Breaking Down Boston's Big Trade

Kimbrel helps the Red Sox, but did they give up too much to get him? (Sports on Earth)

Dave Dombrowski got the ball rolling on what figures to be a busy offseason for the Boston Red Sox, trading four prospects to the San Diego Padres for All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel.

As a Red Sox fan, I feel very conflicted about this deal. When the trade was first announced Friday I was vehemently against it (four prospects for a closer? What were they thinking??), but after giving it some thought this weekend I don't hate it. I definitely don't love it, though, which is why I want to examine both sides of the coin.

Why it's a good trade for Boston:

So much of the blame for Boston's last place finish fell on their starting rotation that it was easy to overlook how terrible their bullpen was last year. It wasn't just bad; it was one of the worst. Red Sox relievers ranked last in FIP and fifth from the bottom in ERA last year.  One might think they struggled because they were overworked, that they had to pitch more frequently because Sox starters got shelled so often, but that wasn't the case. In fact, Boston's bullpen pitched fewer innings than average.

The reason Red Sox relievers stunk was because they couldn't miss bats. Boston had the majors' fifth-lowest K/9 rate, which reflected the dearth of power arms on their roster. The strikeout is an essential weapon for any reliever, as it's the best way of getting out of jams and avoiding late-inning meltdowns. This is especially true in Fenway Park, where any ball hit in play can spell trouble.

In Kimbrel, the Sox are getting one of the nastiest flamethrowers in the game. He's been the best reliever in baseball since debuting in 2010, leading all firemen in saves, FIP, and xFIP during that time. He also has the second-best strikeout rate in baseball over that span, trailing only Aroldis Chapman (who was linked to the Red Sox last week).

Kimbrel will also solidify the back of Boston's bullpen. Current closer Koji Uehara, while still dominant, will be 41 in April. Compounding his age is his Clay Buchholz-like tendency to get injured, as he did last year when he suffered a season-ending wrist fracture in early August.

What's more, Uehara will be a free agent at season's end, whereas Kimbrel is under team control for three more years. Given his age, it's unlikely that Uehara will still be pitching by the time Kimbrel hits the market, making the latter more of a long-term solution. More importantly, Kimbrel is 13 years younger than Uehara and has never spent a day on the Disabled List. If they both stay healthy, Boston's going to have one of the best bullpen duos in baseball next year.

And for those worried about how Kimbrel will adjust to the American League, fear not. Kimbrel has had great success against the Junior Circuit throughout his career, posting a 1.44 ERA against AL teams, which is actually better than his 1.65 mark versus NL competition.

Lastly, none of the four prospects Boston gave up appeared to have much of a future with the team. The best players sent to San Diego in the deal--center fielder Manuel Margot and shortstop Javier Guerra--were both blocked by Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, who figure to be franchise cornerstones for years to come (unless Dombrowski decides to trade them, too). Carlos Asuaje struggled at Double-A last year, batting just .251/.334/.378, and is also blocked at second base by Dustin Pedroia, who's signed through 2021. Last but not least is Logan Allen, who just graduated high school. Scouts like him and he pitched well across his eight minor league starts this year, but it's much too soon to predict his future. In any case, all were unlikely to crack the major league roster next year.

Boston needs to be aggressive after back-to-back last place finishes, and this move signals they're serious about contending again in 2016. Fans would have rather seen them address their starting pitching first, but it doesn't matter when you fix your issues so long as they all get fixed. This move is only the first of many, and it's one the Red Sox wouldn't have made if they weren't going to add more pieces later.

As for the prospects, well, I'm not crying over any of them. Boston boasts the best farm system in baseball, so they certainly have trade chips to spare. Dombrowski's predecessors seemed over-protective of their minor leaguers at times (can you imagine Ben Cherington making this deal?), but I'll never argue against exchanging kids for proven talent. Boston could afford to pony up the prospects and can afford to pay Kimbrel, so what's the problem? He's as good as it gets, and he makes the Sox better in the short run without harming their long-term plans.

Kimbrel might never be as good as he was with the Braves (Fox Sports)

Why it's a bad trade for Boston:

For whatever reason, managers and front offices are seduced by star closers and their ability to rack up saves. Like saves, the men who compile them are overrated. They pitch roughly 60 innings per year--usually one inning a few times a week--and the majority of those innings come when their team's already leading in the ninth inning. Teams convert 95 percent of ninth-inning leads anyways, meaning they pitch only when victory is all but assured. As such, the advantage of having a quote-unquote shutdown closer is marginal at best, meaning closers are not worth the lavish contracts they command

The Red Sox are paying a steep price for Kimbrel, both in terms of dollars and who they sacrificed to get him. He'll earn $11.25 million next year and $13.25 million the year after that, more than Wade Miley and nearly as much as  Pedroia. Kimbrel won't be nearly as valuable as either of those guys, meaning he'll be responsible for a disproportionate percent of the team's payroll. You could get a decent starting pitcher or a solid regular for that price.

And if that weren't bad enough, Boston also surrendered four prospects to San Diego in the trade. While the Red Sox farm system is deep, four prospects is a lot no matter how you slice it. Definitely too many for a guy who throws 60 innings a year. Dombrowski should have used those prospects to land a starter, something the Red Sox desperately need. Dombrowski says they'll attempt to do so via free agency, but that almost guarantees they'll be stuck with a massive contract they'll regret someday. Better to trade for a starter and pay for relievers, who can often be had on the cheap.

Another reason for concern is that Kimbrel's coming off the worst year of his career. Granted, it was still a terrific season by any standard, but it's still discouraging that he pitched significantly worse despite moving to the best pitcher's park in baseball. Pitchers peak early, meaning we may have already seen Kimbrel's best. Though he'll only be 28 next year, his decline phase could be well underway. His ERA and FIP have both increased in three consecutive seasons, while his strikeout totals have fallen every year since 2011.

And while Kimbrel's proven he can handle American League opponents, who knows how he'll fare in Fenway Park--a much better place for hitters than his previous homes in Atlanta and San Diego. Just because he's pitched well in the National League doesn't mean he'll replicate his success in the American League, either. The Red Sox have whiffed badly on the last few big-name NL relievers they've acquired, from Mark Melancon to Joel Hanrahan to Edward Mujica. You can add Andrew Bailey, Bobby Jenks, and Dan Wheeler to the list as well, even though they came from American League teams.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, this looks like a great trade for the Padres, who traded five players and took on B.J. (excuse me, Melvin) Upton's albatross contract to acquire Kimbrel last April (now that was a terrible trade). Pricey closers are expensive luxuries rebuilding teams don't need (just ask the Phillies), making Kimbrel expendable. More importantly, the swap helps replenish San Diego's farm system, which A.J. Preller gutted to acquire all those big names last winter. Netting two top-100 prospects and a couple of lottery tickets is a fantastic haul, not to mention a big first step towards recovery.

So who won? San Diego doesn't lose anything by giving up Kimbrel, so you can't really say they lost even if none of their new prospects pan out (at least they saved themselves some money). But for this trade to work in Boston, the Red Sox have to be good. Kimbrel's only useful if they have late-inning leads for him to protect. If they don't, well, it won't be long before Kimbrel finds himself on the trading block again.

How Will Petco Affect New Padres?

Petco's a gem of a ballfield, but I wouldn't want to hit there (ItinerantFan)

After fielding the weakest-hitting team in baseball last year, the San Diego Padres went out and made several high-profile moves over the winter to revamp their offense. Now, after adding three All-Stars and a former Rookie of the Year—none of whom are older than 30—they’ve built what might be the scariest lineup in the National League.

That is, until you factor in their home park. It’s the reason everyone’s expecting San Diego’s new ace, James Shields, to still be great at 33 (despite the fact that he's thrown a zillion innings). It’s also the reason their fearsome-looking offense might be closer to pedestrian than a modern day murderer’s row.

Petco Park is where hitting goes to die. In fact, Petco has hurt scoring more than any other park over the past three years, suppressing runs by 17 percent. It plays tougher on righties than lefties, and all of the new Padres bat from the right side. Obviously that doesn’t bode well for San Diego.

But while Petco isn’t going to help any position player’s numbers, it probably won’t hurt the new Padres as much as one might think. With the exception of Will Middlebrooks, they’ve all posted outstanding stats in the past despite playing in difficult hitting environments. Since they did it before and are still relatively young, it stands to reason they can do it again.

Derek Norris comes from Oakland, for instance, which had the fifth-worst run environment of American League parks over the past three years and suppressed righthanded home runs by 10 percent. Even so, he put up an .801 OPS there–145 points better than his road OPS. If Norris could mash in Oakland’s cavernous coliseum, then he should be fine in spacious Petco.

FanGraphs’ projection systems (Steamer and ZiPS) don’t agree, as they have him losing about 50 points off last year’s OPS. That seems odd given that he’s 26, an age when players traditionally peak. While Petco might prevent him from taking a step forward, it shouldn’t cause him to take a major step back. Based on his production the last two years, the Padres should get double digit homers and a .350-ish OBP from their All-Star catcher.

Like Norris, Justin Upton is projected to lose roughly 50 points off his OPS even though he’s also in the heart of his prime (Upton’s 27). That lost production is expected to come entirely from his power figures, with his slugging predicted to fall nearly 50 points even though his ISO has increased each of the last two years. That trend won’t continue at Petco, but he should be able to hold his own in the power department.

Since leaving Arizona’s homer-friendly Chase Field in 2012, Upton has remained one of the game’s premier sources of righthanded power despite spending the last two seasons in Turner Field—a much tougher park for sluggers. It’s not as brutal as Petco but still suppresses righthanded home runs by six percent. That didn’t stop Upton from slamming 56 home runs over the past two years (31 at home), and in a friendlier park he likely would have topped 30 both years. He’ll have a hard time cracking 30 in Petco, but should still be good for around 25 or so.

Kemp can hit anywhere (FanDuel)

Of the new Padres, Matt Kemp is the most familiar with Petco, as he’s logged more career at-bats there than the rest of them combined. He also spent his entire career in Dodger Stadium, which tied with PNC Park for being the third-toughest park for hitters from 2012-2014, so he’s no stranger to calling an offensive wasteland home. The Chavez Ravine also limited righthanded batting average by seven percent during that time. None of that deterred Kemp from hitting a robust .288/.349/.493 (135 OPS+) over the last three years, with 30 of his 54 big flies coming at home. Kemp can hit anywhere, as his almost-identical home/road splits can attest, so Petco shouldn't faze him.

And yet, Steamer and ZiPS see a big downward turn coming from Kemp this year, with ZiPS predicting his OPS to plunge 83 points. Given that he’s not far removed from his prime at 30 and just had one of his best offensive seasons, that seems unfairly harsh. As with Upton, Kemp can blast 25 homers in his sleep if he stays healthy, which should be easier for him now that he’s no longer an everyday center fielder.

That’s because Wil Myers, 24, is moving from right field to center–where he’s played all of 53 innings at the major league level. That’s going to present its own challenges as he tries to rebound from a horrendous sophomore slump (77 OPS+) that may have prompted the Rays to cut him loose barely two years after trading for him.

In his brief time with Tampa Bay, Myers struggled at Tropicana Field, which ranked as the AL’s third-toughest place to score from 2012-2014 and hindered righthanded home runs by 12 percent. It’s no surprise, then, that his OPS there was a paltry .684. The young phenom was much better elsewhere, though, with a .753 OPS on the road. Petco’s going to limit his ceiling considerably, but good health should help him at least approach his Rookie of the Year numbers. The projection systems place him slightly closer to his stellar 2013 than his god-awful 2014, which feels about right.

As for Will Middlebrooks, he couldn’t hit even with the advantage of playing half his games in Fenway, so one has to wonder how the Padres expect him to produce in San Diego. His career OPS outside Boston’s lyric little bandbox is .675, which is very worrisome in light of his move west. Petco could very well kill his career.

So while the new Padres will probably see their numbers slip, the decline won’t be as pronounced as one might expect. They’ve experienced success in similarly difficult ballparks and shouldn’t fall apart now that they’re playing half their games in San Diego. If they were coming from places like Texas and Colorado that would be greater cause for concern, but Petco isn’t significantly tougher than their past home parks. Maybe that’s why the Padres traded for them in the first place.

San Diego Signs Shields

Shields solidifies what was already a strong rotation in San Diego (Sports Talk Florida)

The San Diego Padres put the exclamation mark on their whirlwind offseason by landing big-name starting pitcher James Shields this week.

San Diego fetched Shields, the last remaining member of this winter's hallowed free agent starter trio, for considerably less than his asking price. Shields, 33, sought a five-year deal worth upwards of $100 million. When nobody ponied up for a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 who's logged more innings than anyone else over the last eight years, Shields was forced to settle for the more modest but still lucrative sum of approximately $75 million over four years.

I wouldn't have gone over nine figures for Shields (and am glad the Red Sox didn't), but that price is much more reasonable. Consider that Victor Martinez, a 36 year-old DH, got roughly the same deal (4/68), and Shields looks like a pretty good bargain, especially now that the former catcher just underwent knee surgery.

"Big Game James" looks like a steal compared to Jon Lester, who netted twice as much, and Max Scherzer, who tripled Shields's haul. Lester, who debuted alongside Shields in 2006, has outWAR'ed the latter by roughly six wins over the course of their careers, a difference of less than one win per season (in Lester's defense, though, he is two years younger, throws lefty, and has an actual track record of postseason success). Since 2008, when Scherzer came into the league, Shields has been only four and a half wins less valuable than the new National, which again works out to be less than a one win difference per season (though Scherzer won a Cy Young and is only 30). Shields is the worst and oldest of the three, but not substantially so, and I would have been thrilled if Cherington brought him to Boston at that price.

But it was San Diego who won the Shields sweepstakes and, in my opinion, the offseason. Remember the flurry of moves they made back in December? The Padres completely overhauled their offense by trading for Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Derek Norris, and Will Middlebrooks. After fielding a historically punchless lineup last year, San Diego projects to have one of the scariest batting orders this year.

On paper, the Padres appeared to have a pretty good rotation as well, comprised of Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, Odrisamer Despaigne, and either Cory Luebke or Brandon Morrow at the back end. The addition of Shields gives San Diego a strong front three with him, Ross (an All-Star last year), and Cashner (2.87 ERA over his last 300 innings), with Despaigne (a prime breakout candidate) and Kennedy rounding out the rotation.

That's a good team. I still like Los Angeles to win the NL West again, but San Diego looks like the second-best club in that division right now. They look significantly stronger than the Giants, who didn't do squat this winter, while the Rockies and Diamondbacks are still a joke. A 77-win team in 2014, San Diego should improve by at least 10 wins, which would put them in contention for a wild card berth. That's a big step for the Padres, who have had just one winning season out of the last seven and haven't reached the postseason since 2006.

Who knows: they might even exceed 90 wins for the first time since 1998. That would be quite a feat.

Garvey Good Enough for Hall?

Garvey almost never took a day off (RantSports)

Steve Garvey accomplished a lot during a productive career that spanned almost two decades. He made 10 All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves, and set the National League record for most consecutive games played (1,207). He won an MVP award and finished runner-up one other time, won a World Series and played in four others. He was durable, hit for high averages, and starred in several postseasons (.910 OPS in 55 playoff games). He hit for power, he drove in runs, and he was a smooth first baseman, all while maintaining a squeaky-clean image on the field and off.

No wonder they called him Captain America.

But despite all the accolades, all the awards and big hits and West Coast glamor, despite his immense popularity and movie-star looks and middle-of-the-order presence, despite his many Midsummer Classic and Fall Classic appearances, Steve Garvey is not in the Hall of Fame, nor should he be. 15 times he was on the writer's ballot, and 15 times the BBWAA said no.

In 2013 he was given another chance at induction via the Expansion Era Committee, and once again he did not receive the necessary votes. When I reviewed his case then, I concluded he was not Hall of Fame worthy, something I stand by today.

A good place to start is his career WAR total, which Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs both place at just under 38. That's way below the 60 usually needed to even be in the conversation for Cooperstown, and very weak considering he played in 2,337 games and compiled nearly 9,500 plate appearances. It's less than fellow first basemen Mark Grace, Dolph Camilli, and Bill White, all players who clearly fall short of the Hall's standards. Ditto Fernando Valenzuela and Carl Furillo, the two Dodgers he falls between for career bWAR. As far as I can tell, the only first basemen to be elected with fewer WAR are Jim Bottomley and High Pockets Kelly, both flawed Veteran's Committee selections. WAR also says Garvey was never the best player on his team.

Even if WAR's not your cup of tea (it's not, nor should it be, the end-all be-all method of player evaluation), Garvey still falls short by other metrics. His Black Ink score, which measures how frequently he led the league in something, is 12, well below the established HOF score of 27. His Gray Ink, which scores how often a player appears in the top 10, is closer but still falls short. And by Hall of Fame standards, which sets the bar at 50 for an average Hall of Famer, Garvey is well-shy at 32. He does pass the Hall of Fame monitor (which assesses the likelihood a player makes the Hall, not his worthiness), with his 130 score indicative of a "virtual cinch," but one out of four (six including JAWS and Hall of Stats) ain't too good.

Don't like those metrics? Okay then, but know that Garvey never slugged .500 in any of his 19 seasons, and never had an OBP above .365. He never led the league in home runs, RBI, total bases, OPS, or any meaningful statistic besides hits (twice), games played (seven times), double plays grounded into (twice), and sacrifice flies (once). He never scored 100 runs, clubbed 40 doubles, legged out 10 triples, smacked 35 home runs, or stole 20 bases in any season.

Sure, Garvey got loads of hits--2,599 of them, in fact--but hardly ever walked. Only once did he work even 50 walks in a season, and it was 50 on the nose. He only had one other season with as many as 40, and again it was 40 on the nose. His career walk rate barely cracked five percent (the league average is around 8.5), and when you subtract out his 113 intentional walks (which account for nearly one-quarter of his 479 career walks) that rate plummets below four percent. So really, Garvey wasn't even half as good as the average played at working a walk.

As such, Garvey's career on-base percentage is shockingly bad for someone who almost batted .300 for his career. At .329 it's better than average, but not by much.

Garvey also didn't hit for much power. He only had the one season with more than 30 home runs and managed just 272 for his career, or one every 32.5 at-bats. He hit a good number of doubles, but overall his pop barely stood above league average; his .152 ISO isn't much better than usual league average of .140.

Garvey pictured here with the Padres, with whom he finished his career (SBNation)

Consider that from 1974-1980, when Garvey was at his absolute best, he wasn't even one of the 20 most valuable position players in baseball. He was never one of the NL's five most valuable position players, and only twice cracked the top 10. He did not deserve that 1974 MVP, an award that should have gone to Mike Schmidt or Joe Morgan or Johnny Bench.

By overrated, flawed statistics, Garvey does well. He has lots of hits, RBI, and a high batting average. But in the statistics that really matter--WAR, OPS, runs created--he fares poorly.

Still, it crossed my mind that the voters may have actually undervalued Garvey. He was a righthanded hitter who spent his entire career in pitcher's parks, at a time when the game very much favored pitchers and speed. But his time on the BBWAA ballot coincided with the crazy offensive environment of the Steroid Era, which no doubt made his numbers seem less impressive. It's weird that he debuted with 41.6 percent of the vote and then stalled out, gradually losing support over the years and finishing up with a mere 21.1 percent of the vote in his last year of eligibility. The proliferation of advanced metrics in the early 2000s couldn't have helped his case either.

Sure enough, Garvey's neutralized numbers look much better. His career batting line rises to .306/.343/.463, giving him a 31 point boost in OPS. He has more than 2,800 hits and 1,300 runs, nearly 500 doubles, 300 long balls, and 1,500 RBI. If those were Garvey's actual numbers, I think he might have made it in. Then again, those are Dave Parker numbers, so maybe not.

I'm still saying no to Garvey, though. A first baseman needs great offensive statistics to be Hall of Fame-worthy, and Garvey's resemble more of a really good shortstop's like Derek Jeter or Alan Trammell. Garvey was a nicely packaged ballplayer with good longevity and a solid peak, but didn't do enough of anything to stand out. He didn't hit for enough power, get on base frequently enough, run well enough, or play good enough defense to earn a trip to Cooperstown. He was a lot like Gil Hodges--another classic borderline case and superb all-around first baseman for the Dodgers--only Hodges was better.

Hodges has waited over 50 years for Cooperstown to call his name, and at this point I'm starting to think it never will. Garvey, who never polled as high as Hodges, is an even greater longshot. His place in the Hall of Very Good is secure, but I'll be shocked if he ever sees his day in Cooperstown.

Sox Won't Miss Middlebrooks

Middlebrooks seems unlikely to resurrect his career in San Diego (RantSports)

The rapidly improving Padres made another move yesterday, trading catcher Ryan Hanigan to the Boston Red Sox for third baseman Will Middlebrooks. In Hanigan, the Red Sox get a veteran catcher to replace David Ross and back up Christian Vazquez. Middlebrooks fills San Diego's third base hole left by Chase Headley, adding another righthanded power bat to a lineup that already includes righties Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, Justin Upton, Derek Norris, and Jedd Gyorko.

If the Padres are counting on Middlbebrooks to be their starting third sacker, they're going to be sorely disappointed. Given his recent struggles and injury woes, he's simply not a major league caliber third baseman, much less an everyday player. He's not the solution.

It's been a long fall from grace for Middlebrooks, who burst on the scene with a rip-roaring start to his big league career in 2012. Called up to replace an injured Kevin Youkilis, the 23 year-old hit so well that Boston traded Youkilis so he could be their everyday third baseman. One of the few bright spots in an otherwise miserable Red Sox season, Middlebrooks was hitting .288/.325/.509 when an errant Esmil Rogers fastball shattered a bone in his right hand on August 10th, ending Middlebrooks season Jim Rice-style and bid for Rookie of the Year (not that he would have won in the year of Mike Trout).

It's tempting to blame his subsequent struggles on that injury and call it a career-altering event the same way Nomar Garciaparra's 2001 wrist injury was. But a closer look reveals Middlebrooks was already in the midst of a prolonged slump, having batted just .240/.276/.416 over his previous 35 games when his season was cut short.

Middlebrooks has yet to reach the heights of his rookie season, much less deliver on the enormous promise he displayed in the first few months of his career. It didn't take long for pitchers to figure him out, and he hasn't been able to make the necessary adjustments. Middlebrooks appears to be a player, like Kevin Maas or former Red Sox Walt Dropo, who peaked as a rookie and was incapable of replicating his early success.

One of the few weak links on the 2013 World Series champs, Middlebrooks batted just .227/.271/.425 and spent much of the summer in Pawtucket following a terrible start to the season, which was compounded by a strained back. Boston's trade of Jose Iglesias gave him back the third base job, and he hit better upon his return to the big leagues (.805 OPS after the demotion compared to .617 before), only to disappear during the playoffs (.490 OPS and one RBI in 10 games), leading John Farrell to bench him in the World Series in favor of rookie phenom Xander Bogaerts.

One would have thought Middlebrooks could only improve upon his ugly sophomore campaign, but in 2014 he somehow regressed even further. He played just four games before being sidelined by a strained calf. He returned in late April, only to land back on the Disabled List three weeks later with a broken finger. When he finally made his way back at the beginning of August, he was given every opportunity to redeem himself and prove he deserved to be Boston's starting third baseman in 2015. He bombed, batting .188/.230/.236 without a home run the rest of the way (42 games).

That led the Red Sox to go out and sign Pablo Sandoval this winter, a huge upgrade over their floundering incumbent. Given Boston's ensuing logjam on the left side of the infield (they signed shortstop Hanley Ramirez despite still having Bogaerts at short), Middlebrooks became expendable. It was only a matter of time before he was dealt, and the Red Sox were lucky to find a suitor for their 26 year-old project in San Diego.

Middlebrooks's career, like many of the fly balls he hits next year, seems destined to die in Petco Park, which is even more unkind to hitters than Fenway is to pitchers. Middlebrooks has hit a mere .226/.269/.406 away from Fenway, which doesn't bode well for him or the Padres. The one thing Middlebrooks does well--hit for power--is going to be nullified by his home ballpark. As such, he's going to be a liability to a Padres club that needs all the firepower it can get in order to overcome the Dodgers and reigning World Series champs in their own division.

So if the Padres think they're going to get anything above a replacement level player out of Middlebrooks, they're terribly mistaken.

Yes, the Padres Will be Good

Upton rounds out a formidable San Diego outfield (SI)

In the three years I've been writing this blog, I could probably count the number of posts dedicated to the San Diego Padres on one hand. Welcome back to baseball relevance, San Diego.

Piggybacking off yesterday's post and my suggestion that San Diego still needed another big bat before I could call them contenders, the Padres got one in Justin Upton. San Diego swapped out four players for B.J. Upton's little brother and another player from the rapidly dismantling Braves, who appear to be punting on 2015 after trading Jason Heyward (replacing him with the perfectly average Nick Markakis) and Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins.

The Padres, who recently traded for All-Star catcher Derek Norris as well, now have one of the best-hitting outfields in baseball in Upton, Matt Kemp, and Wil Myers (though they all bat from the right side and project to be terrible defensively). That leaves them with an entire outfield's worth of reserves--Seth Smith, Will Venable, and Carlos Quentin--from which to trade, though it might be worth keeping one or two around given Kemp's age and injury history as well as Myers's inexperience.

More importantly, the Padres revamped their lineup without sacrificing much of their dynamite rotation of Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, and Odrisamer Despaigne. That they were able to acquire four big bats via trade while giving up just one of their major league-ready arms (Jesse Hahn) is remarkable, but perhaps also speaks to the stupidity of the teams they were dealing with. Given what the Dodgers, Rays, and Braves just gave up, they were well within their right to demand at least one of the aforementioned hurlers, and yet not a single one was moved. Billy Beane, who offered the worst player of San Diego's new quartet, got Hahn in return. Incredible.

I think that says something about how teams treat prospects, that simply stockpiling them is the way to go because the law of averages, right? Well the minor league washout rate is something like 83 percent, which means five out of every six prospects don't pan out. Hording prospects doesn't improve those odds. Rather than collecting players who are still in the midst of their development (guys with "upside," which is really just the "downside" of likely washing out), teams should be targeting players who have already reached the majors or are about to. They should be aiming for nearly-finished products instead of projects, quality over quantity.

Anyways, kudos to the Padres for not just keeping their rotation mostly intact, but coming out of nowhere to gear up for a playoff run in 2015. Just four wins below .500 last year in spite of a historically anemic offense, they were wise to go for it when it makes sense for most teams with a fighting chance at October to do so (thanks to improved parity and the second wild card). I think they're probably even with the Giants now, maybe even a little bit better, which means I'm putting them down for their first winning season since 2010. The division still belongs to the star-studded Dodgers, but the Padres are well-positioned to win upwards of 85 games and contend for one of the two wild card spots.

Because for the first time in a long time, the Padres are going to hit.

Will the Padres be Any Good?

Myers (pictured) and Kemp make the Padres considerably better (UTSanDiego)

Offensively, the 2014 San Diego Padres were pathetic. Among all 30 major league teams, they ranked dead last in hits, batting average, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, total bases, and, not surprisingly, runs scored. Nobody in their lineup hit more than 15 home runs, and only one player (Seth Smith) surpassed 20 doubles. Nobody who logged more than 70 plate appearances for last year's Padres batted over .270, just as nobody reached the modest totals of 60 runs or 60 RBI. And for a team with such dreadful power, San Diego did not run nearly enough, stealing just 91 bases (ninth in the NL). Unlike the Royals, they failed to overcome their lack of power by manufacturing runs.

And yet, thanks to a sneaky-good pitching staff that ranked second in the National League (and fourth in baseball) with a 3.27 ERA, San Diego finished third in the NL West at 77-85, just four wins shy of a .500 season. With a few lineup upgrades to complement their talented rotation, the Padres would be legitimate postseason contenders in 2015.

Ladies and gentlemen, enter Matt Kemp and Wil Myers, two middle-of-the-order mashers who bring some much-needed thump to San Diego's anemic lineup. Better yet, both are under team control for the next five years. Kemp, dealt by the Dodgers last week, was the 2011 NL MVP runner-up to Ryan Braun, hit 25 home runs last year, and has put up a 140 OPS+ or higher in three of the past four seasons. He's making boatloads of money, but the Dodgers are covering enough so that he'll only cost San Diego around $15 million per year.

And then there's Myers, recently netted through a blockbuster 11 player, three team swap. A product of the Royals farm system, Myers has already been traded once before, going to the Rays (for James Shields and Wade Davis), with whom he earned 2013 AL Rookie of the Year honors despite playing just 88 games. He struggled mightily in his sophomore season, losing more than 200 points off his OPS has he battled injuries and a slow start. He's yet to play more than 90 games in a big league season and must prove he's capable of holding up over a full season, but there's no denying his superstar potential.

PetCo Park is notoriously tough on hitters, but both are coming from sever pitcher's parks in Tampa Bay and Los Angeles. Kemp's numbers should be expected to decline with age (he's already 30), but one would expect Myers to match or exceed his rookie production. Their monster power plays anywhere, so 81 games at PetCo shouldn't murder their numbers (though it definitely won't help). Between them they should be good for five or six additional wins next year, maybe more if Myers really takes off.

So where does that leave the Padres? With an abundance of outfielders (I hear the Red Sox have a similar problem) and a lineup still rife with question marks (do Jedd Gyorko and Will Venable bounce back? Can Carlos Quentin stay healthy? Will Seth Smith replicate his success). They'll score more runs with Kemp and Myers aboard, but perhaps not significantly more given Kemp's age and injury history and Myers's recent struggles.

Assuming the pitching holds steady, San Diego could easily improve to .500 next year, 85 wins if everything goes right. The Dodgers and Giants are still heavy favorites to take first and second place in the division, but both have gotten weaker this offseason and could be ore vulnerable next year. The Padres aren't quite ready to overtake them, but they're definitely going in the right direction. Another big bat or proven starter would go a long way, but they've already improved considerably and it's not even Christmas.

Then again, it's not like the Padres lineup could have gotten any worse.

Dodgers Deal Kemp

The Dodgers were smart to unload Kemp and his giant contract (FoxSports)

The Los Angeles Dodgers finally found someone willing to take Matt Kemp off their hands, and surprisingly it was the San Diego Padres, who have never been known for their willingness to acquire big name talent. Thus ends the endless speculation about Kemp being traded (for now).

The punchless Padres desperately need offense and star power, and Kemp provides a healthy dose of both. Had he played for San Diego last year, he easily would have been their best hitter as well as their highest paid player. A two-time All-Star and Gold Glover, the Padres haven't had a position player as gifted as Kemp since Adrian Gonzalez (excluding Chase Headley's monster 2012).

Problem is, Kemp's not a superstar anymore, even though he's still being paid like one. He's been worth just four bWAR in the past three seasons combined, two of which were cut short by injury. He's still a great hitter (140 OPS+ last year), but can't run like he used to and can't field like he used to. At 30 years old, he might already be on his way down, despite having five years and $107 million remaining on his contract. Playing half his games at Petco only figures to accelerate that decline.

The Dodgers haven't spent their money wisely lately, but kudos to them for getting out from under Kemp's contract, which was doomed to become a Vernon Wells-esque albatross. The $32 million they still have to pay isn't even a third of what would've been required to keep him around, and is well worth the added roster and payroll flexibility. For instance, moving Kemp clears up their surplus of high-priced outfielders, allowing them to go forward with Carl Crawford, Yasiel Puig, and Andre Ethier. It also frees up some funds should they choose to pursue a big ticket starting pitcher like Max Scherzer or James Shields.

This trade comes on the heels of another trade for the Dodgers, the one that brought Jimmy Rollins over from Philadelphia. Rollins remained effective at age 35 last year, worth 3.9 bWAR with 17 home runs, 28 steals in 34 attempts, and decent defense at short. So long as he doesn't fall off a cliff, he should be a solid replacement for the recently departed Hanley Ramirez.

The Great Tony Gwynn

Gwynn pictured here with his son, Tony Gwynn, Jr. (MSN FoxSports)

With today's passing of Tony Gwynn, the baseball community has lost one of its great all-time hitters. At 54 he was taken from us much too soon.

In a Hall of Fame career that spanned 20 seasons, Gwynn made his mark as one of the game's greatest pure hitters. Not just of his generation, but of all-time.

Though Gwynn's numbers were consistently excellent from start to finish (his OPS+ never fell below 105), his career can be neatly divided into two halves, with four batting titles in each and his age-30 season as the dividing line. In the first half he was like Ichiro Suzuki, winning batting titles, stealing bases, and earning Gold Gloves for his stellar defense in right field. Gwynn's first nine seasons, seven of which were full, match up closely with Ichiro's first seven in the United States.

Gwynn 1982-1990: 5,156 PA  1,531 H  2,021 TB  238 SB .329/.385/.435  38.2 bWAR
Suzuki 2001-2007:  5,180 PA  1,592 H  2,084 TB  272 SB .333/.379/.437  40.9 bWAR

In the second half Gwynn was still a great player, just different. Age, injuries, and an expanding waist-line slowed him down. His speed evaporated, and with it his defense and baserunning prowess. The Gold Gloves stopped coming--he won his fifth and final at 31--and his days of prolific stolen base totals were over.

Gwynn 1991-2001: 5,076 PA  1,610 H  2,238 TB  81 SB .347/.392/.483  30.6 bWAR

His hitting, however, only got better. A career .327/.381/.433 hitter through age 32, he was a .358/.400/.500 hitter over his final nine seasons. He also ramped up his power, more than doubling his home run rate from one dinger every 96.6 at-bats to one every 47.2 at-bats. After hitting more than seven home runs only once in his first dozen seasons, Gwynn did so five times in his last six full seasons. In this regard he was like Paul Molitor, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds--a terrific hitter to the end.

Another way Gwynn improved was by trimming his already anemic strikeout rate. He'd always been difficult to strike out, but fanning him became almost impossible during the second half of his career. Starting at age 30, Gwynn exceeded 20 strikeouts in a season only twice in his final 12 seasons, with 23 in 1990 and a whopping 28 in 1997, the year he set personal bests in doubles, home runs, RBI, and total bases. In his first nine seasons he whiffed a little more than 5.7 percent of the time, but from 1990-2001 he struck out in fewer than 3.9 percent of his at-bats.

Like all true masters of their craft, Gwynn only got better with experience. After his 54 game debut in 1982, Gwynn never again batted below .309, setting a National League record by bettering .300 in 19 consecutive seasons. As a hitter, he peaked in his mid-to-late 30s, when most players are on their way down. Over the five-year period from 1993 through 1997, when Gwynn was between 33 and 37, he had the most hits, highest average and third-most doubles in baseball. Gwynn batted .368/.412/.508, outhitting the next closest player (Mike Piazza) by 31 points as he ripped off four straight batting titles. His strong second act lifted his career average to .338, the highest of any player who debuted after 1940 and tied with Jesse Burkett and Nap Lajoie for 18th on the all-time list.

Gwynn, like Pete Rose and Rod Carew before him, made up for his lack of power with superb bat control and a knack for finding holes in the defense (or, in the words of Wee Willie Keeler, hitting 'em where they ain't). An elite contact hitter, he was an artist with the bat. His eight batting championships--only Ty Cobb won more--are a testament to that. He topped .370 three times, going as high as .394 in the strike-shortened 1994 campaign, and eclipsed .350 four other times. He collected 3,141 hits over his 20 seasons, 19th most all-time, and led the league seven times (surpassed only by Cobb's eight hit titles).

Though Gwynn never won a Most Valuable Player award or a World Series ring, he was not at a loss for hardware. A 15-time All-Star, the lifelong San Diego Padre (and greatest player in franchise history, I might add) represented the National League every year but one from 1984 through 1999. He received seven Silver Sluggers despite never hitting more than 17 home runs in any season. Like Wade Boggs, he was not a good defender when he first started, but worked hard to turn himself into an above average fielder. People noticed, and rewarded his efforts with five Gold Gloves.

Incredibly popular, Gwynn sailed into the Hall of Fame in 2007 alongside Cal Ripken Jr. with 97.6 percent of the vote, polling better than other all-time greats such as Rickey Henderson, Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, Mike Schmidt, and even the great Willie Mays. That goes to show just how well-liked and appreciated Gwynn was. Captain Video was more studious and serious about the craft of hitting than any player except Ted Williams, but unlike Williams knew where to draw the line. Gwynn was one of the nicest guys in the game and a true class act: friendly, jovial, always smiling.

So as tragic as Gwynn's premature passing from cancer is, it gives us reason to pause and reflect on his truly remarkable career. Given how highly respected he was during life, I have no doubts that Gwynn will continue to be appreciated and remembered fondly in death. Rest in Peace, Tony.

Gyorko Gets Extension

Gyorko's elite power compensates for his deficiencies in other areas of the game (RantSports)

Padres second baseman Jedd Gyorko received a six-year, $35 million contract extension today that will take effect immediately. The deal, which makes Gyorko a cornerstone of San Diego's lineup through the rest of the decade, is the third-largest for a player with just one year of service time after Andrelton Simmons and Ryan Braun. It buys out his first year of free agency and also includes a club option for the seventh year/his second free agent year (2020--his age 31 season) priced at $13 million.

The Padres were quick to extend Gyorko, who made his big league debut last Opening Day. Though he's off to a slow start this year with a .531 OPS through his first 12 games, the 25 year-old appears to have a bright future after his strong 2013 campaign. His 23 home runs led the team and ranked second among MLB second baseman (behind Robinson Cano's 27) and was the third-most in big league history by a rookie second baseman, trailing Dan Uggla's 27 with the Marlins in 2006 and Joe Gordon's 25 for the Yankees in 1938.

That power outburst (he also socked 26 doubles), made even more impressive by the facct that Gyorko plays half his games at the power-sapping Petco Park, helped him finish sixth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting, ahead of Nolan Arenado and Evan Gattis but behind the quintet of Jose Fernandez, Yasiel Puig, Shelby Miller, Hyun-jin Ryu and Julio Teheran. Had he not missed 30 games to a groin injury, he may have reached 30 home runs and finished higher in the voting. As it is, he still managed to lead all rookies in home runs, OBP, and SLG. He also became the first rookie second baseman in baseball history to lead his team in RBI (with 63).

Gyorko's power is obvious but he is far from a finished product, or a complete ballplayer, for that matter. For starters, he doesn't contribute much defensively or on the basepaths (just one steal). His .249/.301/.444 batting line was not particularly impressive, though it still produced an OPS that was 13 percent better than average when adjusted for league and park. His plate discipline is also an issue as he whiffed 123 times while drawing just 32 unintentional walks last year, a nearly 4:1 ratio that has carried over into this season (16/4 K/BB) and is reminiscent of the figures Will Middlebrooks posted in his rookie season (which was followed by a brutal sophomore slump). Gyorko proved to be a streaky hitter last year, with 15 of his home runs coming after August 1st, and will likely remain one if he doesn't adopt a more patient plate approach. But seeing as how Gyorko's already in his prime at 25, he doesn't figure to get much better, but it's reasonable to expect he might become more disciplined as he gains more experience.

Regardless, 30-homer potential at the keystone position is almost unheard of and makes Gyorko pretty valuable. FanGraphs estimates he was worth 2.5 fWAR last year in approximately three-quarters of a season (125 games), so it's certainly possible that he'll be a 3-4 win player if he manages to play a whole season. Even if he holds steady at around two wins per season, that's still more than enough to justify his $6 million AAV. Gyorko will provide great value and offense for the Padres, an organization that craves both.

Perhaps more importantly, Gyorko also acts as an insurance policy for Chase Headley, who's in his walk year and may leave as a free agent following this season. Gyorko manned the hot corner in the minors and would have no problem shifting over to third should Headley leave (I have a feeling he will).

In the meantime, Gyorko will continue to provide big-time pop from a premium position, and that's plenty valuable enough.

Kyle Blanks Breaking Out (Again)

By now, most baseball fans are familiar with the rollercoaster of a career arc experienced by Alex Gordon. Hailed as the next George Brett, Gordon ripped up minor league pitching but failed to satisfy those lofty expectations once he reached the majors. After four frustrating seasons with Kansas City, Gordon finally broke through in 2011 and has since settled into one of baseball's best (and most underrated) outfielders.

Gordon's come to epitomize the post-hype sleeper, a player who attracted lots of attention early in his career and eventually realized his talent, but only after injuries/subpar performance sidetracked his career and caused people to forget about (or even give up) on him.

Chris Davis is one such player. Kyle Blanks is another.

Drafted by the San Diego Padres in the 42nd round (1,241st overall) of the 2004 draft, then 17 year-old Blanks didn't make much of an impression. Like most teenagers, he was raw, unpolished, and inexperienced. Even so, he excelled in the minor leagues, becoming the Padres top prospect after being named the organization's Minor League Player of the Year in 2008. The following year he was promoted to the Show on June 19th when Cliff Floyd went on the Disabled List, never to play again.

It took the 22 year-old a month to get his feet wet before he exploded. From July 21st onward he batted .296/.389/.653 with 10 home runs in 113 plate appearances before plantar fasciitis ended his power binge and his season on August 28th.

Accordingly, expectations were high for Blanks in 2010. He was installed as the club's cleanup hitter behind Adrian Gonzalez and homered on Opening Day, but his season only went south from there as pitchers began exploiting the holes in his swing. The strikeouts piled up and his batting average plunged below the Mendoza Line. Six weeks into the season, his year was mercifully cut short by elbow reconstruction surgery.

Blanks began 2011 on the Disabled List and didn't return to the majors until July 22nd. He hit well in August (.890 OPS) but went homerless in September. Despite his horrendous finish to the season, he could feel good about cutting his strikeout rate from 38.3 percent to 26.8 percent.

With his re-tooled approach, there was hope Blanks would make good on his promise in 2012. His body did not cooperate, however, and he appeared in only four games before tearing the labrum in his left (nonthrowing) shoulder.

Free of the burdens that weighed down his first few seasons and finally healthy, Banks has come back strong. He played well during spring training, only to find there was no room for him on the big league roster with Yonder Alonso holding down first base and Carlos Quentin patrolling left field. He didn't have to wait long for the opportunity to prove himself, though. In mid-April Quentin got suspended for his role in a fight, opening up space for Blanks. An injury to Cameron Maybin gave him additional job security and allowed him to play everyday.

After a slow start he's hit his stride; since the calendar flipped to June he's belted five home runs, knocked in 13 runs and compiled a 1.003 OPS, moving his batting line up to .282/.362/.507 on the year. His strikeout rate is all the way down to 21.5 percent--easily the best mark of his career. At 26 the hulking slugger seems to have finally figured it out and should be a major offensive force for the Padres going forward.