Red Sox Rundown

Boston's ace has not lived up to his new contract so far (Over The Monster)

Got to answer a few questions about the Sox last month from fellow Baseball Blogger Alliance member Peter Schiller over at baseballreflections.com. Thanks for the shout-out Pete!

Q: How are the Red Sox’s offseason acquisitions working out so far? Any concerns?

A: Alright. Their four main acquisitions were David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith, and Chris Young. Price has been up-and-down, but overall he’s made the rotation better. Kimbrel has been shaky at times, but for the most part has been about as good as advertised. Smith has been hurt all year, so he hasn’t made any impact. Young has been solid in left field, but John Farrell’s had to over-rely on him with alternatives Brock Holt and Blake Swihart out for extended periods of time.  Price hasn’t been himself, which is definitely a concern when you’ve got him signed to the most expensive contract ever for a pitcher, and Smith underwent Tommy John which is never a positive.

Q: Who has been the most disappointing player so far this season? Will they improve as the season goes on?

A: Gotta be Price. The Sox are paying him close to $1 million per start and roughly half of his starts have been duds. He’s running the highest ERA of his career and has struggled against weak offenses like Tampa Bay and New York. He’ll have innings where he just loses it and completely melts down, which you typically don’t see from your ace. That said, he should improve as his peripherals are excellent (he leads the league in strikeouts) and he’s gotten unlucky with balls in play and strand rate. He was a monster for Toronto in the second half last year, and if he can do that again his rough first half will be forgotten.

Q: Who has been the most surprising player so far this season? Can they sustain this pace?

A: It’s a toss-up between Jackie Bradley Jr., who’s been the team’s MVP after not being able to hit at all during first three seasons (save for one month last year), and Steven Wright, who’s emerged as a Cy Young candidate and could potentially start the All-Star Game. I guess you’d have to say Wright is more surprising given his age (31) and the fact that he almost didn’t make Boston’s rotation this year. Bradley had shown flashes of brilliance before -- so we knew he had it in him -- and he’s 26, which is a normal breakout age.  Bradley has a decent shot of keeping this up based on his minor league track record, but Wright is a knuckleballer which makes his dominance unlikely to continue.

Q: What top prospects might we see before the All Star break (What type of player are they: 5 tool player, speedster, defensive, power hitter, etc.)? What will be their impact on the team?

A: Andrew Benintendi may get some run in left field with the injuries to Holt, Swihart and Young.  He’s a 5 tool player who could help Boston down the stretch, allowing Holt and Swihart to slide back to their natural positions and allowing Farrell to use Young strictly against lefties. If the Sox don’t promote him this summer, he’ll probably get called up for a cup of coffee when rosters expand in September.

The Red Sox have arguably baseball's top prospect in Moncada (Fox Sports)

Q: What top prospects are currently being blocked by current players on the big club? Will this make them trade bait, will they switch positions or will the vet eventually be traded?

A: Yoan Moncada is Boston’s best prospect and most untouchable asset, but he’s currently blocked at second base by Dustin Pedroia. Moncada seems unlikely to be traded (unless it’s for an ace-level starter in return) and Pedroia’s not going anywhere, which means he’s going to have to change positions at some point. He could convert to an outfielder, like Mookie Betts did, or possibly play third. He can play pretty much anywhere with his athleticism, so the Sox shouldn’t have any problem finding a place for him.

Q: What is the team lacking that either wasn’t addressed in the offseason or the offseason acquisition isn’t cutting it?

A: Quality starting pitching beyond Price, who hasn’t been nearly as good as expected. They have three good starters with him, Wright, and Rick Porcello, but the back of the rotation has been a dumpster fire. It’s clear the team will need to trade for another starter or two as the deadline rolls around, which will probably require sacrificing one of their prized prospects.

Q: Are they better or worse off now than they were at the end of last season?

A: There’s no question that they’re better, although it’s important to remember that they were one of baseball’s better teams in the second half last year. Adding Price gives them the ace they’ve lacked since trading Jon Lester, while Kimbrel gives the bullpen a much-needed power arm. Losing Pablo Sandoval for the year is addition by subtraction, especially since it allows Travis Shaw to play everyday. Hanley Ramirez has proven to be a competent first baseman, which is a huge upgrade over his terrible defense in left field last year.

Q: What is your predicted outcome for the team this season? Why?

A: I expect they’ll win 88-90 games and one of the two wild cards. They’re really strong up the middle and have arguably the league’s best starting pitcher and closer, but lack of depth in the rotation will ultimately prevent them from winning 95 games and the division.

Q: What players need to go (traded, released, etc.) & why?

A: Sandoval needs to go, but there’s no way to get rid of him. His trade value’s at an all-time low, and releasing him would mean eating the next three years of his contract. The Red Sox should also part ways with catcher Ryan Hanigan, as they have two great young catchers in Swihart and Christian Vazquez. They should also try to find a way to get rid of Clay Buchholz, since he’s no longer a reliable starter and doesn’t make much sense as a bullpen option.

Boston Bludgeons Philadelphia

Pedrioa got the Red Sox off and running with his first inning blast (CBS Boston)

The Boston Red Sox started their season on the right foot yesterday, crushing the Philadelphia Phillies 8-0 on Opening Day.

The Red Sox scored all eight of their runs via the long ball, going yard five times in all. Dustin Pedroia ignited the scoring with a first inning solo shot into the left field bleachers that put Boston up 1-0. Mookie Betts, batting leadoff in his first Opening Day start, banged another solo shot in the third to double Boston's lead.

The Red Sox doubled their lead again in the fifth thanks to solo shots by Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez. Cole Hamels left after finishing the inning, having allowed four home runs in a game for the first time since April 23rd, 2010. Though Hamels allowed only five hits, four of them left the yard.

Meanwhile, Clay Buchholz was masterful in his first-ever Opening Day start, limiting the Phillies to just three hits through seven shutout innings. He carved up Philadelphia's feeble lineup, striking out nine against only one walk. The Red Sox are counting on a big comeback from their erstwhile ace, who was strafed for a 5.34 ERA last year, so yesterday's turn was certainly encouraging. It will be interesting to see how he performs against an American League team with a more formidable lineup.

The mighty Bosox weren't done scoring yet, either. With the game already well in hand, they doubled their lead one final time in the top of the ninth. After Phillies reliever Jake Diekman loaded the bases, Ramirez stepped up and lined a grand slam off the left field foul pole for his second bomb of the game. Welcome back, Hanley.

Yesterday's rout was a preview of what Boston's new-look lineup is capable of. The Red Sox are going to light up the scoreboard this year even on days like yesterday, when they didn't actually hit that well. The Sox were just 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position and got next to nothing out of everyone not named Betts, Pedroia, or Ramirez.

But that trio, which accounted for seven of Boston's nine hits including all five of their home runs and all eight of their RBI, did more than enough to propel the Sox to victory. In light of Pedroia's recent power woes, it was especially encouraging to see Pedey enjoy his first multi-homer game since September 13th, 2011. It was also good to see him get his first dinger out of the way after going homerless in each of the past two Aprils. Hopefully yesterday was a sign that he is fully healthy and can drive the ball with authority again.

The Red Sox are back at it tomorrow night with the newly-extended Rick Porcello making his Boston debut. The Phillies will counter with Aaron Harang. Expect another turkey-shoot.

Sox Spend Big, Strike Out

As expected, the Boston Red Sox had a busy offseason in the wake of 2014’s last place finish. They revamped their lineup, renovated the starting rotation, and made a host of smaller moves to bolster their overall depth.

They also went on an enormous spending spree, committing nearly $250 million (not including option years) to three players: Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and Yoan Moncada. Was that the best way to spend a quarter billion dollars—more than the entire payroll of every major league team save the Los Angeles Dodgers?

Probably not.

Let’s start with Sandoval, 28, who fetched a five-year, $95 million deal with a $17 million team option for the sixth year: too much for a lumbering third baseman who plays mediocre defense and hacks at almost every pitch thrown his way.

These weaknesses are only becoming more pronounced. Sandoval hasn’t even attempted a stolen base since 2012. His 48.1 percent chase rate—the proportion of pitches outside the strike zone he swung at last year—was easily the highest in baseball. Consequently, his career already appears to be in decline, as his on-base and slugging percentages have fallen every year since 2011. Three straight seasons of sagging production is a worrisome trend that can’t be ignored, especially since thicker players like Sandoval tend to deteriorate more rapidly. He’ll be best suited for first base or designated hitter within a few years, meaning he’s not a long-term solution at third base.

Those deficiencies could be excused if Sandoval were an elite power hitter, but he isn’t. His power is surprisingly pedestrian for a man his size, as he has failed to top 16 home runs in four of the last five seasons. The league-average Isolated Power, which gauges raw power by measuring the average number of extra bases a player gets per at-bat, is usually around .140, but Sandoval has been below that in each of the past two seasons. He doesn’t offer the game-changing clout Boston needs to supplement aging sluggers David Ortiz and Mike Napoli, who turn 40 and 34, respectively, this year.

The Red Sox desperately needed a third baseman, as Will Middlebrooks proved incompetent and Brock Holt’s unexpected breakout was likely a fluke, but they didn’t need to splurge on Sandoval to upgrade at the hot corner. Chase Headley, a comparable hitter and former Gold Glove winner, re-signed with the Yankees for little more than half of Sandoval’s take. Boston also could have moved shortstop Xander Bogaerts back to third, where he played almost one-third of his games last year.

At least Sandoval filled a hole. Ramirez, who signed on the same day as Sandoval for four years and $88 million with a $22 million vesting option for the fifth year, only adds to Boston’s already crowded outfield situation. The Red Sox should have been trying to trade away outfielders, not bring more in, especially ones that have never played the outfield at the professional level before (Ramirez was previously a shortstop and third baseman).

Even more troubling than Ramirez’s outfield inexperience is the assortment of injuries that have caused him to miss nearly 29 percent of his teams’ games over the past four seasons. Ramirez has played well when healthy, but he’s going to be 31 next year and figures to miss additional time going forward. Boston better be prepared for long stretches without Ramirez, even though a player earning $22 million per year shouldn’t require a backup plan.

While Sandoval and Ramirez were rewarded for their past performance, Moncada, a 19 year-old infield prospect from Cuba, got paid based on what Boston believes (or hopes) he will become. The Red Sox surrendered $63 million to acquire him on February 23–a huge investment in a teenager who’s never had a whiff of American baseball. It’s one thing to throw gobs of money at someone with a lengthy track record of success; it’s quite another to invest heavily in a player with no track record at all. This gamble looks even more questionable coming just two weeks after San Diego’s acquisition of James Shields—an established ace who could have been had for just $12 million more.

The problem is that none of these signings addressed Boston’s most glaring need: starting pitching. Boston spent all that money, and somehow is still without an ace. Instead they got a fat third baseman, a converted outfielder, and a wet behind the ears teenager. Apparently $250 million doesn’t buy what it used to.

Ramirez Rejoins Red Sox

9 years after Boston traded him, Ramirez is back (ProSportsBlogging)

10 years ago Hanley Ramirez was the Boston Red Sox's shortstop of the future, heir apparent to Nomar Garciaparra. Then the Sox traded him to the then-Florida Marlins for Josh Beckett in a move that altered the course of both franchises.

Boston, of course, went on to win the 2007 World Series on the backs of Beckett and Lowell, that year's ALCS and World Series MVPs. Meanwhile, Ramirez blossomed in Florida, winning NL Rookie of the Year in 2006 before earning three top-10 MVP finishes and a trio of All-Star nods over the next four seasons. The former batting champion spent the last two and a half seasons with the Dodgers, helping them to division titles in 2013 and 2014.

Now, Ramirez is returning to the team that signed him as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic when he was just 16. With 10 big league seasons under his belt, the 30 year-old has delivered on the superstar promise he flashed in Boston's farm system. He returns a fully-formed product.

While HanRam's defense has suffered in recent years, necessitating a move off shortstop (likely to third), his bat has remained potent. In 2013 he slammed 20 home runs to go along with a sky-high 1.040 OPS (189 OPS+), followed by a 132 OPS+ performance in 2014. Excluding his two-game cameo with the Sox in 2005, Ramirez has had an above-average OPS in all but one of his seasons--his injury-marred 2011. His bat is most valuable at shortstop, obviously, but still plays at the hot corner or in the outfield should he move there.

2011 was an aberration in terms of Ramirez's offensive production, but it was not out of the ordinary in regards to his health. He missed time the year before that (2010), played just 86 games in 2013, then sat out 34 games last year. That's 205 missed games over the past five seasons, an average of 41 per year. Ramirez is going to be 31 next year, so the Red Sox shouldn't expect to get many, if any, full seasons out of him. But like Jose Reyes, Ramirez is so good when he does play that he still earns his keep: just make sure you have a quality backup plan.

A righthanded hitter with good power (career .200 ISO), Ramirez should excel in Fenway Park. Trading the run-parched environment of Dodger Stadium for one of the best hitter's parks in baseball should help ward off any age-related decline in the immediate future. He's also a versatile offensive performer, capable of hitting .300 with 20 homers and a similar number of steals when healthy. He walks a fair amount and doesn't strike out much, so one would expect him to age gracefully anyways.

The Red Sox are going to pay Ramirez $90 million over the next five years, an average annual value of $18 million per season. That's a considerable pay bump from his contract that just expired, a six-year, $70 million that paid him less than $12 million a season on average. Ramirez is not nearly the all-around force he was five years ago, but inflation and free agent scarcity means he'll be paid more to do less. It's still a pretty good deal if Ramirez continues to play shortstop or third, less so if he moves to left field.

So while Ramirez has question marks about his durability and defense, there's no disputing the fact that he makes Boston's lineup significantly stronger. He's still a four-win player, and I'm more optimistic about how his early 30s will play out than I am about, say, Billy Butler's. The Red Sox didn't need a shortstop with Xander Bogaerts already there, but they could certainly use a third baseman (unless Pablo Sandoval also signs) and a big bat in general. Ramirez fits the bill.

Hanley Ramirez is a Superstar (Again)

Ramirez has rediscovered his stroke with the Dodgers (Sporting News)

Over a four year stretch from 2006 to 2009, Hanley Ramirez was probably the second best player in baseball. Albert Pujols was far and away the best, but Ramirez wasn't too far behind. A Rookie of the Year, MVP runner-up and batting champion all before he turned 26, HanRam was a Hall-of-Famer in the making.

Then in 2010, his OPS dropped 100 points and his defense deteriorated. He wasn't an MVP caliber-player anymore--just merely a very good one. He still made the All-Star team, still batted .300 with 21 homers and 32 steals, but it was a bit of a down year by his standards. That, combined with Florida's frequent losing, is what likely caused his now-notorious attitude problems to emerge that summer.

The following year--his last full season with the Marlins--was also the worst of his career. He batted just .243/.333/.379 before injuring his shoulder in early August and missing the rest of the season. He was never quite right that year.

2012 was supposed to be a fresh start for the Fish, who moved into a new ballpark, changed their name to the Miami Marlins, and purchased a trio of pricey free agents--Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell. The new-look Marlins were supposed to improve significantly on their 72-90 record from the year before. Ramirez moved to third base to accommodate Reyes--something Derek Jeter would not do for Alex Rodriguez--but clearly wasn't happy about it.

It all backfired. The Marlins were worse. Ramirez's glovework at the hot corner was subpar, and to make matters worse he struggled offensively while learning his new position. When Miami traded him to the Los Angeles Dodgers a week before the deadline, he was hitting just .246/.322/.428 at the time.

The change of scenery, as well as the move back to his natural position, seemed to revitalize Ramirez. He promptly started hitting again, smashing 10 home runs with 36 RBI in his first 38 games wearing Dodger blue. It couldn't compare with Manny Ramirez's first impression four years earlier, but it was enough to salvage what was shaping up to be another lost year for the three-time All-Star.

More importantly, that strong second half was a sign of things to come. 2013 has marked a return to form for Ramirez. Though a torn thumb ligament and hamstring injury limited him to just four games through the first two months of the season, he's been so ridiculously productive when healthy that he's produced five bWAR in less than half a season's worth of games. And while he won't have enough plate appearances to lead the league in anything, his batting average, slugging percentage and OPS would all rank first in the National League. Throw in his speed and improved defense, and Ramirez is fast reclaiming his title as one of the sport's elite.

He is a superstar again, only now he's surrounded by them--Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, and Yasiel Puig. On a stacked team like that, Ramirez is just another face in the crowd, another big name that Don Mattingly gets to write in his lineup card every night. He's 29 and in his ninth big league season. He doesn't electrify fans the way he used to, or run like he used to, or get to balls deep in the hole that he used to get to. The novelty's worn off.

But we should pay Hanley Ramirez more attention. He's playing the best baseball of his career.