Sandoval Shaping Up

Can a slimmed-down Sandoval save his career? (Boston CBS Local)

Pablo Sandoval was probably pretty disappointed when he found out he was going to need season-ending shoulder surgery last May. Nobody wants to be told they’re done for the year when it’s only just begun, especially when your only memorable highlight was busting your belt. If there’s a silver lining from Sandoval's lost season, however, it’s that surgery might yet save his career.

Because let’s face it; even if he'd stayed healthy, Sandoval wasn't going to offer much last year. Coming off the worst season of his career, he arrived at spring training overweight (again), failed to bat said weight and wound up losing his starting job to a player making $17 million less than him. Sandoval rode the pine in April, appearing in just three games as Travis Shaw and the Red Sox got off to torrid starts.

Sandoval was stuck. His team had little use for him while his contract and recent performance made him untradeable. So he wasted away on the bench, watching Shaw’s success systematically destroy whatever shot he had at redemption in 2016.

Now, with Shaw out of the picture, Sandoval has another opportunity to get back in Boston’s good graces. He wisely used his time off to get in "the best shape of his life" and prove he’s serious about his conditioning. Hopefully he also used that time to fix his swing and work on his defense, but both should improve if he maintains his svelte physique.

A year off could do Sandoval wonders. It certainly did for John Lackey, another West Coast star who initially struggled upon signing a big contract with the Red Sox. After pitching at a historically awful level in 2011, Lackey missed all of ’12 recovering from Tommy John surgery. It was a turning point in his career, as a slimmed-down Lackey returned to form in 2013 and is still going strong into his late 30s.

After last year, Sandoval has nowhere to go but up. It’s not hard to imagine him having a similar renaissance in 2017, given that he’ll only be 30. He’ll also be extra motivated to prove himself after everything that's happened since he landed in Boston.

On the other hand, going under the knife may only hasten Sandoval’s decline. Adrian Gonzalez fell off significantly as a hitter following the same procedure, which doesn’t bode well for Sandoval -- a much lesser hitter to start with. He may also find that taking a whole year off severely disrupts his timing, which could prevent him from having the kind of start he needs to secure regular playing time again (Shaw may be gone, but Brock Holt and Rafael Devers are looming).

How the rest of Sandoval’s career plays out will likely be decided by what he does over the next calendar year. If he keeps the weight off and recovers the skills he showed in San Francisco, he'll return from the abyss. But if his body balloons and his struggles persist, he may lose his job for good.

Panda's Poor Attitude

Sandoval did not slim down following his disastrous 2015 (Boston Globe)

Pablo Sandoval doesn't think he has something to prove.

Well guess what, when you're making $19 million a year, you always have something to prove: namely, why you're getting paid so much in the first place. That's why Alex Rodriguez took steroids, even though he already had more natural talent than anyone in the game. As the owner of the richest contract in sports, he felt he had to be the best at his craft--and he was.

 

Sandoval clearly doesn't feel the same way, especially if he truly doesn't view last year as a disappointment. It wasn't just the worst season of his career, but the worst by a position player who qualified for the batting title last year. Disappointing is an understatement.

But then, if Sandoval did feel like he had something to prove or regretted his performance last year, he might have actually tried to shed some pounds over the winter. Instead, he arrived at Spring Training looking like an over-stuffed panda bear (see above).

I know the Red Sox said they don't care about their third baseman's weight, but they have to be at least a little miffed that he didn't show up in the "best shape of his life." Hanley Ramirez was just as bad as Sandoval last year, and he came to camp noticeably slimmer. That's typical, as most athletes do everything they can to get themselves in peak physical condition following a down year. If they're truly over-the-hill, they need to know it's because their reflexes are too slow or they've lost a few miles off their fastball, but not because they're out of shape. They don't want laziness to be the reason they're out of a job.

 

Instead, Sandoval continues to slide, as 2015 marked the fourth straight year in which his production declined.

Sandoval has no excuse for not taking care of himself, not when 40 year-olds like David Ortiz and A-Rod look considerably better than he does. And they don't even have to play the field. Sandoval mans third base--a position that requires agility and being quick on your feet. You would think he'd want to slim down after rating as one of the worst defensive third-sackers in the game last year.

You would also think he'd grow tired of becoming a punchline every spring, of seeing the internet littered with unflattering pictures of his prodigious paunch. If you were constantly the butt of jokes like these, wouldn't you want to do something about it?

Then again, if you were earning $19 million, maybe not.

Sox Suffer First Lost

Porcello pitched well but lost due to lack of run support (Boston Globe)

 The Boston Red Sox, my pick to win the American League this year, remained undefeated for exactly one game. Maybe I should start re-thinking that prediction.

The afterglow of Boston's 8-0 Opening Day beatdown faded quickly, as the Red Sox lost 4-2 last night. With the game time temperature dipping below 40 degrees, Boston's bats went cold after blasting five home runs in Monday afternoon's slugfest, managing just two singles and no runs through the first seven innings.

Rick Porcello and Aaron Harang, both debuting with their respective teams, traded scoreless frames until the sixth, when Philadelphia broke through for three runs. After fanning Ryan Howard to open the bottom of the frame, Porcello hiccuped. A walk, a single, and a just-enough homer to Jeff Francoeur of all people (of course he plays for the Phillies) made it 3-0 Philly in an eyeblink. Porcello got out of the inning without further damage, but his mistake to Frenchy ultimately cost his new team the game.

With Philadelphia leading 4-0 in the top of the eighth, having added an insurance run on a Chase Utley sacrifice fly, Boston rallied against Ken Giles. A Darin Ruf fielding error, Xander Bogaerts' single, and three walks--the last a bases loaded free pass to Pablo Sandoval--let in two Red Sox runs. With the bases still loaded and two down, Ryne Sandberg called for his closer, Jonathan Papelbon, to get out of the jam against his former team.

For a heart-stopping moment, the substitution appeared to backfire when Hanley Ramirez--his bat still smoldering from his pair of Opening Day homers--unloaded on an 0-1 pitch, driving it high and deep towards the left-center field wall. A couple months from now it probably lands in the seats, but the cold caused it to die on the warning track just shy of the 374 sign.

The next two Boston at-bats ended similarly, with fly balls harmlessly dropping into the mitt of Phillies left fielder Ben Revere. With the Sox down to their last out, Ryan Hanigan reached on catcher's interference, bringing the potential tying-run to the plate in the form of Bogaerts.  It was a classic baseball matchup of a battle-tested closer staring down the eager kid at the plate. This time, experience won out, as Pap whiffed Bogaerts to end the game and earn his 326th career save.

Other notes: the recently-extended Porcello pitched very well until his sixth-inning speed bump, but let's wait and see how he fares against a real lineup...Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, and Hanley Ramirez went a combined 0-for-10 after hitting five home runs between them on Monday...Mike Napoli went 0-for-4 in place of David Ortiz...Sandoval notched his first Red Sox hit, going 2-for-3 with an RBI walk...Boston's struggles with runners in scoring position continued, as they are now 2-for-13 in such situations...Francoeur's long ball was the only extra base hit of the game...There was some sloppy defense, with both teams making two errors resulting in three unearned runs...Philadelphia had twice as many runs and twice as many hits as Boston...Both teams left six men on base.

Boston will look to take the rubber game today behind Justin Masterson, making his first start for the Red Sox since 2009. Philadelphia will counter with ground-baller David Buchanan, fresh off a solid rookie season in which he posted a 3.75 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 117 and 2/3 innings. With tonight's forecast looking cold and rainy, don't expect much offense.

Sox Spend Big, Strike Out

As expected, the Boston Red Sox had a busy offseason in the wake of 2014’s last place finish. They revamped their lineup, renovated the starting rotation, and made a host of smaller moves to bolster their overall depth.

They also went on an enormous spending spree, committing nearly $250 million (not including option years) to three players: Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and Yoan Moncada. Was that the best way to spend a quarter billion dollars—more than the entire payroll of every major league team save the Los Angeles Dodgers?

Probably not.

Let’s start with Sandoval, 28, who fetched a five-year, $95 million deal with a $17 million team option for the sixth year: too much for a lumbering third baseman who plays mediocre defense and hacks at almost every pitch thrown his way.

These weaknesses are only becoming more pronounced. Sandoval hasn’t even attempted a stolen base since 2012. His 48.1 percent chase rate—the proportion of pitches outside the strike zone he swung at last year—was easily the highest in baseball. Consequently, his career already appears to be in decline, as his on-base and slugging percentages have fallen every year since 2011. Three straight seasons of sagging production is a worrisome trend that can’t be ignored, especially since thicker players like Sandoval tend to deteriorate more rapidly. He’ll be best suited for first base or designated hitter within a few years, meaning he’s not a long-term solution at third base.

Those deficiencies could be excused if Sandoval were an elite power hitter, but he isn’t. His power is surprisingly pedestrian for a man his size, as he has failed to top 16 home runs in four of the last five seasons. The league-average Isolated Power, which gauges raw power by measuring the average number of extra bases a player gets per at-bat, is usually around .140, but Sandoval has been below that in each of the past two seasons. He doesn’t offer the game-changing clout Boston needs to supplement aging sluggers David Ortiz and Mike Napoli, who turn 40 and 34, respectively, this year.

The Red Sox desperately needed a third baseman, as Will Middlebrooks proved incompetent and Brock Holt’s unexpected breakout was likely a fluke, but they didn’t need to splurge on Sandoval to upgrade at the hot corner. Chase Headley, a comparable hitter and former Gold Glove winner, re-signed with the Yankees for little more than half of Sandoval’s take. Boston also could have moved shortstop Xander Bogaerts back to third, where he played almost one-third of his games last year.

At least Sandoval filled a hole. Ramirez, who signed on the same day as Sandoval for four years and $88 million with a $22 million vesting option for the fifth year, only adds to Boston’s already crowded outfield situation. The Red Sox should have been trying to trade away outfielders, not bring more in, especially ones that have never played the outfield at the professional level before (Ramirez was previously a shortstop and third baseman).

Even more troubling than Ramirez’s outfield inexperience is the assortment of injuries that have caused him to miss nearly 29 percent of his teams’ games over the past four seasons. Ramirez has played well when healthy, but he’s going to be 31 next year and figures to miss additional time going forward. Boston better be prepared for long stretches without Ramirez, even though a player earning $22 million per year shouldn’t require a backup plan.

While Sandoval and Ramirez were rewarded for their past performance, Moncada, a 19 year-old infield prospect from Cuba, got paid based on what Boston believes (or hopes) he will become. The Red Sox surrendered $63 million to acquire him on February 23–a huge investment in a teenager who’s never had a whiff of American baseball. It’s one thing to throw gobs of money at someone with a lengthy track record of success; it’s quite another to invest heavily in a player with no track record at all. This gamble looks even more questionable coming just two weeks after San Diego’s acquisition of James Shields—an established ace who could have been had for just $12 million more.

The problem is that none of these signings addressed Boston’s most glaring need: starting pitching. Boston spent all that money, and somehow is still without an ace. Instead they got a fat third baseman, a converted outfielder, and a wet behind the ears teenager. Apparently $250 million doesn’t buy what it used to.

Sox Sign Sandoval

As expected, Sandoval signed with the Sox (RantSports)

Shortly after the Boston reached a five--year, $90 million agreement with Hanley Ramirez, they landed another prized free agent bat in Pablo Sandoval. Of the three teams that offered Sandoval approximately five years and $95 million (San Diego and San Francisco were the others), Boston was Sandoval's choice (wonder how much Fenway Park played a role in that).

The Red Sox said they were all-in on Sandoval and willing to do whatever it took to get him. Seeing as how they got their man, I guess they weren't kidding.

While I was initially hesitant about the six years and $100+ million I expected Sandoval to receive, I'm much more comfortable with the actual terms. The deal covers Sandoval's age 28-32 seasons, meaning the Red Sox can expect Sandoval to be productive over the life of the contract, especially at the beginning when he's still in his prime. He might even be able to man the hot corner for the entirety of the contract, though I wouldn't be surprised to see him DH frequently when David Ortiz retires.

More importantly, adding Sandoval makes the Red Sox significantly better in the short-run. Boston third basemen--mainly a combination of Will Middlebrooks and Xander Bogaerts with a dash of Brock Holt--batted just .211/.271/.308 with 10 home runs and 54 RBI last year. Those numbers wouldn't play at shortstop, let alone one of the corner infield positions. Much was made about punchless Red Sox outfield last year (looking at you, Jackie Bradley Jr.), but third base was actually the team's least productive position OPS-wise.

In Sandoval, Boston now has one of the best-hitting third sackers in the game. Since debuting in 2008, he's been the sport's seventh-most valuable third baseman per fWAR while maintaining an .811 OPS and 122 wRC+. His numbers should receive a significant boost from Fenway as well. A switch-hitter with solid power and on-base ability, Sandoval beefs up Boston's lineup considerably and projects to be about a three-win player.

He's also a beast in October, which means something to a perennial contender like the Red Sox. Sandoval is coming off a postseason in which he notched 26 hits--an MLB record. A proven postseason performer, he also has the highest batting average (.344) of anyone with at least 150 plate appearances in the playoffs. Sandoval was part of three World Series winners with the Giants and has shown the ability to succeed under pressure.

Adding Ramirez and Sandoval to a lineup that already features Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, Yoenis Cespedes, and Shane Victorino gives Boston some serious thump, which is exactly what they need after fielding one of the American League's five worst offenses last year. Now they must focus on adding arms, either by splurging for Jon Lester or packaging prospects (possibly Bogaerts now that Boston has an All-Star shortstop and third baseman) to the Phillies for Cole Hamels. The Red Sox have already committed close to $200 million for just two players in the past 24 hours, but they still need to go the extra mile and acquire a frontline starter or two.

Otherwise, they're going to be just like the many good but not-good-enough teams of Red Sox past--plenty of bats but short on arms.

Sox Shouldn't Sign Sandoval

Sandoval's bat doesn't make up for his flaws (ESPN)

The Boston Red Sox are reportedly all-in on Pablo Sandoval. Gulp.

Many of the points I made in the spring still stand. Sandoval plays mediocre defense and can't run (he hasn't even attempted a stolen base since 2012). His power is merely decent, he hardly ever walks (just 39 times in 638 plate appearances last year, and six of those were intentional), and he doesn't produce a lot of runs. Furthermore, his career already appears to be on the downswing, as his OBP and slugging have fallen every year since 2011. 28 or not, that's not somebody I'm handing a six-year deal to.

One would expect Fenway to boost his numbers some, but that's not guaranteed. Sandoval hit much better at AT&T (.853 OPS there) compared to everywhere else (.771 OPS). It's typical for players to hit better at home regardless of where they play, however, and it stands to reason that his home numbers would rise in Fenway's friendly confines.

The Red Sox have a clear hole to fill at third base (Will Middlebrooks aint the answer), but there are better, more appealing options, like trying to trade for Adrian Beltre or signing Chase Headley. I like that they're willing to throw money at a player, but Sandoval's the wrong guy. Throw that money at a starting pitcher, for the love of God, like Jon Lester or Max Scherzer. Don't piss it away on Sandoval, a solid player but by no means a star. If you're going to spend superstar money, you better get a superstar in return, and a corner infielder who's averaged 14 homers, 72 RBI, and a .280/.335/.424 line over the past three years isn't close to one.

Please, Mr. Cherington, spend your money elsewhere. Let Sandoval be someone else's mistake.

Sandoval Say What?

Pablo Sandoval is a good baseball player, but he is not worth $100 million.

As the nickname implies, Kung Fu Panda has no speed and is never going to win a Gold Glove at third base. All of his value comes from his bat, which is good, but hardly $100 million good.

First off, Sandoval's power is merely adequate for a corner infielder. Though he's shown the ability to hit for power before, exceeding 20 home runs and slugging over .550 in 2009 and 2011 (not to mention that Reggie Jackson-esque three-homer game in the World Series two years ago), his .176 career ISO is indicative of a player with merely average pop. Look no further than his middling home run totals; Fat Ichiro has failed to top 15 home runs in three of his past four seasons and his career high is 25. He can't be counted on for 20 home runs in a season, much less 30.

Consequently, Sandoval doesn't drive in nor score many runs. He's never scored 80 runs in a season and has driven in that many only once--in his career year of 2009. Obviously runs and RBI are team-dependent stats, but the point I'm trying to make is that because Sandoval doesn't hit many home runs, he doesn't drive himself in as often as guys like Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis. His poor runs and RBI totals reflect that.

Another explanation for Sandoval's lack of runs (besides his non-existent speed) is that he doesn't get on base a whole lot. His .347 career OBP is good but hardly great, and the reason is that he doesn't walk very much. His solid on-base skills stem mostly from his ability to hit for good averages, as he's a .293 career hitter. But his averages have declined precipitously over the past three years, falling from .315 in 2011 to .283 in 2012 and .278 last year.

With strikeouts and defensive shifts on the rise, hitting for average is becoming increasingly difficult nowadays, and it's only going to get harder for Sandoval, who can't leg out hits the way Mike Trout and Billy Hamilton can. If Sandoval's declining batting average trend continues, or even holds steady at the .270-.280 range, he's going to lose a lot of offensive value unless he starts taking more walks (which, given his propensity for hacking at pitches off the plate, seems unlikely).

Durability's been an issue for Sandoval as well. The hefty third-sacker has averaged 134 games in his five full seasons, a solid number, but by missing 28 games per season for five years he's lost 140 games, almost the equivalent of a full season. Over the last three years his attendance has been even poorer, as he's averaged just 122 games per season. Typically players miss more games as they get older, which doesn't bode well for Sandoval's health going forward.

Now is also an appropriate time to mention that his Prince Fielder-ish body probably isn't going to age well. Weight has always been an issue for him so unless he takes a cue from CC Sabathia and David Ortiz and slims down considerably, his decline is likely going to hit like a ton of bricks. Chunky players like Sandoval tend to lose it overnight, as opposed to the more athletic types who age slowly and gracefully.

The best thing you can say about Sandoval is that his floor is pretty high. The two-time All-Star has never been terrible, or even below average. In his worst year, 2010, he still popped 34 doubles, put up a .732 OPS/99 OPS+, and was worth about a win and a half above replacement. His ceiling is also pretty high, as he was borderline MVP-caliber in 2009 and 2011.

One would think a potential away from San Francisco's pitching-friendly confines would help his numbers return to their '09/'11 levels, but in reality he's been a much better hitter there than on the road. At AT&T he's a .313/.366/.494 hitter: everywhere else he's a .275/.330/.447 hitter, essentially the difference between Sandoval at his best and Sandoval at his worst. His splits suggest that he's a much better left-handed hitter, though, so maybe he'd thrive in a park well-suited for southpaw sluggers. I hear the Yankees might be in need of a third baseman soon...(don't tell Alex Rodriguez that, though)

The bottom line: Sandoval is a good hitter, but that's all he is, and he probably won't be very good for much longer. The 27 year-old is off to a terrible start this year, and only time will tell if it's nothing more than an early season slump or the beginning of a premature decline.