league, and it seemed like everything was coming together for the 25-year-old. Until he broke the hammate bone on his left hand, ending his season on June 26th. We'll never know what he would have done during the second half, when power figures started rising across the sport.

2016 brought more of the same for Stanton, who slumped to .240 but still slugged 27 homers in 119 games.  Many were beginning to wonder if he would ever stay healthy. enough to log a full season. In his first seven, he averaged only 118 games and 426 at-bats per year, missing roughly a quarter of the season each year. He had reached his prime and still wasn't a dominant player, with just one home run crown and one 100-RBI season under his belt. Six players hit more home runs from 2010-2016, all of whom are well into their 30s or retired now. The next Babe Ruth he was not.

This year, at the magic age of 27, that's finally changed. Stanton's healthy, having played all but two of Miami's 110 games, and he's crushing the ball. He's taken advantage of the new home run environment to match his best home run total in 15 fewer games than 2012 and 37 fewer games than 2014. He's not going to win MVP as long as Bryce Harper's healthy, but he should blow most of his previous career highs out of the water in a season that finally feels worthy of the hype (and the money).

(*August 9th update: Stanton slugged his 38th home run last night, establishing a new career high. He now has five home runs in his last five games and leads the Majors with 12 dingers since the All-Star break)

Stanton Worth $300 Million

Stanton's a superstar worthy of superstar money (Baseball-Fever)

There aren't many baseball players I would invest $300 million in right now. In fact, I could probably count them all on one hand (Mike Trout for sure, Yasiel Puig's another). All I can say is that Giancarlo Stanton's definitely one of them.

Stanton, this year's NL MVP runner-up and a two-time All-Star, is has done nothing but mash in his five big league seasons. Just 25, he's already blasted 154 home runs (31 per season), won two league slugging titles, and compiled 21.2 bWAR. His career batting line of .271/.364/.540 is 43 percent above average after adjustments for league and park, making him the tenth-best hitter in baseball since his debut. His most similar batter to date is Juan Gonzalez, a two-time MVP who slammed 434 career home runs. The Marlins should be thrilled if Stanton's career turns out like Juan Gone's.

Stanton's not a one-dimensional slugger like Gonzalez was. He's a capable right fielder with a strong arm. Stanton's also a solid baserunner for his size, having succeeded in 20 of his last 23 stolen base attempts. He's not a burner by any means, but he knows when to swipe a bag and isn't a liability on the basepaths like most burly sluggers.

Put it all together and Stanton's a superstar who should remain elite for the foreseeable future, at least through the rest of the decade. If he continues to be worth five to six wins per year, that's going to justify an annual salary above $30 million. Give him 10 years, and that will take him through his age 34 season, at which point he'll still be young enough to be productive. Most long-term deals accept dead-weight on the backend, but it's possible this one won't. The Marlins may well get their money's worth for the full 10 years, if that's indeed what they plan on doing.

Miami's not known for spending big money (save for their bizarre spending spree a few years back), but Stanton's worth breaking the bank for. He's somebody to build a franchise around, and he figures to be very good for a long time.

Stanton, Trout Deserved Hank Aaron Award

Trout (left) and Stanton earned some much-deserved hardware (SportsPyder)

While MLB awards season is not quite yet underway, there was some notable hardware handed out the other day. Before Game 4 of the World Series, Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton were named the 2014 winners of the Hank Aaron Award, presented by none other than Hammerin' Hank himself. Aaron votes for the award, as do the fans and a panel of Hall of Famers comprised of Roberto Alomar, Johnny Bench, Paul Molitor, Eddie Murray, Frank Thomas, and Robin Yount.

The award, which serves to recognize the best offensive performer in each league, was an easy call in the Junior Circuit. Trout was once again the most valuable position player in baseball, leading the sport in WAR and oWAR for the third straight year. His 137 runs created and 8.7 oWAR led both leagues, as did his 115 runs, 338 total bases, and 84 extra base hits. In addition to his American League-leading 111 RBI, he also swatted 36 home runs and 39 doubles to go along with his .939 OPS, good for a 167 OPS+. He unseated two-time defending champion Miguel Cabrera and should do the same in the MVP award as well.

Stanton was not quite as dominant as Trout but still had a phenomenal season in his own right, posting the fourth-highest OBP, SLG, and OPS in baseball. His 37 home runs, .555 slugging percentage and 299 total bases were tops in the National League, as were his 14.6 AB/HR ratio, 69 extra base hits, and 24 intentional walks. Per Baseball-Reference, only Andrew McCutchen--Stanton's closest competition for the award--had a higher Adjusted OPS+, more runs created, and a higher oWAR total than Stanton among National Leaguers. Had he not been beaned in the face with 17 games still remaining on the schedule, Stanton would have likely finished the season with around 40 home runs, 120 RBI, 100 runs and walks, and well over 300 total bases--gaudy totals that reflect just how dominant a year Stanton was having at the time of his injury.

One could certainly make the case that McCutchen was slightly more deserving in the Senior Circuit, but the numbers say they're a virtual toss up. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference rate McCutchen as the slightly more valuable offensive player, and since he played just one more game than Stanton it's not like that difference can be chalked up to Stanton's injury. And while McCutchen only led Stanton by two points in OPS, the former's OPS was significantly more valuable after adjustments for league and park (eight point difference in OPS+, nine in wRC+) and when OBP and SLG are properly weighted (with 'Cutch ahead in wOBA .412 to .403). In terms of baserunning they come out about even, so that doesn't move the needle either way.

All things considered, McCutchen was probably more deserving by the slimmest of margins, but he and Stanton are so close that I can't blame the voters for being seduced by the latter's titanic big flies and monster power figures. Those kinds of numbers, especially in today's offense-challenged climate, are impossible to ignore. Stanton's season definitely felt more dominant, and with the benefit of a healthy September I think he beats McCutchen by a nose.

Just to wrap things up quickly here, Stanton and Trout are first-time winners but are likely to repeat given their age. Stanton is not yet 25 and Trout is just 23. Two of the most exciting talents in the game, both appear to have many fine seasons ahead of them.

Stanton Slugging Way to MVP

Stanton's superstar-caliber season should result in his first MVP award (RantSports)

Four weeks ago I wrote that given injuries to Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutchen, Yasiel Puig had emerged as the new favorite for National League MVP because of his Mike Trout-esque production. But in light of Puig's recent offensive struggles (.185/.279/.217 with no home runs and four RBI since August 4th) his stock has fallen considerably.

During the same time Giancarlo Stanton's stock has risen substantially. With nine long balls, 27 RBI and a 1.078 OPS over the past four weeks, Stanton enjoyed one of his best stretches of the season during the dog days of August. And after slugging his 35th home run of the season last night, becoming the first player in either league to reach 100 RBI in the process, it's clear that if the season ended today Stanton would deserve to walk away with MVP honors.

He is, according to bWAR, the second-most valuable position player in the National League behind Jason Heyward (much of whose value derives from his defense) and third overall behind Clayton Kershaw and Heyward. FanGraphs rates him as the most valuable batter in the Senior Circuit, just a smidge above Jonathan Lucroy and tops among all major leaguers in WPA.

Of course, by most conventional metrics Stanton is clearly the best hitter in the National League. He ranks first in home runs and RBI, walks and OBP, total bases and SLG, OPS and OPS+, and a host of other categories like extra base hits, runs created, times on base, and adjusted batting runs. He's been incredibly durable, playing in all 137 of the Marlins' games thus far, a force in the middle of their lineup everyday.

But, contrary to what those who voted Miguel Cabrera over Trout the last two years believe, the MVP award should not simply go to the best hitter. It should go to the most valuable player which, in the case of a position player, includes defense and baserunning. Cabrera was clearly a liability in those two facets of the game, but Stanton is not. He plays a decent right field and runs the bases well for a big man, with 10 stolen bases in 11 attempts and three baserunning runs above average this year. He's not a well-rounded superstar like Trout or McCutchen, but he's not a one-dimensional slugger like Cabrera, either.

And to those who say an MVP must come from a winning team (and ignore the fact that one player has no control over how his teammates play or his front office constructs a roster), please take note of how much the Marlins have improved from last year. In 2013 with Stanton missing more than a quarter of the season, Miami lost 100 games and finished last in the NL East. This year, despite losing reigning Rookie of the Year and staff ace Jose Fernandez to Tommy John surgery in May, the Marlins have won almost as many games as they've lost and are third in their division. Few expected Miami to have anything close to a winning record, especially after losing an elite arm so early in the season.

But Stanton, to his credit, has carried the Marlins offense and helped keep the team within shouting distance of the second wild card. He's been integral to one of this season's most unlikely turnarounds, keeping Miami afloat long after it should have slipped beneath the waves. Stanton's made the Marlins relevant again. That might not be as sexy as leading a team to a division title, but after seeing how low they sunk last year it's still pretty darn impressive.