McCutchen MVP No More

With McCutchen and Tulowitzki sidelined, the NL MVP is Puig's for the taking

For most of the year it looked like Troy Tulowitzki was going to walk away with NL MVP honors on the strength of his terrific hitting and superlative defense at shortstop. Then he got hurt, as he always does, and his annual trip to the DL has cost him almost three weeks and counting. The injury, combined with his team's last place standing, knocks him off the top of the MVP pyramid. Barring a repeat of his September 2010 performance (15 homers, 40 RBI) he ain't winning.

The next best candidate appeared to be last year's MVP, Andrew McCutchen, but now it seems safe to say that he won’t be the MVP again in 2014. With a fractured rib shelving him for 3-4 weeks and possibly into September, McCutchen’s hopes of repeating were effectively dashed. So with the door wide open, who’s next in line?

Clayton Kershaw’s now the odds-on favorite, and with the kind of season he's having there's a pretty good chance he pulls a Justin Verlander by copping both the Cy Young and MVP awards. (Quick aside, if those ill-fated 2011 Red Sox roll through September the way they did the rest of that season, Jacoby Ellsbury probably wins that MVP. If Boston had won 100 games while playing in baseball’s toughest division, like they were on pace to do, there's no way the MVP goes to a pitcher whose team could have won its division with an 81-81 record. And if Verlander wins 19 games instead of 24, it's not even a discussion).

But Kershaw's missed more than month and that has to be a big strike against him. Obviously if he continues to dominate down the stretch he’ll have a great case, one worth overlooking the lost time. That said, voters have always been more inclined to favor position players rather than pitchers, who already have a hard enough time as it is winning the MVP when they’re healthy. You might recall that before Verlander, a starting pitcher hadn't been named MVP since Roger Clemens in 1986. Position players can afford to miss time and still earn the hardware (see Mickey Mantle in 1962 or Josh Hamilton in 2010), but pitchers, because they pitch so infrequently, aren't granted that same latitude. I can’t remember the last time a starting pitcher missed a good chunk of time and went on to win the MVP, which leads me to believe Kershaw will have a difficult time pulling it off. But if he goes off an another scoreless innings streak, all bets are off.

I also think that in today’s offense-challenged climate, a big bat is more valuable that a good arm. It’s elite hitting, not starting pitching, that’s in short supply, so a guy who can hit .300 with good power and gets on base is especially valuable. I think if you take away Kershaw and replace him with an average pitcher, then Zack Greinke’s the ace (of a staff with Hyun-jin Ryu, Josh Beckett, and Dan Haren) and the Dodgers are still okay.  Maybe they don't win the division, but they're still a playoff team. Remove Yasiel Puig from LA's lineup, however, and I’m not convinced they score enough runs to make their pitching stand up, not with injuries to Carl Crawford and Hanley Ramirez and poor seasons from A.J. Ellis, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, and Matt Kemp (who's only been good recently).

So this is a long-winder, roundabout way of saying that the best remaining MVP candidate is Puig, who’s having a Mike Trout-lite season, so to speak. His .316/.400/.540 batting line is huge, especially for someone who plays half his games in Dodger Stadium (which is reflected by his 165 OPS+). With 4.0 bWAR, Puig has been his team's best position player by far, propping up a star-studded lineup that's under-performed its talent level. And while he doesn't lead the league in anything, he's in the top 10 for almost everything and should only climb higher with Tulo and 'Cutch on the mend.

Puig would boost his chances significantly by making up the distance between him and those two. Time is on his side and ripe for him to raise his stock. But he must keep hitting. He needs to rediscover the power stroke that has all but abandoned him since late May (two homers and 16 RBI in his last 56 games). He has to finish strong.

Because if he doesn't, then it's going to be that much easier to choose Kershaw.

Verlander Losing His Touch

Verlander's been a mess for over a full calendar year now (DynastySportsEmpire)

As much as it pains me to say this, I think we've seen the best of Justin Verlander.

It's hard to believe how far he's fallen since the beginning of last year, when he was still widely regarded as the best pitcher on the planet. After two straight incredible seasons, the first six weeks of 2013 were business as usual for the 2011 American League MVP and Cy Young recipient. Through May 10th he had a 1.55 ERA and 50/13 K/BB ratio through 46-and-one-third innings. Opponents were batting just .222/.276/.287 with one home run against him. He was as unhittable as ever.

In the 13 months since, he's been thoroughly mediocre. He was average at best over the remainder of 2013, with an ERA just a hair below four, and has been brutal this year. Not including the postseason, over his last 41 starts he's compiled a 4.51 ERA, more than a run above his career mark. His WHIP has been 1.42 after staying below one in 2011 and 2012 combined, and his K/BB rate, which cleared four in 2011 and '12 combined, has fallen to 2.32.

All metrics--traditional, advanced, and velocity--indicate Verlander is a pitcher in decline. He's less accurate and slower, and at 31 will probably never be the same.

With both his walks and hits on the rise, it's easy to see why Verlander's struggled so much. His walk rate has climbed steadily from 2 BB/9 in 2011 to 2.3 in 2012, 3.1 last year and 3.8 so far this year, which would be his worst since 2008, when his ERA was almost five. His command hasn't just slipped, it's gotten terrible. His walk rate has nearly doubled in the span of three years.

He's also become more hittable. Since allowing just 6.2 H/9 in 2011, the best mark in baseball that year, his hit rate has risen to 7.3 in 2012, 8.7 the year after that and 9.7 this year. He's been battered for more than one hit per inning during his 41-start malaise.

I'm sure there's some bad luck in there, as his BABiP has been the third-highest in baseball dating back to the start of last season, likely a combination of bad luck and Detroit's iffy infield defense. His ERA exceeded his FIP last year (3.46 to 3.28) and this year (4.61 to 3.98), which also suggests bad fortune. His left-on-base percentage is well below the league average this year as well.

Still, there's no getting around the fact that Verlander simply isn't the dominant hurler he used to be. What's most troubling about his poor start to this season is that his strikeout rate has fallen off a cliff. After holding steady around one batter per inning in each of the last three years, it's nosedived to 6.6 K/9 this year. It hasn't been below 8.8 since 2008, his worst full year in the majors. This decline is most readily explained by his diminishing fastball velocity, which has slipped every year since 2009 and is now the lowest it's ever been. Verlander simply can't reach back for the heat to blow hitters away like he used to, which probably has something to do with the fact that he's thrown more innings than any pitcher in baseball since the start of the 2006 season (Verlander's rookie year).

It' clear a change in the way Verlander attacks hitters is needed, and until he adapts he's going to continue to struggle like he has recently. The six-time All-Star has been brutal lately, allowing at least five earned runs in five of his last six starts and 35 runs (31 earned) over his past 37 and two-thirds innings. He's surrendered six home runs and walked 18 while striking out only 24. Once an ace and Detroit's most reliable starter, he's nothing more than an average hurler at best. In those 41 starts I mentioned, the Tigers have gone 18-23. Yep, they've been a sub-.500 team with Verlander on the mound for more than a year now.

Here are some more startling stats: since the start of last year, Verlander has a worse ERA than Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Vargas, Jorge De La Rosa, and Travis Wood. His FIP is worse than Bartolo Colon's and barely better than Jose Quintana's and Justin Masterson's. His K/BB ratio has been bested by 53 qualified pitchers, including A.J. Griffin, Eric Stults, Dillon Gee, Lance Lynn, and A.J. Burnett.

Once the best pitcher on the face of the earth, Verlander has been the worst starting pitcher on his own team this year. His sudden fall from grace is a stark reminder that even the best pitcher can practically lose it overnight. Look what happened to CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, and Roy Halladay. One second they're on top of the world, and the next they're just another pitcher. I didn't think I'd be saying this for a few more years, but it seems that Verlander is precisely that: just another pitcher.

The Tigers, who owe him $28 million per season over the next five years and will probably be on the hook for another $22 million in 2020, better hope that's not the case. Otherwise the former MVP and Cy Young winner will have a new title for the rest of the decade: the most expensive innings-eater in baseball history.

Verlander, Posey Make Bank

Justin Verlander and Buster Posey just got a whole lot richer.

The best players at their respective positions (and former MVPs) became the most recent additions to baseball's ever-growing $100 million contract club. Following a winter in which David Wright, Evan Longoria, Zack Greinke, Josh Hamilton, and Felix Hernandez signed nine-figure contracts, Posey and Verlander secured massive paydays for themselves.

Posey inked a nine-year, $164 million contract extension with the San Francisco Giants to rival Joe Mauer's $184 million dollar deal for most money ever given to a backstop. Like Mauer, Posey is a fan favorite expected to be the face of his franchise. His deal includes a full no-trade clause as well as a club option for 2022, so it seems safe to say he'll stick around in San Francisco for the next decade at least.

Posey just turned 26 but has already accomplished more than many players do in their entire careers. He's been named Rookie of the Year, Most Valuable Player, and Comeback Player of the Year. He owns a pair of World Series rings, a batting title and a Silver Slugger award. He's started an All-Star Game and won a batting title. Better yet, he's just coming into his prime and should be a superstar for years to come.

Justin Verlander's extension makes his contract the richest for a pitcher in the history of the sport, topping the $175 million Seattle gave to Felix Hernandez in February. Verlander was already signed through 2014 and will rake in $20 million in both of the next two seasons before his five-year, $140 million contract kicks in. His deal also includes a $22 million vesting option for 2020.

Though the Tiger ace just turned 30, he's one of the sport's most durable hurlers, not to mention most dominant. I can't argue against paying top dollar for elite starting pitching because if there's any workhorse worth breaking the bank for, it's Verlander. The reigning AL champs can only hope that Verlander's career doesn't fizzle out in his 30s like Johan Santana's or Pedro Martinez's.

The real question is: which baseball star is next in line to re-up with his team for big money? Will the Yankees keep Robinson Cano? Can Boston afford Jacoby Ellsbury? Will the Giants invest in Tim Lincecum, too?

Only time will tell.