Will the Padres be Any Good?

Myers (pictured) and Kemp make the Padres considerably better (UTSanDiego)

Offensively, the 2014 San Diego Padres were pathetic. Among all 30 major league teams, they ranked dead last in hits, batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, total bases, and, not surprisingly, runs scored. Nobody in their lineup hit more than 15 home runs, and only one player (Seth Smith) surpassed 20 doubles. Nobody who logged more than 70 plate appearances for last year's Padres batted over .270, just as nobody reached the modest totals of 60 runs or 60 RBI. And for a team with such dreadful power, San Diego did not run nearly enough, stealing just 91 bases (ninth in the NL). Unlike the Royals, they failed to overcome their lack of power by manufacturing runs.

And yet, thanks to a sneaky-good pitching staff that ranked second in the National League (and fourth in baseball) with a 3.27 ERA, San Diego finished third in the NL West at 77-85, just four wins shy of a .500 season. With a few lineup upgrades to complement their talented rotation, the Padres would be legitimate postseason contenders in 2015.

Ladies and gentlemen, enter Matt Kemp and Wil Myers, two middle-of-the-order mashers who bring some much-needed thump to San Diego's anemic lineup. Better yet, both are under team control for the next five years. Kemp, dealt by the Dodgers last week, was the 2011 NL MVP runner-up to Ryan Braun, hit 25 home runs last year, and has put up a 140 OPS+ or higher in three of the past four seasons. He's making boatloads of money, but the Dodgers are covering enough so that he'll only cost San Diego around $15 million per year.

And then there's Myers, recently netted through a blockbuster 11 player, three team swap. A product of the Royals farm system, Myers has already been traded once before, going to the Rays (for James Shields and Wade Davis), with whom he earned 2013 AL Rookie of the Year honors despite playing just 88 games. He struggled mightily in his sophomore season, losing more than 200 points off his OPS has he battled injuries and a slow start. He's yet to play more than 90 games in a big league season and must prove he's capable of holding up over a full season, but there's no denying his superstar potential.

PetCo Park is notoriously tough on hitters, but both are coming from sever pitcher's parks in Tampa Bay and Los Angeles. Kemp's numbers should be expected to decline with age (he's already 30), but one would expect Myers to match or exceed his rookie production. Their monster power plays anywhere, so 81 games at PetCo shouldn't murder their numbers (though it definitely won't help). Between them they should be good for five or six additional wins next year, maybe more if Myers really takes off.

So where does that leave the Padres? With an abundance of outfielders (I hear the Red Sox have a similar problem) and a lineup still rife with question marks (do Jedd Gyorko and Will Venable bounce back? Can Carlos Quentin stay healthy? Will Seth Smith replicate his success). They'll score more runs with Kemp and Myers aboard, but perhaps not significantly more given Kemp's age and injury history and Myers's recent struggles.

Assuming the pitching holds steady, San Diego could easily improve to .500 next year, 85 wins if everything goes right. The Dodgers and Giants are still heavy favorites to take first and second place in the division, but both have gotten weaker this offseason and could be ore vulnerable next year. The Padres aren't quite ready to overtake them, but they're definitely going in the right direction. Another big bat or proven starter would go a long way, but they've already improved considerably and it's not even Christmas.

Then again, it's not like the Padres lineup could have gotten any worse.

The Myers-McCovey Connection

Since Wil Myers was named American League Rookie of the Year on Monday, several writers have mentioned that Myers was the first position player to win the award while playing in fewer than 100 games.

That didn't sound right to me, and after some investigation I figured out why. Myers was the first AMERICAN LEAGUE player to win the award and appear in fewer than 100 games, and even that is barely true. 1994 Rookie of the Year Bob Hamelin logged 101 games during the strike-shortened campaign.

My research revealed that not one, but two National League position players have won the award despite playing fewer than 100 games. Most recently, there was Bob Horner in 1978. Horner smashed 23 home runs and knocked in 63 runs in just 89 games, an impressive power barrage that helped him surpass Ozzie Smith in the voting.

The one I was thinking of, though, was Willie McCovey, who won the 1959 trophy despite playing only 52 games--barely a third of a season. But Stretch was so ridiculously productive in that short time, hitting .354/.429/.656 with 13 home runs, that the writers had to recognize his awesomeness. McCovey rewarded them by putting together a Hall of Fame career in the two decades that followed, proving that his two month stretch of dominance was no fluke.

Something tells me Myers isn't a fluke either. Like McCovey, he's probably destined for Cooperstown.

Myers, Fernandez, and Puig

The Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis for Myers last winter. It paid off

Baseball awards week kicked off tonight with the Rookie of the Year selections, and both choices were the correct ones.

In the American League, preseason favorite Wil Myers ran away with the award. Myers received 23 of the 30 first place votes for his outstanding (albeit abbreviated) campaign. Though he didn't debut until June 18th, the 22 year-old made the most of his shortened season. Myers mashed big league pitching to the tune of .293/.354/.478 (eerily similar to Eric Hosmer's rookie numbers).  He also popped 13 homers and knocked in 53 runs, providing some much-needed firepower for the offensively-starved Rays as well as another big bat to complement Evan Longoria. Just for fun (and to show how productive he was on a per-game basis) here's what his numbers project to over the course of a full season:

92 runs, 180 hits, 42 doubles, 23 homers, 92 RBI, 60 walks, 9 steals, 294 total bases

Those are fine numbers for anyone, let alone a 22-year old kid playing half his games in the pitching-friendly Tropicana Field. Myers had a huge impact on the Rays, who were in fourth place and just three games above .500 when he was called up, but went 56-38 (.596) with him on board. Tampa Bay probably doesn't make the playoffs without him.

Runner-up Jose Iglesias netted five first-place votes and 17 second-place votes. Some thought Iglesias, who logged significantly more playing time than Myers and batted .303 while playing superlative defense, deserved the hardware over Myers. FanGraphs and B-R both have Myers rated as more valuable per WAR because even though he played right field, he was far and away the superior hitter. Iglesias never walked and hit for no power whatsoever despite benefiting from friendly offensive environments in Boston and Detroit, so his 101 OPS+ pales in comparison to Myers' 132 mark.

The remaining pair of first place votes were split by starting pitchers: Myers' teammate Chris Archer and Oakland's Dan Straily. J.B. Schuck, Cody Allen, Martin Perez and David Lough also received consideration. Tampa Bay now has three rookies of the year on its roster: Myers, Longoria (2008) and Jeremy Hellickson ('11).

Fernandez was one of the few bright spots on a horrendous Marlins team

The National League race was even more lopsided, which was surprising given the insane levels of hype generated by Yasiel Puig this summer. Jose Fernandez dominated the voting, hauling in all but four first place votes (which went to Puig) for what was a historic rookie season. The Miami Marlins were god-awful this year, as expected, but Fernandez flourished into one of the league's best pitchers. Just 20 years-old at the season's outset, Fernandez got off to a shaky start (4.50 ERA in April) but quickly settled down and found his rhythm. He got better and better as the season wore on, being voted as the NL's top rookie in July and August. When he was shut down after making just two September starts in accordance with his team-enforced innings limit, Senior Circuit hitters breathed one big sigh of relief.

The former first round draft pick and Cuban defector had emerged not only as Miami's ace, but as a legitimate Cy Young candidate as well. He was all but unhittable, posting the lowest H/9 rate in the majors and holding opponents to .182/.257/.265 figures. His 2.19 ERA and 176 ERA+ ranked second only to Clayton Kershaw among big league pitchers, and his 9.75 K/9 was bested only by A.J. Burnett in the NL. His 0.98 WHIP placed him third, as did his 6.3 pitching WAR. Puig may have been the sexier choice, but there was no denying Fernandez's numbers.

Puig was ridiculously fun to watch, though, and had a tremendous season in his own right. He didn't debut until June 3rd and only got into 104 games, but that was more than enough to know that a new superstar had arrived. The 22 year-old Cuban batted .319/.391/.534, which translated to a robust 160 OPS+ and provided plenty of spark for an underachieving Dodgers club that seemed to have lost its way. His first month in the Show was absolutely off-the-charts, so much so that we were talking about him as an All-Star candidate based on four weeks worth of games. Even at the time it was ridiculous, but like Willie Mays or Bo Jackson, Puig was made for All-Star games. He was must-see TV the way Justin Verlander's starts are, the way Manny Ramirez and Barry Bonds' at-bats used to be.

The human highlight reel eventually cooled off, of course, but still managed to do something SportsCenter-worthy on a nightly basis. I can't think of a rookie baseball player in my lifetime, not even Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, who created as much excitement as Puig did. Everything he did, all the rocket throws, towering home runs and majestic bat flips, even the strikeouts, was jaw-dropping. When it comes to showmanship, he is without peer. It's going to be a blast watching him do his thing.

Extrapolate Puig's performance over a full season, as I did with Myers, and you get these numbers:

102 runs, 190 hits, 32 doubles, 29 homers, 17 steals, 317 total bases

That seems like a good baseline for his performance next year.

Apologies to remaining NL-vote getters Shelby Miller, Hyun-jin Ryu, Julio Teheran, Jedd Gyorko (what a finish!), Nolan Arenado, and Evan Gattis (great start!), but I've run out out of things to say about this year's rookie class.