Analyzing Harper's Hot Start

Harper's having a tremendous start to the season (Zimbio)

Bryce Harper was at it again yesterday, going 3-for-4 with a triple and home run in Washington's 10-5 rout of the San Diego Padres.  The blast, Harper's NL-leading 14th of the year, was also his ninth in the past dozen days. And while he fell a double short of the cycle, the big day raised his batting line to a Ruthian .338/.476/.729 (221 OPS+).

Granted, we're not even a quarter of the way through the season yet, but it's impossible not to marvel at what Harper's done thus far. He's put the Nationals' slumping lineup on his back, accounting for one-third of the team's home runs and driving in a major-league leading 37 runs. Opponents have pitched around him, intentionally walking him five times already and 36 overall (both lead the majors), but that hasn't stopped him from inflicting major damage on the few strikes he does see.

Harper went yard on Opening Day and hasn't stopped hitting since. Following a strong April in which he posted a .985 OPS, he's been even better thus far in May with nine home runs, 22 RBI, and 14 walks with two weeks to go before the calendar flips to June. His OPS for the month currently stands at an astronomical 1.511.

Harper's been the best hitter in baseball over the first six weeks, and thus appears to have become the superstar he was always destined to be. After three years of coming up short in comparisons to Mike Trout, baseball's other wunderkind, Harper has finally ascended to Trout's level. Right now it's Harper, not Trout, who currently leads all of baseball in refWAR.

There's a lot of interesting trends going on with Harper's hellacious start. The first is his walk rate, which has ballooned to over 21 percent--more than double his career 10.4 percent mark coming into the year. A lot of that has to do with how poorly the Nationals not named Harper and Denard Span have hit, but at the same time Harper's also exhibited improved patience and strike zone knowledge in his fourth big league campaign. His overall swing rate is the lowest of his career, as he's been much more selective on pitches both in and out of the zone.

His batted ball data also reveals major shifts from his first three seasons, starting with his spray charts. Harper's pulled over half the balls he's put in play this year, after never having done so on even 40 percent of his batted balls in any prior season. He's using center field about the same, meaning he's going the other way a lot less often. This shift helps explains Harper's massive power surge, as players rarely hit to the opposite field with power and tend to pull the majority of their home runs.

Harper has also become a different hitter in terms of how he elevates the ball. He's become much more of a fly ball hitter, hitting more fly balls than grounders for the first time in his career. That would also explain why his power numbers are through the roof, and should help them stay up even as his 34.1 percent HR/FB inevitably falls back to earth. Impressively, he's managed to loft the ball much more frequently without increasing his pop-out rate, which is just a tick below his career rate.

Harper's also hitting more line drives than ever before, which helps explain how he's been able to bat .383 on balls in play despite lifting almost half those balls into the air. With FanGraphs classifying nearly one-quarter of his batted balls as line drives, it's no wonder that he's flashing the highest hard-hit percentage of his career, either, with two-fifths of his batted balls qualifying as such.

So what does all of this mean? Harper, the age of a typical college graduate, is still improving. He's walking more (a lot more), striking out less, and hitting the ball with authority. Luck has absolutely played a part in his hot start--that home run rate and BABiP are bound to fall--but Harper has proven himself to be a demonstrably better hitter. His increased patience is indicative of a maturing player, while his superior results on swings suggest he's honing in on pitches he can crush. It's plain for all to see that Harper is locked in, which is always a sight to behold when a player with his unlimited ability develops the right approach to complement it.

The last few years there was no doubt about who the best player in baseball was. Now it's very much up for debate.

Brady Busted

Brady, who has not missed a game since 2008, will sit out the first four of 2015 (EW)

In America you are innocent until proven guilty, but not in the NFL.

The New England Patriots were severely punished for their role in Deflategate, which was finally put to rest with today's punitive actions. Tom Brady, who according to the Wells reports (I'm paraphrasing here) "probably knew something about the balls being deflated," was suspended four games and will spend September watching his equally handsome backup, Jimmy Garoppolo, cut his teeth under center. As if that weren't bad enough, his team was fined $1 million and must also forfeit next year's first round draft pick as well as a fourth-round pick (so random) in 2017.

This is an obvious show of force by Roger Goodell, who handled all of last year's scandals with about as much care as a toddler would with a full carton of eggs. After drawing heavy fire from fans and media for being too lenient in punishing Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson, he overcompensated by drawing a line with the Patriots (reminiscent of how Bud Selig went after Alex Rodriguez). Goodell sees being tough on the Pats as a quick fix for his shattered reputation, and an easy one at that given how universally reviled they are outside New England for their previous infractions.

The Patriots effectively got screwed for the next three years, and that hardly seems fair given how speculative the Wells report actually was. Most of the evidence against Brady and co. was circumstantial at best, pure conjecture at worst. The report lacked the concrete evidence one would want for a conviction, especially since scientists quickly debunked Deflategate. Like Oliver Stone's JFK, the paper made some damning claims without backing them up with, you know, facts.

Lack of sound basis aside, this is obviously a huge blow to the Patriots, who will have to face Pittsburgh, Buffalo on the road, Jacksonville, and Dallas on the road without their franchise signal-caller. It's a very real possibility that New England is 1-3 when Brady returns, which would put them in an even bigger hole than their terrible start last year. The defending Super Bowl champs are still the best team in their division and should have no problem making the playoffs (unless Brady balloons during his layoff the way Pablo Sandoval did last winter), but reclaiming the AFC's top seed now appears out of the question.

Given that Brady's going to be 38 next year, it's probably a good thing that he'll get an extra month of rest at the beginning of the season, especially after seeing what happened in the second half last year to Peyton Manning at the same age. Brady needs all the recovery time he can get at this stage in his career, and I'm more than okay with him sitting out September if it keeps him fresh in January.

Still, the harshness of these penalties leave me with more questions than answers. I wonder if Brady's suspension would have been less harsh had just come clean during that awkward press conference. I also wonder how the punishment would have differed had New England lost the Super Bowl. Malcolm Butler may have saved the day, but at the same time might have inadvertantly hurt his team down the road. The league loves making an example out of the Pats whenever they got caught for doing the same things everyone else admits to doing, and what better way to send a message than by dinging the top team in the league.

And is it really just a coincidence that Brady's first game back will be against, who else, the Indianapolis Colts? Let the conspiracy theories begin.

In Defense of Juan Nieves

Nieves was the first casualty of Boston's miserable start (Boston Herald)

It's not even Mother's Day, and heads are already starting to roll in Boston.

The Red Sox reacted to their slow start Thursday by firing pitching coach Juan Nieves, who had filled the role for the past two-plus seasons. Boston actually pitched pretty well under his watch until Ben Cherington tore up its rotation last summer.

This was the kind of knee-jerk reaction you see all the time from slumping ballclubs. It's a lot easier, after all, to remake a coaching staff than it is a roster. That Nieves was canned so early in the season hardly seems fair, especially since he was only given a month of games to break in four new starting pitchers.

Everyone can see that rotation is the problem, not Nieves. The Red Sox aren't struggling because Nieves wasn't doing his job: they're struggling because their rotation is just as bad as many feared it would be.

That much was evident last night and today, as the Blue Jays pounded the Sox for seven runs in each game. Granted, Toronto has a terrific lineup even without Jose Reyes at the top of it, but conventional wisdom holds that good pitching can take care of good hitting. Boston does not have a single good pitcher right now.

And who's fault is that? Certainly not Juan Nieves. No, the person really to blame here is Ben Cherington, who blew up what was actually a pretty good rotation last year (Boston's lineup was the problem) and assembled in its place the franchise's first ace-less rotation since 1997, the year after Roger Clemens and before Pedro Martinez. Since then the Sox have always had clear number ones; Curt Schilling, Josh Beckett, and Jon Lester--none of whom are walking through that clubhouse door.

Lester could and should still be here, had Cherington not failed to re-sign him, traded him, then failed to re-sign him again. It doesn't matter that Lester hasn't pitched well this year; he's still better than anyone currently in the Red Sox rotation. So are James Shields, Cole Hamels, and Max Scherzer, all of whom were readily available but none of whom Boston acquired.

So for the first time in almost 20 years Boston began the season without a clear-cut ace, and so far the results have been utterly disastrous. The Red Sox currently sport the worst rotation ERA in baseball, which if sustained would be their worst in franchise history as well. Sox starters are putting the team in early holes and failing to pitch deep into games, putting extra pressure on a scuffling offense and taxing the bullpen. What appeared to be a most-pedestrian staff on paper has been getting shellacked on a nightly basis, sinking the Sox to last-place in the AL East.

Contrary to what Cherington has said but hopefully doesn't actually believe, an aceless rotation comprised of back-end starters was never going to cut it in the AL East, especially not at Fenway. Boston's purported ace and Opening Day starter, Clay Buchholz, has been manhandled to the tune of a 6.03 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Wade Miley's been even worse, seeing his ERA rise to 6.91 after getting lit up by Toronto last night. Justin Masterson has not bounced back as hoped. Today's victim, Joe Kelly, has made it abundantly clear that he's a relief pitcher forced into a starting role. Rick Porcello, recent recipient of a  (undeserved) four-year, $82.5 million extension, has been the best of the bunch with a 4.38 ERA. When your best pitcher has an ERA well over four, you're in big trouble.

Boston's woes are hardly surprising given each pitcher's suspect track record. Buchholz was terrible last year and has been erratic in the past. Masterson was also a mess last year. Miley's been getting steadily worse since he became a full-time starter, a trend that seems unlikely to reverse itself now that he's in the American League. Joe Kelly's never made 20 starts or pitched 125 innings in a major league season, and of Porcello's six full seasons as a starter, only one produced an ERA below 3.95. The best pitching coach in the world wouldn't be able to do much with that, and I wouldn't expect Nieves's replacement, Carl Willis, to do any better.

I guess this is a longwinded way of saying that Juan Nieves shouldn't be out of a job. If anyone, it should be the guy who put together that POS rotation.

NL April All-Stars

Gonzalez leads a crowded field at first base (Huffington Post)

All stats through May 1 unless otherwise noted. Scroll down to see my AL team.

C Derek Norris
Gave a lot of thought to A.J. Pierzynski, who's currently hitting above .400, but went with Norris because he's played almost twice as many games and has still been really good. With just two walks to his named this year, Norris hasn't shown any of the patience that helped him to a .361 OBP last season, but he's made up for that by cracking 10 doubles and batting .329.

1B Adrian Gonzalez
As great as Paul Goldschmidt's been, Gonzalez has been a little better. His eight homers and 65 total bases lead the National League, while his .765 slugging, 1.189 OPS, and 228 OPS+ are tops in the majors. Simply put, those are videogame numbers. Sincere apologies to Joey Votto and Anthony Rizzo as well.

2B Dee Gordon
The Marlins' new second baseman and leadoff man is playing out of his mind right now, with a major league-leading 41 hits and .423 batting average. Incredible, none of those hits have cleared the fences and only six have gone for extra bases, so Gordon's currently pulling the rare trick of batting above .400 but slugging below .500. He does have nine steals, but those have been counterbalanced by his six caught-stealing attempts.

3B Matt Carpenter
Carpenter continues to excel in his role as the catalyst of the Cardinals offense, batting an obscene .378/.446/.656 with 21 runs scored and an ML-leading 14 doubles. His sizzling start his him on track for a similar season to the MVP-caliber one he enjoyed two years ago.

SS Troy Tulowitzki
Hasn't been able to replicate his ferocious start from a year ago but still had a great April, hitting .308/.321/.526 with 11 doubles. Tulo has only two home runs so far, but the power will come so long as he's healthy.

OF Giancarlo Stanton
Stanton's picked up right where he left off last year, slashing .282/.378/.588 with six bombs and a league-leading 22 RBI.

OF Bryce Harper
Harper's light-tower power has already produced five home runs, but it's his new and improved batting eye that's drawn attention. His .433 OBP has been fueled by 23 walks--most in the bigs. He's also stayed healthy, appearing in all two dozen of Washington's games. If he can stay off the disabled list, this could be the year he finally breaks out and becomes the superstar he was pre-ordained to be.

OF Matt Kemp
Petco hasn't put a dent in Kemp's numbers, as the 30 year-old is batting a healthy .330/.359/.474 with 10 extra base hits, 14 RBI, and four steals in four attempts. Only one home run so far, but I wouldn't worry given that he's topped 20 in five of the past six seasons.

Harvey has regained his form since returning from TJ surgery (CBS New York)

SP Matt Harvey
Harvey has returned from Tommy John surgery just as dominant as he was before the procedure, going 5-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. His 8.5 K/BB ratio is unreal.

SP Johnny Cueto
Last year's NL Cy Young runner-up and free agent-to-be is setting himself up for a giant payday. The Reds ace is leading the majors in innings and WHIP with more than a strikeout per inning, not to mention a 1.95 ERA.

SP Gerrit Cole
Cole appears to have taken the leap to acehood based on his 1.76 ERA and 10.3 K/9 mark through his first five starts.

SP Zack Greinke
Greinke's become something of an afterthought while sharing the same rotation with Clayton Kershaw, but he's having a fabulous season in his own right with a 1.93 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

SP Max Scherzer
1-3 record aside, my preseason NL Cy Young pick is making me look good with his league-leading 1.26 ERA and 1.93 FIP.

RP Tony Watson
In line to become the Pirates closer if and when Mark Melancon stumbles, Watson's been lights-out with a 2.51 ERA and 0.77 WHIP out of Pittsburgh's 'pen.

CL Aroldis Chapman
Cincinnati's flamethrowing closer has yet to allow an earned run in 11 appearances and currently sports a 16 K/9 rate. Need I say more?

AL April All-Stars

Vogt may not be an All-Star come July, but right now he is (Bay Area Sports Guy)

Even though the All-Star Game is still more than two months away, voting for this year's midsummer classic is already underway. I'm holding off until the last possible second to determine who's truly worthy of All-Star recognition, but if I had to pick my American League All-Star team right now these are the players I'd choose. All stats are through May 1 unless otherwise noted.

C Stephen Vogt
Another A's late-bloomer, Vogt's been the best-hitting backstop in baseball to date with his impressive .348/.432/.594 slash line and 16 RBI. He's already almost halfway to last year's home run and RBI totals, and will keep getting plenty of chances to add to those totals now that he's no longer splitting time with Derek Norris. Also considered Salvador Perez.

1B Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera's cooled a bit since his monster first week, but he still  concluded April with a .373/.465/.627 batting line to go along with five home runs and 17 RBI. Those are the kind of numbers we're used to seeing from the two-time MVP.

2B Devon Travis
Really close call between him and Jose Altuve, though I was ultimately swayed by Travis's superior power totals and slash line. The 24 year-old rookie has been a revelation at the keystone for Toronto, batting .325/.393/.625 with six home runs and 19 RBI--both tops at the position. He started the season batting ninth but has quickly been moved up to the top of the order, where he figures to stay with Jose Reyes sidelined by a cracked rib.

3B Josh Donaldson
Donaldson's continued to post MVP-type numbers north of the border, hitting .330/.390/.585 with six taters and an AL-leading 20 runs entering play today, all while providing his typically excellent defense at the hot corner.
SS

OF Hanley Ramirez
Hanley's gotten off to a huge start with the Red Sox, clubbing 10 home runs and driving in 22 runs while slashing .293/.341/.659 for the month of April. Only Nelson Cruz has more long balls and ribbies than HanRam, who's currently on pace for close to 80 and 170. Hanley has a better chance of keeping his helmet on.

OF Mike Trout
Trout's continued doing all the things that make him the best player in baseball, namely hit the tar out of the ball (.325/.439/.588) while making an impact on the bases (6-for-6 in stolen base attempts) and in center field. He's also leading the league in runs scored--something he did in each of the past three years as well.

OF Adam Jones
Jones was out of his mind in April, batting .400/.440/.707 with five homers, 19 RBI, and 17 runs scored. The current AL batting leader is walking more and striking out less than last year, which is always a good sign. I could nitpick by mentioning that he's still searching for his first stolen base and hasn't homered in two weeks, but otherwise his offensive production has been near-flawless.

DH Nelson Cruz
If you thought Safeco was going to harm Cruz's power numbers, think again. All he's done is hit more home runs, piled up more total bases, and drive in more runs than anyone else in baseball. He's also leading the American League with his .747 slugging, 1.125 OPS, and 215 OPS+. Last year's major league home run king still has a firm grasp on his throne for now.

Hernandez has remained has dominant as ever (Fox Sports)

SP Felix Hernandez
Hernandez is still the king with a perfect 4-0 record, 1.82 ERA, and 36 strikeouts against only six walks. Think maybe he's got something to prove after losing last year's Cy Young race to Corey Kluber?

SP Chris Archer
Archer appears to have taken the next step after a pair of solid seasons, elevating himself to ace status in the early going. In addition to leading the league in strikeouts with 37, he also holds a 0.84 ERA and has not allowed an earned run since his first start of the season.

SP Dallas Keuchel
Not only has the southpaw proved last year's breakout was no fluke, but he's also been arguably the best pitcher in baseball this year. He currently leads the majors in WHIP, H/9, HR/9, and innings pitched. He's not allowed a home run yet and has surrendered just three earned runs in 37 innings of work. Regression is coming, as he's not this good, but the talent level he displayed last year appears legit.

SP Scott Kazmir
The born-again lefty is off to a sensational start with a 1.62 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and over a strikeout per inning.

SP Sonny Gray
Gray has built off last season's success with a 1.98 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Although his strikeout rate has tumbled to 6.2 K/9, he's compensated by cutting his walks rate in half.

RP Dellin Betances
The Yankees setup man has done a terrific job in the early going, not allowing an earned run despite leading the loop in appearances. He's already racked up 21 strikeouts in 13 and 1/3 innings to complement his 1.05 WHIP and 1.82 FIP. He's been a bit wild, walking eight batters and uncorking a pair of wild pitches, but those are minor blemishes on an otherwise spotless track record.

CL Andrew Miller
There was some uncertainty over who would be the Yankees closer this year, but it appears Joe Girardi made the right call by going with Miller/slotting Betances to eighth inning duties. The towering reliever has converted all nine of his save opportunities (most in the AL) and has yet to allow an earned run yet this year. He's also been blowing hitters away with 21 strikeouts in 12 and 1/3 innings, notching at least one K in all of his appearances. Carrying a 0.57 WHIP into today's action, he's been untouchable.